June 28th to July 12th Difficulty thread. Picks are closed!!

[philipma1957]

I appreciate that "you took into account a lot more info" then I but take my word that I'm well positioned in the industry and not a home or hobby miner as you are.

There is very little spare hosting capacity out there. No one (other than home miners who are less than 1% of the network) was sitting on machines through February and March. If you weren't profitable then, but are now, you're going to be under water again in 8, maybe 12, weeks, so that is dumb strategy. (ie. a 20% price rise makes you profitable again, so once difficulty catches up with price, very soon, you will be under again. Furthermore, your "carrying costs" of the data centre, like your mortgage/rent/insurance, will ensure this strategy yields less profit as you paid that money while waiting for the price to rise. Furthermore, these 8 to 12 weeks of "back in business" are going to be barely profitable, if at all.)

And from what we all know, chances of those machines being "back in profit" ever again, after surviving retirement once? Little to none.

If my mine was 20% away from being "underwater" I'd be sweating. Not going "Gee, I'm going to plug all this back in when the price goes up". Running a large operation is expensive. As I said, mortgage, rent, insurance, internet, security, employees (you can't just fire everyone and expect them to come back after 6 weeks of unemployment).

Rather than mothball your facility, if you were giving up you'd probably strip it of the electrical (resale on transformers, panels and HVAC is good) and sell the building and land.

Now - your argument is not without merit. If we saw, say, bitcoin return to $500 in the near future. Then yes, everyones going to be opening a mine everywhere, and you will see stored equipment come online. But not at $270. Not enough incentive.

Edit: Also, on your last point about majors maxing out their capacity. Believe me, they're trying. Between fires, equipment failures, bankruptcies, etc. this hasn't been an easy road for most of them. KNC's mine appears to be under water. Bitfury (who are doing fine now) had to shutter a mine in Finland over the winter. We see all of them needing equity investments. If you are making good money, you get debt, not equity. Equity is for companies that need to expand in order to survive.

 so if  home miners have  1% of the network , 3 to 4 ph out of the network?  and 4 ph earns about  41 btc a day. or 1.6 blocks a day.

below is f2pool's payout for july 6th 2015

https://blockchain.info/tx/6a8c32b23b795a8c700e5e46f62151686ac2156ce1c27b8833a7caf0f44df8f0

they paid 700btc to 697 accounts

11 th would have paid .1 btc

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

I think if we merge my ideas with yours we get closer to the truth.

I also think based on my f2pool studies more then 10 % is in home mining  not 1% .

I would imagine builder/farms   are closer to capacity. then I am saying.  But I am sure home miners are at 10% of the network and I know a lot that have idle gear.

so it is a bigger factor then you think.  If home miners have 10% of the network and can boost there mining 25%  that means they could change 35ph to   45 ph

or a 10ph boost. that  is 3%.  I still think bitmaintech does not run at 100% capacity at certain times.  When they swap  s-7's for s-5's which would be now.  the hash stays flatter and the power drops.  I know you think it is a full power level and for all I know you supervise the swapping out of the gear.  so you are certain it is a full power level model for profit.
 If so too bad  as the gear race will never end if you are correct.

[Finksy]

To add to Jamphone -though I am a nobody in the industry- manufacturers aren't worried in the least about the total difficulty/hashrate, they are concerned with their own market share of it, and specifically maintaining/increasing that.  Increase of difficulty is the natural by-product of competition and capitalism in the mining world, and if manufacturers took measures to try to keep the global difficulty down, it would mean they were sacrificing their own revenue in the process.  That just does not happen.

[philipma1957]

To add to Jamphone -though I am a nobody in the industry- manufacturers aren't worried in the least about the total difficulty/hashrate, they are concerned with their own market share of it, and specifically maintaining/increasing that.  Increase of difficulty is the natural by-product of competition and capitalism in the mining world, and if manufacturers took measures to try to keep the global difficulty down, it would mean they were sacrificing their own revenue in the process.  That just does not happen.

well I do see looking at it that way and it certainly may be true. time will  tell if you are correct that is the method they use.

or if they moderate my way and maintain hash rate share by cutting power  and less growth then possible.

I suspect they mix methods and constantly look at other big players.

many ways to get things to work well together.   

[GreatNorthData]

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

No, I count them for what they are, hosted miners on separate accounts. F2Pool is roughly 65 PHash. That's at least 40MW of power. While undoubtedly some are home miners, most is large scale operations. Perhaps 1% is too low, I still doubt it's 5% of the network. And among those home miners, I'd surprised if they had even 10% idled power. Why would they? Older miners have lower hashrates which makes such a large amount of idled power even less likely.

[philipma1957]

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

No, I count them for what they are, hosted miners on separate accounts. F2Pool is roughly 65 PHash. That's at least 40MW of power. While undoubtedly some are home miners, most is large scale operations. Perhaps 1% is too low, I still doubt it's 5% of the network. And among those home miners, I'd surprised if they had even 10% idled power. Why would they? Older miners have lower hashrates which makes such a large amount of idled power even less likely.

Well its the summer.  A lot of home miners turn gear off in the summer due to higher power rates.

as for f2pool  I can fully break the coinage down. takes about 15 minutes.  they paid out 700 coins    I think at least 40 went to payments under .1 btc which is about 10th.

this is an address from f2pool payments

https://blockchain.info/address/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje

585 coins of 697 were paid  from 65 btc down to  .2 btc  which means 112 coins were paid to   miners under .2 btc
637 coins of 697 were paid from  65 btc down to  .1btc   which means   60 coins were paid to miners under .1 btc


112/697 = 16% of the miners on f2 pool are at 20th or less.
 60/697 =   8% of the miners on f2 pool are at 10th or less.

antpool  is close to the same.

as is the other big Chinese company

So  8 to 16% is home mining by the little guy.

 not 1 to  5%

[philipma1957]

Now I know Great Northern Data we have talked a bit.  About hosting ..


You host have many 10th and under do you have>   percent wise  10 percent or less?


 I suspect most that host  with do a lot more then 10th with your company..


But there are a lot of people that mine like I do.  More in the winter less in the summer.  Due to heat and due to power cost.

This year I said fuck it. and I don't have much gear in house.

 but if I had  5 avalon's  I can move them from 800gh each to 1000gh each or 4th to 5th if I spec that we see a bigtime coin move.

 alot of us have sp20's  clocked at 1100 to 1200 gh   but we can bump them from that to 1350gh easy.

you guys are underestimating  what home miners can do.  and I think part of the problem is  you are not the farm in my explanation your are a data center .  you need 90% + cap to survive.  asic builder-miners like bitmaintech have a set of 4 to 5   factors you don't have.

   But maybe I am mistaken.

[alh]

I think it's impossible to separate a small increase in actual hashrate (i.e. new or secondary hardware that's now active), from just variance. It seems you can really only appreciate increases in hardware from a retrospective of difficulty increase, and one change doesn't say anything.

I think it's safe to say that there hasn't been any REAL increase in hashrate for the last two months. The difficulty is roughly what it was 2 months ago (See June 14th and April 5th).

This isn't going to last for the remainder of the year. SFARDS is selling (or self mining) with previously non-existsent hardware. There will be something from Bitmain that's faster and more efficient than the S5, regardless of it's exact designation (e.g. S6/S7).

My personal feeling is that this next difficulty change will put in a new "floor" for difficulty. It may not be be quite 50 billion, but it will be 49 billion at least.

I have absolutely no idea to reconcile the competing views about what a self-mining company does with more efficient gear. Do they replace "for hashrate" (and lower costs), or do they just match Watts and increase hashrate. The last few months suggest very little of the latter. I don't know what happened to the S3's that got displaced by S5's. Some got relocated to a Hydro rich area of China (e.g HaoBTC), maybe some got destroyed to never return.

Enjoy the show over the next 3 months. At least I think we can finally ignore BFL in the whole discussion! 

[EternalWingsofGod]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

Well the price is still increasing so gear is starting to be put online once it becomes profitable again
Right now its at 4-4.25%
In Mr.Burns voice (Excellent)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty: 51,468,038,950 (+4.18%) 
Adjust time: After 662 Blocks, About 4.4 days 
Hashrate(?): 375,257,881 GH/s

[GreatNorthData]

This year I said fuck it. and I don't have much gear in house.

I think you're with most people on that one, you saw the writing was on the wall for 2015 as machines got bigger and hotter. A lot of the gear we now host was once "home miner" gear, but they have packed in it. (It helps that we're cheaper than most people's residential rate.)

Percentage wise who are under 10 TH? Less than 10% of the total power. But we don't do any cloud mining.

Anyway... we can argue for days but it doesn't look like any of us really know how many home miners are left. Discus fish could probably tell us about IP distribution... but they won't I'm sure!

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

total >>>  1307  made  normal 1264    so plus 43

 this is (+3.40%)

about ¾  there

  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.23%)  too high as real number is +3.4%


BTC/USD: 262------- was up to 278

Adjust time:   After 609 Blocks, About 4 days left.



BTC dropped so the Greek scare may be over.


Newest  scare is Citibank looking to copy BTC and use it to move money.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/citibank-developing-cryptocurrency/

[alh]

In case this is new to other folks, I found this website that seems pretty relevant here. I haven't tried to verify it's accuracy, and the projected value does seem high, if I am reading it right. Nevertheless, it seems live a worthwhile addition:

http://nextdifficulty.com/

I kinda liked the little graph, cause it clearly shows the last 7 days, which has a definite upward trend.

[philipma1957]

In case this is new to other folks, I found this website that seems pretty relevant here. I haven't tried to verify it's accuracy, and the projected value does seem high, if I am reading it right. Nevertheless, it seems live a worthwhile addition:

http://nextdifficulty.com/

I kinda liked the little graph, cause it clearly shows the last 7 days, which has a definite upward trend.

it is interesting but the prediction is too high  5.6% is conservative and 6.1% is the best guess and 7.7% is top end.

yesterday we had a good high number of blocks 171   which is the highest number since march when we had a 176.

today we are dropping back to 140 something

https://blockchain.info/blocks

364292 -------------------18:19

363188 ------------------- 00:03

so 105 in 18 hours and 20 min  we should do 6 x 18.= 108 +2 = 110  so we are at a 138 pace for today

daily tracking is tough

but  that is what this thread is about  tracking the diff.

we did have quite a few days in a row over 144   five to be exact, but today could break that streak.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

[notlist3d]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

[Mikestang]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

Hopefully it does go down, just a little...

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

[HerbPean]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

Hopefully it does go down, just a little...

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

Yeah I like to pick 4,20% but i was sure that was too much for this Diff !

I was wrong... always stick to the plan !

[notlist3d]

Seems like were going the wrong way:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,733,894,841 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:    After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    384,592,869 GH/s

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

[HerbPean]

It has to stop NOW !!!

[alh]

It has to stop NOW !!!

I'll get right on that, SIR!!!   

While I am at it, would you like me to adjust your weather or electricity price?