Is it even worth it to buy/order an ASIC single now?

[RoboCoder]

The biggest unknown here is how quickly the ASICs ship.  If the majority of preorders (up until the end of October) can be filled within a few weeks then you have a fighting chance of recouping your investment.  Otherwise it's anyone's guess (and the odds aren't great).

Butterfly Labs says in its FAQ they're in the hardware business therefore don't keep the ASICs and mine for themselves.  Complete nonsense.  They're just following the age old example of gold rushes where the only people guaranteed to make a lot of money were the ones selling shovels, and other mining related hardware.  Most prospectors went away empty handed.

We're the miners and BFL is selling the shovels.

and the best part is.. in modern day the "shovels" were bought and paid for months ago

So really, they are selling "shovel futures"....

[1714911701]

1714911701

[1714911701]

1714911701

[mrb]

I've seen no good news about a guy that just wants to run a single rig at his house to have some fun, make a little BTC to pay off the rig.

I think the days of the hobbyist miner are gone.

No. Hobbyists will still have a place.

You have to understand that when you spend $1 on an ASIC product, whether it is on a tiny Single SC, or on a large MiniRig SC, you get roughly the same amount of mining performance: respectively 31 and 33 Mhash/s. Therefore, large or big miners generate similar amount of profits.

And in fact, small miners are generally more profitable than large miners, as they don't have overhead costs. Eg. the teenager mining on the family PC does not pay directly for electricity (his parents do) and does not have to rent space in a datacenter to host his hardware.

[HorseRider]

OP, I think you're right. you can wait for the sharp price declining of the ASIC mining rigs.

[kwoody]

People need to remember that Bitcoin is still in an experimental beta phase. If Bitcoin survives to version 1.0, make your educated guesses then.

[Desolator]

OP, I think you're right. you can wait for the sharp price declining of the ASIC mining rigs.

I seriously doubt that.  The payoff period would be around 3 months tops and that's at almost 9x the current total hashing power of the network (so 9x difficulty).  No GPU or FPGA that I know of past or present could beat that.  So I think $149 is where the low end ones are staying.

[opentoe]

One thing I have going for me is free electricity and Internet service. I could operate my mining rig remotely. I've never seen so many people put out thousands of dollars for something that hasn't even been made yet. It brings a whole new meaning to the word "pre-order". I guess when dealing with money, people certainly act different. Just the lure of making some money in the first few months when the new ASIC's drop apparently makes people drop a ton of money to some company with no guarantees. Nothing else exists like that in the world, except with drug dealers maybe.


I guess I may order a couple SC's when they are actually available. I left BFL a couple of messages weeks ago and have not heard a peep from them. Just imagine a few of their employees, getting those first ASIC units, taking them home. I know I would.

[os2sam]

One thing I have going for me is free electricity and Internet service. I could operate my mining rig remotely. I've never seen so many people put out thousands of dollars for something that hasn't even been made yet. It brings a whole new meaning to the word "pre-order". I guess when dealing with money, people certainly act different. Just the lure of making some money in the first few months when the new ASIC's drop apparently makes people drop a ton of money to some company with no guarantees. Nothing else exists like that in the world, except with drug dealers maybe.


I guess I may order a couple SC's when they are actually available.

I was wondering if you were going to return or not.  Now you've posted something I agree with.  It is strange and a bit of a leap of faith.  But that has been the nature of Bitcoin from the get go.

If you can afford a couple $1.3K SC's your much richer than me, so I hope if they come to fruition that they help you get richer.  I'll muddle through with a couple Jalapenos when/if they come through.
Sam

[Desolator]

Amen, Sam!  Hurray for us poor people! If you've got the money for massive hardware preorders, you've got enough money! Just buy the bitcoins, don't mine them, lol.

[Frequency]

One thing I have going for me is free electricity and Internet service. I could operate my mining rig remotely. I've never seen so many people put out thousands of dollars for something that hasn't even been made yet. It brings a whole new meaning to the word "pre-order". I guess when dealing with money, people certainly act different. Just the lure of making some money in the first few months when the new ASIC's drop apparently makes people drop a ton of money to some company with no guarantees. Nothing else exists like that in the world, except with drug dealers maybe.


I guess I may order a couple SC's when they are actually available. I left BFL a couple of messages weeks ago and have not heard a peep from them. Just imagine a few of their employees, getting those first ASIC units, taking them home. I know I would.

U are right about that... i am sceptical about this issue to, lots of people put there savingings into this, strange but we will see in about 2 or 3 months, if it is for real then i need even more questions to be askbefore putting my btc or money in to it... how about the reliability of these divices are they tested for this, how long can they do 24/7 how about spare parts ect. ect. what are the guarantees of these products...it,s al unknown yet thousands paid ahead for them..smart or naive??

[VeeMiner]

It's definitely still worth it...

[Fcx35x10]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

[Frequency]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

[Desolator]

I think we need to break this down in 1 post.  Here's what makes it a good or bad idea:
1. will the devices actually ship from the vendor you're considering and in a reasonable timeframe - probably, except the ones that say Q1 or Q1 2013 which will be waaaaaaaaaay too late to make the most money

2. will the device operate for 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, years without breaking? - nobody knows.  They're 1st generation experimental devices backed by small companies without any warranties.

And here's the winner right here
3. Almost all devices, at current difficulty rates and BTC prices, will pay for themselves in like 14 days.  But that's the way idiots calculate it.  From that baseline, what will be the total increase factor in the total computational power of the system which will scale the difficulty accordingly? - Well, according to just the total number of pre-orders that are publicly known, if every device works instantly, ships out all at once, and fires up perfectly, we're looking at a bare minimum of a 20x increase, likely closer to 50x.  It's the high end rigs that are really driving it up but the 14k Jalapenos aren't helping either.  50x is a 700 day break even period.  The bitcoin block reward is about to drop to 25 instead of 50 so that puts it to 1400 days.  So, everyone who doesn't start mining with an ASIC before the first difficulty increase is screwed.  So for everyone who has a pre-order right now, I'd say on a scale from 1 to 10 on how screwed you are with 1 being money money money green dolla dolla bills y'all and 10 being royally fucked, I'd say 10 - royally fucked

So no, don't buy any ASICs and if you can get your pre-order refunded, do it, unless you're very confident your vendor and your pre-order will be filled before anyone else's.

I might make a separate thread about this for all the people here (everyone apparently) who can't do math.

[Fcx35x10]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

[Frequency]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

                        ^  ^  ^
look 5 posts up   I   I   I

[crazyates]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

[Frequency]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

i sure know you do.... but u are wrong informed about me .. find me@ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110752.20

[crazyates]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

i sure now you do but u are wrong informed about me .. :Dfind me@ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110752.20

doing 1000+ $ a month 

OK So you've got 10.5GH/s. That is $1000+ USD a month, like you said. In 2 months, thats going to go down to about $100 USD a month. What are you going to do then? Mine on your GPUs, paying more in electric than what you're getting in BTC? Sell your GPUs, and wait 2 months for ASICs while the difficulty (and hopefully price) go up?

Which one will have more coins 4 months from now?
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> Continue to mine on GPUs for 2 more months, in spite of skyrocketing difficulty -> In 4 months, still mining with 10.5GHs.
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> sell GPUs when ASICs hit, order ASICs, and wait 2 more months of no mining -> After 4 months, just starting to mine with 200GH/s.
Option 2: Sell GPUs now, and not mine for 2 months -> Get ASIC preorders, and start mining at 200GH/s for 2 more months -> After 4 months, I've got 200GH/s, and enough from the initial profitability to order more ASICs with ease.

[Frequency]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

i sure now you do but u are wrong informed about me .. :Dfind me@ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110752.20

doing 1000+ $ a month 

OK So you've got 10.5GH/s. That is $1000+ USD a month, like you said. In 2 months, thats going to go down to about $100 USD a month. What are you going to do then? Mine on your GPUs, paying more in electric than what you're getting in BTC? Sell your GPUs, and wait 2 months for ASICs while the difficulty (and hopefully price) go up?

Which one will have more coins 4 months from now?
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> Continue to mine on GPUs for 2 more months, in spite of skyrocketing difficulty -> In 4 months, still mining with 10.5GHs.
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> sell GPUs when ASICs hit, order ASICs, and wait 2 more months of no mining -> After 4 months, just starting to mine with 200GH/s.
Option 2: Sell GPUs now, and not mine for 2 months -> Get ASIC preorders, and start mining at 200GH/s for 2 more months -> After 4 months, I've got 200GH/s, and enough from the initial profitability to order more ASICs with ease.

Well.. i adjust as i do now..and i do have some bucks left to keep beeing a medium miner also if everything U say will come true...

and i am in it for the long run..and If asic will be around by the 2nd q of 2013 no skyrocket has been taking my 10,5 gh down to $100,- as u predict for at least 3+ months... but any way we still can be friends you know.. i am just more sceptical then you are thats all...

[Fcx35x10]

i have 2 BFL single SC and a jalapeno on the way. Thinking about getting a bASIC 54 some time this week too. think it's a good idea?  

no

could u please explain?

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

Before you go and label me as one of "those" people. I actually started mining about 2 months ago. started with a small gpu rig about 700 Mhash/s (friend's PC). Now im roughly pumping 2 ghash/s and adding each day. I so far spent absolutely NO money on mining.. I mine with my university's electricity and friend's hardware. I'm sorry you cant be in my position, nor do I care about your current situation. My question was generally out of concern.. Didn't need a smart ass pointing out my sig and depict me as an outsider.

As for my investments on 2 BFL Single SC, a jalapeno, and perhaps another ASIC units. I'm generally on the same page and want clarity like everyone else.

I hope to be on the same page. I might be still new to BTC but this is not rocket science.

I want to believe that if you cant afford it, then don't bother doing it. I guess it is just the risk. Ultimately, more power to those people who are willing to take risk and can afford it. F*** what others think.. haters gon hate.  

Option 4a: Continue mining with no F***s given. Order ASIC (a few quantity per month. perhaps from other companies besides BFL). Sit back, relax, and puff puff pass.