Info about BFL Power Draw

[sLide.]

Does anyone have any information about predicted power draw of the SC's? 

[1715579112]

1715579112

[crazyates]

All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.

[sLide.]

All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.

Keeping the 80W draw in mind, 

Bitcoin difficulty : 5388095.905910 (Once it doubles)
Drop is reward : 25

Keeping in mind that the Conversion rate doesn't change ( Which it probably will) 11.84 per bitcoin

Mining at 3.5Ghash/s

Power Consumption : 80w
Electricity rate: .15kWh

Time Frame: 18 months

Cost of mining hardware : 168 USD

That will return you close to 1,000 dollars. 

Not a bad investment.  With a 18month turn around. 

[crazyates]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

[sLide.]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling.  I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little.  As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. 

[crazyates]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling.  I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little.  As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. 

When doing my own calcs, I've been counting on a 10x increase. I'd rather it be lower and get more than I expected than to get my hopes up and be disappointed.

[Unacceptable]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling.  I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little.  As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. 

When doing my own calcs, I've been counting on a 10x increase. I'd rather it be lower and get more than I expected than to get my hopes up and be disappointed.

I've been thinking around 10,000,000 difficulty at least= 120 TH network total by late Nov early Dec 

Until Jan/Feb/March,then maybe 300 TH network total=40,000,000 difficulty 

[Luceo]

All we know is that it won't be more than their current products, so < 80W for the SC Single, and < 1250W for the SC MR.

Keeping the 80W draw in mind, 

Bitcoin difficulty : 5388095.905910 (Once it doubles)
Drop is reward : 25

Keeping in mind that the Conversion rate doesn't change ( Which it probably will) 11.84 per bitcoin

Mining at 3.5Ghash/s

Power Consumption : 80w
Electricity rate: .15kWh

Time Frame: 18 months

Cost of mining hardware : 168 USD

That will return you close to 1,000 dollars. 

Not a bad investment.  With a 18month turn around. 

The 80W draw quoted is for the Single. The 3.5GH you've used is for the Jalapeno, which is USB powered (assuming USB3, that's less than 4.5W).

You'll probably see difficulty increase at minimum tenfold within 3 months of first product shipping.

[crazyates]

The 80W draw quoted is for the Single. The 3.5GH you've used is for the Jalapeno, which is USB powered (assuming USB3, that's less than 4.5W).

You'll probably see difficulty increase at minimum tenfold within 3 months of first product shipping.

Damn idk why I didn't catch that! That bumps his profit numbers up another 150. Again, I think that's too optimistic, but w/e.

[OneMINER]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Serial_Bus#USB_3.0

Possibly 7.5W for a jalapeno. Maximum current on the bus is 25W at 5V.

[Gabi]

I think difficulty will sky rocket.  10 fold minimum, just in the next few months

this

[hahahafr]

It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.

[runeks]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling.  I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little.  As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. 

Why would the difficulty ever decrease after a spike, unless you expect people to turn off their miners?

[crazyates]

I'm assuming you're just plugging those numbers into here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Now remember that the difficulty is expected to more than just double. Try sticking another 1 in front of that difficulty, or lowering the profitability decline down to 0.20.

They are great little units by today's standards! But you wont make $1000USD over 18 months..

I'm hoping that the difficulty doesn't go too much further than doubling.  I know the ASCI will cause a spike, but it will settle after a little.  As in every market, new technology will cause surge but the market will come to a balance again. 

Why would the difficulty ever decrease after a spike, unless you expect people to turn off their miners?

By "settle" I don't think he meant "decrease". I read that as when the difficulty will jump up, eventually it has to level out somewhere. It might take 6 months, but eventually the difficulty will stabilize.

[Korbman]

I think difficulty will sky rocket.  10 fold minimum, just in the next few months

Very much likely. In my analysis last month I predicted 7x increase minimum, but 10-12 is more likely.
Reference: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit

It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.

And where can we find these calculations?

[HDSolar]

I think difficulty will sky rocket.  10 fold minimum, just in the next few months

Very much likely. In my analysis last month I predicted 7x increase minimum, but 10-12 is more likely.
Reference: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit

It will. Closer to 30x based on my calculations.

And where can we find these calculations?

I would like to know too, I have been seeing the 10X quote allot but the 30x is new.

[Inaba]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

[SkRRJyTC]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

0 points

SHOW YOUR WORK

</middleschoolmath>

 

[Korbman]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Pretty much. The way I originally calculated it out, the 10x comes from not only the preorders posted by BFL, but also from other ASIC ventures, and all over the course of 12 months or so. I think I'll rework my numbers at the end of October/November, assuming more data is put out to the public (such as raw numbers on preorders/sales from BFL and other ASIC companies).

[VeeMiner]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

glad to hear that