[ANN] Augur alpha test: decentralized prediction markets

[tinybike]

Augur is a fully decentralized prediction market platform.  (What does this mean?  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo for an intro!)  I'm very happy to announce that we've just started our alpha test!  This is a public alpha, so everyone is welcome to come try out Augur and help us test drive it.

There are two ways to use Augur:

1. If you're not comfortable using a terminal, we have a no-download, immediately usable version at: http://demo.augur.net.  (We call this our "demo", but it is a live, fully decentralized blockchain -- you're just using our server's unlocked account!)

2. If you're more technologically savvy and really want to help us test the software, please go to http://www.augur.net/blog/the-augur-alpha-is-now-available-to-download for download/installation/launch instructions.

If you get stuck or have questions, please shoot me an email (jack@augur.net) or just respond to this post and I'll get back to you as quick as I can 

[totoy]

Ninja alpha

[locohammerhead]

Says blockchain not current on your alpha demo site.

[iqlimasyadiqa]

Ninja alpha

I hope ninja Beta 

[locohammerhead]

When i run command geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain "http://client.augur.net http://localhost:8080" --shh --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" --bootnodes "enode://035b7845dfa0c0980112abdfdf4dc11087f56b77e10d2831f186ca12bc00f5b9327c427d03d9cd8106db01488905fb2200b5706f9e41c5d75885057691d9997c@[::]:30303 enode://4014c7fa323dafbb1ada241b74ce16099efde03f994728a55b9ff09a9a80664920045993978de85cb7f6c2ac7e9218694554433f586c1290a8b8faa186ce072c@[::]:30303 enode://12bcaeb91de58d9c48a0383cc77f7c01decf30c7da6967408f31dc793e08b14e2b470536ebe501a4f527e98e84c7f5431755eae5e0f4ba2556539ab9faa77318@76.14.85.30:30303" --unlock primary console
I get no keys in store error. 

When I run geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain http://client.augur.net --shh --unlock primary

The blockchain seems like it is syncing but won't connect to http://client.augur.net/.  The whole chain needs to sync right?

[tinybike]

When i run command geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain "http://client.augur.net http://localhost:8080" --shh --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" --bootnodes "enode://035b7845dfa0c0980112abdfdf4dc11087f56b77e10d2831f186ca12bc00f5b9327c427d03d9cd8106db01488905fb2200b5706f9e41c5d75885057691d9997c@[::]:30303 enode://4014c7fa323dafbb1ada241b74ce16099efde03f994728a55b9ff09a9a80664920045993978de85cb7f6c2ac7e9218694554433f586c1290a8b8faa186ce072c@[::]:30303 enode://12bcaeb91de58d9c48a0383cc77f7c01decf30c7da6967408f31dc793e08b14e2b470536ebe501a4f527e98e84c7f5431755eae5e0f4ba2556539ab9faa77318@76.14.85.30:30303" --unlock primary console
I get no keys in store error. 

When I run geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain http://client.augur.net --shh --unlock primary

The blockchain seems like it is syncing but won't connect to http://client.augur.net/.  The whole chain needs to sync right?

We're actually on a separate blockchain from the public Ethereum testnet at the moment.  (The reason for this is because they're stress-testing the network right now; we'll go back on the public testnet soon.)  So, you have to run geth with the --networkid 1010101 and --protocolversion 59 flags set (and set the data directory to be ~/.augur, so it doesn't conflict with the Ethereum data directory), as in the above command.  If you do that, and let the chain sync, you will be able to see our contracts!

Let me know if you have more trouble.

[tinybike]

Says blockchain not current on your alpha demo site.

Haha, this is what we get for running a centralized demo for decentralized software!    Our server was having some issues and we just brought it back online -- demo.augur.net is up again.  Sorry for the hiccup!

Jack

[starblocks]

Been following for a while

[tinybike]

When i run command geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain "http://client.augur.net http://localhost:8080" --shh --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" --bootnodes "enode://035b7845dfa0c0980112abdfdf4dc11087f56b77e10d2831f186ca12bc00f5b9327c427d03d9cd8106db01488905fb2200b5706f9e41c5d75885057691d9997c@[::]:30303 enode://4014c7fa323dafbb1ada241b74ce16099efde03f994728a55b9ff09a9a80664920045993978de85cb7f6c2ac7e9218694554433f586c1290a8b8faa186ce072c@[::]:30303 enode://12bcaeb91de58d9c48a0383cc77f7c01decf30c7da6967408f31dc793e08b14e2b470536ebe501a4f527e98e84c7f5431755eae5e0f4ba2556539ab9faa77318@76.14.85.30:30303" --unlock primary console
I get no keys in store error.  

When I run geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain http://client.augur.net --shh --unlock primary

The blockchain seems like it is syncing but won't connect to http://client.augur.net/.  The whole chain needs to sync right?

I just realized I did not answer your question re: no keys in store!  Sorry about that (was up all night coding ).  Were you able to create an account from the geth console?  The command shown in our blog post should work.  Try this:

geth --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" account new

It should prompt you for a password, then show you your new address.  After that, try running the very long command from before -- it should work!  But let me know if it doesn't and I'll help you troubleshoot.

Jack

[Razerglass]

pretty interesting concept

[locohammerhead]

When i run command geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain "http://client.augur.net http://localhost:8080" --shh --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" --bootnodes "enode://035b7845dfa0c0980112abdfdf4dc11087f56b77e10d2831f186ca12bc00f5b9327c427d03d9cd8106db01488905fb2200b5706f9e41c5d75885057691d9997c@[::]:30303 enode://4014c7fa323dafbb1ada241b74ce16099efde03f994728a55b9ff09a9a80664920045993978de85cb7f6c2ac7e9218694554433f586c1290a8b8faa186ce072c@[::]:30303 enode://12bcaeb91de58d9c48a0383cc77f7c01decf30c7da6967408f31dc793e08b14e2b470536ebe501a4f527e98e84c7f5431755eae5e0f4ba2556539ab9faa77318@76.14.85.30:30303" --unlock primary console
I get no keys in store error.  

When I run geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain http://client.augur.net --shh --unlock primary

The blockchain seems like it is syncing but won't connect to http://client.augur.net/.  The whole chain needs to sync right?

I just realized I did not answer your question re: no keys in store!  Sorry about that (was up all night coding ).  Were you able to create an account from the geth console?  The command shown in our blog post should work.  Try this:

geth --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" account new

It should prompt you for a password, then show you your new address.  After that, try running the very long command from before -- it should work!  But let me know if it doesn't and I'll help you troubleshoot.

Jack

Looks to be working now.  Getting blockchain loading message on localmachine and the number of markets displayed is rising when I refresh.  This is really cool!  Where can I get CASH?  I'm currently mining but am wondering anyway.
And so I can learn the acronyms.  Not sure what DAG stands for.
I0623 17:25:03.135339    6288 ethash.go:203] Done generating DAG for epoch 2, it took 8m45.6810672s

[locohammerhead]

Also why is my ether balance bouncing all around?  it stopped but now I can no longer get anything from the faucet.  It worked the first time and showed 10,000 cash but all of a sudden that 10,000 cash disappeared and dropped balance to 0.

[tinybike]

Also why is my ether balance bouncing all around?  it stopped but now I can no longer get anything from the faucet.  It worked the first time and showed 10,000 cash but all of a sudden that 10,000 cash disappeared and dropped balance to 0.

Hmm, it shouldn't be bouncing all around!  Are you using demo.augur.net, or the downloaded version?  If the downloaded version, what is your address?  You can get this as eth.coinbase from the geth console, or click on "Account" in the UI and it'll show you your address!

(DAG is short for "directed acyclic graph", which is used by Ethereum's proof-of-work algorithm.)

[jeannemadrigal2]

This looks very interesting, but I fail to see how it is any different from gambling?  Gambling odds adjust based on wagers too.  So it looks to me like you get to bet on things besides sports teams.  Could I make one for anything, like if a celebrity is going to die this year or who will be elected?  Or is this restricted to financial things?

[tinybike]

This looks very interesting, but I fail to see how it is any different from gambling?  Gambling odds adjust based on wagers too.  So it looks to me like you get to bet on things besides sports teams.  Could I make one for anything, like if a celebrity is going to die this year or who will be elected?  Or is this restricted to financial things?

It's a forecasting tool!  Yes, you can make a market for anything -- "who will be elected" is actually one very common (the most common?) use for prediction markets.  What's interesting about these markets is that they produce very accurate predictions (in the aggregate) for who will win the election.  Maybe more interesting than political markets are policy markets -- for example, will GDP go up or down if Hillary wins the election?  Will rates of violent crime in city X increase or decrease if it passes a law making panhandling illegal?

If you have a widely-used, liquid prediction market, you can simply look up the odds of...well, just about anything!  If you ask me, I think that -- if this takes off -- in 5 or 10 years, we'll look back to now and think, "Wow, we were living -- and somehow making plans! -- without knowing the odds that anything was going to happen!"  And that will seem just completely absurd to us.

All that said, prediction markets are actually a very general idea, and you're correct that you can create markets that are more like traditional gambling.  Personally, I find these gambling-esque use cases to be not terribly interesting; after all, if you want to wager on something like "where will the roulette wheel stop?" or "who's going to win the Superbowl?", there's already any number of casinos that would be happy to have your business!

[locohammerhead]

Also why is my ether balance bouncing all around?  it stopped but now I can no longer get anything from the faucet.  It worked the first time and showed 10,000 cash but all of a sudden that 10,000 cash disappeared and dropped balance to 0.

Hmm, it shouldn't be bouncing all around!  Are you using demo.augur.net, or the downloaded version?  If the downloaded version, what is your address?  You can get this as eth.coinbase from the geth console, or click on "Account" in the UI and it'll show you your address!

(DAG is short for "directed acyclic graph", which is used by Ethereum's proof-of-work algorithm.)

I am using my own version.  The ups and downs of the ether balance seems to have stopped.  However I still have 0 cash and the faucet doesn't seem to be working for me.

Addy is: 0x02f65dbd13e63eb97024098844710e53bf6563b5

So far this is pretty cool.  Can't wait to actually get to try it out.

[Infern0]

interesting idea...

[tinybike]

I am using my own version.  The ups and downs of the ether balance seems to have stopped.  However I still have 0 cash and the faucet doesn't seem to be working for me.

Addy is: 0x02f65dbd13e63eb97024098844710e53bf6563b5

So far this is pretty cool.  Can't wait to actually get to try it out.

You need to have a few ether in your account in order to do anything!  I just sent 250 ether to your account, which should bring everything to life for you.

Btw, anyone who's trying to use the downloadable version and is experiencing similar problems and/or having trouble mining, just reply to this post and/or email me (jack@augur.net) and I'm happy to send you some private chain ether so you can get started

[BITDV]

I am using my own version.  The ups and downs of the ether balance seems to have stopped.  However I still have 0 cash and the faucet doesn't seem to be working for me.

Addy is: 0x02f65dbd13e63eb97024098844710e53bf6563b5

So far this is pretty cool.  Can't wait to actually get to try it out.

You need to have a few ether in your account in order to do anything!  I just sent 250 ether to your account, which should bring everything to life for you.

Btw, anyone who's trying to use the downloadable version and is experiencing similar problems and/or having trouble mining, just reply to this post and/or email me (jack@augur.net) and I'm happy to send you some private chain ether so you can get started

Is the demo link not working i go to it and just get a blank page
Dont worry i have downloaded it and syronization has started does it take long ?

[tinybike]

Is the demo link not working i go to it and just get a blank page

I just tried it -- it's working for me.  We've had a much bigger surge of interest than expected for an alpha test, and our server is struggling a bit to keep up.  (We're a non-profit, so no big venture bucks for us -- our geth node is just running on our showing-its-age-a-bit server...)  Give it 30 seconds to a minute -- it should load, it's just a bit slow!

If it's not loading at all for you, I can help you troubleshoot.  What OS/browser are you using?  All our testing so far has been done using Chrome (and a tiny bit of Firefox).  It should be cross-browser compatible of course, but I can't promise it is 100% so just yet