Butterfly Labs Pre-Sales Not Covered by Paypal?

[RyanRed]

Hey all,

Bufferfly labs released a picture of their Jalapeno via their Facebook page yesterday. Here https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471626712869140&set=a.471626709535807.109652.470018806363264&type=1&theater

I've been so back and forth in weather or not I should pre-order. I truly want an ASIC SC Single like there's no tomorrow, but still scared to throw 1,300 dollars down on an item we know very little about. I figure do a tester Jalapeno sale first. I also think you myself, "Hell, Ill just pay with Paypal. I'll be protected!" But I am now finding out this is not the case. I pulled this up right from PayPal's website.

Does PayPal permit transactions for pre-sale items?

    Pre-sale items are advertised for sale before the seller has the items. Often, these items are sold before they are available to the general public. Or, the seller uses the funds from the sale to purchase the item that has already been sold.
     
    PayPal permits pre-sales on a limited basis, only if the seller guarantees delivery within 20 days from the date of purchase and clearly identifies the item as a pre-sale. PayPal may apply additional conditions, such as proof of the seller's ability to successfully deliver the product: supplier information, purchase invoices, postal information or proof of delivery.

Located at this URL https://www.paypal.com/helpcenter/main.jsp;jsessionid=ycyGQpycKN2PGMhxLNHGnGtPLyQTvgJnxSggXtbRgSsGM2t14V3l!-814418063?locale=en_GB&_dyncharset=UTF-8&countrycode=GB&cmd=_help&serverInstance=9010&t=solutionTab&ft=browseTab&ps=solutionPanels&solutionId=163756&isSrch=Yes


So I don't know what to do . I currently have 1 6750 video card, and it takes me 20 days to get 1 bitcoin hahaha. I finally hit .5 just today lol! I really want to get going here, but keep finding myself questioning doing a pre-order. Its pretty lame I can't just put in a pre-order, and have ease of mind. I also thought about doing this: Order up a FPGA Single, and then next month put in an upgrade order for the SC Single paying the difference. This way I can mine a "little bit faster" now, but also be able to trade in if and when ASICs hits. But then again, ordering at the end of next month puts me so far back at the end of the line. What to do what to do... I also found this link that someone posted on the Butterfly Labs Facebook page from the Bitcoin conference.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT-smMzg54k&feature=colike

This video seems a little reassuring even if I ordered later.

BAH! I feel like Im stuck between a rock and a hard spot on what I can do to get going here as as fast as possible. You all have scared me that Butterfly Labs may be a scam, yet I want to believe they will deliver on these ASICs very badly. Plus I want to get going asap due to my lack of hardware. .5 coins in 10 days just sucks hahaha.

Anyways the primary point of this was to point out that PayPal will not back you it seems, I hope this laid out some incite for some.

-Ryan

[Vod]

Paypal does not back anything bitcoin, regardless of their written policies.

[Puppet]

Interesting find, would love to hear BFLs response. However, if anything this would make you more secure in being able to get a paypal refund, because the seller appears to be violating paypal's policy. I dont think this is an increased risk for you as a buyer, quite the contrary.

That said, its probably wise to think 2 or 3 times before ordering. Not because I think its a scam (I dont believe it is), but because I very much doubt many miners will get a positive ROI on their asics.

[RyanRed]

Interesting find, would love to hear BFLs response. However, if anything this would make you more secure in being able to get a paypal refund, because the seller appears to be violating paypal's policy. I dont think this is an increased risk for you as a buyer, quite the contrary.

That said, its probably wise to think 2 or 3 times before ordering. Not because I think its a scam (I dont believe it is), but because I very much doubt many miners will get a positive ROI on their asics.

Thats what I was sorta wondering too because they are clearly violating the terms. Makes me wonder how they are even able to take pre-orders through paypal currently.

[Stephen Gornick]

PayPal permits pre-sales on a limited basis, only if the seller guarantees delivery within 20 days from the date of purchase and clearly identifies the item as a pre-sale. PayPal may apply additional conditions, such as proof of the seller's ability to successfully deliver the product: supplier information, purchase invoices, postal information or proof of delivery.[/i]

What that says is that BFL is either unaware of that policy or is accepting pre-sales orders regardless, essentially playing chicken with PayPal.  What PayPal might do is hold a reserve against each of the payments. 


But that doesn't mean you as the customer are any less protected than if PayPal did allow it. 

If you pay with a credit card you are even more protected ... you can issue a chargeback within 60 days of your first statement showing the charge.

Now whether it makes economic sense to buy an ASIC, that's purely speculation at this point.

[RyanRed]

Well I bit the bullet, and ordered 1 Jalapeno. $150+shipping is something I can afford to lose. As for the SC, Ill just wait it out.

My order # was 9030 if anyone wanted to know what they are up to.

[Ivica]

Here https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471626712869140&set=a.471626709535807.109652.470018806363264&type=1&theater

So you've bought photoshoped apple tv device?

[RyanRed]

Its seem so man hahaha.

[RyanRed]

I can justify 150 bucks. As much as I want an SC, I cant see myself shelling out that kind of money until I at least see this Jalapeno. Im still very skeptical on its arrival. Since Im currently order number 9030, even if I did order Im looking at months and months before I would get it. Ill just wait it out, and see if this Jalapeno shows up or not. Once people are showing off their pictures of the SC, I'll go ahead and order.

[maqifrnswa]

Paypal does not back anything bitcoin, regardless of their written policies.

We're pre-ordering 256-bit SHA hashing machines. Physical & real products - who said anything about bitcoins?

[BitcoinINV]

Here https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471626712869140&set=a.471626709535807.109652.470018806363264&type=1&theater

So you've bought photoshoped apple tv device?

Someone posted that picture in a thread on here just to watch it explode and said so in the thread lol. Think it was in the BFL townhall post or the Sonny v. thread

[rynmln]

Order #9030 eh?

Assuming those are all for jalapeño pre-orders... multiply that by $149 and you come up with $1,345,470. Dayum. w/ shipping it's somewhere around $1.4 million. Not sure what portion of that is through paypal but I'm sure they've noticed it's happening.

I'm order #7661...

[Puppet]

Order #9030 eh?

Assuming those are all for jalapeño pre-orders... multiply that by $149

I would multiply it by 3.5GH. If that order number really would mean 9000+ preordered asics, then thats at the very least 31TH from BFL alone. Factor in singles and minirigs and the fact many customers would have ordered multple devices per order and it might be closer to 100TH.  From BFL alone.. 

[kaerf]

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

[Bogart]

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

I did some crunching on those numbers in that thread, to extrapolate and predict the revenue received based on the available data, and arrived at this:

Product                        Qty  Dollar value
Jalapenos:                     208  $30992
Singles:                       108  $140292
Single trade-ins:              118  $76641
Mini Rigs:                     6    $173400
Mini Rig trade-ins:            15   $216750
Documented total orders:       455  $638075
Value of average item ordered:      $1402.36263736264
Inferred total orders:         7029 $9857206.97802198

That does not adjust for orders that may be unpaid, refunded, duplicate, or otherwise invalid.  If you were to discount 20% of the orders, that would be about $7.88m received.

If you extrapolate a bit further (again not accounting for invalid orders) you can calculate:


Product                    Qty  Hashrate (GHps)
Inferred Jalapenos:        3213 11246
Inferred Singles:          3491 139653
Inferred Mini Rigs:        324  324415
Totals:                    7029 475314

[Meatball]

Paypal protects buyers for up to 45 days period.  After that, you are SoL, and since you won't see delivery for 3-6 months, you're not going to get any protection from PayPal.  You're only possibility of protection is to use your Credit Card as your payment and hope that your CC company is willing to let you dispute the charges on a 3-6 month old charge.

[YokoToriyama]

PayPal permits pre-sales on a limited basis, only if the seller guarantees delivery within 20 days from the date of purchase and clearly identifies the item as a pre-sale. PayPal may apply additional conditions, such as proof of the seller's ability to successfully deliver the product: supplier information, purchase invoices, postal information or proof of delivery.

yes.. if you read this correctly i would not be worried, so many people paid via paypal and if this pre order never
meets that bank account will even get frozen.

[Reckman]

Just pay using a Credit Card through paypal....call the CC company and they will call paypal for you. It doesn't matter what Paypal's terms are.

[RyanRed]

if you take the numbers from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 as a sample, you find that there are actually more single SC units being sold than jallys (also straight order numbers doesn't take into account multiple units per order). hash rate will be even higher...

of course there are lots of unfilled orders from 0-9000, so they don't actually have 9000 real orders..lots of failed orders are part of that number. I think BFL_engineer said they had something like 5k units on order or something like that last week.

I did some crunching on those numbers in that thread, to extrapolate and predict the revenue received based on the available data, and arrived at this:

Product                        Qty  Dollar value
Jalapenos:                     208  $30992
Singles:                       108  $140292
Single trade-ins:              118  $76641
Mini Rigs:                     6    $173400
Mini Rig trade-ins:            15   $216750
Documented total orders:       455  $638075
Value of average item ordered:      $1402.36263736264
Inferred total orders:         7029 $9857206.97802198

That does not adjust for orders that may be unpaid, refunded, duplicate, or otherwise invalid.  If you were to discount 20% of the orders, that would be about $7.88m received.

If you extrapolate a bit further (again not accounting for invalid orders) you can calculate:


Product                    Qty  Hashrate (GHps)
Inferred Jalapenos:        3213 11246
Inferred Singles:          3491 139653
Inferred Mini Rigs:        324  324415
Totals:                    7029 475314

So... 475 Terahash increase?! Damn man, when you look at it like that it makes buying just one SC single almost pointless. Hell the Jalapeno would be like what a CPU does today. It seems unless you have 10's of thousands of dollars to put into this that mining isnt even worth it. And even then, how will the people that spent that much even be able to get a return on their money. I wanted to buy a SC single, and had plans to at the end of October, but seeing it laid out like this almost makes it seem pointless. The hash rate currently is around 21 terahash. So if we divide this 475 terahash estimate by 21(today) we get around 22. The network will increase 22x in speed judging by your those speculated numbers. So if I take what 40 g/hash yeilds right now and divide by 22, I can get a good idea what a SC single will do. So lets see. 40g/has today gets you 14 bitcoins a day. Divide by 22, and we have .63 a day.

Is my math rigth here, or am I just completely wrong? Im still very much new to all of this, so it wouldnt suprise me if I am looking at this completely wrong here. But .63 bitcoins a day for a device that costs 1300 bucks seems pretty dangerous. Not to mention the blocks are sliced in half. Does that mean .3 a day from an SC single?!!

Someone who has more knowledge than me chime in here. Am I right with this analysis? I hope not... =/

-Ryan

I suppose the value in the coin could go up a lot. Following other flow charts it seems to follow suit with difficulty increases. Maybe better off just buying the coins, and hoping it follows suit with its past history.
 

[Jutarul]

Is my math rigth here, or am I just completely wrong? Im still very much new to all of this, so it wouldnt suprise me if I am looking at this completely wrong here. But .63 bitcoins a day for a device that costs 1300 bucks seems pretty dangerous. Not to mention the blocks are sliced in half. Does that mean .3 a day from an SC single?!!

What is neglected is the time it takes to fill all the orders. May take 2 years to add 450TH. So if you have the last order, chances are it's not gonna do a ROI.