Already delays in BFL shipment plans?

[creativex]

All will not go well, it never does with BFL pre-orders. Apparently the re-spin rumors were accurate.

I knew he was crabby about something. This just sounds like more fuzzy deadlines and hopeful shipping dates.  

I have been waiting to have more solid information but it's still not available to me at this moment and I'm going to bed soon, so I wanted to put out an update before I hit the sack.

While I can't give a hard date and say "absolutely" this is the date, it looks like the week of the 11th, but that's the "fuzzy" date I have at the moment and I'm waiting on confirmation on a not-fuzzy date from the foundry right now. There was a flaw in the chip that needed to be addressed and it pushed the date out, plain and simple. We are as frustrated with this process as everyone else is and we apologize for the delays. Contrary to some of the trolls over on Bitcoin Talk, we fully intended to start shipping at the end of October, but with a project as complex as this, even our built in padding has proved to be a bit inadequate to deal with all the moving parts, and we will have slipped by ~6 weeks after all is said and done.

The good news is that our shipment of chips will be substantial and we are re-addressing the quantities and compacting the shipment dates. We will have just shy of 100,000 chips available and in our hands before the end of the year, coming in two waves. The first wave will hopefully be the week of the 11th (probably more towards the end I'm guessing) and the second wave will be just before the end of the year. This is enough chips to cover all pre-orders and a lot more besides. This extra time also allows us to make some refinements we wanted to make to a few components, but more importantly, we may have just enough time to get a custom metal or silicon QFN package ready for the rev1 shipments (should know this week), and if that's the case, it will make rev1 boards ridiculously efficient at heat elimination. Originally this was going to be for Rev2 if we didn't go with a flip-chip design (but this would require a lot more work than our custom packaging) - but the extra time we are forced to endure is going to be put to good use.

Once again, we apologize for the delays. We hate them as much as everyone else (probably more), but as the competitors are experiencing as well, sometimes you are at the mercy of other people's schedules and problems. As we said months ago, we are trying to eliminate as many of those points of failure as possible by bringing everything we can in house. Of course, we can't bring a fab in house, so we are at their mercy at the moment. Once we get the chips in our hands, we will have a sufficient enough quantity to see us through until the next order and it should allow us to get up and running in house or at least make good headway into that arena.

[bcpokey]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=785

I think we can safely say that no ASIC manufacturer will have devices out by then.
This one is the more interesting one, end of 2012.
betsofbitco.in/item?id=446
If you're really pessimistic, you could bet on them not shipping before April.
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701

I'm impressed at the No Shipping before end of 2012 bet, was created in June? And still even money both ways!

Strange that you can still bet on not shipping before Dec 1st though, as it is now basically a slamdunk bet.

[thoughtfan]

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

I'm feeling it now for those who ordered early.  With BFL's much bigger initial chip order the difference in delivery time between the first to order and the last is not going to be very long if they send them out soon-as-built meaning the big-returns widnow is likely to be short-lived as the ASIC hashing power goes through the roof.  Profitability is not essential for me because it's as much novelty/supporting the project than anything else but to the extent that I am counting profitability it is versus returns in pounds had I simply bought Bitcoin instead.  BTCGBP was about £6.80 when I made my BFL order (being now around £7.80) but those who put their money in when BTC was much cheaper have not only lost out on the raise in Bitcoin value but will also have little reward over latecomers in terms of getting an early advantage with mining.  I really hope it works out for everyone but it's looking less likely by the day.

[Frizz23]

Contrary to some of the trolls over on Bitcoin Talk, we fully intended to start shipping at the end of October, but with a project as complex as this, ...

Come on dude, all your ASICS do is SHA-256. That's not rocket science.

According to your definition of "complex" we'd still be using Intel-8080 8-bit microprocessors - because everything else is just toooooo complex.

There was a flaw in the chip that needed to be addressed and it pushed the date out, plain and simple.

And maybe there's a flaw in the next revision of your chip. And in the next. And in the next.
As long as you don't have a working prototype you know shit.

Many people have asked this question ("do you have a working prototype?"). Either they got banned from BFL forums, or you mocked, trolled or lied to them. Very professional Mr. BFL Spokesperson, very professional. Not.

Only a few days ago you have been asked by bitcoindaddy: "Is there any chance that when the 20,000 ASIC's arrive, that they don't work as expected? Has the foundry sent you test chips or run a wafer's worth of chips for you already to test with?".

Your reply was: "There is always a chance of that. With this revision, we don't have a test sample chip right now. The likelyhood of it not working at this point is pretty slim though.".

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/406-any-chance-chips-wont-work.html

At that time you knew for sure that the chips where borked.

[bcpokey]

Haha, guess I wasn't the only one, http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=785 is now ~1100 qgree, 100 disagree. Wonder what portion of the payout the johnny comelatelys can get. Can you drop enough BTC on this sure thing to make it worthwhile against early weighted bets? Hmm.


On another note, not sure why everyone is so terrified upon hearing the big scary 100,000 number of ASICs. Did no one previously think that BFL would get more chips in, to fill any further orders? They've always said that they plan to be able to make ASICs until the peeps stop ordering em, and want no delay such as having to wait for another batch of chips to come in. They were going to hit 750TH eventually and more.

Or is this a worry that potentially they will have 750TH in-hand, and if orders dry up sooner than expected, that TH might be used without customers to recoup expenses? That is a valid worry in my mind for sure.

[TheBible]

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums.  It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay.  A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Called it.

Thanks for finally giving us the reason behind the delay Josh.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

You guys do this exact same dance with every single scammer, and you never see it coming somehow.

Here's a hint, they all give you these bullshit excuses.  Over and over again, and you all throw your money at them and thank them, then act completely stunned when they bolt with it.

Here's a test of BFL's legitimacy.  That ASIC you're blowing money on, have you even seen a prototype?  Any evidence that it would even work if it did ship?  Any evidence that the design behind it is sound?  Anything at all?

[bitcoindaddy]

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums.  It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay.  A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Well, normally I would say, relax and keep mining with your GPU's, but with the reward-halving, I'll probably shut off my miners unless the price of BTC goes up. I have to play with the calculator and see if I'm still making money on any of them.

[greyhawk]

I really hope BFL is not that shoddy when "run time" comes on January 1st.

Imagine them standing around at the airport, bags bulging with bitcoins, ready to jump on the plane to Jamaica, when suddenly Chris V. asks: "So, who's got the tickets?" and Inaba goes: "Well, they SAID we should have got them per mail 2 weeks ago. Didn't you get them?"

[LiteBit]

Seems "Fuzzy" at best

[Zeek_W]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

[PuertoLibre]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

Well, at least you stood your ground and gave them every opportunity to come through....

Looks like the first (safe) wave of refunds have begun or are ongoing.

The second wave of refunds is where the risk is at (IMO).

[abeaulieu]

Come on dude, all your ASICS do is SHA-256. That's not rocket science.

According to your definition of "complex" we'd still be using Intel-8080 8-bit microprocessors - because everything else is just toooooo complex.

Frizz, please do make your own ASIC to squash these over-complicating buffoons. I can hardly stand these people that make it sound like manufacturing a custom integrated circuit to calculate billions of crypto-hashes a second with embedded logic on the nano-scale is the slightest bit complex!

[greyhawk]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

Well, at least you stood your ground and gave them every opportunity to come through....

Looks like the first (safe) wave of refunds have begun or are ongoing.

The second wave of refunds is where the risk is at (IMO).

Seems the risk is already here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/441-refund-not-getting-processed.html

[TheBible]

Come on dude, all your ASICS do is SHA-256. That's not rocket science.

According to your definition of "complex" we'd still be using Intel-8080 8-bit microprocessors - because everything else is just toooooo complex.

Frizz, please do make your own ASIC to squash these over-complicating buffoons. I can hardly stand these people that make it sound like manufacturing a custom integrated circuit to calculate billions of crypto-hashes a second with embedded logic on the nano-scale is the slightest bit complex!

Plenty of companies manage to do it on a global scale every day.  Before they even sell anything, they also do things like produce working prototypes to make sure what they are selling is actually going to work.

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

Well, at least you stood your ground and gave them every opportunity to come through....

Looks like the first (safe) wave of refunds have begun or are ongoing.

The second wave of refunds is where the risk is at (IMO).

Seems the risk is already here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/441-refund-not-getting-processed.html

Oh, wow, bitcoin based business failing to deliver and not refunding customers?  Huge shock.  If only there were a well-established pattern of this happening time and time again, then people could learn to stop trusting anyone from this community.

[squeept]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

How many orders did you have? By my count, you've cancelled one every other week for the last 2 months.

[greyhawk]

Oh, wow, bitcoin based business failing to deliver and not refunding customers?  Huge shock.  If only there were a well-established pattern of this happening time and time again, then people could learn to stop trusting anyone from this community.

The people in this community are too intelligent to have a need to learn something.

[crazyates]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

How many orders did you have? By my count, you've cancelled one every other week for the last 2 months.

LOL

[bitmar]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

Well, at least you stood your ground and gave them every opportunity to come through....

Looks like the first (safe) wave of refunds have begun or are ongoing.

The second wave of refunds is where the risk is at (IMO).

Seems the risk is already here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/441-refund-not-getting-processed.html

Maybe they do not have money to refund. Each bug in the ASIC design is extremely expensive and increases the cost of the entire project. The question is whether  have they enough money to eliminate bugs and produce working chips?. Time is working against BFL, more and more people will want a refund. Any delay, any setback = less new customers = less supply of money. It threatens bankruptcy. BFL is approaching a critical time.

[SgtSpike]

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums.  It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay.  A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Called it.

Thanks for finally giving us the reason behind the delay Josh.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

You guys do this exact same dance with every single scammer, and you never see it coming somehow.

Here's a hint, they all give you these bullshit excuses.  Over and over again, and you all throw your money at them and thank them, then act completely stunned when they bolt with it.

Here's a test of BFL's legitimacy.  That ASIC you're blowing money on, have you even seen a prototype?  Any evidence that it would even work if it did ship?  Any evidence that the design behind it is sound?  Anything at all?

It is very obvious they are actually working on the project.  They aren't outright scammers.  They gave optimistic estimates for when they could ship, with the stipulation that that ship date may be pushed back in the event that something goes wrong.  Something went wrong.  It isn't any more complicated than that.

If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago.  They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

I'm feeling it now for those who ordered early.  With BFL's much bigger initial chip order the difference in delivery time between the first to order and the last is not going to be very long if they send them out soon-as-built meaning the big-returns widnow is likely to be short-lived as the ASIC hashing power goes through the roof.  Profitability is not essential for me because it's as much novelty/supporting the project than anything else but to the extent that I am counting profitability it is versus returns in pounds had I simply bought Bitcoin instead.  BTCGBP was about £6.80 when I made my BFL order (being now around £7.80) but those who put their money in when BTC was much cheaper have not only lost out on the raise in Bitcoin value but will also have little reward over latecomers in terms of getting an early advantage with mining.  I really hope it works out for everyone but it's looking less likely by the day.

I'm fine with it.  Being one of the first to jump on ASICs will still be VERY profitable.  And I can't look back in hindsight at what I would have made if I had invested directly in coins either - that wasn't a sure thing.  They could have been worth exactly the same as they were when I ordered, or even less.

[makomk]

What reputable business would not be able to give you an estimate of when they'll have the chips, that's just absurd. Are you guys using a 3rd world sweat shop or something to pump these things out?

Answer: a small boutique fab. You know, like the one Inaba boasted BFL was using because small boutique fabs supposedly offered a much better, more personal service than the mass-produced crap from companies like TSMC.

Come on dude, all your ASICS do is SHA-256. That's not rocket science.

It's very easy to make it complex, though - for instance, by insisting on doing a full custom design even though that increases the costs and risks substantially without necessarily improving speed or power efficiency.