21 millions bitcoiners

[Hopalong]

Can you tell how it could replace fiat? I se no possible way that could ever happen. If fiat should fail there is no way to buy bitcoin with that fiat since noone would sell and there is no way of getting bitcoin spread around without everybody buying it.

It's not the first time a country replaces its own currency with another one.
Latest example is Zimbabwe: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-zimbabwe-1-will-cost-35-000000000000000-local-dollars/article7309953.ece

I don't know how this worked in the past, but seeing Bitcoin is not being possibly regulated in any way, it will probably go that early adopters like us are paying nearly nothing for it now, while in the future the price for one Bitcoin will increase considerably.

Now, this doesn't mean a person will have to buy always 1 BTC: that's simply impossible, also because there's only 21 millions. So it's already in the blueprint that people will use mBTC or even smaller amounts.

Now the Bitcoin market cap is over 4 billion $.
This will continue to grow, up to a point where the Bitcoin market cap and the $ in circulation will be the same.
At that point, not only Bitcoin will grow in value due to the fact that there will be always less available, and $ inflation will begin to become unbearable.

The last persons on the planet buying Bitcoin, will buy it at a value that could well be 1 BTC = 1 billion $ (of todays value, in future inflation could change that A LOT).
But those persons won't be buying 1 BTC, they will buy a fraction of it, like 2 mBTC in example, or some uBTC in exchange of some thousand dollars: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86894.0

So don't think that "one day there will be no $ to buy BTC, so that's impossible".
Think that 1) everything is possible, but even more, 2) replacement will happen slowly, more probably everybody will have some $ together with BTC for a long time yet.

There's also another scenario: once one government will see Bitcoin can't be stopped, it will declare its fiat currency obsolete and make it mandatory to replace it with Bitcoin before it goes out of course.
That will be probably the point when all fiat currencies will collapse and Bitcoin price will boost in a completely unpredictable manner: nobody will want fiat currency anymore, so from that point on, fiat currency will SLOWLY, SLOWLY get away from the scenario, because it will be less and less accepted in venues.

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

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[coinableS]

There's a very small amount of people sitting on a great deal of coins. If there were that many people clamouring in quick succession it's quite possible sellers would just go on strike and the price would way overshoot a realistic value.

I like gentlemand's explanation/prediction the best. I agree, if the demand is through the roof and there are over 21 million actual bitcoin users, many people would likely stop selling or saying "yea I'll sell you one for a billion dollars". 

[GODLIKE]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES.
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. Or more possibly, 5 uBTC.
 And those may be his savings of one life.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

[Hopalong]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.You are the one claiming something that cant be for real. It is a dream bitcoin hoarders have that is not shared by anyone else

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES. People are not selling those. They are using them
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?This is just wrong. If a fiat fail they make a new one. Why bother with some digital "money" only a handfull people have?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.If the price of led rised to insane hights just because someone wanted to buy them nobody would swap out their light bulbs
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. And those may be his savings of one life. If some guy from Zimbabwe wanted to buy bitcoin from you with those 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, would you sell? I guess you would not and the same will happen i a fiat fail.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

[jonald_fyookball]

There's a very small amount of people sitting on a great deal of coins. If there were that many people clamouring in quick succession it's quite possible sellers would just go on strike and the price would way overshoot a realistic value.

I like gentlemand's explanation/prediction the best. I agree, if the demand is through the roof and there are over 21 million actual bitcoin users, many people would likely stop selling or saying "yea I'll sell you one for a billion dollars". 

Obviously if the demand is bigger than the supply, the price goes up.  It will go to levels where some
buyers and sellers agree on the price, just like any other scarce resource.
This isn't rocket science.  Just like premium domain names became worth millions of dollars once
everyone realized they wanted one and there weren't enough to go around.  The only difference
is that Bitcoin is divisible, and that actually will help bring the demand even higher because it eliminates
barriers to entry based on price, thus increasing the market for buyers.

[GODLIKE]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.You are the one claiming something that cant be for real. It is a dream bitcoin hoarders have that is not shared by anyone else

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES. People are not selling those. They are using them
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?This is just wrong. If a fiat fail they make a new one. Why bother with some digital "money" only a handfull people have?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.If the price of led rised to insane hights just because someone wanted to buy them nobody would swap out their light bulbs
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. And those may be his savings of one life. If some guy from Zimbabwe wanted to buy bitcoin from you with those 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, would you sell? I guess you would not and the same will happen i a fiat fail.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

That last guy giving some uBTC for those zimbadollars, would probably spend them in the last shop that still accept them... and the owner of the shop would probably then use them to warm his house by burning them.
You can't know, and that's why I gave you the example of stupid people.

The only way fiat centralized currency COULD stay forever, is if governments will find a way to stop cryptocurrencies adoption.
If this doesn't happen, they will one day disappear.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

[futureofbitcoin]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun 

That is not true. I never said bitcoins can't reach 160k/coin. I'm not talking about the value per coin. I'm talking about the amount of wealth the average bitcoiner holds.

We know that bitcoiners are pretty much average or slightly above average in terms of wealth, based on surveys taking by coindesk etc. The average person is worth ~50k USD. So how can the average bitcoiner have more than triple that amount in bitcoins? Note that we're not even considering their other assets. They won't be putting absolutely everything they own into bitcoin.

It just isn't possible. It has nothing to do with the technology or how much bitcoin blockchain should be worth. Simply that given only 21 million users, a value of 160k isn't possible. But with 2.1 Billion users, 160k is totally possible.

[GODLIKE]

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun 

That is not true. I never said bitcoins can't reach 160k/coin. I'm not talking about the value per coin. I'm talking about the amount of wealth the average bitcoiner holds.

We know that bitcoiners are pretty much average or slightly above average in terms of wealth, based on surveys taking by coindesk etc. The average person is worth ~50k USD. So how can the average bitcoiner have more than triple that amount in bitcoins? Note that we're not even considering their other assets. They won't be putting absolutely everything they own into bitcoin.

It just isn't possible. It has nothing to do with the technology or how much bitcoin blockchain should be worth. Simply that given only 21 million users, a value of 160k isn't possible. But with 2.1 Billion users, 160k is totally possible.

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

[Hopalong]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.You are the one claiming something that cant be for real. It is a dream bitcoin hoarders have that is not shared by anyone else

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES. People are not selling those. They are using them
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?This is just wrong. If a fiat fail they make a new one. Why bother with some digital "money" only a handfull people have?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.If the price of led rised to insane hights just because someone wanted to buy them nobody would swap out their light bulbs
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. And those may be his savings of one life. If some guy from Zimbabwe wanted to buy bitcoin from you with those 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, would you sell? I guess you would not and the same will happen i a fiat fail.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy. There is nothing with bitcoin that makes it better than any other currency. It is just the first crypto.

"My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding."  You made a claim about bitcoin going to replace fiat and i just asked you to explain how that would happen. If you cant tell me how that could happen there is not much reason to discuss since you cant back your claim.

I do think this is a good question since many on this forum belive bitcoin will replace another currency but have no idea about how that is suppose to happen.

[GODLIKE]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.You are the one claiming something that cant be for real. It is a dream bitcoin hoarders have that is not shared by anyone else

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES. People are not selling those. They are using them
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?This is just wrong. If a fiat fail they make a new one. Why bother with some digital "money" only a handfull people have?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.If the price of led rised to insane hights just because someone wanted to buy them nobody would swap out their light bulbs
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. And those may be his savings of one life. If some guy from Zimbabwe wanted to buy bitcoin from you with those 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, would you sell? I guess you would not and the same will happen i a fiat fail.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy. There is nothing with bitcoin that makes it better than any other currency. It is just the first crypto.

"My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding."  You made a claim about bitcoin going to replace fiat and i just asked you to explain how that would happen. If you cant tell me how that could happen there is not much reason to discuss since you cant back your claim.

I do think this is a good question since many on this forum belive bitcoin will replace another currency but have no idea about how that is suppose to happen.

I wrote HOW, and I wrote in the simplest way I can. Bye.

[futureofbitcoin]

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

You are regurgitating common answers to common misconceptions about bitcoin that has nothing to do with what I said.

It has nothing to do with fractions or satoshis. If there are 21 million bitcoins, and there are 21 million bitcoin users, and each bitcoin is worth 160k, then by default of those parameters, the average holdings per bitcoin user is worth 160k USD. That is the definition of average.

And because the wealth of bitcoiners closely reflect the wealth of average people, the above scenario is VERY unlikely to happen. The key here is the limiter of 21 million bitcoin users. Without that assumption, then anything goes. But that assumption limits a lot of scenarios.

[b-trading]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

I think US$ 10K per 1 Btc logicly will be happen soon for the next several years and we dont have to wait for 21 M user of bitcoin..cause it will happen very soon

[Hopalong]

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.You are the one claiming something that cant be for real. It is a dream bitcoin hoarders have that is not shared by anyone else

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES. People are not selling those. They are using them
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?This is just wrong. If a fiat fail they make a new one. Why bother with some digital "money" only a handfull people have?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.If the price of led rised to insane hights just because someone wanted to buy them nobody would swap out their light bulbs
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. And those may be his savings of one life. If some guy from Zimbabwe wanted to buy bitcoin from you with those 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, would you sell? I guess you would not and the same will happen i a fiat fail.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy. There is nothing with bitcoin that makes it better than any other currency. It is just the first crypto.

"My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding."  You made a claim about bitcoin going to replace fiat and i just asked you to explain how that would happen. If you cant tell me how that could happen there is not much reason to discuss since you cant back your claim.

I do think this is a good question since many on this forum belive bitcoin will replace another currency but have no idea about how that is suppose to happen.

I wrote HOW, and I wrote in the simplest way I can. Bye.

Try a simpler way. One that can work in the real world.

At the moment bitcoin its much more like paypal and neteller than a currency. You can store and send funds quite easy but thats it.

[jonald_fyookball]

 

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy.  

You seem to not understand how markets and price discovery works.
When "no one can buy", the price ticks higher until there is an agreement
between buyers and sellers based on the volume needed to be traded.

From investopedia:

Suppose that a one-of-a-kind diamond is found in the remote countryside of Africa by a miner. An investor hears about the find, phones the miner and offers to buy the diamond for $1 million. The miner says she wants a day or two to think about it. In the interim, newspapers and other investors come forward and show their interest. With other investors apparently interested in the diamond, the miner holds out for $1.1 million and rejects the $1 million offer. Now suppose two more potential buyers make themselves known and submit bids for $1.2 million and $1.3 million dollars, respectively. The new asking price of that diamond is going to go up.
The following day, a miner in Asia uncovers 10 more diamonds exactly like the one found by the miner in Africa. As a result, both the price and demand for the African diamond will drop precipitously because of the sudden abundance of the once-rare diamond. This example - and the concept of supply and demand - can be applied to stocks as well.

[GODLIKE]

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

You are regurgitating common answers to common misconceptions about bitcoin that has nothing to do with what I said.

It has nothing to do with fractions or satoshis. If there are 21 million bitcoins, and there are 21 million bitcoin users, and each bitcoin is worth 160k, then by default of those parameters, the average holdings per bitcoin user is worth 160k USD. That is the definition of average.

And because the wealth of bitcoiners closely reflect the wealth of average people, the above scenario is VERY unlikely to happen. The key here is the limiter of 21 million bitcoin users. Without that assumption, then anything goes. But that assumption limits a lot of scenarios.

I am not regurgitating anything.

Bitcoin is not reflecting anything at the moment, apart the wish, from a large group of people, to invest in a new technology.

If there are 21 million bitcoiners, and each of them wants some bitcoin, he will buy what he can.

If you think the average bitcoiner will have 160000$ holdings you are deeply wrong.
As you would be wrong thinking the average bitcoiner now has 270$ holdings...

Wealth of bitcoiners doesn't reflect ANYTHING about their wealth.

I just posted the thread with a 21 millionth bitcoiner as compared to the cap of 21 million bitcoins (which is also wrong, because it's not exactly 21 millions).

So in this "thought experiment" you should only imagine HOW MUCH REQUEST FOR BITCOINS THERE WILL BE, when bitcoiners will hit n. 21 millions.
If growth would be linear, and we are now 1.5 millions then when we'll hit 21 millions the count would be 21/1.5*270 (actual price) = 3780$ only.
But there are more factors to put in, like the daily traffic in example, and I don't think the value increase in a linear way, I also think the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is underestimated at the moment.
But all of this goes into the equation, you can say whatever value you want a Bitcoin will have, when the 21 millionth bitcoin user will want to buy some bitcoin.
He will buy what he can or what he wants.
Doesn't have anything to do with average holdings.
Nobody has transformed his entire wealth in Bitcoins. Nobody.

[futureofbitcoin]

If you think the average bitcoiner will have 160000$ holdings you are deeply wrong.
As you would be wrong thinking the average bitcoiner now has 270$ holdings...

Wealth of bitcoiners doesn't reflect ANYTHING about their wealth.

So in this "thought experiment" you should only imagine HOW MUCH REQUEST FOR BITCOINS THERE WILL BE

1. I am not deeply wrong, that is the definition of average. total amount divided by the number of people. That's what average means. 21M * 160k / 21M = 160k. It's very simple math, if you can't understand that, there's no point in continuing this conversation.

2. I don't think the average bitcoiner holds $270 worth of bitcoins, because the number of bitcoiners are not exactly the same as the number of coins. Again, you should probably learn what "average" means. To clarify, I am not talking about the median or mode. I am talking about the average, or "mean".

3. Sure it does. If a person owns $10 worth of bitcoins, his net worth is AT LEAST $10. It can't be less. Unless he has liabilities of course, but that's a completely different topic.

4. If you're going to ignore the OP and completely change the question to your own, then, well, you're free to do that, but you should probably just start your own thread instead.

[Hopalong]

 

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy.  

You seem to not understand how markets and price discovery works.
When "no one can buy", the price ticks higher until there is an agreement
between buyers and sellers based on the volume needed to be traded.

From investopedia:

Suppose that a one-of-a-kind diamond is found in the remote countryside of Africa by a miner. An investor hears about the find, phones the miner and offers to buy the diamond for $1 million. The miner says she wants a day or two to think about it. In the interim, newspapers and other investors come forward and show their interest. With other investors apparently interested in the diamond, the miner holds out for $1.1 million and rejects the $1 million offer. Now suppose two more potential buyers make themselves known and submit bids for $1.2 million and $1.3 million dollars, respectively. The new asking price of that diamond is going to go up.
The following day, a miner in Asia uncovers 10 more diamonds exactly like the one found by the miner in Africa. As a result, both the price and demand for the African diamond will drop precipitously because of the sudden abundance of the once-rare diamond. This example - and the concept of supply and demand - can be applied to stocks as well.

The problem is that only a handfull of people have bitcoin. And of those handfull there are about 100 that have insane amounts. That would not sound good to normal people. And by normal i dont count those who see crypto as a salvation against the evil goverment but those who just want to live a normal life. I also think normal people would stick to the national currency and would not care if that was a crypto or fiat. Bitcoin is never going to be a national currency so that would be a party pooper.

Even if there is a demand for a replacement for fiat there is noone who would trade all they own for bitcoin when the price skyrocket. They would look for something widespread not something less used than Zynga chips. The rules for trade only works for trade. People dont want to trade currencies they want to buy bread and milk.

[GODLIKE]

 

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy.  

You seem to not understand how markets and price discovery works.
When "no one can buy", the price ticks higher until there is an agreement
between buyers and sellers based on the volume needed to be traded.

It's incredible how some people simply can't catch the whole picture.
You tell him that when 1 BTC will value 100000 $, people will still buy a part of it, it's not mandatory to buy ONE Bitcoin.
He still say that people will raise the price so high that no one can buy, because he still thinks people will want to buy ONE Bitcoin.
He can't accept that people will exchange what they can for the equivalent in Bitcoins, like 500 mBTC or 3420 uBTC in example.
And that all of that will be totally proportional to what can be bought with either BTC or $.
He just can't catch it.

If in the future there will be so much request for Bitcoins that 1 BTC will equal to 1 trillion $, then well yes, I'll set the bar to 1 trillion $ for my BTC, and whoever will want to buy, he will buy a fraction of that BTC.
If at that time 1 satoshi or 1$ will buy you a cappuccino, and you will want 50000$ in Bitcoins, then you will get from me 0.00050000 Bitcoins.
I will still sell you bitcoins, because there will still be some shops accepting $.
Then there will be less, and you will have to pay even more $ to have some Bitcoins.
And then there will be less shops accepting $.
And less. And I will still raise the price of my Bitcoins.
And at one point, AS I WROTE, the less gifted part of world population will still be sitting on a pile of $ or € or £ etc. and the only use they will be able to do of those will be to warm up their houses by throwing them in the chimney.

[GODLIKE]

 

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy.  

You seem to not understand how markets and price discovery works.
When "no one can buy", the price ticks higher until there is an agreement
between buyers and sellers based on the volume needed to be traded.

From investopedia:

Suppose that a one-of-a-kind diamond is found in the remote countryside of Africa by a miner. An investor hears about the find, phones the miner and offers to buy the diamond for $1 million. The miner says she wants a day or two to think about it. In the interim, newspapers and other investors come forward and show their interest. With other investors apparently interested in the diamond, the miner holds out for $1.1 million and rejects the $1 million offer. Now suppose two more potential buyers make themselves known and submit bids for $1.2 million and $1.3 million dollars, respectively. The new asking price of that diamond is going to go up.
The following day, a miner in Asia uncovers 10 more diamonds exactly like the one found by the miner in Africa. As a result, both the price and demand for the African diamond will drop precipitously because of the sudden abundance of the once-rare diamond. This example - and the concept of supply and demand - can be applied to stocks as well.

The problem is that only a handfull of people have bitcoin. And of those handfull there are about 100 that have insane amounts. That would not sound good to normal people. And by normal i dont count those who see crypto as a salvation against the evil goverment but those who just want to live a normal life. I also think normal people would stick to the national currency and would not care if that was a crypto or fiat. Bitcoin is never going to be a national currency so that would be a party pooper.

Even if there is a demand for a replacement for fiat there is noone who would trade all they own for bitcoin when the price skyrocket. They would look for something widespread not something less used than Zynga chips. The rules for trade only works for trade. People dont want to trade currencies they want to buy bread and milk.

How many people hold how much of this huge part of Bitcoins?
I'm ignorant in this.
But I agree that if 50% of Bitcoins is held by 5 people, then those 5 will become the world's dominators, and people will surely move onto something else.
But this is not the discussion we were holding before. We were talking about "no more fiat to buy crypto".

Anyway, even in this case of unfair money distribution, people could just let Bitcoin fall and move onto another cryptocurrency.
Or a couple of those.
And let Bitcoin freefall unless the whales sell at fair price.
But whales could also never be traced back if they use some anonymizing service... we would never know.

[Pab]

BTC will be 50 cents or 5 cents