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Author Topic: In 2012, bitcoin remained at roughly $5 for four months  (Read 1140 times)
jehst
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June 01, 2015, 02:32:57 AM
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This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

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June 01, 2015, 02:42:01 AM
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So do you believe history is going to repeat, but this time the $230-250 range? Four months isn't a very long time, I wouldn't be surprised if this stability lasts much longer.  Moments of little or low volatility have previously been followed by big moves (https://btcvol.info/)

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June 01, 2015, 02:58:25 AM
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So do you believe history is going to repeat, but this time the $230-250 range? Four months isn't a very long time, I wouldn't be surprised if this stability lasts much longer.  Moments of little or low volatility have previously been followed by big moves (https://btcvol.info/)

I think the longer that we stay in this range, the more people will feel that ~152 was the bottom and the more likely people will feel that this is a fair price. The more people believe this is a fair price, the less likely we are to go below it.

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June 01, 2015, 03:07:41 AM
 #4

People said that the price wasn't moving back when the BTC price was $600 or so in June last year and were proven wrong after the price suddenly tumbled a few months later. Then people said that the price wasn't moving when it was at $450 for a couple of months as well before it tumbled again.

Example:

One of the distinguishing characteristics of Bitcoin is that it is extremely volatile. This has always been the case until the past few weeks when the price seems to have stabilized in the 400-600 USD region. Of course such a wide range would still be considered extremely volatile if Bitcoin was compared to fiat currencies but do you think that Bitcoin is in the beginning stages of finally converging onto a stable price? Or do you think that there will be more bubbles and crashes in the future?

Link: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=621909

Then it was in the $300's in late last year and the same thing happened... And now it's been hovering in the $200's range... Sad

I think 2012 was the best year for Bitcoin. The big crash of 2011 from $33 to $3 drove all the speculators away which resulted in the price increasing in a gradual way from $5 to $13 as opposed to a series of spikes and crashes. Development was still very active, services were being developed, and new people were still entering the BTC community. I used to think that 2013 was the best year for Bitcoin because the price exploded so much in that year but in retrospect, for such a huge price increase to happen so early on in its development was far too premature and I would have preferred a gradual price increase like the one we saw in 2012 instead.

An earlier post of mine that's kinda related:

I blame the bubbles. What would have worked well is for Bitcoin to have gradually gained interest and mainstream adoption. Then the price would reflect this growing demand and the market cap would increase at a steadily rate that would have made the inflation irrelevant. Look at what happened in 2012 as an example. Bitcoin slowly appreciated in price in a sensible manner. Instead what we got were a series of bubbles, bear markets, and butthurt "investors". Bitcoin isn't the problem. We are.

Link: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=921887.msg10125646#msg10125646
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June 01, 2015, 03:26:39 AM
 #5

After so many fakeouts, we may need an even more convincing and obvious bottom(ing process).

Maybe instead of 4 months in this range, we may need 1 year in this range.

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June 01, 2015, 07:45:30 AM
 #6

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

yeah but it was in the same range for many other month, basically from late 2011 to all the 2012 until the halving, so something much worse than now, compared to that time the current price stagnancy is still a joke

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June 01, 2015, 07:57:35 AM
 #7

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

yeah but it was in the same range for many other month, basically from late 2011 to all the 2012 until the halving, so something much worse than now, compared to that time the current price stagnancy is still a joke

The period of price stagnancy that immediately followed the June 2011 crash lasted for about 1.5 years from a low of $2-3 in October 2011 to $5 in the beginning of 2012 and $13 by the end of 2012. After 2013, the price started increasing fairly quickly and reached $265 in April 2013. The range ($2 to $13) is comparable to the range between November 2013 and today ($1,300 to $200) so volatility-wise, things back then weren't that much different compared with today.
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June 01, 2015, 09:14:37 AM
 #8

people seem to make themself happy with believing history will repeat. bitcoin back then and bitcoin right now is so much different. eventually it will go up with the block halving as result. so yes, at some point this "stability" will end, and we'll move forward.
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June 01, 2015, 09:20:19 AM
 #9

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

 (mathematically)unstable currency ->(tends to) stable currency

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June 01, 2015, 09:53:45 AM
 #10

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

 (mathematically)unstable currency ->(tends to) stable currency

(physically) the entropy of all systems tends to disorder

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June 01, 2015, 11:52:40 AM
 #11

Those were indeed fun times (MtGox / Dwolla) days. I remember ordering more 6950s.



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June 01, 2015, 11:56:43 AM
 #12

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

 (mathematically)unstable currency ->(tends to) stable currency

(physically) the entropy of all systems tends to disorder

(physically) the entropy or universe remains constant or increase never decrease..lol...but our increase..

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jehst
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June 01, 2015, 12:16:50 PM
 #13

Well it seems we're already out of the range and falling.


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June 01, 2015, 01:18:48 PM
 #14

I wonder if there is a psychological difference between changes to single digit prices vs. changes to triple digit prices even when the volatility (as measured in terms of percentage) remains the same. If the BTC price moved from $2.50 to $2.35, it might not seem like a huge shift in terms of volatility. However, a movement from $250 to $235 might seem more significant even though the impact to someone who has $1,000 invested into BTC would be identical (-$60).

people seem to make themself happy with believing history will repeat. bitcoin back then and bitcoin right now is so much different. eventually it will go up with the block halving as result. so yes, at some point this "stability" will end, and we'll move forward.

It is different, but there are also some similarities between the two as well. Both periods occurred immediately after a massive bubble and when interest in Bitcoin was at a low point. In the case with the June 2011 bubble, the bear market only lasted for a few months before creeping back up again. The current bear market has lasted for 20 months and shows no signs of stopping. Sad
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June 01, 2015, 01:29:45 PM
 #15

The past is no guidance to the future, especially when it comes to bitcoins. We are on the death-march to zero, don't forget.

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June 01, 2015, 03:36:23 PM
 #16

People said that the price wasn't moving back when the BTC price was $600 or so in June last year and were proven wrong after the price suddenly tumbled a few months later. Then people said that the price wasn't moving when it was at $450 for a couple of months as well before it tumbled again.

Example:

One of the distinguishing characteristics of Bitcoin is that it is extremely volatile. This has always been the case until the past few weeks when the price seems to have stabilized in the 400-600 USD region. Of course such a wide range would still be considered extremely volatile if Bitcoin was compared to fiat currencies but do you think that Bitcoin is in the beginning stages of finally converging onto a stable price? Or do you think that there will be more bubbles and crashes in the future?

Link: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=621909

Then it was in the $300's in late last year and the same thing happened... And now it's been hovering in the $200's range... Sad

I think 2012 was the best year for Bitcoin. The big crash of 2011 from $33 to $3 drove all the speculators away which resulted in the price increasing in a gradual way from $5 to $13 as opposed to a series of spikes and crashes. Development was still very active, services were being developed, and new people were still entering the BTC community. I used to think that 2013 was the best year for Bitcoin because the price exploded so much in that year but in retrospect, for such a huge price increase to happen so early on in its development was far too premature and I would have preferred a gradual price increase like the one we saw in 2012 instead.

An earlier post of mine that's kinda related:

I blame the bubbles. What would have worked well is for Bitcoin to have gradually gained interest and mainstream adoption. Then the price would reflect this growing demand and the market cap would increase at a steadily rate that would have made the inflation irrelevant. Look at what happened in 2012 as an example. Bitcoin slowly appreciated in price in a sensible manner. Instead what we got were a series of bubbles, bear markets, and butthurt "investors". Bitcoin isn't the problem. We are.

Link: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=921887.msg10125646#msg10125646

There has never been a stability as long as the 200 besides the 5 USD one. From now on is smooth sailing on the 200 territory for a long time before the next floor is established after an huge pump. Of course, we'll have dips along the way, for example, people panicking about blocksize and whatnot. Meanwhile mainstream media has no idea what blocksize is, it will get solved and no one but the Bitcoin geeks will know what the blocksize problem ever was.
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June 01, 2015, 06:07:59 PM
 #17

Those were indeed fun times (MtGox / Dwolla) days. I remember ordering more 6950s.




So you sense it`ll be the same indication again with the 200 price?

Whatever happened to dwolla and bitcoin, I never really understood how their partnership supposedly went south.
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June 01, 2015, 07:22:10 PM
 #18

The past is no guidance to the future, especially when it comes to bitcoins. We are on the death-march to zero, don't forget.

no when it comes to bitcoin, the truth, is that nothing is certain and the rest are bullshit speculations(which are worth nothing) and trolling attempts to crash the price in your favor

THE FUTURE OF
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June 01, 2015, 09:06:54 PM
 #19

This period of remarkable stability was known as "$5 forever"

let's hope we'll have same tothemoon afterwards.
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