Already delays in BFL shipment plans?

[loshia]

There is no plan B right now.

Just personal opinion - the right time for canceling orders if someone wants to is right now. If there is a "cancel wave" for some reason i just do not wanna think how long it will take the refund. Especially those who paid with BTC. Trusting in BTC does not make it a legal currency and actually it may turn out from legal  point of view that nothing is paid at all and there will be no refund - extreme case of course.

For me the right plan is just to stick to our choice (vendor) and wait or quit now.

[michaelmclees]

I think there probably is a wave curve for refunds... but we're past the crest of it now.  We're on the downward slope as the end of November approaches, but will climb back up if BFL wants to delay again.  It makes enormous sense to hold on to your order if they're saying they'll be assembling in 2 weeks, but less sense if they can't meet such a deadline.  It will be interesting in that they claim they haven't used pre-order funds to pay for their current operations.  Should there be an avalanche of cancels, that claim will be put to the test.

[SLok]

Just human psychology. Once invested most people will defend their decision to do so.

Yep........ I did that with a stock purchase recently..... I could have bought 10!!!! ASIC mining rigs with the money wasted.

Question:

Lets say someone is a customer and they feel they want out of the waiting game.

So at what point does a customer make a decision that they are definitively going to get the hardware later than they had [reasonably] hoped??

What is Plan B?

-----------------------------------------------

This goes for all the other companies not just BFL. (Avalon / bASIC)

At what point is it time to call it quits?

A) Is it when one vendor ships and the one you ordered from is still in a holding pattern?

B) Is it when there are more than 2 delays?

C) Is it when the block halving has taken place?

D) Is it when the mass refunds start for any one vendor? (any of the three companies)

---------------------------------

Then what?

What is Plan B?

Do you go to one of the other competitors with your money? Do you just sit there and "suck on lemons" while you wait it out?

What do you do if you do decide to abandon your first choice?

What is the correct strategy at that point?

If another than the one I have my money tight to, starts delivering new orders faster than the one my money is tight to, I'll cancel that order, and go for that other one. What a simple plan B, is it not?

[PuertoLibre]

If another than the one I have my money tight to, starts delivering new orders faster than the one my money is tight to, I'll cancel that order, and go for that other one. What a simple plan B, is it not?

Depends.

I keep thinking that if bASIC delivers in late November or Early December and BFL does not until late December....does it make sense to go to the end of the line @ bASIC?

Sure different people will come up with different ideas as to what is the right answer. I don't see it quite in black and white after thinking on it for a while. The large assumption is that bASIC could get a second batch out fast to make later orders worth while.

That is an unknown at this point. So I can't figure out any easy answers as to what one should do if they are tied to the slowest/slower company.

It is a bit of a pickle when you really think about it.

---------------------------------

Part of me smirks a bit at the idea that BFL does delay into late December/January. It would mean they delayed 2/3 of the ASIC miners from mining. Which is absolutely fantastic if you choose the right vendor to ship first.

Though, if you are stuck in the largest vendor what do you do exactly? It all depends on how fast a second batch occurs at the fastest vendor. Frankly, I don't know of any of their turn around times. Could be weeks for the second batch. Or it could be the fastest vendor over purchased just enough to cover a second batch.

Even my crystal ball has lots of static when trying to figure out this puzzle of "what ifs"...

I don't see any easy or clear answers. People want their rigs, not really their money. So a refund secures their funds, not necessarily their rigs.

[creativex]

I think there probably is a wave curve for refunds... but we're past the crest of it now.  We're on the downward slope as the end of November approaches, but will climb back up if BFL wants to delay again.  It makes enormous sense to hold on to your order if they're saying they'll be assembling in 2 weeks, but less sense if they can't meet such a deadline.  It will be interesting in that they claim they haven't used pre-order funds to pay for their current operations.  Should there be an avalanche of cancels, that claim will be put to the test.

Trouble is, they lie constantly. If/when they fail to meet the currently revised shipping date revision, the next revision will likely be only a couple weeks later, and they may or may not meet that one. Additionally if you're at the middle or end of their pre-order list you may not see your ASIC until much later even if they do ship some ASIC products in December.

[Starlightbreaker]

I think there probably is a wave curve for refunds... but we're past the crest of it now.  We're on the downward slope as the end of November approaches, but will climb back up if BFL wants to delay again.  It makes enormous sense to hold on to your order if they're saying they'll be assembling in 2 weeks, but less sense if they can't meet such a deadline.  It will be interesting in that they claim they haven't used pre-order funds to pay for their current operations.  Should there be an avalanche of cancels, that claim will be put to the test.

Trouble is, they lie constantly. If/when they fail to meet the currently revised shipping date revision, the next revision will likely be only a couple weeks later, and they may or may not meet that one. Additionally if you're at the middle or end of their pre-order list you may not see your ASIC until much later even if they do ship some ASIC products in December.

it'll be funny though if they start shipping the middle part of pre-order in late december or early january.
and for the people on the end of the list...less likely to get their ROI in a year or so.


that's why you go with the one that has track record of under-promise and over-deliver.

be realistic now, it's almost the end of november, and no one has released anything, not even working prototypes. no exact numbers on anything.

[creativex]

I don't think it's funny at all. I think it sucks that such an unreliable company has captured such a large market share with dishonest projections.

If your projections come to pass AND BTCFPGA remains on schedule, it's possible early second batch bASIC purchasers could receive products before some first batch BFL customers do. Now that'd be brutal.

I'm not too worried about the lack of published specifics. Tom's model for bASICs has been to outsource nearly everything so he won't have a production product for accurate specs until very close to shipping time.

[MrTeal]

I don't think it's funny at all. I think it sucks that such an unreliable company has captured such a large market share with dishonest projections.

If your projections come to pass AND BTCFPGA remains on schedule, it's possible early second batch bASIC purchasers could receive products before some first batch BFL customers do. Now that'd be brutal.

I'm not too worried about the lack of published specifics. Tom's model for bASICs has been to outsource nearly everything so he won't have a production product for accurate specs until very close to shipping time.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little slippage in the bASIC schedule though. It's getting very close to shipping time, and there seems to be a lot left to do. I'm not sure who will be first out the gate, but both parties could be mid December by the time all is said and done.

[Meatball]

Ah, I'm not too worried about who ships first, and who doesn't.  Honestly, let's say one company ships tomorrow and noone else does for a month, at _best_ these people are going to get a week or so before their ASIC's jack the the difficulty up to the point that the cycle is going to be back to 2 weeks per difficulty adjust.  Will it be nice payoff for those folks?  Sure, but everyone should have assumed in their RoI calculations that they very likely could have not been in the first round.  If you've cut your return on investment calculations so close that you can't stand to get an ASIC a month or two later than other folks, then you're crazy.

The key thing is in the long term, it's going to be power/performance that wins the day.  Yeah, some folks might get a leg up for a month or two, but a year or two down the road it's going to be whoever is the most power efficient that's still mining, not who got their ASIC's a month early.

Regardless of what happens, I think we're in for a wild ride over the next 2-3 months...hold onto your hats folks.

[PuertoLibre]

"Plan B" has just manifested:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/251-More-Jalapeno-Pictures-amp-Shipping-Update?p=5382&viewfull=1#post5382

It seems that there may be a Surplus of units for bASIC Batch 1 orders. Meaning about 300 non-customers may be able to take those "Plan B" spots.

You know the saying....strike while the Iron is Hot.

[SLok]

"Plan B" has just manifested:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/251-More-Jalapeno-Pictures-amp-Shipping-Update?p=5382&viewfull=1#post5382

It seems that there may be a Surplus of units for bASIC Batch 1 orders. Meaning about 300 non-customers may be able to take those "Plan B" spots.

You know the saying....strike while the Iron is Hot.

Do they even know what is ordered/paid for at this stage? No.
Guaranteed a place in batch one if ordered now? No.
Is the planning -first week of December- now -early December-? Yes.
Does this all mean anything? No.
Can they deliver off the shelf? No.
Hardly a plan B is it?

[poon-TANG]

I'm kinda thinking Jan ship dates for all ASIC devices

[punin]

I heard BFL is expecting to get their ASIC chips by "well before the end of December."

[creativex]

AWESOME news given that throughout most of the year they were promoting an October shipping date.

[hardcore-fs]

I heard BFL is expecting to get their ASIC chips by "well before the end of December."

"... that Bitcoin Talk community would nominate and accept as credible, verifiable individuals to be flown here to KC sometime around the end of October/Beginning of November time frame to see our facility, inspect the manufacturing equipment and test out the devices."

[LiteBit]

This is making me lose all my remaining hair...  Ahh!

[Starlightbreaker]

I heard BFL is expecting to get their ASIC chips by "well before the end of December."

"... that Bitcoin Talk community would nominate and accept as credible, verifiable individuals to be flown here to KC sometime around the end of October/Beginning of November time frame to see our facility, inspect the manufacturing equipment and test out the devices."

kano & yochdog haven't been flown in to their facility.

so are we looking at february shipping then?
lol

[fcmatt]

Did anyone really seriously expect BFL, the masters of delayed shipping times based on their FPGA products, to make it before 2013?
I still think they will be first out for the first hundred orders but i would still not count on Jan 2013. Think Feb based on the last
performance they had for more then 100 orders.

[bobitza]

Did anyone really seriously expect BFL, the masters of delayed shipping times based on their FPGA products, to make it before 2012?
I still think they will be first out for the first hundred orders but i would still not count on Jan 2012. Think Feb based on the last
performance they had for more then 100 orders.

You mean 2013, right?

[fcmatt]

Did anyone really seriously expect BFL, the masters of delayed shipping times based on their FPGA products, to make it before 2012?
I still think they will be first out for the first hundred orders but i would still not count on Jan 2012. Think Feb based on the last
performance they had for more then 100 orders.

You mean 2013, right?

yes. typo. 2013. i will correct my initial post. thanks.