if i know that,i will not answer here..but i will do something else
but i think bitcoin will going up,it happen if china keep moving their investment/asset to bitcoin
Start watching the push and pull from the NA/EU traders and compare it with the Chinese. The Chinese market influx is keeping it relatively steady from an MACD/JWellsWilderRSI/StochRSI bastardized btc indicator perspective. If you are bored go to
fiatleak.com and watch the fiat drops into the btc markets. The NA/EU traders for the most part are doing it as a hedge investment, long positions or a long term lottery ticket, but the Chinese are doing it since their currency is in a controlled collapse.
Check out
www.investopedia.com and grab an account on a btc trading platform to learn about market dynamics. There are many more indications of the market to use instead of the general "halving", increasing difficulty and the volatility of btc as an investment strategy position.
I stay up late enough to see the NA/EU/AP markets and make my decisions on a nightly basis from reading charts before I crash and make deterministic positions on my interpretations of seven indicator models for a twelve hour period. The fact that 99.9% of people do not do this is why the people that do make money on the way up and the way down is possible. Panic, think fight or flight causes sell orders at low levels and nervous re-entry at high levels and the traders eat it up.
I treat btc as a stock and trade it long and short, along with day trade when I am bored. Not accounting for the million variables that could be used to gauge the swings is a bad position, along with waiting for good news or bad news on the internet. You can see the changes in the market swings by simply monitoring the flow with tools and not CNN, Fox News or "Ask Me Anything".
The NA/EU traders have nervous fingers for the most part, so keep that in perspective. The Chinese and other countries are using it to maintain an equitable position for survivability due to a potential currency collapse.
Holding and hoping is a bad position imo, but to each their own.
Bitcoin is a currency/commodity/revolution, so treat it as one unless you purposely don't watch the price to be surprised and expect amazing returns. Sell high, buy low, hedge your positions and don't miss out on the massive amounts of profit to be made in between swings.
Ufo
edit: I have no stake in any btc organization and my pictures of my mining operations, albeit small is not for sale. I have had three people contact me to see if I am selling my mining operation. I am not, scammers are using my pictures as bait. I will let everyone know my exit point and when I am selling my equipment, so if you see nine miners all connected in the pron thread those are mine. Please report the people that are using my pictures to scam on this forum to get them banned.
I will never sell anything btc related unless you see a post from me and I will hold up a date/time printed paper to prove my account name and date/time. If anyone is attempting to sell you something have them take a photo with them holding your name, with a time/date and their name for proof in a photo. If they do not do so, they are not to be trusted and should be reported to the mods.