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Author Topic: Correlating with Search Trends  (Read 3460 times)
nrd525
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June 03, 2011, 01:25:33 AM
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Has anyone tried to correlate bitcoin/usd price with search trends? 

Google has some neat search trends on "Google Insights for Search".

http://www.google.com/insights/search/
(if it lets me post a url)

My guess is that a lot of demand is fueled by fame.  I only found out about bitcoin a week ago via slashdot.


Looking at May 21-24, there was a small lull in Google Search activity for the keyword "bitcoin", but bitcoin price went up all these four days.

It is possible that there is a time lag.


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In order to get the maximum amount of activity points possible, you just need to post once per day on average. Skipping days is OK as long as you maintain the average.
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Bazil
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June 03, 2011, 01:43:19 AM
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Looking at May 21-24, there was a small lull in Google Search activity for the keyword "bitcoin", but bitcoin price went up all these four days.

It is possible that there is a time lag.



Memorial day week end in the US,  half the people interested were out barbecuing instead.

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nrd525
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June 03, 2011, 01:58:55 AM
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May 24 was the day before Memorial Weekend.  May 21-23 was not.

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June 03, 2011, 02:00:38 AM
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May 24 was the day before Memorial Weekend.  May 21-23 was not.

People were thinking about/preparing what they were going to do for the weekend.  Was a really slow work week for me, as I'm sure it was for a lot of people.

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June 05, 2011, 02:03:32 AM
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Let's see if I can post images:


Bitcoin price graph from MtGox.


Google Search Trends for the past 30 days for "bitcoin".

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June 05, 2011, 02:15:11 AM
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Bitcoin prices for the past year (MtGox, US dollars)


Google searches for bitcoin past year.

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nrd525
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June 05, 2011, 02:19:21 AM
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It isn't perfect. But I'm seeing strong correlation.

This correlation would improve if you averaged the google searches over a week (typically google searches drop 20-30% over the weekend), or several days.  There might be a very small delayed effect between searches and conversions into bitcoin buyers (ex 1 day).   Or maybe there might be no delay at all for buying the coins (and a much larger delay for mining - especially on a major scale if you have to buy a gpu).

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