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Author Topic: How long would we have to wait to see a bitcoin address collision? a LONG time.  (Read 1658 times)
GODLIKE
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August 03, 2015, 10:57:48 AM
 #21

Our planet

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

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August 03, 2015, 11:01:46 AM
 #22

you don't gamble very much do you? It's possible to have a collision in the next minute.
You don't like mathematics do you? There is a huge difference between possible and probable. While a collision is possible at the moment it is highly unlikely.
Even if we are going to see the first collision in 500 years, it doesn't matter. Nobody can honestly expect any money system to last that long. Even if Bitcoin becomes widely adopted, eventually it will be replaced by something better (just as Bitcoin is replacing current systems) or it will have to be extensively upgraded.

there is a way to know if a collision happened, i mean blockchain will tell you that? because otherwise the one who will generate it, because of heavy luck, will not say a word about it, and no one will know if a collision has occured or not...
Well if you get lucky you would notice an added balance to your wallet. Otherwise you can manually check the first time the addresses has been seen in the blockchain. I do not think that others can know if you've generated a existing address though. Only the person(s) involved would know at first.

You could just answer him: KEEP BETTIN!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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August 03, 2015, 11:14:46 AM
 #23

Our planet

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

The randomnes of things make everything possible without caring the slightest about the math.

People play lotto with realy bad odds of winning but there are winners all the time. Some people even win several times when the odds says that only happens if you play for millions of years. If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...
DannyHamilton
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August 03, 2015, 11:35:55 AM
 #24

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%

Math is the reason that you should NOT waste your time or money on a "Martingale System".

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August 03, 2015, 01:33:18 PM
 #25

What would happen if this actually happened? Like what would the consequences be of an address being generated as new, actually being one with a previous history and record? what would happen if you did a transaction? would the funds of said address suddendly pop on your wallet? weird stuff to think about, its almost like a glitch in the matrix.
Fortunately lifetime of bitcoin won't that be long and we will have upgraded version of core protocol. Entirely new future coin with insane possibilities and features or/or other payment method.
If you think bitcoin will be alive and kicking in its current state year 2030+ you are either too optimistic or misinformed.

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August 03, 2015, 01:43:37 PM
 #26

Our planet has approximately 7 billion people on it.  Let's ignore the problems of population growth for the moment and assume we will always have 7 billion people.   
 
Now let's also assume that starting this very second, all those people (our global population of seven billion) each begins to click the button to generate a new bitcoin address every second
 
"WHY ARE YOU GENERATING SO MANY FUCKING ADDRESSES!  You're going to cause a bitcoin address collision!" yells the supreme bitcoin chancellor of Earth.  "STOP IT!"  ಠ_ಠ
 
Let's pretend everyone's in on the joke, and they all ignore him. 
    ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
  

 
With every human on Earth, all generating a new address every second it would still take about 6.5 billion years in order for there to be a 50/50 chance of a bitcoin address collision.  For there to be approximately a 99% chance of a collision, the assholes would need to keep up this buffonery for about 11.7 billion years total
 
Looking ahead to what scientists think will be the timeline of our planet: 
  

 
  • 500–600 million:  Estimated time until a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction.
  • 800 million:  Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.  Free oxygen and ozone disappear from the atmosphere. Multicellular life dies out.
  • 1 billion: The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.
  • 1.3 billion: Eukaryotic life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.
  • 2.3 billion: The Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.  Without its liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field shuts down, and charged particles emanating from the Sun gradually deplete the atmosphere.
  • 2.8 billion:  Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~420 K (147 °C, 296 °F). At this point life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.
  • 3.5 billion:  Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.
  • 5 billion: With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a red giant.
  • 7.59 billion: The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the tip of its red giant phase and its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.  Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface
 
  
(Source: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future)  


 
Summary:  I'm pretty sure there will never be a bitcoin address collision.  My math might not be perfect, but it shouldn't be off by more than an order of magnitude.  You are welcome to fact check me and I'll correct it if necessary.

I'm afraid this would never happen.
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August 03, 2015, 02:03:40 PM
 #27

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%
 
 
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red. 
 
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

Account is back under control of the real AmericanPegasus.
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August 03, 2015, 02:42:48 PM
 #28

Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.

The game doesn't have a memory.  It doesn't matter if there have just been 35 blacks in a row, 35 reds in a row, or any other combination. If we are talking about a properly balanced roulette wheel with no cheating influences and only an equal number of red and black results, then the chance that the next result will be red is exactly 50%.

Clearly you don't understand probability.

Yes. I do.

You, however, appear to be experiencing a common misunderstanding of the Law of large numbers known as the Gambler's fallacy.


Eventually there has to be a black,

While it is very likely that black will eventually occur, the odds that it will occur in the next trial are only 50%.

and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red.  

This is completely false.  It is exactly as likely that it will continue to be red as it is that it will continue to be black.

So the chances are *way* less than 50%.

No, they aren't.

Black is a sure bet.

It is not.

(while the odds do not change over time, and do not change as specific patterns occur, the odds DO change as other colors (such as green) are added to the possible result set.)

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August 03, 2015, 02:46:48 PM
 #29

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%
 
 
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red. 
 
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

The chances of RED coming up on a fair table, no Green Zero or double zero etc.., are ALWAYS 50%. Even if there have been 1 million reds in a row before it.

As for the 'Deep-Time' stuff in the OP.. Way Cool..  Grin

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August 03, 2015, 05:09:43 PM
 #30

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%
 
  
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red.  
  
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

Past observations do not affect future outcomes when it comes to randomness.  If this were true casinos wouldn't have roulette.  The odds red or black for double zero roulette btw are 47.37%.  You will eventually lose your money and that's why Las Vegas casinos are so big.  The only three ways mathematically to win (I know for sure) are positive expectation video poker, cheating (counting cards) at black jack, and being good at poker, in a casino.  I personally made a lot of money at poker and video poker back when it was more profitable.  I know people who make 60k+ a year playing black jack but, it seems very stressful to me.
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August 03, 2015, 05:17:27 PM
 #31

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%

Math is the reason that you should NOT waste your time or money on a "Martingale System".

There is a right and a wrong way. Using free money they give you as a new member on a site is right. Using your own money is wrong.

Got 3 euros on a site and turned it into 1100 euros. Redrawing that and never going back to that site felt good...
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August 03, 2015, 05:20:07 PM
 #32

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%
 
  
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red.  
  
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

Past observations do not affect future outcomes when it comes to randomness.  If this were true casinos wouldn't have roulette.  The odds red or black for double zero roulette btw are 47.37%.  You will eventually lose your money and that's why Las Vegas casinos are so big.  The only three ways mathematically to win (I know for sure) are positive expectation video poker, cheating (counting cards) at black jack, and being good at poker, in a casino.  I personally made a lot of money at poker and video poker back when it was more profitable.  I know people who make 60k+ a year playing black jack but, it seems very stressful to me.

Had poker as my only income for a year. Not easy money since i used a lot more time on poker than i would at a real job. Gave it up and only play for fun now.
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August 03, 2015, 05:23:32 PM
 #33

If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%
 
  
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red.  
  
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

I have had the same colour coming up 13 times in a row. Start with $1 and double it 13 times and you know why so many say you should never try martingale. Black will come eventually but you can go broke while you wait.
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August 03, 2015, 05:26:57 PM
 #34

Surprising fantasy. Deign to the mos famous fictions books and if the author will try to develop better and in depth the situation it will be for sure born a very successful and popular scenario which will be asked from the hollywoodian director Steven Spielberg.

I encourage americanpegasus to think seriously about this because it will be even a very good publicity for the bitcoin too.  Cheesy

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August 03, 2015, 05:27:41 PM
 #35

I'm pretty sure americanpegasus is just trolling you, danny. I would think that he understands basic gambler's fallacy.


GODLIKE
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August 03, 2015, 06:44:57 PM
 #36

Our planet

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

The randomnes of things make everything possible without caring the slightest about the math.

People play lotto with realy bad odds of winning but there are winners all the time. Some people even win several times when the odds says that only happens if you play for millions of years. If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...


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August 03, 2015, 07:16:02 PM
 #37

Our planet

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

The randomnes of things make everything possible without caring the slightest about the math.

People play lotto with realy bad odds of winning but there are winners all the time. Some people even win several times when the odds says that only happens if you play for millions of years. If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

because the probability work better on the long terms like with poker, i mean it's more true the more you play, and not immediately, also it is obvious that if many play one of them must win

and until now nothing that was said to have a probability of million years, has happened ever, so your logic is flawed

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Hopalong
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August 03, 2015, 07:31:02 PM
 #38

Our planet

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

The randomnes of things make everything possible without caring the slightest about the math.

People play lotto with realy bad odds of winning but there are winners all the time. Some people even win several times when the odds says that only happens if you play for millions of years. If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

because the probability work better on the long terms like with poker, i mean it's more true the more you play, and not immediately, also it is obvious that if many play one of them must win

and until now nothing that was said to have a probability of million years, has happened ever, so your logic is flawed

What logic? I talk about random things happening whenever you dont expect it. Like winning lotto twice. Like OP just wanting to post something and someone else just do it. Like a meteor falling down and whiping out everything bigger than a rat.

Happens all the time and no logic is involved.
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August 03, 2015, 08:20:49 PM
 #39



What logic? I talk about random things happening whenever you dont expect it. Like winning lotto twice. Like OP just wanting to post something and someone else just do it. Like a meteor falling down and whiping out everything bigger than a rat.

Happens all the time and no logic is involved.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/487101-its-strange-enough-these-people-won-the-lottery-twice-but-the-coincidences-dont-end-there/

It would make sense that strange things happen once in a while.  Statistically, I think you are much more likely to win the lottery twice than to be able to bruteforce a private key.

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August 03, 2015, 08:32:53 PM
 #40



What logic? I talk about random things happening whenever you dont expect it. Like winning lotto twice. Like OP just wanting to post something and someone else just do it. Like a meteor falling down and whiping out everything bigger than a rat.

Happens all the time and no logic is involved.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/487101-its-strange-enough-these-people-won-the-lottery-twice-but-the-coincidences-dont-end-there/

It would make sense that strange things happen once in a while.  Statistically, I think you are much more likely to win the lottery twice than to be able to bruteforce a private key.

Yes, bruteforcing is probably a waste of time for you and your realitives for a long time. Randomly hiting a used adress can happen. http://www.palkeo.com/code/stealing-bitcoin.html

No idea if he tells the truth or not.
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