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Author Topic: Already delays in BFL shipment plans?  (Read 49494 times)
PuertoLibre
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October 25, 2012, 09:56:08 PM
 #41

@ PsiLan

Thanks for the update.

----> Here is the disturbing part <----

BFL_Josh: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/104-Shipping-in-2-3-weeks?p=1461&viewfull=1#post1461 on 10-09-2012.
Quote
So for an update on shipping times... As you might imagine, we get this question a lot. It seems like it would be a simple question to answer, but it's not. Let me describe the process so people can better understand why.


If you look at the current FPGA board in a Single or MiniRig, you'll see lots of capacitors, resistors, etc... about 350 little tiny parts attached to the board. Contrary to some of the conspiracy theories out there, all our boards are completely custom made, they aren't purchased from another manufacturer, etc... they are designed by us and made for us and us alone. As such, we are required to volume source every single part that goes on the board.


The ASICs are similar in so far as they also have nearly 350 components on each board. With the FPGAs, we sourced parts in the hundreds or low thousands at a time. For some of the ASIC parts, we are sourcing hundreds of thousands at a time which requires direct ordering & lead time dependancy from the respective manufacturers. However, for this first batch, we're mostly able to depend on available distribution stock from places like Mouser and DigiKey. Shortly after we get the first batch of everything in, we'll have our larger mega stockpiles arrive from other vendors and/or direct from the distributors, it's just the first batch that's going to be rough.


So, we've got he myriad distributors shipping thousands of little pieces to us, the PCB manufacturer sending us the bare PCBs, the HSF manufacturer sending the HSFs to us, the PSU manufacturer sending the PSU's to us, the case manufacturer sending the cases to us and most importantly, the fab sending the ASIC chips to us. All of these must arrive on time and as expected for everything to go off without a hitch. So far, so good.

This was announced by BFL_Josh (Inaba) on 10-09-2012

The highlighted parts in blue are what the status was at that time. They were still in the process of receiving raw materials for the first batch. This is the stuff that has to (assuredly) be put into the hands of their outsourced fab house that will assemble the actual units. (only for the first batch of boards)

The update above that PsiLan posted on the current progress with ASIC fabrication was still pending even though they paid for expedited service somewhere in our around 10-09-2012!

(roughly 15 days ago from the date of this post)

Posted by BFL_Josh on 10-25-2012.

Quote from: BFL_Josh;3000
We are not going to be shipping the first week of November, I can definitely say that.  We are waiting on the bulk chips from the foundry, that is really the major delay right now.  As soon as that dam breaks loose, we pretty much have everything else either ready to go or in the pipeline to be completed shortly.

Q: when

Quote from: BFL_Josh;3004
They are not done yet.  We are paying for what's called a "bullet run" though, which is essentially an expedited process to get the chips done sooner.

> From BFL forums
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/104-Shipping-in-2-3-weeks/page8
They haven't received the chips from the foundry yet....meaning one of several possibilities:

1) They haven't yet put the PCB boards together at the fab house they are using. This is assuming that the fab house is in charge of integrating/assembling the entire board and not just the PCB without the ASIC chips. If this is the case, then forget about November.

2) They have assembled the PCB boards at the outsourced fab house despite not having the ASICs on hand, but lack the chips which will be done in house or sent to the outsourced Fab house once again. (Does this imply it will be done in-house with the new equipment they have on hand...can anyone see further delays as they learn how to use the equipment?)

BFL_Josh: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/104-Shipping-in-2-3-weeks?p=1461&viewfull=1#post1461 ib 10-09-2012.
Quote
Ok, so we have the cats herded, the specs staked out, now we have to actually build these things. As many of you know, we've purchased SMT machines to allow us to manufacture our own boards - and I have mentioned this before, but many have not heard it - we will not be using the SMT equipment to process our first batch of boards; we will be using the same house that did the pick and place for our previous generation products, which means we're still at the mercy of someone else for our first batch shipments. There has been some delays at that stage, but we have the padding, so it's not been a critical issue. There has also been some delays at the foundry, but again, we have padding, so it's not been a critical issue. We are also paying for an expedited run at the foundry (which does not come cheap) to keep our timeline up. All these things have to work out perfectly and our timeline is still looking good. However, if something does not work out perfectly, our timeline is going to slip, plain and simple. We've used up most of our padding at this point and we are still ironing out a few little wrinkles here and there. This has been a long explanation for a simple answer: I would like to tell you we are still on time or pretty close to it, because we are. However, I would also like to tell you that we are going to slip a couple weeks or so if anything goes wrong, and given the complexity of the issues facing us, I would say it's almost inevitable something will crop up between now and the beginning of November that we are not expecting; What that is, I don't know yet, but I would rather error on the side of caution, say the timeline is going to slip a little bit and then surprise everyone with an early delivery than promise an early delivery and not meet that promise. So that's what I'm doing and there's your answer. When I have more information, I'll let people know as soon as I can.

So does this mean scenario 1 or scenario 2?

Either way, like he said, weeks of extra delay. That means the shipping won't start anytime soon if they send the ASIC chips to the fab house. It may also mean they haven't yet started assembling the boards in quantity.

It all depends on who is doing what in the pipeline of assembly. It could be that BFL has hired their fab house [only] for basic board assembly and they (BFL) put the chips in themselves. Or the fab house could be doing everything which implies the boards are still just parts in a bin.

Which it is, is anyones guess...
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October 25, 2012, 10:05:25 PM
 #42

1) They haven't yet put the PCB boards together at the fab house they are using. This is assuming that the fab house is in charge of integrating/assembling the entire board and not just the PCB without the ASIC chips. If this is the case, then forget about November.

2) They have assembled the PCB boards at the outsourced fab house despite not having the ASICs on hand, but lack the chips which will be done in house or sent to the outsourced Fab house once again. (Does this imply it will be done in-house with the new equipment they have on hand...can anyone see further delays as they learn how to use the equipment?)


Which it is, is anyones guess...
I would be shocked if it wasn't scenario 1. It would make no sense to completely populate the boards other than the ASICs and then tack on the ASICs as they arrive. The difference to a large board house with all the parts on hand between completely populating the bare boards vs only adding the eight chips is going to be small if it exists at all.
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October 26, 2012, 06:33:42 AM
 #43

1) They haven't yet put the PCB boards together at the fab house they are using. This is assuming that the fab house is in charge of integrating/assembling the entire board and not just the PCB without the ASIC chips. If this is the case, then forget about November.

2) They have assembled the PCB boards at the outsourced fab house despite not having the ASICs on hand, but lack the chips which will be done in house or sent to the outsourced Fab house once again. (Does this imply it will be done in-house with the new equipment they have on hand...can anyone see further delays as they learn how to use the equipment?)


Which it is, is anyones guess...
I would be shocked if it wasn't scenario 1. It would make no sense to completely populate the boards other than the ASICs and then tack on the ASICs as they arrive. The difference to a large board house with all the parts on hand between completely populating the bare boards vs only adding the eight chips is going to be small if it exists at all.

I agree: scenario 1 is the only possible, it's a nonsense weld all the smd components and then add another 8 smd in second time. And with the experience I've had of some other similar project there will be to expect at least 3-4 weeks from the shipment of the chips to the final assembly and testing of the PCB. So at least 5-6 weeks before it will be shipped to customer if they ship directly from the fab or 1-2 weeks more otherwise. So we are at December/January if the chips will be shipped in few days

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October 26, 2012, 07:33:32 AM
 #44

You fellers are bringin' the perty music to my ears. Grin

If BFL is that late and bASIC units ship on schedule, then their owners will have paid off units in weeks.

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October 26, 2012, 07:36:39 AM
 #45

This should come to no surprise to anyone at all who is familiar with BFL's delivery process. The only thing that will be different from the past year of delayed FPGA shipments is the fact that we will be "updated" pretty regularly that we ain't gonna get shit for a little bit "but it shouldn't be much longer". BFL will not be the first to deliver. The End Tongue

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October 26, 2012, 07:38:12 AM
 #46

You fellers are bringin' the perty music to my ears. Grin

If BFL is that late and bASIC units ship on schedule, then their owners will have paid off units in weeks.

I'm am happy about this as I doubled down on bASIC compared to BFL. I have faith in you Tom and "may the force be with you".

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October 26, 2012, 09:48:34 AM
 #47

If the ASICs are in fab run right now, don't expect any BFL ASIC products in 2012. Let's hope that Tom will be able to get working ASIC devices in time. Otherwise the Avalon customers might be the lucky ones.
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October 26, 2012, 12:58:48 PM
 #48

If the ASICs are in fab run right now, don't expect any BFL ASIC products in 2012. Let's hope that Tom will be able to get working ASIC devices in time. Otherwise the Avalon customers might be the lucky ones.


I don't know why you think there would be that much latency once the ASICs are fabbed. Hopefully fab will be finished, do some verification, then they can just plop them onto boards and ship.
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October 26, 2012, 01:13:21 PM
 #49

Guys.  Why are you surprised?  BFL "ship date" for FPGA Single was Oct 2011 the first boards went out in March and really didn't hit volume production until April or May.   It was summer before the shipping delays were less than 2 months. 

That was with off the shelf FPGA.  People pre-ordered with 100% funds paid in advance.  BFL risks nothing by having delays.

WHY would you expect it to be different?    Based on the FPGA launch I would say add six months to the promised date and if they beat that deadline (Oct 2012 = April 2013) then consider it "early".
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October 26, 2012, 01:15:09 PM
 #50

^ That's what I think is going to happen... Or even later....



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PuertoLibre
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October 26, 2012, 01:24:17 PM
 #51

Guys.  Why are you surprised?  BFL "ship date" for FPGA Single was Oct 2011 the first boards went out in March and really didn't hit volume production until April or May.   It was summer before the shipping delays were less than 2 months.  

That was with off the shelf FPGA.  People pre-ordered with 100% funds paid in advance.  BFL risks nothing by having delays.

WHY would you expect it to be different?    Based on the FPGA launch I would say add six months to the promised date and if they beat that deadline (Oct 2012 = April 2013) then consider it "early".
They risk spontaneous combustion of pre-orders and customers when/if they switch to another company that will potentially ship earlier than them.

for their customers it is either sit and wait while everyone else mines, or cancel and re-order somewhere else that is shipping then and now. (Which would cause BFL to implode...so don't do it!)

The only weak spot in Toms business is that he doesn't have enough helpers (hes still hiring IT temp workers) to put his boards into "ready to ship condition". BFL supposedly has plenty of workers...just bad mojo or planning. Whichever may be the case.

Edit: All we need now is for Tom to bump up to 66Gh/s and leave BFL behind.
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October 26, 2012, 01:31:59 PM
 #52

The longer ASICs take to ship, the longer my GPUs run. Win/Win situation.

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October 26, 2012, 01:41:55 PM
 #53

They risk spontaneous combustion of pre-orders and customers when/if they switch to another company that will potentially ship earlier than them.

Weren't most preorders paid by bitcoin or bank wire?  Good luck getting a refund on those.  Especially if you are right and BFL couldn't afford to refund a significant portion of them.
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October 26, 2012, 01:42:36 PM
 #54

Despite the widespread perception that they'd be first to market I chose to order elsewhere because of BFL's history of deceitful shipping date shell games. Also despite assurances that they'd do better this time, it feels like a bunch of song and dance. I can't see myself doing business with them going forward.

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October 26, 2012, 01:42:53 PM
 #55

The longer ASICs take to ship, the longer my GPUs run. Win/Win situation.

Yeah by GPU array is like a cancer patient that knows he is going to die but getting a couple more months can only been seen as a good thing.
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October 26, 2012, 01:43:51 PM
 #56

The longer ASICs take to ship, the longer my GPUs run. Win/Win situation.

Agreed, as much as i would like to get my ASIC, the sooner I get it the sooner my GPUs will be shutdown...

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October 26, 2012, 01:47:43 PM
 #57

They risk spontaneous combustion of pre-orders and customers when/if they switch to another company that will potentially ship earlier than them.

Weren't most preorders paid by bitcoin or bank wire?  Good luck getting a refund on those.  Especially if you are right and BFL couldn't afford to refund a significant portion of them.
<Shrug> There is an old saying that the biggest beast eats the most.

In this case, having 20+ employees, "bullet runs" etc; costs quite a bit of money per week.

Edit: I know I am being over dramatic, but hopefully they are financing the operation with Business credit lines rather than pre-orders. Though all logic says that wouldn't be the case.
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October 26, 2012, 02:13:33 PM
 #58

Before I blow a gasket from reading the FUCKING STUPIDITY ignorance on this thread, let me set something straight:

1) A "fab house" or "fab" does NOT assemble boards.  They make chips.  That's it.  A "lot" or batch of chips takes somewhere between 4 and 10 weeks depending on the "process" (130nm, 65nm, 22nm, etc.) and how much the customer is willing to spend.  According to Josh, they have paid the maximum for their fab to get them out ASAP.  IF they are in 65nm process, I think this should be roughly 6 to 8 weeks - depending on which fab they are using.

2) Chips and other components are soldered onto boards at an "assembly house".

3) After BFL gets the "assembled" boards from the external assembly house (or done in-house in the near future), then they finish putting it together with heatsink and metal box then ship it out.

So go back and read the posts in this thread with the above in mind.

Disclaimer:
I have ordered a BFL SC Single.
I have ordered a 54Gh/s bASIC.
(I bought a ticket for each of the horses to win.  Grin )

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October 26, 2012, 02:21:43 PM
Last edit: October 26, 2012, 02:42:48 PM by PuertoLibre
 #59

Before I blow a gasket from reading the FUCKING STUPIDITY ignorance on this thread, let me set something straight:

1) A "fab house" or "fab" does NOT assemble boards.  They make chips.  That's it.  A "lot" or batch of chips takes somewhere between 4 and 10 weeks depending on the "process" (130nm, 65nm, 22nm, etc.) and how much the customer is willing to spend.  According to Josh, they have paid the maximum for their fab to get them out ASAP.  IF they are in 65nm process, I think this should be roughly 6 to 8 weeks - depending on which fab they are using.

2) Chips and other components are soldered onto boards at an "assembly house".

3) After BFL gets the "assembled" boards from the external assembly house (or done in-house in the near future), then they finish putting it together with heatsink and metal box then ship it out.

So go back and read the posts in this thread with the above in mind.

Disclaimer:
I have ordered a BFL SC Single.
I have ordered a 54Gh/s bASIC.
(I bought a ticket for each of the horses to win.  Grin )
I believe you blew a gasket over a single term. I  worked in construction where the term fabrication means something different than the semiconductor industry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prefabrication

Other than that, no harm intended.
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October 26, 2012, 03:57:06 PM
 #60

Before I blow a gasket from reading the FUCKING STUPIDITY ignorance on this thread, let me set something straight:

1) A "fab house" or "fab" does NOT assemble boards.  They make chips.  That's it.  A "lot" or batch of chips takes somewhere between 4 and 10 weeks depending on the "process" (130nm, 65nm, 22nm, etc.) and how much the customer is willing to spend.  According to Josh, they have paid the maximum for their fab to get them out ASAP.  IF they are in 65nm process, I think this should be roughly 6 to 8 weeks - depending on which fab they are using.

2) Chips and other components are soldered onto boards at an "assembly house".

3) After BFL gets the "assembled" boards from the external assembly house (or done in-house in the near future), then they finish putting it together with heatsink and metal box then ship it out.

I understand that these other components will not be supplied by the assembly house, but will need to be sourced by BFL and shipped to the assembly huose for use.  Does that sound likely to be correct?

Quote from: BFL_Josh
The ASICs are similar in so far as they also have nearly 350 components on each board. With the FPGAs, we sourced parts in the hundreds or low thousands at a time. For some of the ASIC parts, we are sourcing hundreds of thousands at a time which requires direct ordering & lead time dependancy from the respective manufacturers. However, for this first batch, we're mostly able to depend on available distribution stock from places like Mouser and DigiKey.

Source: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/104-Shipping-in-2-3-weeks?p=1461&viewfull=1#post1461

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