Where is Bitcoin in the Technology adoption lifecycle?

[Adrian-x]

now that we have asic its has evolved

Judging by your BFL signature i would guess you do not have an asic yet

Judging the relevance of your statement, it looks like you are pedaling snake oil.  This discussion should continue under speculation. 

Any one in there right mined who would invest in developing dedicated Bitcoin ASIC's, would be expected to profit from mining Bitcoin's before they shipped hardware, to competitors. 

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[Adrian-x]

@ Spaceman_Spiff
I agree with your reasoning, I seem to value the merits differently, It is going to be fun watching Bitcoin evolve.

[Adrian-x]

So how is it that:

Total Voters: 100
And
Innovation stage 30 (26.1%)
Early adopters stage pre chiasm 46 (40%)
Early adopter stage post chiasm 30 (26.1%)
Early Majority 5 (4.3%) Late Majority 3 (2.6%)
Laggards. 1 (0.9%)[/quote -]

[psybits]

I would say the innovation stage for sure - bitcoin is in its infancy and has a very, very, very long way to go. The fact it is planned out until 2140 is far more foresighted than any currency issued by a government!

In terms of the humanistic benefits of cryptocurrency (which I believe in) do not forget LTC and TRC which will also grow and most likely spread to more people

[Adrian-x]

bump

Please vote/ update your vote - comment.
I am wanting to share the users market sentiment, also - please read the OP as there is a lot about Bitcoin there what I think is bullish.

Statistically 15% of total users are classified as Early Adopters, my question is do you see the noobs as laggards or early adopters in a bigger picture?

[mickeyshrugged]

Bitcoin isn't like a new product or technology, but a way of doing things. It's more like a culture. AFAIK there is no such thing as a "culture adoption curve." Right now it's very counter-cultural and some are calling it a fad. In some circles it's very fashionable and in vogue and in others it looks silly, mawkish, even outdated.

Of course it transcends culture in some ways, but not many. It will only reach people who value what this way of doing things has to offer.

[Adrian-x]

Bitcoin isn't like a new product or technology, but a way of doing things. It's more like a culture. AFAIK there is no such thing as a "culture adoption curve." Right now it's very counter-cultural and some are calling it a fad. In some circles it's very fashionable and in vogue and in others it looks silly, mawkish, even outdated.

Of course it transcends culture in some ways, but not many. It will only reach people who value what this way of doing things has to offer.

I think of it as a technology, not a culture. Just like farming, or using money are technologies that had huge cultural effects, in my view it was the technology that culture.
I agree there is a little culture in this early phase - I see Bitcoin being called nerds gold.

[Luckybit]

The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes  to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin.

Related:

Bitcoin and Hype Cycle
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53068.0

The Startup Curve
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0

we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point.

15% of the global population is not needed to reach "the tipping point".

The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed?

The "easy money" wasn't so easy at the time.  Mining is not guaranteed -- and there really isn't that much seignorage.  A miner today pays seventy cents (in electricity and amortized hardware costs) to earn a dollar's worth of bitcoins (not including the time to administer the operation).

Also, there are no guarantees.  A lot of people who bought at $16, $22, or $33 probably would disagree with you about their stash being easy money.

Now the big difference between those who have bitcoin wealth today and those who have banking system wealth is that the banking system continues to suck the blood from the system thanks to the corporatacracy that exists.    Since there is no competition by the free market, the parasitic system continues to feed off us.

With bitcoin, those who held bitcoin assets just have assets.   Once those assets are spent they must be earned.   And because so far there is relatively little regulatory intervention, there is no advantage given to incumbents.   So the fat don't get fatter.

So if the "it's not fair" argument is what you are struggling with, there's no better chance at arriving at a system free from unfair advantages than what Bitcoin offers.

It's fair. What stops you from earning thousands of Bitcoins and if you can earn or buy thousands you're an early adopter. Thousands of Bitcoins would make you a Bitcoin millionaire or even Billionaire. So we are still early adopters while the price is under $100 or under $1000. When it's over $1000 then you wont be able to afford 1000BTC. Right now you can afford 1000BTC but its harder than when BTC was $2 a coin.

[keithersb]

This can be a tool to get more people into bitcoin,
But we as a community need to agree on the dates and then promote it.

Innovators: 2009 - 2010
Early adopters:2011 - 2014
Early majority: 2015 - ?
Late majority: ?
Laggards: ?

[Adrian-x]

This can be a tool to get more people into bitcoin,
But we as a community need to agree on the dates and then promote it.

Innovators: 2009 - 2010
Early adopters:2011 - 2014
Early majority: 2015 - ?
Late majority: ?
Laggards: ?

I see it more as personally types.
The innovators are pragmatic, they are still joining they join this revolution by learning and contributing to Altcoins or new Bitcoin tools and infrastructure. The early adopters are the bitpay's and overstock.com's of the world. 

The early majority will be the average consumer the ones that come after Barry Silbert's third wave.

I think we are close to the chasm, not there yet but close.

[burekzastonj]

early addopters for sure

[zimmah]

I can't believe there was a discussion like this in 2012 while a majority of the world had not even HEARD of bitcoin, let alone adopt it.

[keithersb]

I can't believe there was a discussion like this in 2012 while a majority of the world had not even HEARD of bitcoin, let alone adopt it.

That is why I think 2014 is still early adopters.

[Adrian-x]

We're, given my view transitioning from innovator stage to early adopter stage now. My views have evolved and aren't set in stone. Sometimes I read something and I feel a little like a laggard.

Remember Bitcoin is many things to many people so each function served by Bitcoin has a similar normal distribution / adoption curve and not every function grows at the same rate.

[dennydotco]

Mainstream media has been taking about Bitcoin a lot more in 2014. Last year the few times it was mentioned it was always almost only a joke or a scam.

Large corporations like Dish and Dell are starting to accept Bitcoin as a payment through Coinbase and Bitpay, as well as smaller but still very big businesses like Overstock, Tiger Direct, and New Egg. Younger businesses like Shopify "get it".

I think we are approaching "The Chasm". I'm a 20-something in a college city. This year I have instigated friends of mine to purchase over $50,000 in Bitcoin. They see it as an opportunity to invest in the future once they really start to understand it. I work in coffee. None of those friends are tech oriented. They are the second generation - and when they make some money from this investment I think THEY will be the catalyst for the post Chasm early adopters and early majority.