June 28th to July 12th Difficulty thread. Picks are closed!!

[Amph]

come one i only need it to be 2% higher  , i think i went too overboard with my prediction, 4-5 range would have been perfect

[1715234113]

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[1715234113]

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[1715234113]

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[1715234113]

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[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  

        BTC/USD: 268


(+4.04%) --------------------   but this is the live number = ( +2.57%)  See http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days

here are the numbers picked:


picks now closed.  At Lboss you are the last pick:



-1.26% to -1.50% --------------------- Lboss
-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50% --------------------- tlhIlwI
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph



All picks are above   we have perfect coverage  from -1.50%  up to +4.50%

Good luck to all.

[HerbPean]

It has to stop NOW !!!

I'll get right on that, SIR!!!  

While I am at it, would you like me to adjust your weather or electricity price?

No but i can give you a BTC address to fill out with bitcoin tho !!!

hahahahaha

[notlist3d]

At least it went down some.  Hopefully it continues, Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,228,595,289 (+3.70%)
Adjust time:    After 317 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    365,188,024 GH/s

[Last of the V8s]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

[philipma1957]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

[Last of the V8s]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

Know the feeling.
Hope they're just trying to keep the diff down, though

edit, add: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-bitfury-rasies-20-million/

[notlist3d]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

To bad they are such a quiet company we likely will have to speculate.  But it appears to be more then luck we can safely say at this point.   

It could be anything from scheduled maintenance to a more serious problem.   If in a day they are still having such low numbers I will go twords more serious.   

[HigsonPP]

I'm not sure this time. Maybe we can go all the more low again. But we need to properly analyse it. Price is rising very swiftly. That's the thing worth noticing here.

[HerbPean]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

[notlist3d]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

[Mikestang]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

I think they try and play games with the diff adjustment toward the end of the cycle.  Like HerbPean mentions, we see the same thing over and over, it can't be coincidence.

I'm sure the big players have figured out how to optimize their profits by turning some gear on and off at key times based on electricity rate and btc price.

[HerbPean]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

My logical thinking would say the exact same thing as you mention but it seems someone is still doing it.

[philipma1957]

if you are a big player  on the mining side  fast growth of the network is not needed.  exactly what has happened  since the fall under 2% growth per diff adjustment works well.

[alh]

It would seem that this "timing" or "gaming" of the hash rate can't work long term. Somebody (e.g. SFARDS or 21 Inc) decides to start mining, then either the network grows as a result, or somebody else has to "make room". Seems kinda like OPEC, and then a new oil producing country decides to join in.

[notlist3d]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

Know the feeling.
Hope they're just trying to keep the diff down, though

edit, add: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-bitfury-rasies-20-million/

Appears they are back up and hashing.  So was some bad luck or temporary problem it would seem.   Last 2.5 hours or so are where something kicked back on or them

[philipma1957]

they altered block size did one block at 974.5kb then looked like they crashed for 8 hours or so.  seems to be back up and now running 974.5kb blocks vs 135kb blocks

[wlefever]

How much can we get this +% difficulty adjustment down in the next 2 days?  Hopefully under 1%!

[alh]

So sad when a good conspiracy theory gets busted by something more mundane (i.e. facts).  

[notlist3d]

So sad when a good conspiracy theory gets busted by something more mundane (i.e. facts).  

Don't worry I'm sure there are more conspiracy's to come.   We never lack those

The difficulty is looking nicer and nicer.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,747,107,783 (+2.72%)
Adjust time:    After 281 Blocks, About 1.9 days
Hashrate(?):    355,502,608 GH/s