Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013

[SlaveInDebt]

Current Network ~20T/h
Estimated GPU's ~15T/h -75% leaving come block halving and ASIC hitting = ~11T/h of GPU's go offline.
Listed BFL PreOrder's ~46T/h figure easily half aren't listed so x2 = 92T/h

4-5 fold increase in difficulty or 80T/h by the end of the year assuming BFL ship's all current preorders this year and no other ASIC's hit prior to 2013.

Or if BFL is a long con a slight drop in difficulty.

[yrtrnc]

Notice how most people vote for the numbers in the middle! I wonder if they have done their calculations?

[Morblias]

Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders.

Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so.

Wow! I was predicting 40x, but now that he said that I may have to recalculate my ROI guesstimate numbers.

[bitboyben]

FYI my previous post and guesses

This is what I tried to use as the rough middle point...

I'd love to see what math people used to come up with their estimates, especially the 100x people.

Maybe they are thinking about this topic in a new and different way that makes them come up with different numbers.
Say $ invested in GPUs sold at loss then converted to ASICs? 100x is still possible... we have no way of confirming orders that are not reported.
Maybe some crazy bastard bought $500,000 worth of Mini Rigs...

Maybe I can assume hash rate to $ then sell those imaginary GPUs at a reasonable loss and convert directly to ASICs?

Keeping it simple as I can.
IMHO

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

Approx 2500 orders there will be more orders as time goes on of course but then every order number doesn't = an actual unit.

I just assumed the SC single per order = 40Ghash

So I'm gonna give it a range

1250-3000 orders

50 Thash -> 120Thash  4-10X difficulty

Personally I think most GPUs will become unprofitable at the lower end of that threshold and I'm not sure how many FPGAs are out there so I'd say -80% of the current hash rate based on GPUs will dissolve. So +/- on that by 20%

As for Shipping times: BFL gave themselves till OCT +2 months and according to our records they are about two weeks slower than they say 4-6 weeks = 6-8 weeks.

I'd say the very first shipments for the first month of orders will start shipping last week of Sept until as late as the start of the new year. (Oct + 2 months plus "awe screw it it's only two more weeks late" factor)
There's roughly 2000 orders for the first month that technically need to be shipped by the end of that period. But If they get the first batch out the door close to their stated targets then would the guys further down the order list really ask for their money back at that point?

So I'm thinking
4-10X difficulty increase (+/- 20% Hash) between Oct 2012 and Feb 2013

But what happens over the following Six months should be interesting...
If you just tripled your return on your initial BFL product by being an early adopter wouldn't it make sense to buy MORE while the difficulty is low so that when things stabilize you'll have a bigger slice of the pie?

I think the graph of total hash power will look surprisingly similar to the above. Spike, small dip, flatten out with easy rise.

[bitboyben]

Ok So here's what I got...

Mh/$ GPU hardware acquisition cost converted to ASICs
In this scenario every one broke even on their hardware, then pocketed the profit and resold the old GPU rigs and immediately re-invested in ASICs

The average Mh/$ ratio for GPU is ~1.74
The average Mh/$ ratio for ASIC used here is 46 (because I felt like it)

~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards.

IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio

The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x

*clearly I have not added Data for FPGAs-> ASICs
*Does not include new money invested or mining profits re-invested
*Does not account for GPU depreciation
*Not sure how power use/efficiency affects these numbers
*Data is from https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison

Just a thought: Maybe the money in switching from GPUs to ASIC is in power savings? In which case ASIC designers/buyers will eventually be just as obsessed with GH/J Ratio as we all were with GPUs

[bitboyben]

60GH = $140/mo?
ROI 9.3 Months?

[yrtrnc]

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

[bitboyben]

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information.
Plus only BFL...

[benco]

~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards.

IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio

The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x

please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining..

in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case..

b.

[yrtrnc]

The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012

And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it.

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information.
Plus only BFL...

[bitboyben]

~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards.

IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio

The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x

please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining..

in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case..

b.

I think lots of guys are just going ahead and upgrading to the 30GH machines...
Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly...

[bitboyben]

The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012

And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it.

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information.
Plus only BFL...

Yes, I agree that it is mostly BFL. I guess the 27x is more forward looking and I should stay on my own topic. I did after all make a time frame for the poll and I don't think it will be 27x at the date indicated.

[benco]

Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly...

OK, it depend on what do you mean under 'profitable', since with this difficulty the ROI for Jalapeno is 12+ months (without electricity costs) and this applies only in case if difficulty stays at this level and will not increase.. 12 months is too much, have you any idea how fast and energy efficient ASICs will be on market at the end of 2013? after 6 months on the market Japalenos will be good only as a paperweight

[SuperTramp]

This all depends on how fast BFL ships out the current pre-orders.