price development on ASIC mining hardware

[el_rlee]

Hello All,

 what are your guesses on the price development for ASIC miners?
I guess the price for the first batch will include a big portion of the development cost...

Will they get dirt cheap soon? Will difficulty skyrocket beyond our imagination and buying the first products a bad decision?

[Uglux]

Hello,

my guess is, it will be similar to GPU and CPU price developement. Shiny new, low production, no competition -> expensive. After releasing some better versions (and with mass production), price for the old versions declining. More competition is going to push down prices additionally...
Difficulty will simply adjust to the state of technology. That moment of adjusting, from relative GPU "low" to "ASIC normal", is what drives some people crazy, like in a gold rush.

Another guess: this belongs to mining speculation.

Have a nice day.

[HorseRider]

Will difficulty skyrocket beyond our imagination and buying the first products a bad decision?

If your first batch arrives timely enough, it's a good decision. If late, buyers are screwed.

[byronbb]

I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x. If asic comes online and diff tops out bitcoins will be cheap because diff will be static but ghash will be monsterous. Am I off base here? This is based on my general assumptions. The next 6 months are going to be interesting in the world of bitcoins thats for sure.

[pretendo]

So do we know how much more efficient asics are than gener purpose?

[adamstgBit]

So do we know how much more efficient asics are than gener purpose?

About 10 times, if they make good on their promises.

[pretendo]

I mean in other applications that already exist, how big does the difference tend to be

[salty]

I mean in other applications that already exist, how big does the difference tend to be

They've been tested on SHA256 or SHA2 already I have seen an academic study paper. It was linked on here, but good luck trawling through a 30 page BFL trollfest finding it....

[salty]

I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x.

Really?

[arklan]

I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x.

Really?

this isn't accurate. the difficulty can only increase by a FACTOR of 4 in a given 2 week period. so it can't increase 100x in two weeks, but over months, absolutely can. i don't think there's any sort of upper limit on difficulty.

[Cablez]

I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x.

Really?

this isn't accurate. the difficulty can only increase by a FACTOR of 4 in a given 2 week 2016 block period. so it can't possibly could increase 100x in two weeks, but or more likely over a month, absolutely can. i don't think there's There is not any sort of upper limit on difficulty.

FTFY

[arklan]

I am under the impression the difficulty can only ever increase by a maximum of 4x.

Really?

this isn't accurate. the difficulty can only increase by a FACTOR of 4 in a given 2 week 2016 block period. so it can't possibly could increase 100x in two weeks, but or more likely over a month, absolutely can. i don't think there's There is not any sort of upper limit on difficulty.

FTFY

thanks.

[el_rlee]

how much do you think will the price on the devices go down?

[byronbb]

Yes I meant per diff change of 2016 blocks.