June 28th to July 12th Difficulty thread. Picks are closed!!

[philipma1957]

Note to all I open and closed all 2014 diff threads they are now more lumped together and since locked should stay this way.

In a day they will drop down but since locked will stay together.  Kind of an interesting history.


Okay last diff has come and gone.  It was [-0.58%]

tlhIwI got it correct.  Congrats.

Picks will start at block 300 and end at block 1000




Look at this set of numbers below  pretty impressive:

We are  under an 0.6% average for 10 jumps.

Difficulty History
Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s




Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s


Do not pick until block 300
Lastly we are at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-0.19%)


with 1991 to go.

[1715482629]

1715482629

[1715482629]

1715482629

[1715482629]

1715482629

[ezeminer]

maybe we can go lower again

[notlist3d]

maybe we can go lower again

That would be nice for sure.  It's early so I expect it to jump around but bitwisdom now showing slight positive:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,465,478,088 (+0.13%)
Adjust time:    After 1955 Blocks, About 13.3 days
Hashrate(?):    356,576,458 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Well with the pricing being mentioned by Sfards I think network will be flat. They will self mine 1 or 2 ph of their gear for this diff adjustment.

Which is not much compared to the network.  I also think the 'real' summer heat is not here yet and more of this heat will kill gear.

[notlist3d]

Well with the pricing being mentioned by Sfards I think network will be flat. They will self mine 1 or 2 ph of their gear for this diff adjustment.

Which is not much compared to the network.  I also think the 'real' summer heat is not here yet and more of this heat will kill gear.

What will be interesting with them is what LTC market does.  A2 has been king of scrypt chips for way to long.  If people mine LTC with new chip and dump to get BTC could be interesting to watch.  

As far as BTC I'm very happy with the summer.  Were hitting 255 currently and difficulty is still low for this change.  Looks very nice.

Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,261,924,985 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1823 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):    348,060,020 GH/s

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.


https://blockchain.info/blocks/1435508323699



362977    23:54
362837    00:07

this is 141 blocks for 6-28-2015   norm is 144

the time is not synched so there is a difference between sites.

basically we are flat and close to 0%

with price over 253  things still looks okay.

first day we started at block 362870 ended at 362977  so we did 108 blocks.


362977 23:54

362870 05:44

108 blocks in 18 hours and 10 minutes  norm = 109

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12      

 total >>> 240  made  253 normal  this is (-5.14%)

still very  early  .. as of now suchmoon has not touched base about this diff's prize money.

I am also not sure if last prize has been paid.

 Suchmoon has been good for more then .5 btc in prize money.  I will post when he contacts us. I know he does travel a lot and I am sure he will post soon.

[notlist3d]

Late night bitwisdom looking good still:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,237,574,589 (-0.33%)
Adjust time:    After 1747 Blocks, About 12.0 days
Hashrate(?):    341,713,015 GH/s

Price currently over 260 ... so very nice day for miners.

[notlist3d]

Morning Bitwisdom has slightly went positive:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,845,509,110 (+0.90%)
Adjust time:    After 1705 Blocks, About 11.5 days
Hashrate(?):    341,060,269 GH/s

And price is still hanging above 260

[Amph]

maybe we can go lower again

with the price is rising so nicely, i doubt, this time will be positive, i think i'll pick the same but +1 increase(if it will be available), i'm still not sure

[jonnybravo0311]

Okay last diff has come and gone.  It was -0.58%]

tlhIwI got it correct.  Congrats.

Picks will start at block 300 and end at block 1000




Look at this set of numbers below  pretty impressive:

We are  under an 0.6% average for 10 jumps.

Difficulty History
Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s




Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s


Do not pick until block 300
Lastly we are at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-0.19%)


with 1991 to go.

The basic flattening of the network difficulty has provided far more life from my S3s than I thought they would get.  I never once thought I'd see a year's worth of mining out of them when I purchased them... I figured they'd be replaced or sold by January of this year at the latest.

Of course, there are persistent rumors that BitFury is about to power up a ton of their next-generation gear.  I'm sure Bitmain is already working on the replacement to the BM1384.  Spondoolies, I'm sure, also has something up their sleeves.

[philipma1957]

Okay here we go pick time.


With coins at 268 usd
you know diff will rise a bit.

(+0.25%) current


and will we finally go up and over the 50 bill diff?

I think so as long as price shifts up.




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:   49,524,478,298 (+0.25%)
Adjust time:   After 1686 Blocks, About 11.5 days
Hashrate(?):   339,924,797 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   11:40 (4.6 minutes ago)

[HerbPean]

I would like to take +0.51% - 0.75%

Thanks !

[philipma1957]

+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean

[jonnybravo0311]

+1.76 - +2.00.  The upward price trend might entice some miners to turn hardware back on, but I'm not sure how much of an impact it's going to have overall for this difficulty adjustment.

[philipma1957]

+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean





+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311

[Biodom]

+2.01 to +2.25 please
thanks

I can never guess right when it zig zags like last time  

[Amph]

i want this range, this time

+5.25% + 5.5%

usually the diff reflect the price with a delay, and usually it will reflect the possible next increase

[philipma1957]

+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean





+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom

[notlist3d]

+2.51% to +2.75  please

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean





+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom







+5.25% to +5.5%-------------------- Amph

[Last of the V8s]

+0.76% to +1.00% please

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean





+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom

+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d


+5.25% to +5.5%--------------------- Amph

[edonkey]

This time the cat says: +1.01% to +1.25%

I think he's going for the positive opposite of philipma1957

[Mikestang]

+3.76 to 4.00 please.

I see us over 50G here shortly.  Greece is causing some motion in bitcoin.

[valkir]

+2.26% to +2.50

Please ! 

[SunnyIgor]

+2.76 to 3.0
thanks!

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------  Last of The V8s



+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom

+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d


+5.25% to +5.5%--------------------- Amph

[ezeminer]

+1.01% to +1.25%

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey


+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom

+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d

+3.76% to +4.00% -------------------- Mikestang
+5.26% to +5.50%--------------------- Amph

[ezeminer]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey


+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom

+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d

+3.76% to +4.00% -------------------- Mikestang
+5.26% to +5.50%--------------------- Amph

lol edonky!

[valkir]

+2.26% to +2.50

Please ! 

Dont forget me phil! 

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey


+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,443,496,443 (+0.08%)
Adjust time:    After 1609 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    353,879,523 GH/s

Still  very low but also very early in change.  I hope my guess is high

Price over past few weeks has been a nice little bump currently a little over 260.

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.

+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[philipma1957]

…

+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey



…

lol edonky!

yeah he beat you to it.  I gave you +1.26% TO +1.50%

SEE  POST ABOVE!

[tss]

+1.51% to +1.75% please

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957


+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor


+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[ezeminer]

…

+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey



…

lol edonky!

yeah he beat you to it.  I gave you +1.26% TO +1.50%

SEE  POST ABOVE!

well whoops, I need to read more

I accept

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 

 total >>> 384  made  normal  397

 this is (-3.27%)

still very  early  ..

[mavericklm]

edonkey, that was my spot! 

fuck it! i choose 0!

[zebedee]

+3.01% to +3.25% for me plz

[suchmoon]

I have no clue what's going to happen with the difficulty this cycle, just subscribing to the thread :-)

[EternalWingsofGod]

+4.01 to +4.25
May be an interesting few weeks with Greece in the news and other economic issues.

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957

-------   0   ----------------------------- mavericklm

+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor

+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[Kexkey]

+4.26 to +4.50%

[mavericklm]

i feel like the clit of the pussy 

[philipma1957]

i feel like the clit of the pussy 

well then you feel pretty darn good don't you.

[wlefever]

+0.26% to +0.50%

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957

-------   0   ----------------------------- mavericklm

+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey
+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[wpt1wpt1]

+3.26% to +3.50% Please

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957

-------   0   ----------------------------- mavericklm

+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[philipma1957]

real quick numbers are good


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Estimated Next Difficulty:    (+0.26%)

BTC/USD:256.794

Adjust time:   After 1535 Blocks, About 10.6 days


price is dropping.

 the Greece bailout may happen which will put downward pressure on BTC price  also put downward pressure on diff numbers.

A lot of high picks over  and only I am negative.

Would be funny if we go minus.  10 days left anything is possible.

[wlefever]

I was going to pick negative, but I feel like with slightly higher prices no way we see negative adjustments back to back! Going to be interesting to see it play out.

[Finksy]

+0.01% to +0.25% Please

[tss]

a bit surprising to see not a single negative prediction and the + side filled up.

[Finksy]

Well, the rate of ramp-up by Bitfury and possibly 21e seems to be constant, and the rate of hash-rate reduction due to temperature/electrical hindrances should slow down with the higher price of coin, not to mention the natural wave of hashrate should bring us up a bit after the last negative difficulty change.

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh

-------   0   ----------------------------- mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

 total >>>  525 made  normal  541

 this is (-3.33%)

still very  early  …

My guess is heat, breakdowns, cooling costs  power costs are still pushing diff lower.


http://ehash.com/product/avalon4-mini/   will release soon may do .4 watts a gh.

no word on antminer s-7  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-0.67%)


BTC/USD: 259.149

Adjust time:   After 1477 Blocks, About 10.3 days

[alh]

I'll join Phil on the negative side.

-0.76 to -1.00%

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh

-------   0   ----------------------------- mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-0.54%)

 BTC/USD: 255

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,063,094,300 (-0.69%)
Adjust time:    After 1389 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    350,499,303 GH/s

So still looking very good.   And with price around 255 I still say great summer for miners.

[Jamphone]

-0.51 to -0.75% please

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-0.54%)

 BTC/USD: 255

[Mikestang]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,063,094,300 (-0.69%)
Adjust time:    After 1389 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    350,499,303 GH/s

So still looking very good.   And with price around 255 I still say great summer for miners.

So far so good, but summer is only 6 days old...

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,063,094,300 (-0.69%)
Adjust time:    After 1389 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    350,499,303 GH/s

So still looking very good.   And with price around 255 I still say great summer for miners.

So far so good, but summer is only 6 days old...

well yeah but so far so good.

I am doing a thread on gear right now it is an sp20 thread.  
I am trying to determine failure rates.

on the:

 sp20
 s-5
 s-4
 avalon4.1
 sp30
 sp31
 sp35
 sp4+

I think many miners say fuck this shit when a piece of gear dies.  and this contributes to downward diff pressure.
I bring it up here because the heat of the summer is going to be killing more gear.
I can see low diff for 2 months. with no real worries.
The underclockers of gear like myself may become big winners since they never kill gear. Well hardly ever.

[sloopy]

-0.01% to -0.25%

I think it is going to jump hard next round. Hopefully not! Has to soon though.
Seems as though BITMAIN would be hitting the test benches with new product right about now.

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-0.42%)

 BTC/USD: 254

Adjust time:   After 1335 Blocks, About 9.3 days

[tlhIlwI]

-0.26% to -0.50% please.

I find this guess unlikely, but since I won the big one last week I decided to sit this one out until late in the guessing and choose whatever was available.  I actually expect a positive this time, but not a high one. 

With the price going up we will probably see difficulty going up (assuming the price sticks), but I would expect a little lag time before that kicks in.  I'm not sure exactly how large farms negotiate their power cost, but having consistent constant power demand (I can't remember what this is called off the top of my head) or at least a minimum usage might play a part.  If that is the case then an otherwise unprofitable farm would need to ensure at least a month of continuous operation before restarting.  Of course, I have no idea if this is actually the case or not.  I do know that around here there are discounted rates for exceeding some high amount of usage (though here isn't the cheap place to put a farm and options vary from place to place).  If that holds true elsewhere then there is more involved than the daily BTC price in deciding if it is profitable to restart a farm or not, thus why I expect some lag in the start/stop decisions. 

I'm quite enjoying the current diff situation.  When I bought my rig in January I expected to be reselling it in May.  It's now July on this rig and, unless diff really shoots up extra fast, I still have enough headroom for undervolting to make it through September and maybe even beyond.  If I can make it to winter then heating offset options are even available to squeeze out a few extra months.  I never thought that would ever be possible.  I may even ROI without selling the rig... imagine that!

[philipma1957]

-1.26% to -1.50% --------------------- Lboss
-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50% --------------------- tlhIlwI
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-0.42%)

 BTC/USD: 254

Adjust time:   After 1335 Blocks, About 9.3 days

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 

total >>>  678  made  normal  688

 this is (-1.453%)

still very  early  …

My guess is heat, breakdowns, cooling costs  power costs are still pushing diff lower.


http://ehash.com/product/avalon4-mini/   will release soon may do .4 watts a gh.

no word on antminer s-7  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-0.57%)


BTC/USD: 255.001

Adjust time:   After 1326
 Blocks, About 9.3 days

[kenscho]

my pick

+3.51% to +3.75%

[Bitdonator]

nice to see that diff. going down :-)

[philipma1957]

nice to see that diff. going down :-)

yeah it is pretty good.  I have been doing a thread in the hardware section on sp20's trying to figure out the % that have failed.

I think they are close to 95% alive and 5% dead.

here is a link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1106042.0

[notlist3d]

Still early but bitwisdom slightly going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,257,353,898 (-0.29%)
Adjust time:    After 1244 Blocks, About 8.7 days
Hashrate(?):    363,217,092 GH/s

Price around 254 slightly going up aswell so equals out

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

total >>>  836  made  normal  832

 this is (+0.48%)

still very  early  …

My guess is heat, breakdowns, cooling costs  power costs are still pushing diff lower.


http://ehash.com/product/avalon4-mini/   will release soon may do .4 watts a gh.

no word on antminer s-7  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+0.24%)


BTC/USD: 252

Adjust time:   After 1162
 Blocks, About 8.0 days

[Lboss]

I want to pick from -1.26% to -1.50%. No chance but just for fun

[philipma1957]

picks now closed.  At Lboss you are the last pick:



-1.26% to -1.50% --------------------- Lboss
-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50% --------------------- tlhIlwI
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph



All picks are above   we have perfect coverage  from -1.50%  up to +4.50%

Good luck to all.

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10
total >>>  990  made  normal  976

 this is (+1.43%0

HALF WAY there

My guess is heat, breakdowns, cooling costs  power costs are still pushing diff lower.


http://ehash.com/product/avalon4-mini/   will release soon may do .4 watts a gh.

no word on antminer s-7  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+1.50%)


BTC/USD: 261---------------------------------  Greek fears will come to head with vote on Sunday  this could really take off if Greece  votes no Collapsing their economy

Adjust time:   After 1003 Blocks, About 6.8 days left.

[alh]

Might want to adjust the title if picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

title is corrected. Lboss was the last to pick.


coins are at 262 usd.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



this jump  brings us over  50 bill (+2.31%)

Adjust time:   After 940 Blocks, About 6.3 days

[philipma1957]

Okay coinbase has a big push in price 275 usd.

Now I found this on Greek vote.


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/early-results-show-clear-lead-no-vote-greece-180531714.html#odXNMqV


59% no to 41% yes with 10% of the vote.

I have to think  the no vote will


A: Cause a big run to BTC for Greeks in the know.
B: 300 usd plus for BTC
C: A solid  diff increase if you get up and over 300usd and stay up and over.

I can see 5% for 2 diffs in a row if we stay in the 320 to 350 price range.

[valkir]

+ 2.31% is perfect 

Im wondering if Greeks cant withdraw all cash from atm how could they buy Bitcoin ?
Can they use the online system ? I guess the banks also take down the online stuff, no ??

[philipma1957]

+ 2.31% is perfect  

Im wondering if Greeks cant withdraw all cash from atm how could they buy Bitcoin ?
Can they use the online system ? I guess the banks also take down the online stuff, no ??

Funny you should ask.  I used to live in New York City.  I was born in Queens and when my wife and I got married we lived in Astoria Queens for 6 years then moved to  New Jersey near the shore.

Astoria Queens has thousands of Greeks both resident Aliens and USA citizens.  I know a few people even though I have not lived there in 20+ years.  I am sure plenty of BTC is being purchased in Astoria and then sent to Greece as I type. At this point the vote is 60-40 no so you can be sure they will need some kind of money remember Greece has ties to Cypress so I am sure plenty of them remember BTC helping smart ones in Cypress.

This Greek crisis is an example of  the single biggest reason I like BTC.   It can help you if the place you live in fucks up with money.

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

total >>>  1136  made  normal 1120

 this is (+1.24%

more then HALF WAY there

 




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+2.71%)  too high as real number is +1.24%


BTC/USD: 262------- was up to 278

Adjust time:   After 865 Blocks, About 5.8 days left.



BTC dropped so the Greek scare may be over.

[alh]

I think all of us that are in for a difficulty decrease will be way off base:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,269,553,292 (+3.78%)
Adjust time:    After 821 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    387,668,486 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
   
Updated:    3:0 (4.5 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $268 Usd

[philipma1957]

I think all of us that are in for a difficulty decrease will be way off base:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,269,553,292 (+3.78%)
Adjust time:    After 821 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    387,668,486 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
   
Updated:    3:0 (4.5 minutes ago)

BTC Price: $268 Usd

 


https://blockchain.info/blocks


364082  - 08:39
364007  - 00:01

we made 76 blocks in 8 hours and 40 minutes the norm is 52  this is a 210 block daily pace!
I don't think we are going to have a 210 block day

[jonnybravo0311]

The Greek scare is definitely not over... Japanese and US markets opened way off.  DOW was down over 150.  BTC is around $275.  Bitmain just jacked UP the price of an S5 (totally irrelevant, but thought I'd throw that little tidbit in here ).

[philipma1957]

The Greek scare is definitely not over... Japanese and US markets opened way off.  DOW was down over 150.  BTC is around $275.  Bitmain just jacked UP the price of an S5 (totally irrelevant, but thought I'd throw that little tidbit in here ).

yep and the pace for today has dropped from 210 to 200 block day.

still huge.  200 blocks or 210 blocks  are both over  40%  jump.  I have been tracking daily for about a year IIRC 185 has been the biggest daily number.


 My opinion is older gear has been turned back on and a lot of farms are hoping the Greek collapse will be just what is needed  to drive coin price into the 325-350 range.

[valkir]

210 block is crazy! 

I remember a month or 2 ago I read a article about gear that will turn in when price go up.
In the article they name this effect. Will try to find it back. It was really interesting and show that the actual hashrate will go up if the price go up.

[HerbPean]

Looks like the BTC price will push up the Diff now.

looks like 3-4%

[philipma1957]

210 block is crazy!  

I remember a month or 2 ago I read a article about gear that will turn in when price go up.
In the article they name this effect. Will try to find it back. It was really interesting and show that the actual hashrate will go up if the price go up.

My hope is a lot of expensive gear was turned back on  by people hoping price jumps a lot.

If this is a shit ton of new gear  it is really more then I thought possible.

Of course variance is possible the time period I used to calculate 210 blocks is small.  The next calculation dropped it to 200 blocks.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

So far we made 128 blocks today in  16 hours and 10 minutes

we should be at 97  so   128/97 =  1.31958    and 1.32 x 144 =  190 blocks


so part of that 210 then 200 then 190 projection for today is variance .     But for now it looks like we will move up this adjustment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,546,827,261 (+4.34%)----- coinbase price is 272 usd
Adjust time:   After 762 Blocks, About 5.0 days
Hashrate(?):   383,826,753 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (1.2 minutes ago)

[jonnybravo0311]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

[alh]

Looking at a longer time horizon, difficulty has increased by roughly 21% during the 1st half of 2015. In the last half of 2014, the difficulty increase was roughly 140%, with about 20% in the last 3 months of 2014. Clearly the rate of increase has been slowing since Mid 2014. So while difficulty has increased, and will likely continue to do so through 2015, it's decelerating.

A small bright spot.

[Mikestang]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

[Jamphone]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

While your math makes sense, I can tell you that no one is doing this. No large farm has that kind of space available. All the majors are constantly looking to fill any spare space, and they'll pay more than your old gear will make you. Go ahead, get a MW set up and ready to fill and cool. And then wait for the price. You don't: you fill it with someone willing to pay. Simple business. No one is sitting on MWs of capacity. I would guess that "spare" capacity is less than 5 MW through the entire network of space that has low enough costs to be competitive.

[philipma1957]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

I suspect some big farms  keep some marginal gear on hand just for an occasion like this.  Price spike of 10% flip a switch and turn on 1ph of s-3's

Do you?  I was thinking something like that, but then I had to think of the space that would take up, the effort to maintain all the hardware that you rarely use, etc. etc. and I just don't see it as a very profitable or workable theory.  If a farm has the rack space then they're probably using it for gear that's running.  Marginal gear does not get left sitting around, hooked up and ready to go.  It gets removed from the farm to make room for more gear!

I think the profit margin dictates this behavior and the corners farms cut to maintain a profit lead me to think that the scenario of keeping marginal gear around and connected to network and power to only be used on rare occasions just doesn't make accounting sense.

it does  if your are selling off s-5's and replacing with s-7's.  Then have the s-5's  go back to mining while still having them listed for sale.

I should have been more clear.  oh 176 blocks made today with 40 minutes to go.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Later today I will map out what I said a little more clearly

While your math makes sense, I can tell you that no one is doing this. No large farm has that kind of space available. All the majors are constantly looking to fill any spare space, and they'll pay more than your old gear will make you. Go ahead, get a MW set up and ready to fill and cool. And then wait for the price. You don't: you fill it with someone willing to pay. Simple business. No one is sitting on MWs of capacity. I would guess that "spare" capacity is less than 5 MW through the entire network of space that has low enough costs to be competitive.

disagree but my  example takes into account a lot more info then yours. It hinges on my belief that asics builders have tried to keep diff lower in order to avoid an arms race.
No matter what anyone says diff has been checked since last fall  here are the numbers:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s

So in the fall I am Bitmaintech I swapped out my s-3's for s-5's



 Now in the spring summer I swapped out my s-5's for s-7's

I don't try to grow like mad I grow a little and I lowered power bills with better gear.

If I fully swapped out from s-3's to s-5'  to s-7's the network would have grown faster.
Same goes for the other companies.

If companies fully swapped and kept all places maxxed  the hash rate would be better. more like 400 or 425ph.

[Jamphone]

I appreciate that "you took into account a lot more info" then I but take my word that I'm well positioned in the industry and not a home or hobby miner as you are.

There is very little spare hosting capacity out there. No one (other than home miners who are less than 1% of the network) was sitting on machines through February and March. If you weren't profitable then, but are now, you're going to be under water again in 8, maybe 12, weeks, so that is dumb strategy. (ie. a 20% price rise makes you profitable again, so once difficulty catches up with price, very soon, you will be under again. Furthermore, your "carrying costs" of the data centre, like your mortgage/rent/insurance, will ensure this strategy yields less profit as you paid that money while waiting for the price to rise. Furthermore, these 8 to 12 weeks of "back in business" are going to be barely profitable, if at all.)

And from what we all know, chances of those machines being "back in profit" ever again, after surviving retirement once? Little to none.

If my mine was 20% away from being "underwater" I'd be sweating. Not going "Gee, I'm going to plug all this back in when the price goes up". Running a large operation is expensive. As I said, mortgage, rent, insurance, internet, security, employees (you can't just fire everyone and expect them to come back after 6 weeks of unemployment).

Rather than mothball your facility, if you were giving up you'd probably strip it of the electrical (resale on transformers, panels and HVAC is good) and sell the building and land.

Now - your argument is not without merit. If we saw, say, bitcoin return to $500 in the near future. Then yes, everyones going to be opening a mine everywhere, and you will see stored equipment come online. But not at $270. Not enough incentive.

Edit: Also, on your last point about majors maxing out their capacity. Believe me, they're trying. Between fires, equipment failures, bankruptcies, etc. this hasn't been an easy road for most of them. KNC's mine appears to be under water. Bitfury (who are doing fine now) had to shutter a mine in Finland over the winter. We see all of them needing equity investments. If you are making good money, you get debt, not equity. Equity is for companies that need to expand in order to survive.

[philipma1957]

I appreciate that "you took into account a lot more info" then I but take my word that I'm well positioned in the industry and not a home or hobby miner as you are.

There is very little spare hosting capacity out there. No one (other than home miners who are less than 1% of the network) was sitting on machines through February and March. If you weren't profitable then, but are now, you're going to be under water again in 8, maybe 12, weeks, so that is dumb strategy. (ie. a 20% price rise makes you profitable again, so once difficulty catches up with price, very soon, you will be under again. Furthermore, your "carrying costs" of the data centre, like your mortgage/rent/insurance, will ensure this strategy yields less profit as you paid that money while waiting for the price to rise. Furthermore, these 8 to 12 weeks of "back in business" are going to be barely profitable, if at all.)

And from what we all know, chances of those machines being "back in profit" ever again, after surviving retirement once? Little to none.

If my mine was 20% away from being "underwater" I'd be sweating. Not going "Gee, I'm going to plug all this back in when the price goes up". Running a large operation is expensive. As I said, mortgage, rent, insurance, internet, security, employees (you can't just fire everyone and expect them to come back after 6 weeks of unemployment).

Rather than mothball your facility, if you were giving up you'd probably strip it of the electrical (resale on transformers, panels and HVAC is good) and sell the building and land.

Now - your argument is not without merit. If we saw, say, bitcoin return to $500 in the near future. Then yes, everyones going to be opening a mine everywhere, and you will see stored equipment come online. But not at $270. Not enough incentive.

Edit: Also, on your last point about majors maxing out their capacity. Believe me, they're trying. Between fires, equipment failures, bankruptcies, etc. this hasn't been an easy road for most of them. KNC's mine appears to be under water. Bitfury (who are doing fine now) had to shutter a mine in Finland over the winter. We see all of them needing equity investments. If you are making good money, you get debt, not equity. Equity is for companies that need to expand in order to survive.

 so if  home miners have  1% of the network , 3 to 4 ph out of the network?  and 4 ph earns about  41 btc a day. or 1.6 blocks a day.

below is f2pool's payout for july 6th 2015

https://blockchain.info/tx/6a8c32b23b795a8c700e5e46f62151686ac2156ce1c27b8833a7caf0f44df8f0

they paid 700btc to 697 accounts

11 th would have paid .1 btc

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

I think if we merge my ideas with yours we get closer to the truth.

I also think based on my f2pool studies more then 10 % is in home mining  not 1% .

I would imagine builder/farms   are closer to capacity. then I am saying.  But I am sure home miners are at 10% of the network and I know a lot that have idle gear.

so it is a bigger factor then you think.  If home miners have 10% of the network and can boost there mining 25%  that means they could change 35ph to   45 ph

or a 10ph boost. that  is 3%.  I still think bitmaintech does not run at 100% capacity at certain times.  When they swap  s-7's for s-5's which would be now.  the hash stays flatter and the power drops.  I know you think it is a full power level and for all I know you supervise the swapping out of the gear.  so you are certain it is a full power level model for profit.
 If so too bad  as the gear race will never end if you are correct.

[Finksy]

To add to Jamphone -though I am a nobody in the industry- manufacturers aren't worried in the least about the total difficulty/hashrate, they are concerned with their own market share of it, and specifically maintaining/increasing that.  Increase of difficulty is the natural by-product of competition and capitalism in the mining world, and if manufacturers took measures to try to keep the global difficulty down, it would mean they were sacrificing their own revenue in the process.  That just does not happen.

[philipma1957]

To add to Jamphone -though I am a nobody in the industry- manufacturers aren't worried in the least about the total difficulty/hashrate, they are concerned with their own market share of it, and specifically maintaining/increasing that.  Increase of difficulty is the natural by-product of competition and capitalism in the mining world, and if manufacturers took measures to try to keep the global difficulty down, it would mean they were sacrificing their own revenue in the process.  That just does not happen.

well I do see looking at it that way and it certainly may be true. time will  tell if you are correct that is the method they use.

or if they moderate my way and maintain hash rate share by cutting power  and less growth then possible.

I suspect they mix methods and constantly look at other big players.

many ways to get things to work well together.   

[GreatNorthData]

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

No, I count them for what they are, hosted miners on separate accounts. F2Pool is roughly 65 PHash. That's at least 40MW of power. While undoubtedly some are home miners, most is large scale operations. Perhaps 1% is too low, I still doubt it's 5% of the network. And among those home miners, I'd surprised if they had even 10% idled power. Why would they? Older miners have lower hashrates which makes such a large amount of idled power even less likely.

[philipma1957]

80% of the payouts where for miners under or close to .1 btc

they are 1/5 of the network . So you 1% of the hash is from home miners means you don't count guys with hash at f2pool.

No, I count them for what they are, hosted miners on separate accounts. F2Pool is roughly 65 PHash. That's at least 40MW of power. While undoubtedly some are home miners, most is large scale operations. Perhaps 1% is too low, I still doubt it's 5% of the network. And among those home miners, I'd surprised if they had even 10% idled power. Why would they? Older miners have lower hashrates which makes such a large amount of idled power even less likely.

Well its the summer.  A lot of home miners turn gear off in the summer due to higher power rates.

as for f2pool  I can fully break the coinage down. takes about 15 minutes.  they paid out 700 coins    I think at least 40 went to payments under .1 btc which is about 10th.

this is an address from f2pool payments

https://blockchain.info/address/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje

585 coins of 697 were paid  from 65 btc down to  .2 btc  which means 112 coins were paid to   miners under .2 btc
637 coins of 697 were paid from  65 btc down to  .1btc   which means   60 coins were paid to miners under .1 btc


112/697 = 16% of the miners on f2 pool are at 20th or less.
 60/697 =   8% of the miners on f2 pool are at 10th or less.

antpool  is close to the same.

as is the other big Chinese company

So  8 to 16% is home mining by the little guy.

 not 1 to  5%

[philipma1957]

Now I know Great Northern Data we have talked a bit.  About hosting ..


You host have many 10th and under do you have>   percent wise  10 percent or less?


 I suspect most that host  with do a lot more then 10th with your company..


But there are a lot of people that mine like I do.  More in the winter less in the summer.  Due to heat and due to power cost.

This year I said fuck it. and I don't have much gear in house.

 but if I had  5 avalon's  I can move them from 800gh each to 1000gh each or 4th to 5th if I spec that we see a bigtime coin move.

 alot of us have sp20's  clocked at 1100 to 1200 gh   but we can bump them from that to 1350gh easy.

you guys are underestimating  what home miners can do.  and I think part of the problem is  you are not the farm in my explanation your are a data center .  you need 90% + cap to survive.  asic builder-miners like bitmaintech have a set of 4 to 5   factors you don't have.

   But maybe I am mistaken.

[alh]

I think it's impossible to separate a small increase in actual hashrate (i.e. new or secondary hardware that's now active), from just variance. It seems you can really only appreciate increases in hardware from a retrospective of difficulty increase, and one change doesn't say anything.

I think it's safe to say that there hasn't been any REAL increase in hashrate for the last two months. The difficulty is roughly what it was 2 months ago (See June 14th and April 5th).

This isn't going to last for the remainder of the year. SFARDS is selling (or self mining) with previously non-existsent hardware. There will be something from Bitmain that's faster and more efficient than the S5, regardless of it's exact designation (e.g. S6/S7).

My personal feeling is that this next difficulty change will put in a new "floor" for difficulty. It may not be be quite 50 billion, but it will be 49 billion at least.

I have absolutely no idea to reconcile the competing views about what a self-mining company does with more efficient gear. Do they replace "for hashrate" (and lower costs), or do they just match Watts and increase hashrate. The last few months suggest very little of the latter. I don't know what happened to the S3's that got displaced by S5's. Some got relocated to a Hydro rich area of China (e.g HaoBTC), maybe some got destroyed to never return.

Enjoy the show over the next 3 months. At least I think we can finally ignore BFL in the whole discussion! 

[EternalWingsofGod]

I'm certainly hoping it's not a bunch of miners firing back up old gear just to mine and dump.  I'm also hoping that it's not a new 20PH farm that's come online either... in any case, though, certainly looks like we're in for a positive adjustment.  Hopefully this is just some variance spiking and it'll come back down

Well the price is still increasing so gear is starting to be put online once it becomes profitable again
Right now its at 4-4.25%
In Mr.Burns voice (Excellent)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty: 51,468,038,950 (+4.18%) 
Adjust time: After 662 Blocks, About 4.4 days 
Hashrate(?): 375,257,881 GH/s

[GreatNorthData]

This year I said fuck it. and I don't have much gear in house.

I think you're with most people on that one, you saw the writing was on the wall for 2015 as machines got bigger and hotter. A lot of the gear we now host was once "home miner" gear, but they have packed in it. (It helps that we're cheaper than most people's residential rate.)

Percentage wise who are under 10 TH? Less than 10% of the total power. But we don't do any cloud mining.

Anyway... we can argue for days but it doesn't look like any of us really know how many home miners are left. Discus fish could probably tell us about IP distribution... but they won't I'm sure!

[philipma1957]

[]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

total >>>  1307  made  normal 1264    so plus 43

 this is (+3.40%)

about ¾  there

  




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.23%)  too high as real number is +3.4%


BTC/USD: 262------- was up to 278

Adjust time:   After 609 Blocks, About 4 days left.



BTC dropped so the Greek scare may be over.


Newest  scare is Citibank looking to copy BTC and use it to move money.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/citibank-developing-cryptocurrency/

[alh]

In case this is new to other folks, I found this website that seems pretty relevant here. I haven't tried to verify it's accuracy, and the projected value does seem high, if I am reading it right. Nevertheless, it seems live a worthwhile addition:

http://nextdifficulty.com/

I kinda liked the little graph, cause it clearly shows the last 7 days, which has a definite upward trend.

[philipma1957]

In case this is new to other folks, I found this website that seems pretty relevant here. I haven't tried to verify it's accuracy, and the projected value does seem high, if I am reading it right. Nevertheless, it seems live a worthwhile addition:

http://nextdifficulty.com/

I kinda liked the little graph, cause it clearly shows the last 7 days, which has a definite upward trend.

it is interesting but the prediction is too high  5.6% is conservative and 6.1% is the best guess and 7.7% is top end.

yesterday we had a good high number of blocks 171   which is the highest number since march when we had a 176.

today we are dropping back to 140 something

https://blockchain.info/blocks

364292 -------------------18:19

363188 ------------------- 00:03

so 105 in 18 hours and 20 min  we should do 6 x 18.= 108 +2 = 110  so we are at a 138 pace for today

daily tracking is tough

but  that is what this thread is about  tracking the diff.

we did have quite a few days in a row over 144   five to be exact, but today could break that streak.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

[notlist3d]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

[Mikestang]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

Hopefully it does go down, just a little...

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

[HerbPean]

Hopefully bitwisdom goes down.  It's higher then I like to see, although it could be worse.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,745,588,728 (+4.74%)
Adjust time:    After 451 Blocks, About 2.9 days
Hashrate(?):    379,309,543 GH/s

Hopefully it does go down, just a little...

+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang

Yeah I like to pick 4,20% but i was sure that was too much for this Diff !

I was wrong... always stick to the plan !

[notlist3d]

Seems like were going the wrong way:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,733,894,841 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:    After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    384,592,869 GH/s

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

total >>>  1608 made  normal 1552    so plus 56

 this is (+3.61%)

about 4/5   there

  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------  (+4.72%)  this is about 1% higher then real number.



Adjust time:   After 399 Blocks, About 2.6 days


BTC/USD: 265


July 8 was strong 159 blocks.

[HerbPean]

It has to stop NOW !!!

[alh]

It has to stop NOW !!!

I'll get right on that, SIR!!!   

While I am at it, would you like me to adjust your weather or electricity price?

[Amph]

come one i only need it to be 2% higher  , i think i went too overboard with my prediction, 4-5 range would have been perfect

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  

        BTC/USD: 268


(+4.04%) --------------------   but this is the live number = ( +2.57%)  See http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days

here are the numbers picked:


picks now closed.  At Lboss you are the last pick:



-1.26% to -1.50% --------------------- Lboss
-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50% --------------------- tlhIlwI
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d
+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey

+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph



All picks are above   we have perfect coverage  from -1.50%  up to +4.50%

Good luck to all.

[HerbPean]

It has to stop NOW !!!

I'll get right on that, SIR!!!  

While I am at it, would you like me to adjust your weather or electricity price?

No but i can give you a BTC address to fill out with bitcoin tho !!!

hahahahaha

[notlist3d]

At least it went down some.  Hopefully it continues, Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,228,595,289 (+3.70%)
Adjust time:    After 317 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):    365,188,024 GH/s

[Last of the V8s]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

[philipma1957]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

[Last of the V8s]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

Know the feeling.
Hope they're just trying to keep the diff down, though

edit, add: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-bitfury-rasies-20-million/

[notlist3d]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

To bad they are such a quiet company we likely will have to speculate.  But it appears to be more then luck we can safely say at this point.   

It could be anything from scheduled maintenance to a more serious problem.   If in a day they are still having such low numbers I will go twords more serious.   

[HigsonPP]

I'm not sure this time. Maybe we can go all the more low again. But we need to properly analyse it. Price is rising very swiftly. That's the thing worth noticing here.

[HerbPean]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

[notlist3d]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

[Mikestang]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

I think they try and play games with the diff adjustment toward the end of the cycle.  Like HerbPean mentions, we see the same thing over and over, it can't be coincidence.

I'm sure the big players have figured out how to optimize their profits by turning some gear on and off at key times based on electricity rate and btc price.

[HerbPean]

Personally, I think someone is playing with on/off switch since a few months (hardware update or not) ... we saw that pattern so often.  They have been pushing the hashrate for the most time during the current Diff and now they are giving it a break at the end of the diff, sometime it's the reverse ... nothing at first then a big push at the end.

Well, i'm speculating here

Who would be crazy enough to shut down gear?  I think most companies greed would run them 24x7.    Turning them off is like taking a loss, I don't see the big players doing this.

My logical thinking would say the exact same thing as you mention but it seems someone is still doing it.

[philipma1957]

if you are a big player  on the mining side  fast growth of the network is not needed.  exactly what has happened  since the fall under 2% growth per diff adjustment works well.

[alh]

It would seem that this "timing" or "gaming" of the hash rate can't work long term. Somebody (e.g. SFARDS or 21 Inc) decides to start mining, then either the network grows as a result, or somebody else has to "make room". Seems kinda like OPEC, and then a new oil producing country decides to join in.

[notlist3d]

Bitfury pool luck plummeted; nothing for 6 whole hours.
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/bitfury/

maybe they had a meltdown


they could stay offline for a while

Know the feeling.
Hope they're just trying to keep the diff down, though

edit, add: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-bitfury-rasies-20-million/

Appears they are back up and hashing.  So was some bad luck or temporary problem it would seem.   Last 2.5 hours or so are where something kicked back on or them

[philipma1957]

they altered block size did one block at 974.5kb then looked like they crashed for 8 hours or so.  seems to be back up and now running 974.5kb blocks vs 135kb blocks

[wlefever]

How much can we get this +% difficulty adjustment down in the next 2 days?  Hopefully under 1%!

[alh]

So sad when a good conspiracy theory gets busted by something more mundane (i.e. facts).  

[notlist3d]

So sad when a good conspiracy theory gets busted by something more mundane (i.e. facts).  

Don't worry I'm sure there are more conspiracy's to come.   We never lack those

The difficulty is looking nicer and nicer.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,747,107,783 (+2.72%)
Adjust time:    After 281 Blocks, About 1.9 days
Hashrate(?):    355,502,608 GH/s

[philipma1957]

So sad when a good conspiracy theory gets busted by something more mundane (i.e. facts).  

Yeah looks like they are testing out software.  Oh they may have waited until today or not.  If they add huge amounts over the next 2 weeks which they may one could argue they scheduled the down time now.

We did under 140 blocks today so we dropped a bit. I will post in about an hour. with the other site's info for  the 9th


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/    >>>>>>>  has us at (+1.83%)


Blocks   364618
Total BTC   14.365M
 
Difficulty   49402014931
Estimated   50308754342 in 278 blks
 
Network total   306140.614 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.19 / 693 s >>>>>>>>>>>>>  very slow


with 278 blocks left    we are looking at sat the 11th 

[judypug1956]

I thought you were posting in an hour or so?

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

7-9-2015      132 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>  -12  bitfury seemed be offline due to a software update making its transaction size bigger

total >>>  1740 made  normal 1693    so plus 47

 this is (+2.77%)



  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+2.21%) this is lower then real number.



Adjust time:   After 271 Blocks, About 1.8 days


BTC/USD: 266


July 9 was  weak  132 blocks.

so 2.5 to 3.5  seem to be closest

[notlist3d]

And BTC hit's 286 it appears.... we hit a little rocket ship that blasted it up .  Fun to watch.

If we get this kind of price and a low difficulty chance man will this be a another week for us miners that kept mining through it.

[philipma1957]

Coins have past 291 then dropped to 284.

we have made 81 blocks so far

https://blockchain.info/blocks



we should be at 78    so not that bad.

[jonnybravo0311]

Even though I didn't pick it, I'm happy that things dropped back down to the 2.5% increase range... for a while there it really looked like we were going to see north of 5%.  Chances are exceptionally good it'll be over 50G when it happens, but with the price of BTC at $285, my S3s will remain plugged in another couple weeks

[wlefever]

Even though I didn't pick it, I'm happy that things dropped back down to the 2.5% increase range... for a while there it really looked like we were going to see north of 5%.  Chances are exceptionally good it'll be over 50G when it happens, but with the price of BTC at $285, my S3s will remain plugged in another couple weeks

I'm still hoping we can drop under 2%!  Definitely a plus the S3's(and +) can keep on churning

[notlist3d]

Even though I didn't pick it, I'm happy that things dropped back down to the 2.5% increase range... for a while there it really looked like we were going to see north of 5%.  Chances are exceptionally good it'll be over 50G when it happens, but with the price of BTC at $285, my S3s will remain plugged in another couple weeks

I'm still hoping we can drop under 2%!  Definitely a plus the S3's(and +) can keep on churning

I will be happy if we can just stay in 2's.  If so I consider that a sucess.

Current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,865,050,475 (+2.96%)
Adjust time:    After 151 Blocks, About 23.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    368,900,562 GH/s

[philipma1957]

well I checked the blockchain for the day


Height                        Time   
364753 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 20:54:57


364616 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 00:53:35


this is 138 blocks in 21 hours norm is   126


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   2.65%


143 blks left

price is 287 usd

so we are hanging there.

[notlist3d]

well I checked the blockchain for the day


Height                        Time   
364753 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 20:54:57


364616 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 00:53:35


this is 138 blocks in 21 hours norm is   126


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   2.65%


143 blks left

price is 287 usd

so we are hanging there.

The added value is very very nice suprise.   I really want to hit 300 mark and we are not to far away from it at this point.  Maybe another surge or two.

And difficulty is still moving slow... long live mining!

[Mikestang]

I'm surprised that with the btc price edging up to $300USD that we're seeing such a small diff increase, I would have thought we'd be going much higher.

[notlist3d]

I'm surprised that with the btc price edging up to $300USD that we're seeing such a small diff increase, I would have thought we'd be going much higher.

Most said it would be.  And it's a nice surprise for miners.  I even believed them and got rid of some S3's, wish I would have kept them now.

We really have had a great summer on difficulty.  We will see if it continues I sure hope it does.

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1436490653038


Height   Time   Hash

364769 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 23:46:54
364616 (Main Chain)   2015-07-10 00:53:35   



153 blocks yesterday  july 10th 2015

prices  at 286 usd

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,034,292,312 (+3.30%)
Adjust time:    After 113 Blocks, About 17.9 hours
Hashrate(?):    361,001,456 GH/s

Difficulty seems to be going up slightly.  Nothing horrible price is up but down from peak to around 283.  Still a pretty nice week.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

6-28-2015  145 blocks 144 is normal   but we were partial for sunday.

so  about 108 made  109 norm so >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  -1

6-29-2015  132 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>   -12    

6-30-2015  146 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +2
 
7- 1-2015   139 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>   -5

7-2-2015    153 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +8
 
7-3-2015    158  blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>> +14

7-4-2015    154 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>>>  +10

7-5-2015     146 blocks 144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>> + 2

7-6-2015     171 blocks  144 is normal>>>>>>>>>>>>  +27

7-7-2015     142 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> -2

7-8-2015      159 blocks 144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>> + 15

7-9-2015      132 blocks  144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>  -12  

7-10-2015    157 blocks   144 is normal >>>>>>>>>>>  +13

total >>>  1897 made  normal 1837    so plus 60

 this is (+3.26%)



  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+3.34%) this is close to the real number.



Adjust time:   After 111 Blocks, About 18 hours


BTC/USD: 279


July 10 was  strong  157 blocks.

so 3 to 4  seem to be closest


-1.26% to -1.50% --------------------- Lboss
-1.01% to -1.25% --------------------- Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% --------------------- alh
-0.51% to -0.75% --------------------  Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50% --------------------- tlhIlwI
-0.01% to -0.25% --------------------- sloopy
-------   0   ------------------------------ mavericklm
+0.01% to +0.25% ------------------- Finsky
+0.26% to +0.50% ------------------  wlefever
+0.51% to +0.75% ------------------- HerbPean
+0.76% to +1.00% ------------------  Last of The V8s
+1.01% to +1.25% ------------------- edonkey
+1.26% to +1.50% ------------------- ezminer --------------second choice as edonkey picked his first choice.
+1.51% to +1.75% ------------------- tss
+1.76% to +2.00% ------------------- Jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% ------------------- Biodom
+2.26% to +2.50% ------------------- valkir
+2.51% to +2.75% ------------------- notlist3d


+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod
+4.26% to +4.50% ------------------- Kexkey


+5.26% to +5.50%-------------------- Amph



  highlight blue has best chances to win.

some time this sat. the 11th 2015






good luck to the contenders and thanks again to suchmoon to sponsoring it.

[notlist3d]

Keeps jumping 4 is looking like a real possibility:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,301,201,525 (+3.84%)
Adjust time:    After 89 Blocks, About 14.0 hours
Hashrate(?):    370,455,816 GH/s

Price 292 though... so good there.

[freedomno1]

Keeps jumping 4 is looking like a real possibility:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:    51,301,201,525 (+3.84%)
Adjust time:    After 89 Blocks, About 14.0 hours
Hashrate(?):    370,455,816 GH/s

Price 292 though... so good there.

Price is looking good the question is if it can hit $300 next round and if the miners will adjust more to this new normal price.
(7 decreases 9 increases in difficulty since December this one would be 10)
Not that many blocks left a small change from a few mins ago.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,402,014,931
Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,340,460,182 (+3.92%)
Adjust time:   After 85 Blocks, About 13.4 hours
Hashrate(?):   371,083,140 GH/s

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/blocks

Height                       Time   
364842 (Main Chain)   2015-07-11 11:23:41   
364770 (Main Chain)   2015-07-11 00:02:13


73 blocks   in  11:41   should be 68   so we are over  the current number of

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (+3.49%)  


this was a good adjustment period while we went up say 3.5%   price went from around 265 to around 290 that is a 9% or 10 % jump

52 blocks left so figure  2 to 4 pm sat the 11th   Eastern Standard Time.

[wlefever]

Damn, I was hoping for a slightly lower increase, and REALLY would have liked a decrease 

[philipma1957]

Damn, I was hoping for a slightly lower increase, and REALLY would have liked a decrease 

looks like we will close at over 51 bill diff.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,105,383,196

(+3.45%)


Adjust time:   After 35 Blocks, About 5.5 hours

the main contenders are below:

+2.76% to +3.00% ------------------- SunnyIgor
+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho
+3.76% to +4.00% ------------------- Mikestang
+4.01% to +4.25% ------------------- EternalWingsofGod



good luck guys

[suchmoon]

This one is not that bad, 3-4%.

The next one is going to be interesting. If the exchange rate stays where it is we could be looking at 5%+ in two weeks.

[philipma1957]

This one is not that bad, 3-4%.

The next one is going to be interesting. If the exchange rate stays where it is we could be looking at 5%+ in two weeks.

yeah 3.58% may be more like 5 to 7%

If this price holds on

 BTC/USD:292.11



Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,172,260,160 (+3.58%)


After 22 Blocks, About 3.5 hours

[notlist3d]

This one is not that bad, 3-4%.

The next one is going to be interesting. If the exchange rate stays where it is we could be looking at 5%+ in two weeks.

yeah 3.58% may be more like 5 to 7%

If this price holds on

 BTC/USD:292.11



Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,172,260,160 (+3.58%)


After 22 Blocks, About 3.5 hours

I think I'm going to be pretty happy as far as this difficulty change.   To have it over 290 and +3 ish on difficulty is not bad.

I just really would like to see it break 300 in next difficulty.  It does have a chance to.

[philipma1957]

3 blocks left

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(+3.23%)


a 2 maybe 3 person race


+3.01% to +3.25% ------------------- zebedee
+3.26% to +3.50% ------------------- wpt1wpt1
+3.51% to +3.75% ------------------- kenscho

[wpt1wpt1]

Think I got it,   Yooohooooo

1NE8bAvANFxmtiEeEsjphK8zYouzUAwK6C

[philipma1957]

Think I got it,   Yooohooooo

1NE8bAvANFxmtiEeEsjphK8zYouzUAwK6C

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s



congrats.

Suchmoon should pay some time today.

[Lboss]

Congrats to winner, so we have just passed 50m diff. with these prices , I believe we can see another + next time. Just my 2 satoshis 

[philipma1957]

Congrats to winner, so we have just passed 50m diff. with these prices , I believe we can see another + next time. Just my 2 satoshis 

yeah with 290-300 we will go up.

@ the winner lets us know when suchmoon  settles out with you.  I will then close this and open the new one up.

[suchmoon]

Think I got it,   Yooohooooo

1NE8bAvANFxmtiEeEsjphK8zYouzUAwK6C

Congrats wpt1wpt1!

Please give me a couple of hours, I'm away from my wallets at the moment.

[notlist3d]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s

Not to bad of a difficulty change.  And were still above 290 so  that is good.

Will be interesting to see what next change has in mind for us all.

[wpt1wpt1]

suchmoon,

No problem I am stoked just to win. stupid looking victory dance Brag Brag etc. etc.

[Mikestang]

Congrats, that was the closest I've ever been to winning.

If you had told me 6 months ago we'd be in the middle of summer with btc over 290USD and diff changes less than +5% I wouldn't have believed you.

[freedomno1]

suchmoon,

No problem I am stoked just to win. stupid looking victory dance Brag Brag etc. etc.

Congrats on your win and have a great victory dance 

[notlist3d]

Congrats, that was the closest I've ever been to winning.

If you had told me 6 months ago we'd be in the middle of summer with btc over 290USD and diff changes less than +5% I wouldn't have believed you.

This is very very true.  It seemed everyone talked about a much much higher difficulty change.

I listened to a point but glad I kept most of my miners.  We will see but next difficulty I really want to hit 300, that would be very nice.

[freedomno1]

Congrats, that was the closest I've ever been to winning.

If you had told me 6 months ago we'd be in the middle of summer with btc over 290USD and diff changes less than +5% I wouldn't have believed you.

This is very very true.  It seemed everyone talked about a much much higher difficulty change.

I listened to a point but glad I kept most of my miners.  We will see but next difficulty I really want to hit 300, that would be very nice.

Don't wait we just hit $300 right now
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD
$303.22USD

Literally broke through a few minutes ago U_U trading simulator chalks this one as my error lol.

[notlist3d]

Congrats, that was the closest I've ever been to winning.

If you had told me 6 months ago we'd be in the middle of summer with btc over 290USD and diff changes less than +5% I wouldn't have believed you.

This is very very true.  It seemed everyone talked about a much much higher difficulty change.

I listened to a point but glad I kept most of my miners.  We will see but next difficulty I really want to hit 300, that would be very nice.

Don't wait we just hit $300 right now
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD
$303.22USD

Literally broke through a few minutes ago U_U trading simulator chalks this one as my error lol.

I guess wish and we shall recieve!  Wow that is a great mark to hit once again.

Low difficulty change and over 300.  Time to party yet?

[freedomno1]

Congrats, that was the closest I've ever been to winning.

If you had told me 6 months ago we'd be in the middle of summer with btc over 290USD and diff changes less than +5% I wouldn't have believed you.

This is very very true.  It seemed everyone talked about a much much higher difficulty change.

I listened to a point but glad I kept most of my miners.  We will see but next difficulty I really want to hit 300, that would be very nice.

Don't wait we just hit $300 right now
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD
$303.22USD

Literally broke through a few minutes ago U_U trading simulator chalks this one as my error lol.

I guess wish and we shall recieve!  Wow that is a great mark to hit once again.

Low difficulty change and over 300.  Time to party yet?

A little longer we need to wait for the $420 threads to come back to life
It has all the weed and smoke
(Then after that the $1000/coin Bitcoin party in Las Vegas that we delayed for a few years for a hard core party ^^)
Still $300 is on the way there and good for mining

[suchmoon]

suchmoon,

No problem I am stoked just to win. stupid looking victory dance Brag Brag etc. etc.

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/ffef6ae07ea03156026e9393c71b034b4682839d63c6415b8d437791499977a3

Congratulations again and thanks for participating.

[EternalWingsofGod]

This one is not that bad, 3-4%.

The next one is going to be interesting. If the exchange rate stays where it is we could be looking at 5%+ in two weeks.

Quite, it will be fun to see how the difficulty changes in the next round.
Good round looking forward to the next thread

[philipma1957]

Okay this round is done

new round is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1118074.0