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Author Topic: All the bubbles were fake?  (Read 1507 times)
cafucafucafu
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August 01, 2015, 02:45:38 PM
 #1

According to Adam Turner:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/







Does this mean we will not see future bubbles?


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August 01, 2015, 03:28:20 PM
 #2

Nope, sorry it's over.

cafucafucafu
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August 01, 2015, 03:33:41 PM
 #3

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.


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August 01, 2015, 04:12:53 PM
 #4

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.

Well the fiat did not really exist. It was just numbers on users browsers. Once people started trying to actually withdraw these numbers is when the bank withdrawal issues and account freezes started happening. A lot of people could not withdraw for at least months before the final collapse, and were given various excuses throughout.
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August 01, 2015, 04:29:32 PM
 #5

It's entirely possible the bubbles were manipulated sadly. Maybe that's a good thing though. Bitcoin needs time to grown and not just shoot up and down on a whim.

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.

Well he needed the fiat coming in and it didn't matter about money going out because he blocked the withdrawls so no money went out eventually and that's how people lost pout because there was no real money or coins.
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August 01, 2015, 04:41:00 PM
 #6

It's entirely possible the bubbles were manipulated sadly. Maybe that's a good thing though. Bitcoin needs time to grown and not just shoot up and down on a whim.

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.

Well he needed the fiat coming in and it didn't matter about money going out because he blocked the withdrawls so no money went out eventually and that's how people lost pout because there was no real money or coins.

Why even go down that route? No fiat would come in by him buying bitcoins from exchange users. He was only putting himself in debt. It makes no sense. Unless he was trying to accumulate BTC?

It was easier for him to inflate the price by buying and selling to himself (using fake accounts) and then to sell the BTC at those inflated prices.

I think you are right we wont see another massive bubble. Just a slow grind.


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August 01, 2015, 05:00:40 PM
 #7

It's entirely possible the bubbles were manipulated sadly. Maybe that's a good thing though. Bitcoin needs time to grown and not just shoot up and down on a whim.

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.

Well he needed the fiat coming in and it didn't matter about money going out because he blocked the withdrawls so no money went out eventually and that's how people lost pout because there was no real money or coins.

Why even go down that route? No fiat would come in by him buying bitcoins from exchange users. He was only putting himself in debt. It makes no sense. Unless he was trying to accumulate BTC?

It was easier for him to inflate the price by buying and selling to himself (using fake accounts) and then to sell the BTC at those inflated prices.

I think you are right we wont see another massive bubble. Just a slow grind.

Wasn't the Mt Gox history thanks to that bot called "Willy"? apparently it managed to pump the price, which coupled with actual real bullish pressure made Bitcoin go higher than gold.
Bitcoin is still a really new technology and we cannot properly value it so im sure we'll see even more massive bubbles.

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August 01, 2015, 05:14:50 PM
 #8

Well, bubbles are most of the time effect of manipulation of whales, effect of the bots doing their transactions in the shadows.
Now we know that that huge spike price of 2013 was caused partially by Mtgox bot called 'Willy'. So it is safe to say that other bubbles and spikes can be 'fake' too.


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August 01, 2015, 05:48:40 PM
 #9

According to Adam Turner:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/

Does this mean we will not see future bubbles?

This is interesting, thanks for sharing. If it happened once it can definitely happen again, so to answer your question "does this mean we will not see future bubbles?" The answer is "No", future bubbles are inevitable...either due to real run-ups or manufactured run-ups (like Adam suggests here).

The bubble isn't something that's bitcoin specific, it can happen any where supply and demand (or perceived supply and demand) exist.

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August 01, 2015, 05:54:21 PM
 #10

The big rally in November 2013 was caused by trade roberts running at Mt.Gox.
This has been proven and documented, people have analyzed that rally closely,
it was made my executing fake orders, pretty easy if you control the main exhange.
That is eventually what lead to mt.gox dead.
If you ask me, pretty good mt.gox died, we have pretty much stabalized the price by now.
Bitcoins should be worth about 250 BTC if you take out mt.gox of the equations. 
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August 01, 2015, 06:54:58 PM
 #11

Bitcoin companies would actually benefit from another bubble, so yet it is possible that another bubble will occur , maybe not this year but later. Too many investors and companies have invested into Bitcoin and they will of course try to make the bitcoin price rise for their own benefit.

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August 01, 2015, 07:01:36 PM
 #12

if for bubble you see furious pump, i'm fine with the possibility of not seeing once in the future, they are not healty at all for bitcoin value, they cause huge spike and suddenly, crash, the same as when you eat tons of sugar and your level of glucose , rise too much and quickly

if we can keep the steady growth that we are facing now, you will not be seen any major crash in the future
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August 01, 2015, 07:07:36 PM
 #13

I might believe that Mt. Gox did pump up the price of Bitcoin to theatm high in November of 2013. However, this is now behind us and we need to look ak the future. In the future, I see that Bitcoin has a market and a bright future even without another alleged Mt. Gox pump, and that's all that matters to me as an investor and BTC follower.
The rest is history!
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August 01, 2015, 07:19:52 PM
 #14

Does this mean we will not see future bubbles?
No bubble is better than subsequent trouble.

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August 02, 2015, 07:49:40 AM
 #15

I believe in the story that Mt.Gox was the main reason of the hype and that insane bubble of 1200+ USD, but it doesn't even matter anymore, because
however it was played out, it pushed bitcoin into the targeted audience, and created a whole range of bitcoin speculators and wannabe millionares, that are
as a result of that, fueling the price and awareness to this day.

cheers

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August 02, 2015, 12:39:19 PM
 #16

This isn't anything new. There was actually a much detailed analysis done by someone quite some time ago about how the spikes coincided with bot activity on gox.
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August 02, 2015, 12:55:28 PM
 #17

It's entirely possible the bubbles were manipulated sadly. Maybe that's a good thing though. Bitcoin needs time to grown and not just shoot up and down on a whim.

I don't understand why he would use an account to buy at a surplus rate and not use other accounts to sell at those rates. I.e. why not buy and sell from himself? That way he would not need to include fiat in the equation at all. Buying from his customers would mean having to produce fiat.

Well he needed the fiat coming in and it didn't matter about money going out because he blocked the withdrawls so no money went out eventually and that's how people lost pout because there was no real money or coins.

Why even go down that route? No fiat would come in by him buying bitcoins from exchange users. He was only putting himself in debt. It makes no sense. Unless he was trying to accumulate BTC?

It was easier for him to inflate the price by buying and selling to himself (using fake accounts) and then to sell the BTC at those inflated prices.

I think you are right we wont see another massive bubble. Just a slow grind.

If he was only letting fiat come in (stopped fiat withdrawls), and meanwhile sitting on a large stash of BTC, then the way to pay out least total fiat value of redemptions was a higher btc price ... meaning the show could carry on only until the BTC ran out, which would happen much quicker when the BTC price dropped. Sounds like it became just a classic Ponzi scheme by the end, robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Then you have to ask yourself if the willy bot was only source for the wave up why did the wave up end before Gox blew up? ... there are other reasons that simplistic explanation doesn't stack up also, like Chinese exchange volumes and price reaction to bitstamp crash on way up etc.

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August 02, 2015, 12:57:56 PM
 #18

What I'm more interested in is how low the price could realistically go.

I don't mean flash dumps, I mean a sustained globally accepted price. So far in this 'bubble' I can't say that I've seen it sustained under $200 a piece, yet...

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August 02, 2015, 03:26:14 PM
 #19

The bubble was NOT fake, because I made real money with it...

My ignore list here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1652334.0 +++ GPG Public key FFBD756C24B54962E6A772EA1C680D74DB714D40 +++ http://pgp.mit.edu/pks/lookup?op=get&search=0x1C680D74DB714D40
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August 02, 2015, 04:44:12 PM
 #20

the real crash happened because n economic Superstar called Mwuah

started playing the Mtgox exchange and they decided to pull the plug on me

i withdrew to Doge on Crypsty and BigVern started pulling the same BS on my trades

so I withdrew my funds

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