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Author Topic: how beatable is this market?  (Read 1645 times)
Xiaoxiao
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June 01, 2011, 09:47:40 AM
 #1

I need help because I am considering trading as a source of income as you all well know, the job market is not good right now.  Any sincere help would be greatly appreciated.  I have been studying diligently but I dont know what is a winning formula.

For example, is this market better than the currency market?  Do you advise against trading by "instinct"?

I hope to become someone's protege in day trading, and maybe take my knowledge to the exchange some day.  I hope fellow day traders can help each other out.

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Dansker
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June 01, 2011, 12:36:04 PM
 #2

1. Don't bet more than you can lose
2. nothing is certain
3. someone else is smarter than you, and has already thought of what you are doing

Xiaoxiao
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June 01, 2011, 12:58:36 PM
 #3

1. Don't bet more than you can lose
2. nothing is certain
3. someone else is smarter than you, and has already thought of what you are doing

good points, does this mean i should give up?

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billyjoeallen
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June 01, 2011, 01:42:07 PM
 #4

currency trading when the exchange take a 0.69% commission of every trade is a recipre for going broke fast. Money is the most liquid asset in the world by definition. The Forex for example charges a lower commission and 100X margin. Yes, I know that's really not possible with the volatility of BTC (due to small market cap), but that's just another reason why it's a losing bet- so far. If Mt. Gox improves (lowers comissions, expidites trades, allows puts and margin, etc), OR if another echange opens up that is better, it might MIGHT be possible for you to profit on trading. I hope it will be.

insert coin here:
1Ctd7Na8qE7btyueEshAJF5C7ZqFWH11Wc

Open an exchange account at CampBX: options, lowest commissions, and best security
https://campbx.com/register.php?r=0Y7YxohTV0B
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June 01, 2011, 10:27:30 PM
 #5

One makes money trading because somebody else is willing to take a bad deal.  This happens because they are motivated (need to do the trade for outside reasons), don't have all the information you do, have the information but have come to bad conclusions, or are just dumb and not thinking.  Bitcoins are currently used by "geeks" aka smart people.  Thus, you are unlikely to find trades that are good for you.  Trades you THINK are good are probably going to end up bad or breakeven for you, and the other guy simply has more information than you do.

When I first started in bitcoin, I traded bitcoins for paypal at an amazing rate and thought I'd made out like a bandit.  Then I realized that the guy I'd done business with had extra information that I didn't, ie the fact that Paypal allows chargebacks.

Still, trading will be profitable in the forseeable future, but not because the trading itself is profitable, but because bitcoins are going up in value.  If you're playing a +EV game, it doesn't matter how you structure the betting.

IIOII
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June 02, 2011, 10:33:17 AM
 #6

Trading is a risky business. This is true for the established markets, but it's even more true for the highly volatile Bitcoin market.
Trading is not a one-way street. The majority of traders loses money.

From my point of view you should give up the trading idea! Maybe it's better to buy and hold Bitcoins, but this also is very risky.

I would only invest money that's not needed into Bitcoins.

Dansker
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June 02, 2011, 04:50:43 PM
 #7

1. Don't bet more than you can lose
2. nothing is certain
3. someone else is smarter than you, and has already thought of what you are doing

good points, does this mean i should give up?

No it does not, as long as you only bet what you can afford to lose, and then set out your goals beforehand (When will I sell if it goes down, when will I sell if it goes up?) you should be fine.

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