POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming?

[Spendulus]

Yes or no?  I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option.

We're now going on 21 years.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/

"Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years."

[criptix]

U should read this:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm

The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad.
they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data.

One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page:

Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies."

*edit

Someone should twitter the guy my post

[Spendulus]

U should read this:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm

The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad.
they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data.

One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page:

Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies."

*edit

Someone should twitter the guy my post

I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling.  Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site.  It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets.  The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.

Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level.

Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc.  But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged.

[criptix]

U should read this:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm

The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad.
they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data.

One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page:

Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies."

*edit

Someone should twitter the guy my post

I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling.  Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site.  It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets.  The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.

Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level.

Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc.  But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged.

Im not sure but if look at this graphic with the updated parameters:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png
There is an increase till 2010 ( it only goes so far)

[Beliathon]

Yes or no?  I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-pseudoscience/

[Lauda]

Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor.  This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible.
The weather is becoming more extreme.

[Sourgummies]

Could be humans are meant to destroy planets and are brought in to achieve this goal. Why get in the way of a natural course of destruction.


If we do turn this planet into a soup,earth will fix it once it wipes us clean off it.

[Spendulus]

Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor.  This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible.
The weather is becoming more extreme.

I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. 

But it's always like that in summer in Texas.  (LOL...)

So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased?  Sounds that way.   I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally.  Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess.

[Spendulus]

U should read this:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm

The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad.
they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data.

One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page:

Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies."

*edit

Someone should twitter the guy my post

I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling.  Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site.  It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets.  The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.

Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level.

Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc.  But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged.

Im not sure but if look at this graphic with the updated parameters:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png
There is an increase till 2010 ( it only goes so far)

Thanks for posting that.  The line slope is heavily influenced by the starting point.

Again, I'm going to be careful what and how I say things because I really don't care to influence the results.  Wikipedia has a what looks like a decent discussion on this.  The phrase "hiatus" is prejudicial.  We have a "hiatus" when it stops warming.  

But do we have a "hiatus" when it stops cooling?  Nope.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus

[popcorn1]

Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor.  This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible.
The weather is becoming more extreme.

I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here.  

But it's always like that in summer in Texas.  (LOL...)

So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased?  Sounds that way.   I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally.  Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess.

come and live in the uk   rain rain rain bit ov sun wind wind rain rain bit ov sun sleet snow bit ov sun

i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure..
if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved

[Sourgummies]

I leave this thread and right to infowars and bam!

http://www.infowars.com/we-are-in-21st-year-of-declining-temperatures/

[Spendulus]

Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor.  This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible.
The weather is becoming more extreme.

I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here.  

But it's always like that in summer in Texas.  (LOL...)

So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased?  Sounds that way.   I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally.  Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess.

come and live in the uk   rain rain rain bit ov sun wind wind rain rain bit ov sun sleet snow bit ov sun

i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure..
if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved

Yeah but some of that plastic...


I mean what about plastic surgeons, dude?

[RoadTrain]

Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years.

PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course.

[ummina]

i believe it. just now we can to feel the temperature very high.
ozon begin in hollow..
ice in north pole has melt. we can feel with the sea sustain upgrade. i think have many human know it.
the climate not balanced again like before.
if hot, its very hoty, and if cold, its very cloudly right..
very very not stablelity. and sun shine very hot. i can very very feel this. earth have change in tis condition. 

[popcorn1]

Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor.  This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible.
The weather is becoming more extreme.

I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here.  

But it's always like that in summer in Texas.  (LOL...)

So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased?  Sounds that way.   I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally.  Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess.

come and live in the uk   rain rain rain bit ov sun wind wind rain rain bit ov sun sleet snow bit ov sun

i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure..
if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved

Yeah but some of that plastic...


I mean what about plastic surgeons, dude?

ok you got me there 

[darkangel11]

Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years.

PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course.

I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder.

[RoadTrain]

Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years.

PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course.

I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder.

Yep, pretty the same picture as mine. Don't know how far we are geographically, but I live near Estonia, so pretty much in Europe too

[Spendulus]

Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years.

PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course.

I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder.

Yep, pretty the same picture as mine. Don't know how far we are geographically, but I live near Estonia, so pretty much in Europe too

I wonder whether this might be a decadal cycle, such as the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).  I'm not personally familiar with weather in Europe, let alone it's long term trends.  In other words, is it a planetary effect, or a regional one?  Certainly in areas known to be subject to such periodic changes, not mentioning such a thing when a government or scientific body or political organization discusses causes of "climate change" would be lying by omission.  Is this happening?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation#Climate_impacts_worldwide

The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.[4]

Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO, more rainfall.[8]

Climate models suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over India and Sahel and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.[9] Paleoclimatologic studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.[10]

[jaysabi]

Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context.

Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM
When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says

Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes.

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models
For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere.

So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence.

So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings?

Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming.

[Possum577]

Yes or no?  I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option.

We're now going on 21 years.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/

"Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years."

Give us a reputable source and we may believe you. The Daily Caller is political propaganda.