Greece Cannot Pay, Greece Will Not Pay

[OROBTC]

...

"What cannot be repaid, will not be repaid."
- traditional

Despite the five year drama on Greece and their attempts to stay in the EU and with the euro, it is clear that Greece will NOT repay their external debts.  Despite this latest "deal", the math cannot be ignored: Greece cannot pay their debts, so they will not.  Some kind of default is inevitable.

In general there are three ways extreme debtors use to extinguish debts (other than paying up):

1)  Inflate them away.  This (as well as number three below) is what most governments around the world are doing.  Printing the money.  An increased inflation rate lowers the real value of the debt, borrow money, and repay in devalued money in the future.  This is easy to do.

2)  Default (don't pay).  This happens from time-to-time.  Argentina has defaulted twice in recent years.  Greece has defaulted many times in its +/- 100 year modern history as a nation.  A large scale default tends to be deflationary, there are perils to a population and government in a country that defaults.

3)  Increase the debts!  Debtor countries, including the USA, can often get away with this as long as lenders perceive that they will get their money back (at least recently-loaned money).  This is the easiest of them all in the short-term  But, increasing debts almost always leads to ever increasing problems trying to pay (or later restructure).  Because at some point, no one will loan them any more money...

*   *   *

Of course, any country just getting into trouble would find that total long-term harm is less by biting the bullet and paying their debts quickly.  The problem is that politicians, and their electorates, only want EASY solutions.  Paying debt is never the "easiest" solution.

Greece is in an advanced state of huge debts (their debt: GDP ratio is around 177%).  They cannot pay them off, at least in uninflated terms.

Greece will default.  The mathematics is irrefutable.  The only question is how and when.  Which of the above options they will use.

Beware.  Prepare.  European debts (US debt too) are a big problem, with big consequences,  that will likely spread here.

[yayayo]

Of course, any country just getting into trouble would find that total long-term harm is less by biting the bullet and paying their debts quickly.  The problem is that politicians, and their electorates, only want EASY solutions.  Paying debt is never the "easiest" solution.

Greece is in an advanced state of huge debts (their debt: GDP ratio is around 177%).  They cannot pay them off, at least in uninflated terms.

Greece will default.  The mathematics is irrefutable.  The only question is how and when.  Which of the above options they will use.

Beware.  Prepare.  European debts (US debt too) are a big problem, with big consequences,  that will likely spread here.

I can only agree. Greece is totally insolvent since years, but neither Greece nor the other EU-members want to admit it.

The recent decision to throw even more billions down the drain clearly shows that the EU is mostly ruled by ignorant, incompetent, and irresponsible debt-addicts, that will lead Europe to epic calamity.

ya.ya.yo!

[Possum577]

Yeah, the EU will never see their money back, they just refuse to leave the Greece people out in the cold with an uncertain future. The ironic part is that the people of Greece seem to prefer the unknown, on their own but united together than under the "over bearing" watch of the European Union.

For Greece to turn things around they need to realize that paying taxes is required if people are to expect so much out of their government. And the Government needs to be willing to collect on those taxes, they need to be the bad guy some times.

[Kprawn]

The secret to this answer --> Where is the debt kept and how much does the other countries giving these loans have to lose, if Greece default on the loans?

I have seen some scary statistics on how much of this debt will cripple economies who provided these loans. One of the biggest losers are Germany. So for Greece this has severe consequences, but

the other countries supporting them, will take some huge knocks too.. The short term solution for these countries are to keep the Greece economy going, in the hope that they would get some more

money back, before everything collapse. The problem with that is, the Greeks do not want more loans and more debt. This has NO good ending like a Irish love story.   

[MF Doom]

They can't pay, but they signed over lots of hard assets:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-13/what-assets-did-greece-just-hand-over-europe-airports-airplanes-infrastructure-and-m

One report I heard listed power generation facilities as well.  They will never regain those assets, ever.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

This is all a big circus by both Troika and Tsipras. They know they'll never get their shit together. The debt is unpayable, Merkel doesn't even want to remove the 30% of debt suggested by Tsipras. We will end up on the start line again in no time, and we'll have another referendum, only this time it will be "do you want to leave the eurozone?"

[MF Doom]

This is all a big circus by both Troika and Tsipras. They know they'll never get their shit together. The debt is unpayable, Merkel doesn't even want to remove the 30% of debt suggested by Tsipras. We will end up on the start line again in no time, and we'll have another referendum, only this time it will be "do you want to leave the eurozone?"

People around the world need to ask themselves what is wrong with their leaders.  Are they all:

a) collectively the most incompetent group of people ever

or

b) knowingly working in concert to enrich and empower only the elite mega rich and large corporations

Watching things unfold both in the USA and abroad, I think b) is much more likely.

[yayayo]

This is all a big circus by both Troika and Tsipras. They know they'll never get their shit together. The debt is unpayable, Merkel doesn't even want to remove the 30% of debt suggested by Tsipras. We will end up on the start line again in no time, and we'll have another referendum, only this time it will be "do you want to leave the eurozone?"

People around the world need to ask themselves what is wrong with their leaders.  Are they all:

a) collectively the most incompetent group of people ever

or

b) knowingly working in concert to enrich and empower only the elite mega rich and large corporations

Watching things unfold both in the USA and abroad, I think b) is much more likely.

I'd stay with a). The "elite mega rich" are rich because they understand and use the current monetary system for their advantage. Politicians are not working in concert to empower these people; politicians' main skill is simply to squander money (to get reelected). Most politicians don't have a clue about how the current fiat scheme works. They are easily influenced.

So it's incompetence by the "leaders" and - you should not forget about that - by the majority of the population that votes them into office.

ya.ya.yo!

[MF Doom]

This is all a big circus by both Troika and Tsipras. They know they'll never get their shit together. The debt is unpayable, Merkel doesn't even want to remove the 30% of debt suggested by Tsipras. We will end up on the start line again in no time, and we'll have another referendum, only this time it will be "do you want to leave the eurozone?"

People around the world need to ask themselves what is wrong with their leaders.  Are they all:

a) collectively the most incompetent group of people ever

or

b) knowingly working in concert to enrich and empower only the elite mega rich and large corporations

Watching things unfold both in the USA and abroad, I think b) is much more likely.

I'd stay with a). The "elite mega rich" are rich because they understand and use the current monetary system for their advantage. Politicians are not working in concert to empower these people; politicians' main skill is simply to squander money (to get reelected). Most politicians don't have a clue about how the current fiat scheme works. They are easily influenced.

So it's incompetence by the "leaders" and - you should not forget about that - by the majority of the population that votes them into office.

ya.ya.yo!

The majority vote them into office by way of their lies on the campaign trail.  How many of these "leaders" actually come through with the "promises" they make?  Even 0bumma and his former adviser david axelrod ADMITS he had to "hide" his position on certain issues to maintain his electability.  And people dont care that they are admitted liars!!!

[pigzone]

Greece has seriously tipped over and they failed as a country

[bit1]

It kind of problems dont can be resolve on a couple of years, But certainly pay can be done for them, I remember at least a country that got up even after of the  devastation.

[pigzone]

There going bankrupt and they'll probably sonnet or later start using bitcoin

[qiwoman2]

Greece will inevitably go bankrupt and has sold now all its hard assets so it is getting poorer and poorer, soon we will see Greece as part of Africa, not Europe and unfortunately the Greek people still want to live in the bubble of a good life on borrowed money..I feel sorry for Tsipras because he just has his hands tied either way..Unless the Greeks get outside of the big cities and start growing more veggies, stop borrowing money to buy German cars and sending their kids all to University and private English lessons, rebuilding their country, paying their taxes, we will see a third bailout program failure and an even more poorer Greece..

[Amph]

There going bankrupt and they'll probably sonnet or later start using bitcoin

they have other 3 years of fund from the central european bank, they have their ass covered for now, but they need to plan all the changes to be done to fix all the issue with their country, so taxes, pension ecc...

they will not use bitcoin, no governments will adopt bitcoin, the only people that can do it are the citizens and not a single entity like a government or banks...

[qiwoman2]

There going bankrupt and they'll probably sonnet or later start using bitcoin

they have other 3 years of fund from the central european bank, they have their ass covered for now, but they neew to plan all the changes to be done to fix all the issue with their country, so taxes, pension ecc...

they will not use bitcoin, no governments will adopt bitcoin, the only people that can do it are the citizens and not a single entity like a government or banks...

I do hope they do develop a parallel digital currency of their own as a crowdfunding/revenue source..I know Alexis Tsipras has probably one of the hardest Roles to play in modern Greek History and I whole heatedly hope he pulls it off, but the Greek people have to start helping him out big time, He can't do the job on his own. There needs to be a change in mentality and also the corruption has to be stopped like a knife..I hope the ministry of corruption gets all those big shark tax evaders and collects and freezes their assets..

[HeroCat]

Other EU member countries will pay Greece debt, all EU countries are friends 

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Greece will inevitably go bankrupt and has sold now all its hard assets so it is getting poorer and poorer, soon we will see Greece as part of Africa, not Europe and unfortunately the Greek people still want to live in the bubble of a good life on borrowed money..I feel sorry for Tsipras because he just has his hands tied either way..Unless the Greeks get outside of the big cities and start growing more veggies, stop borrowing money to buy German cars and sending their kids all to University and private English lessons, rebuilding their country, paying their taxes, we will see a third bailout program failure and an even more poorer Greece..

I think Africa is too much, but it will definitely end up as a some sort of Romania type of country. It's not going to get any better for them. Both Tsipras and Troika know the current conditions cannot be ever meet. So it's either Troika giving Tsipra a better deal in the next months or riots on the street because the Greeks cannot handle it anymore.

[bit1]

They need a kind of inspiration of Aristotle,Socrates,Demosthenes,Plato and the great Greek philosophers any of them would tell them to do.

[Falconer]

They need a kind of inspiration of Aristotle,Socrates,Demosthenes,Plato and the great Greek philosophers any of them would tell them to do.

A philosophy can't help them, even they have had Aristotle, Plato, etc in ancients. imo the best and easy way is sold the some islands to neighbor countries, but it will be useless if the corruption is still rampant there. At the time, the government force the greeks to pay high tax and the price of food has risen at the same time.

[Q7]

Reminds me of what happens to the IMF loan they defaulted 2 weeks earlier before they get this fresh loan. Probably a write-off?