Diff thread Aug 8 to Aug 22nd picks are closed. Good luck!

[philipma1957]

okay we are 905 blocks in so picks will end in 13-16 hours.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty         (+3.41%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:   54,496,018,890 (+3.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1111 Blocks, About 7.4 days
Hashrate(?):   383,056,957 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.7 minutes
6 blocks: 57.4 minutes
Updated:   

picks as of 7 am friday the 14th  EST

-1.51% to -1.75% TheAnalogKid
-1.26% to -1.50% wlefever
-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%  VirosaGits
-0.51% to -0.75%  alh
-0.26% to -0.50%  ezeminer


+0.01% to +0.25% kenscho
+0.26% to +0.50% lolxxxx
+0.51% to +0.75% edonkey
+0.76% to +1.00% mavericklm 
+1.01% to +1.25%  valkir
+1.26% to +1.50% HerbPean
+1.51% to +1.75% tss
+1.76% to +2.00% Mikestang
+2.01% to +2.25% Amph
+2.26% to +2.50% jonnybravo0311
+2.51% to +2.75% Kexkey
+2.76% to +3.00% EnternalWingsofGod
+3.01% to +3.25% wpt1wpt1
+3.26% to +3.50% notlist3d
+3.51% to +3.75% zebedee

[notlist3d]

At least price is going up a little bit.  Currently around 266 now if we could only get in 270's again.

Hopefully difficulty goes down a tad though.  Would rather have the 1-2 percent.

[ezeminer]

At least price is going up a little bit.  Currently around 266 now if we could only get in 270's again.

Hopefully difficulty goes down a tad though.  Would rather have the 1-2 percent.

for the hashrate and difficulty... it seems too crazy to mine now.

My theory is that the lower the price, the higher the difficulty should be a slightly low difficulty... but then again s7's?

[VirosaGITS]

At least price is going up a little bit.  Currently around 266 now if we could only get in 270's again.

Hopefully difficulty goes down a tad though.  Would rather have the 1-2 percent.

for the hashrate and difficulty... it seems too crazy to mine now.

My theory is that the lower the price, the higher the difficulty should be a slightly low difficulty... but then again s7's?

I don't know, i would still be able to earn some money on S1's if BTC prices remained the same currently but block reward was halved. So i'm not particularly worried with that.

[notlist3d]

With S5+ having a batch we could see a temporary decline when they pull them from their data center I'm guessing and send to buyers.

If someone is good at tracking BTC might see how many units they sold, I know some people have done that before.  At over 7T per unit that could add up depending on how many they have.

[VirosaGITS]

With S5+ having a batch we could see a temporary decline when they pull them from their data center I'm guessing and send to buyers.

If someone is good at tracking BTC might see how many units they sold, I know some people have done that before.  At over 7T per unit that could add up depending on how many they have.

We could come up with a good guess, but its not impossible to get a +or- 10% (guessed) hashrate over a day even if the true hashrate remain the same, just because of "luck".

However seeing a sudden drop everytime Bitmain empty their warehouse with a wave of used Antminer S5 is pretty obvious. So we'll be able to guess a potential and likely range of how many S5+ they dumped/dc'ed, when they do it with S5+'s.

Because i'm pretty sure they will.

[notlist3d]

Slowly going down slightly no huge jumps:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,081,046,359 (+2.62%)
Adjust time:    After 1016 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):    366,431,409 GH/s

Price around 265 so could be better.

[philipma1957]

 the picking is closed
    
picks as of 9 am Sat. the 14th  EST

-1.51% to -1.75% TheAnalogKid
-1.26% to -1.50% wlefever
-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%  VirosaGits
-0.51% to -0.75%  alh
-0.26% to -0.50%  ezeminer


+0.01% to +0.25% kenscho
+0.26% to +0.50% lolxxxx
+0.51% to +0.75% edonkey
+0.76% to +1.00% mavericklm  
+1.01% to +1.25%  valkir
+1.26% to +1.50% HerbPean
+1.51% to +1.75% tss
+1.76% to +2.00% Mikestang
+2.01% to +2.25% Amph
+2.26% to +2.50% jonnybravo0311
+2.51% to +2.75% Kexkey
+2.76% to +3.00% EnternalWingsofGod
+3.01% to +3.25% wpt1wpt1
+3.26% to +3.50% notlist3d
+3.51% to +3.75% zebedee

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


(+1.35%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,408,886,301 (+1.35%)
Adjust time:   After 969 Blocks, About 6.6 days
Hashrate(?):   353,778,915 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes   

[VirosaGITS]

Well then, the final value would appear to hinge on major factors such as Bitmain's cycling their hardware. It almost look like they are timing their moves to purposely keep the difficulty even.

[philipma1957]

Well then, the final value would appear to hinge on major factors such as Bitmain's cycling their hardware. It almost look like they are timing their moves to purposely keep the difficulty even.

yeah they have been many timing moves that match that theory.

have to wait and see how true it is.

[alh]

Late Sunday night update from Minnesota:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,260,668,527 (+1.06%)
Adjust time:    After 747 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):    366,874,505 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
   
Updated:    22:5 (6.3 minutes ago)

BTC price: $257 (down a little)

I think the days of 10% difficulty increases are over. It's a daunting task to add 30PH in a two week period, even with new efficient gear. I think it will be more of slow difficulty increase as mining farm replace (and sell) less efficient gear with more efficient gear. Antpool has no interest in increasing the difficulty.

Just my $.02.

[philipma1957]

@alh


  1000 s-5+ and 2000 s-5 =  10ph
 
  3000 s-5+ and 6000 s-5 =  30ph

 I do not think  they can sell and ship   30ph  in two weeks even if they want to do it.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

And the first four days  for this diff adjustment  pre China explosion.

 


Aug    8  2015   163     +19  but about +10 since part was last diff
Aug    9  2015   133      -11        so -1
Aug  10  2015    168     +24       So  +23
Aug  11  2015    170     +26         means we are + 49


And the 5 days after the China explosion.

Aug 12 2015   122      -22
Aug 13 2015   151      +7
Aug 14 2015   137       -7
Aug 15 2015   136       -8
Aug 16 2015   141       -3                     -33 after the explosion


So A coincidence ?    or did some damage occur.   Not  farms but net or just power restrictions to 1 farm near the blast.

Some will say it was bitmaintech selling off s-5+

For me to figure what they sold I need someone to pm me a btc address they used to pay for  one s-5+

 I can back track to a larger   btc address and try to filter out purchases that are not  a multiple of 9.9 coins.

[VirosaGITS]

@alh


  1000 s-5+ and 2000 s-5 =  10ph
 
  3000 s-5+ and 6000 s-5 =  30ph

 I do not think  they can sell and ship   30ph  in two weeks even if they want to do it.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

And the first four days  for this diff adjustment  pre China explosion.

 


Aug    8  2015   163     +19  but about +10 since part was last diff
Aug    9  2015   133      -11        so -1
Aug  10  2015    168     +24       So  +23
Aug  11  2015    170     +26         means we are + 49


And the 5 days after the China explosion.

Aug 12 2015   122      -22
Aug 13 2015   151      +7
Aug 14 2015   137       -7
Aug 15 2015   136       -8
Aug 16 2015   141       -3                     -33 after the explosion


So A coincidence ?    or did some damage occur.   Not  farms but net or just power restrictions to 1 farm near the blast.

Some will say it was bitmaintech selling off s-5+

For me to figure what they sold I need someone to pm me a btc address they used to pay for  one s-5+

 I can back track to a larger   btc address and try to filter out purchases that are not  a multiple of 9.9 coins.

Maybe this will help you;

S5 purchase;
https://blockexplorer.com/address/14e7bjywenc9Gkmogcxze2xW6fQSFnXAMQ

They move it right after;

https://blockexplorer.com/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

Final Balance 2695BTC.

Quite possibly linked one way or another to all their current sales. Total 31k BTC.

[philipma1957]

from that addy  I think this is the s-5+ tally

26    orders of 1
 8     orders of 2
 3     orders of 3
 1     order of  4
 3     orders of 5
 1     order  of 7
 1     order of 8
 2     orders of 10

[notlist3d]

from that addy  I think this is the s-5+ tally

26    orders of 1
 8     orders of 2
 3     orders of 3
 1     order of  4
 3     orders of 5
 1     order  of 7
 1     order of 8
 2     orders of 10

That would be around 105 machines.  Giving 7.7 TH each around is a little over 800T.    

The thing I wonder is the data center's.   I am guessing they might have their own addy.   I'm not sure how wild data centers will go with price, but as far as footprint they are able to put a lot more S5+ then regular S5 in space.  

Also bitwisdom looks nice:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,057,568,681 (+0.68%)
Adjust time:    After 739 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):    360,906,292 GH/s

Price is around 258.

[mavericklm]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,677,038,886 (-0.04%)

negativeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,677,038,886 (-0.04%)

negativeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Now that is great news!   Only thing is all the S5+'s are in the mail most likely.

So we had a decent amount of machines unplugged and now in mail I would guess.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,677,038,886 (-0.04%)

negativeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Now that is great news!   Only thing is all the S5+'s are in the mail most likely.

So we had a decent amount of machines unplugged and now in mail I would guess.

And they take cash via bank transfers.

So if they unplugged 4.3x the 800th that would be  3.5ph or a full 1%   drop .  I still think those fires/explosions in China affected power to a farm or 2.

We were +4%  that is 14ph drop. 

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,699,842,409
Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,677,038,886 (-0.04%)

negativeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Now that is great news!   Only thing is all the S5+'s are in the mail most likely.

So we had a decent amount of machines unplugged and now in mail I would guess.

And they take cash via bank transfers.

So if they unplugged 4.3x the 800th that would be  3.5ph or a full 1%   drop .  I still think those fires/explosions in China affected power to a farm or 2.

We were +4%  that is 14ph drop. 

Would not surprise me on it effecting  a farm on explosion.  They have shown the crater it created it is crazy amount of damage.   

The question becomes if any were in the warehouse and are gone.   Or if they are just being effected by the electricity being down in some places.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

And the first four days  for this diff adjustment  pre China explosion.

 


Aug    8  2015   163     +19  but about +10 since part was last diff
Aug    9  2015   133      -11        so -1
Aug  10  2015    168     +24       So  +23
Aug  11  2015    170     +26         means we are + 49


And the 6 days after the China explosion.

Aug 12 2015   122      -22
Aug 13 2015   151      +7
Aug 14 2015   137       -7
Aug 15 2015   136       -8
Aug 16 2015   141       -3                     -33 after the explosion
Aug 17 2015   145       +1                     -32 after the explosions

So A coincidence ?    or did some damage occur.   Not  farms but net or just power restrictions to 1 farm near the blast.

Always hard to fully understand dynamics of diff.  Just look at the last 10 days    we had 122 as a low and 170 as a high!  Those are really big swings.

Our real number is +17    blocks


so we made 1413  and 1396 would be 0%   we are really at  +1.21%


Looking at the photos of the fire/explosions  does make you realize BTC centralization is a bad thing. 

 Farms of 20ph or more     mean 20/350 or 5.7% of the network.

Asic builders should take note the 2x 10ph farms are better then 1x 20ph

Well 603 blocks left should be fun.