Jutarul
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October 03, 2012, 12:31:55 AM |
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Moore's Law and higher nm processes.
True, but say you had a basic $1200 budget: 2010: ~10-15Mh/s 2011: ~1400Mh/s 2012: ~2200Mh/s (achievable with cheap GPUs) 2013: >50000Mh/s As much as Moore's law etc will have an impact, I don't think we'll ever see hashrate/$ go up >20x in a single year again. Hope not anyway yep. ASICs are endgame.
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jamesg (OP)
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October 03, 2012, 12:34:30 AM |
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Moore's Law and higher nm processes.
True, but say you had a basic $1200 budget: 2010: ~10-15Mh/s 2011: ~1400Mh/s 2012: ~2200Mh/s (achievable with cheap GPUs) 2013: >50000Mh/s As much as Moore's law etc will have an impact, I don't think we'll ever see hashrate/$ go up >20x in a single year again. Hope not anyway yep. ASICs are endgame. I never meant to suggest that a 20x increase would happen again. But doubling every 18 months is still an interesting thought. Plus, we are seeing that most ASICs are on old nm processes, so they can be improved more quickly.
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Inaba
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October 03, 2012, 01:04:38 AM |
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Why does no on believe me! The BFL Minirig QC will be out RSN!
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If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it. There was never anything there in the first place.
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kano
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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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October 03, 2012, 02:14:51 AM |
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The singles ended up using 4 times as much power per Megahash as BFL claimed they would initially. What's to stop that happening again?
I usually learn lessons the hard way, but once they are learned, they are not repeated. I hope it is the same with BFL. ... Actually ... This time they have to be at least 10x better than they were last time ... do people usually get that much better per iteration? Before was 400% If this time they are 10x better at estimating, i.e. only 40%, then the 1.5kW becomes 2.1kW = 19.1A on 110V .........
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Bogart
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October 03, 2012, 02:22:01 AM |
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The singles ended up using 4 times as much power per Megahash as BFL claimed they would initially. What's to stop that happening again?
I usually learn lessons the hard way, but once they are learned, they are not repeated. I hope it is the same with BFL. ... Actually ... This time they have to be at least 10x better than they were last time ... do people usually get that much better per iteration? Before was 400% If this time they are 10x better at estimating, i.e. only 40%, then the 1.5kW becomes 2.1kW = 19.1A on 110V .........
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"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
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MrTeal
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October 03, 2012, 06:23:15 AM |
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Or they run two 1200W PSUs instead of trying to source a 2kW model
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Meatball
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October 03, 2012, 04:54:27 PM Last edit: October 03, 2012, 07:28:41 PM by Meatball |
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Moore's Law and higher nm processes.
True, but say you had a basic $1200 budget: 2010: ~10-15Mh/s 2011: ~1400Mh/s 2012: ~2200Mh/s (achievable with cheap GPUs) 2013: >50000Mh/s As much as Moore's law etc will have an impact, I don't think we'll ever see hashrate/$ go up >20x in a single year again. Hope not anyway Yeah, I don't think you can use Moore's law in this case. Moore's law considers the same type of technology (CPU's) increasing in effiiciency/power over time. We're actually looking at jumps to new types of technology. I think you need to compare the jump in power/efficiency from CPU/GPU/FPGA/ASIC mining to something more akin to the jump from Horses to Cars to Aircraft...
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VeeMiner
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October 03, 2012, 06:50:14 PM |
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I really hope that BFL can deliver
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dunand
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October 28, 2012, 03:45:46 AM |
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Avalon announced a maximum of 400w for 66Gh/s.
We can narrow the estimate for Avalon to : 2-6 watts/Gh
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jamesg (OP)
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October 28, 2012, 11:43:48 AM |
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Avalon announced a maximum of 400w for 66Gh/s.
We can narrow the estimate for Avalon to : 2-6 watts/Gh
Done.
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creativex
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October 30, 2012, 06:06:04 PM |
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Because BFL is using a 65nm process and Tom is using 130nm? That's a 4x difference in power use right there.
Actually, I'm not sure what Tom is using. Maybe I'm thinking of Avalon. Anyone know for sure? Tom is using 90nm and has further stated that the bASIC 1 will run on a barrel type connector or molex, this means under 110w. https://www.bitcoinasic.net/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=51Given the complexities/risks associated with designing a 45 or even 65nm chip I think a 90nm ASIC was an excellent choice for a product introduction.
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jamesg (OP)
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November 07, 2012, 03:16:22 PM |
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Looks like Tom has posted power estimates after all. https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=4.msg132#msg132We are expecting the 27Gh/s units to use between 50-60 watts and the 54Gh/s units to use between 100-120 watts give or take
this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units
Quoted here for posterity. I have also updated the OP.
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jamesg (OP)
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November 07, 2012, 07:07:51 PM |
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Morblias
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November 07, 2012, 10:01:45 PM |
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Josh said 1st week of December for shipping. Tom also said 1st week for the bASIC. Are people sweating now over their who will ship first bets?
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Tips / Donations accepted: 1Morb18DsDHNEv6TeQXBdba872ZSpiK9fY
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CoinHoarder
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In Cryptocoins I Trust
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November 07, 2012, 10:15:24 PM |
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Josh said 1st week of December for shipping. Tom also said 1st week for the bASIC. Are people sweating now over their who will ship first bets? It seems that they will start shipping so close together that it won't even matter. Except for maybe the people that are very first in line.
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MrTeal
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November 07, 2012, 10:18:03 PM |
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Josh said 1st week of December for shipping. Tom also said 1st week for the bASIC. Are people sweating now over their who will ship first bets? I would guess only the very early BFL customers who were relying on being first. Most bASIC customers went into it expecting to ship after BFL.
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gyverlb
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November 07, 2012, 10:31:48 PM |
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It seems that they will start shipping so close together that it won't even matter. Except for maybe the people that are very first in line.
There's the reliability of the estimation to account for too: - Tom said Nov/Dec from the start and seems still on track. He delivered the modminer quads in a timely manner too from what I can tell.
- BFL originally said October then November and now December and has a past history of optimism.
BFL seems to have far more customers being the first announcing ASICs. So even with more hands to handle the task and an optimistic early start Tom customers as a group might get their ASICs before the BFL customers do and overall see a better ROI. So the luckiest (first delivered) BFL customer might have the best ROI of all but a random customer might be better off with Tom's offer. I hope we'll have a clear picture at the end of December.
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ninjaboon
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November 21, 2012, 05:44:18 AM |
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So guys...If I ordered a BFL Mini Rig SC today, when can I expect it to reach my house (SE Asia) ?
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PuertoLibre
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November 21, 2012, 06:08:25 AM |
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Oh, by the way, the prototype picture has been released. Courtesy of: www.butterflylabs.comRe-posted under the FAIR USE ACT for discussion purposes.It is unknown (as of yet) if this is simply a prototype for the case design or if it is a fully working prototype. If it is the latter, then obviously the burning questions is: Did it meet the power and efficiency ratio of 1Gh per watt? I'll let others ask....
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