Dice game strategy?

[Aemon]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

The tl;dr to his math shows that if you bet 100% at 49.5%, you have a bigger EV than if you do a lot of smaller bets and martingale it.

Not quite, I was quite certain that his math showed the best EV was at 100x using a verified version of martingale or something similar.  Keep in mind this was only to double 1BTC into 2BTC.

He made a pretty clear statement a while back that the more bets you make, the better your chance of failure. So betting at 100x would result in a bigger chance of loss.

Take a look at this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.0;topicseen

In there Doog talks about it and althought the BEST EV was not what you say, it is definitely up there.

[BitMaxz]

I think its randomly to win the bet the  luck will be decide if you will win or not.. but i have my own strategy. like low low low high low low low high low low low high... In that way i have some profit if i do that strategy bet...

[ranlo]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

The tl;dr to his math shows that if you bet 100% at 49.5%, you have a bigger EV than if you do a lot of smaller bets and martingale it.

Not quite, I was quite certain that his math showed the best EV was at 100x using a verified version of martingale or something similar.  Keep in mind this was only to double 1BTC into 2BTC.

He made a pretty clear statement a while back that the more bets you make, the better your chance of failure. So betting at 100x would result in a bigger chance of loss.

Take a look at this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.0;topicseen

In there Doog talks about it and althought the BEST EV was not what you say, it is definitely up there.

Interesting! He had said differently earlier when talking about JD, :p. But maybe the difference is between going from 1 BTC->2 BTC and going from 1 BTC -> Infinity.

[Superhitech]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

Yeah, but dooglus has also stated in one of his posts that you can't win in the long term. In the short term, the house edge is beatable, but in the long term you will lose, as the maths are against you.

I think you are smart enough to know that it is impossible to win in negative EV games!

Not true.  I'm up at SatoshiDice.  All you need is a little luck, and to quit while you're ahead.

It's impossible to stay up if you keep playing forever; eventually the negative expectation will drag you down but in the short term the 1.9% house edge is beatable if you're lucky enough.

[Light]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

Yeah, but dooglus has also stated in one of his posts that you can't win in the long term. In the short term, the house edge is beatable, but in the long term you will lose, as the maths are against you.

Long term is undefinable as it constitutes infinity. You'd expect to approach a loss as you increase the total number of bets made - but he most definitely would not say you 'cannot' win. It's just statistically unlikely - there's always a chance a guy makes 1 million bets and wins all of them or he win 500001 and losses 499999 therefore giving him an overall profit. For an individual - unless you're making like 1 billion bets or something the variance is by far a bigger factor than just the pure -EV alone (unless you skew the -EV by a significant margin).

[ranlo]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

Yeah, but dooglus has also stated in one of his posts that you can't win in the long term. In the short term, the house edge is beatable, but in the long term you will lose, as the maths are against you.

Long term is undefinable as it constitutes infinity. You'd expect to approach a loss as you increase the total number of bets made - but he most definitely would not say you 'cannot' win. It's just statistically unlikely - there's always a chance a guy makes 1 million bets and wins all of them or he win 500001 and losses 499999 therefore giving him an overall profit. For an individual - unless you're making like 1 billion bets or something the variance is by far a bigger factor than just the pure -EV alone (unless you skew the -EV by a significant margin).

This is the whole reason why you won't find a strategy. There is none. If there were, it would have to work long-term. And no betting pattern is even guaranteed to win short-term.

[Erza]

There are many dice game startegies like martingale and all... But uhshould have your own strategy... My basic strategy is to keep changing strategies after every target i set... And believe me or not i won around 0.06 btc without loosing any bet from 0.002 btc deposit

Is that luck or some kind of a pattern? Your good, I congratulate you for that. I hope I am that lucky too.

I dont think this have some kind of pattern. That is just pure luck there and still for every gambling games martingale is still the best to cover your loss unless you are not luck at all and dont have enough balance to cover your losing streak

[Aemon]

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

The tl;dr to his math shows that if you bet 100% at 49.5%, you have a bigger EV than if you do a lot of smaller bets and martingale it.

Not quite, I was quite certain that his math showed the best EV was at 100x using a verified version of martingale or something similar.  Keep in mind this was only to double 1BTC into 2BTC.

He made a pretty clear statement a while back that the more bets you make, the better your chance of failure. So betting at 100x would result in a bigger chance of loss.

Yeah I think you are correct.  The longer you play the more his strategy doesn't work?  I believe anyway I thought I read another one of his posts saying that is the best strategy you can use because it stays stable at that value.  I could be wrong just throwing things out there.
Take a look at this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.0;topicseen

In there Doog talks about it and althought the BEST EV was not what you say, it is definitely up there.

Interesting! He had said differently earlier when talking about JD, :p. But maybe the difference is between going from 1 BTC->2 BTC and going from 1 BTC -> Infinity.

[ajsyndrome]

i think there was a luck too but its must be has some bug math ,or you can calculate it, so you get more win change percentage.
i play with automatic bot and place in 51% and usually get more wins,but sometimes not.

[ranlo]

i think there was a luck too but its must be has some bug math ,or you can calculate it, so you get more win change percentage.
i play with automatic bot and place in 51% and usually get more wins,but sometimes not.

There's only one bug you can take advantage of on some sites, which is rounding errors. Won't go into more details on that but some sites have already fixed it.

[n2004al]

Anyone that found a real long term strategy with low profits to apply? Interested in knowing if someone studied a new method

No. The math itself shows that it's impossible.

nothing impossible, i know there is a good strategy that could work in long term.
we just not yet find it. i personally playing with my bankroll against the "time" and "long term" itself.
so far working well, when i dropped to negative i try to not recover it faster but slowly.

If you guys want to talk strategy look at Dooglus.  I was reading some of the posts he was making.  The guy is just good at math.  He seems to understand what it takes to manipulate the expected value, although it won't be positive it gets it closer to 50%.  Worth reading

You are wondering with open eyes. You see to many movies and those convince you about math strategies in winning in dice or in various other gambling games. There are no any possibility to create strategies or super strategies in dice game. There are no genius which can calculate something. There is not nothing that can be calculate or command the dice. Even if you will have the Deep Blue you will be subject only of the luck. The luck is chaos. The luck is anarchy. The luck is a total of unknown things and impossibility to know even only one of those. There's no order on it. There are not any possibility to calculate or predict it. There can be chances which fit it with your deisres but this is not calculation or prediction. It is only LUCK.

WAKE UP.

[Heutenamos]

There are many dice game startegies like martingale and all... But uhshould have your own strategy... My basic strategy is to keep changing strategies after every target i set... And believe me or not i won around 0.06 btc without loosing any bet from 0.002 btc deposit

Is that luck or some kind of a pattern? Your good, I congratulate you for that. I hope I am that lucky too.

it is just luck, no patterns work..its just that he managed to switch the percentage at the right time ...LUCK.

[kotwica666]

There are many dice game startegies like martingale and all... But uhshould have your own strategy... My basic strategy is to keep changing strategies after every target i set... And believe me or not i won around 0.06 btc without loosing any bet from 0.002 btc deposit

Is that luck or some kind of a pattern? Your good, I congratulate you for that. I hope I am that lucky too.

it is just luck, no patterns work..its just that he managed to switch the percentage at the right time ...LUCK.

Of course it is just luck. In long run always casino win.

The best is do like that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA   (Red or Black? - Betting your whole life on one roulette spin)

and go home!

[leex1528]

There are many dice game startegies like martingale and all... But uhshould have your own strategy... My basic strategy is to keep changing strategies after every target i set... And believe me or not i won around 0.06 btc without loosing any bet from 0.002 btc deposit

Is that luck or some kind of a pattern? Your good, I congratulate you for that. I hope I am that lucky too.

it is just luck, no patterns work..its just that he managed to switch the percentage at the right time ...LUCK.

Of course it is just luck. In long run always casino win.

The best is do like that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA   (Red or Black? - Betting your whole life on one roulette spin)

and go home!

Not quite,  Most of the time casinos win in the long run.  If that was truly the case we wouldn't hear stories of people winning over the long run.  It is highly unlikely that you win over the long run, but not always.

[Small]

A good dice game strategy is martingale if you have unlimited funds, which you don't need to gamble in the first place. unless the casino implemented rng poorly and causing the results to be predictable, there isn't a way to generate guaranteed profit.

[leex1528]

There is no strategy to luck.  There is some strategy when it comes to betting, but even then you are going to have to get lucky in order to beat the house edge.  There are no questions about this anyone that says something different is gamblers fallacy.

[FanEagle]

You can play blindfolded and be lucky at the same time, but pressing a button won't make you rich.

[leex1528]

You can play blindfolded and be lucky at the same time, but pressing a button won't make you rich.

Well to be fair, it can make you rich, it all depends on if you get lucky or not:)  Just like winning the lottery.  You might not like it but its true, you can get rich by gambling if you get lucky, and that is all the attraction to the gambling.

[yanka50]

The best strategy for dice is investing in a dice website, the casino always wins in the end

[Abiky]

I will try gambling at Gambit and devise a strategy that will work for me, with minimal loss and higher profits. I will test everything from Martingale, to auto bets and see if I get lucky.