Where is Bitcoin in the Technology adoption lifecycle?

[Adrian-x]

The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes  to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin.

Looking at the injustice that is a result of our current money and economic system, it seems inevitable that a system like Bitcoin is an absolute necessity, and it is propagating according to the Law of Diffusion of Innovations.

My concern for Bitcoin to benefit the masses, (let's say 1/5th of the planet) 1,400,000,000 people; we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point. (That is about 210,000,000 enthusiasts to use and benefit from Bitcoin before it gets mass market appeal) that = BTC0.1 per person on average.

As the current distribution of Bitcoin stands at the moment Early Adopters were the ones who got in before the 2011 bubble and the new comers are looking like the Early to Late majority.   

The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed?  That kind of limits new comers to Bitcoin to the Late Majority and Laggard status and limiting the total adoption to around 60,000 enthusiasts.

How do I sell the benefits of a fixed currency like Bitcoin when the wealth created by the labour of over a  100,000 people transfers to a single early adopter with a balance of a few thousand coins? 

Simon Sinek has a great TED talk on TED.com on "Why" , people adopt new technologies.

If you haven't read Crossing the Chasm by  Geoffrey Moore it is a good read.

[Stephen Gornick]

The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes  to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin.

Related:

Bitcoin and Hype Cycle
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53068.0

The Startup Curve
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0

we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point.

15% of the global population is not needed to reach "the tipping point".

The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed?

The "easy money" wasn't so easy at the time.  Mining is not guaranteed -- and there really isn't that much seignorage.  A miner today pays seventy cents (in electricity and amortized hardware costs) to earn a dollar's worth of bitcoins (not including the time to administer the operation).

Also, there are no guarantees.  A lot of people who bought at $16, $22, or $33 probably would disagree with you about their stash being easy money.

Now the big difference between those who have bitcoin wealth today and those who have banking system wealth is that the banking system continues to suck the blood from the system thanks to the corporatacracy that exists.    Since there is no competition by the free market, the parasitic system continues to feed off us.

With bitcoin, those who held bitcoin assets just have assets.   Once those assets are spent they must be earned.   And because so far there is relatively little regulatory intervention, there is no advantage given to incumbents.   So the fat don't get fatter.

So if the "it's not fair" argument is what you are struggling with, there's no better chance at arriving at a system free from unfair advantages than what Bitcoin offers.

[Adrian-x]

The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes  to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin.

Related:

Bitcoin and Hype Cycle
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53068.0

The Startup Curve
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0

thanks

we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point.

15% of the global population is not needed to reach "the tipping point".

Doesn't that depend on how big this is going to go? To me the higher the adoption cost the more likely we are to be approaching or crossing the tipping point. 

The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed?

The "easy money" wasn't so easy at the time.  Mining is not guaranteed -- and there really isn't that much seignorage.  A miner today pays seventy cents (in electricity and amortized hardware costs) to earn a dollar's worth of bitcoins (not including the time to administer the operation).

Also, there are no guarantees.  A lot of people who bought at $16, $22, or $33 probably would disagree with you about their stash being easy money.

Now the big difference between those who have bitcoin wealth today and those who have banking system wealth is that the banking system continues to suck the blood from the system thanks to the corporatacracy that exists.    Since there is no competition by the free market, the parasitic system continues to feed off us.

With bitcoin, those who held bitcoin assets just have assets.   Once those assets are spent they must be earned.   And because so far there is relatively little regulatory intervention, there is no advantage given to incumbents.   So the fat don't get fatter.

(but the economy doesn't seem to be fattening up either) I agree with everything you have said, my mining investment has been paid off, my Bitcoin reserves are as full as I would like them, I am just feeling a little frustrated with the way things are in the fiat world, and would like to hurry this Bitcoin meme along - I want to buy something without cashing out to Fiat, but I can't see that happening.

So if the "it's not fair" argument is what you are struggling with, there's no better chance at arriving at a system free from unfair advantages than what Bitcoin offers.

I see my own behaviour regarding value seems to be typical in the Bitcoin community, and it seems to me to be the most likely and the single biggest point of failure. Yes there could be a way to appeal to a wider market and that would mean giving up a little, making a new tweak.

[pretendo]

Beware reifying models, particular simplistic pop-sci ones

[dissipate]

I'm not sure where Bitcoin is in the lifecycle, but I will say that it isn't anywhere near mass market appeal. That's fine though, because there a multi-billion dollar niche markets like gambling and international remittances.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Saying 1.5 billion users are necessary to reach a "tipping" point is just silly.  PayPal has 100 million users.  If Bitcoin had more users than PayPal it likely erase the very need for PayPal and virtually every other person to person payment platform on the planet.

PayPal has a large enough network effect that if it weren't for the downsides (centralized control, seziure of funds, inability for everyone to get an account due to AML/KYC requirements, etc) the number of accounts would likely BE in the billions.

Where is the tipping point?  Hell I don't know for sure but I would say on the magnitude of tens of millions not billions of active users.

[TraderTimm]

I have a friend of mine that isn't particularly technical. This person tends to acquire a gadget or adopt something way after the majority has. I'll know precisely where we are when I hear this person ask me about this 'bitcoin' thing. I think we all know people like this, and it is really the only way to verify true penetration into the middle of the curve.

Of course, I've never discussed bitcoin with this person because it would be a long conversation for them to 'get' it. When they are finally curious, that is the moment we've "arrived".

[jjshabadoo]

I agree with Timm here. The same can be said for alternative medicine. On the west coast people didn't know what acupuncture was in 1997. By about 2003 people were starting to seek treatment. Now it is old hat, but consumption is still growing rapidly.

[YokoToriyama]

now that we have asic its has evolved

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

Email is a good example as well. Hell when I first heard about email I thought I would never really have to use it. Now I couldn't imagine what my life would be without it. We aren't even at the stage where everyone is hearing about it and asking about it yet. To be honest I have only mentioned it to a few close relatives and friends and it seems like nobody ever takes it serious like I do so I just don't even talk about to anyone unless it's on this forum. I feel like it is inevitable that it will become popular is some form or fashion and I'm just going to be ready when it happens. Like a few of you already stated, when people who shouldn't know shit about bitcoin start mentioning it in conversation...look out here she comes!

[QuantumKiwi]

I think as people get into the movement that no bank controls bitcoin, whatever happens - will happen.

e.g If bitcoin becomes to popular that the mining difficulty increases, then the developers of bitcoin will im sure - modify to acomodate.

[Roger_Murdock]

I wonder what percentage of Americans have even heard of Bitcoin. I mean, if you polled 100 people at random and asked them "what is Bitcoin?" -how many of those people would at least know enough to identify it as "some kind of Internet currency"? And the real question, what percentage actually understand it, i.e. recognize that no, it's not the equivalent of WoW gold - that it changes everything?  Based on my conversations with friends and family, I'd put those numbers at 2 and 0.2, respectively, but I'm probably being too generous. 

[Akka]

Bitcoin is currently still in a very early stage.

I only found out of it by accident and haven't heard from it since, unless actively searching for it.

Also, not a single person I mentioned it to has ever heard from it.

As I see it very interesting time are before us as it seems like bitcoin has reached its market cap of geeks and people exited about new concepts. I would count people who are joining now as the first of the early adopters.

We are probably just existing the Innovation stage and entering the early adopters stage. Time will get exciting as ether bitcoin will climb the step to the next level or will remain at it's current level and slowly loose importance.

All my personal opinion of course. And at least I hope that this is the stage we are currently at, because with the current scamming everywhere, if we would already be in a adoption stage, I would see black for the future of BTC.

[bitcorn]

It seems that usually people who follow tech or finance closely seem to know about it, if at all. And even then not always so much.

Since it's usually the scam du jour they're hearing about, little of this perception is positive.

[Melbustus]

It seems that usually people who follow tech or finance closely seem to know about it, if at all. And even then not always so much.

Yeah, of the 20 or so people I've mentioned it to, two had heard about it before. One of whom was a high-level guy at a major Wall St. firm in the 80s/90s, and the other guy is a tech-entrepreneur. Their level of knowledge about it was medium, I guess. They both understood the idea; that it's not just another internet currency, but neither had really thought about it or researched it much.

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

I guess we better acquire and hang on to as much as we can before it becomes popular. If it does not succeed...we just lose some money we were gonna lose already apparently.

[LegalEagle]

I have a friend of mine that isn't particularly technical. This person tends to acquire a gadget or adopt something way after the majority has. I'll know precisely where we are when I hear this person ask me about this 'bitcoin' thing. I think we all know people like this, and it is really the only way to verify true penetration into the middle of the curve.

Of course, I've never discussed bitcoin with this person because it would be a long conversation for them to 'get' it. When they are finally curious, that is the moment we've "arrived".

Keep us updated on this.   

[meebs]

Deff early adopter stage. Until cards are available to easily spend the currency and it is FAR easier to buy/trade it will remain a very niche product.

[DoomDumas]

Wow, very interesting...

the e-book tag as To-Read    after "The First Civilization" - A free book about a Resource Based Economy. Submitted by Jas Garcha = A must read !

[Adrian-x]

Time for an update.
In consideration of my opening post I would like your perspective in the light of the thoughts below:
Half the coins ever to be mind are now out there, that leaves just less than 50% of all coins to be distributed among the entire Bitcoin economy. (I think it is right to think of Bitcoin as an economy rather than a network, it is a decentralised economy - as Amazon has the best real estate in the new Digital world, so too is Bitcoin staking out new real estate in this borderless digital world)

Where in the life cycle is Bitcoin if Half the coins are out there , and all newcomers have to pay the equivalent of a later comer tax, or the early adopters charge an early adopters premium (think supply and demand the have's charge whatever the have not's are willing to pay)

How much more can this grow?