Are we in another bubble?

[Malophor]

Looking at the reports of massive growth in the exchange rate from BTC to USD I am left wondering if we are in the middle of another bubble. It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out. What do you think? Is it likely that we will crash to under $5 in the next year?

[Kupsi]

I don't believe it's a bubble. I think it's healthy growth.

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

[kokojie]

It's just inflation rate after halving will be greatly slowed, so there's not much price pressure. Any small growth in the bitcoin economy will cause price to go up.
People are speculating that price next year will be greatly more than the current price, so they are not selling. Right now I don't think we are in a bubble yet,
not until price go back to $30

[Technomage]

We may be at the start of a bubble but I think it's very unlikely that we're in a bubble now.

[BTConomist]

We may be at the start of a bubble but I think it's very unlikely that we're in a bubble now.

It's time to have me some HONEY.
Let's call this one the OCTOBER FEAST.
There's enough honey for everyone!
Don't forget to bring a big spoon.

[Stephen Gornick]

It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.

There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).

Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?

[Ascholten]

Well some folks mine to sell them,  if they get a bunch more because of a faster rig, they might drop their prices, especially if they are looking to pay off that new rig fairly quick and then profit later.

Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example.  I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.

There is a possibility that the price will drop.

Aaron

[FreeMoney]

Well some folks mine to sell them,  if they get a bunch more because of a faster rig, they might drop their prices, especially if they are looking to pay off that new rig fairly quick and then profit later.

Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example.  I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.

There is a possibility that the price will drop.

Aaron

They can't get a bunch more except for a few days or maybe weeks because as they get better at finding blocks blocks get harder to find.

[adamstgBit]

It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.

There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).

Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?

it wont. not really

what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.

how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!

supply with literally double over night.

The Plunge! its coming... are you ready  

[ElectricMucus]

I think that the vast majority of all bitcoins, like 90+ percent have been held for hoarding.

However I don't think that has nessecary a big impact on the price. At least not short/mid term. How do they say?
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid.



On the topic: No we are not in a bubble.
This is either a bubble echo or not a bubble at all. In which case we would remain over the previous ATH for a very long time, possible forever. The thing however is you cannot say for certain if it is one (a bubble echo) or not till it is too late (prices get over previous ATH and stay there or never reach it)

[cheat_2_win]

It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.

There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).

Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?

it wont. not really

what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.

how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!

supply with literally double over night.

The Plunge! its coming... are you ready  

I also agree that we will see a massive Bitcoin dump. But when? That is anybody's guess. It might happen now or it might happen once the price shoots through the roof. And one more thing, if the dump happens later, then the price after the dump might still be higher than current prices. So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.

[adamstgBit]

It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.

There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).

Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?

it wont. not really

what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.

how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!

supply with literally double over night.

The Plunge! its coming... are you ready  

I also agree that we will see a massive Bitcoin dump. But when? That is anybody's guess. It might happen now or it might happen once the price shoots through the roof. And one more thing, if the dump happens later, then the price after the dump might still be higher than current prices. So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.

i am speculating... i still have more then half of my coins.

[Spekulatius]

So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.

I'm on it..

[Malophor]

So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.

I'm on it..

That made me legitimately LOL.

[Malophor]

It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.

There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).

Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?

The exchange rate is a function of supply and demand. The rate of minting new BTC is about to be cut in half but this is not the full story for supply. People still have to be willing to sell. So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me. Some short term volatility is probably in the works regarding the exchange rate as a result. After all, there will be new competition coming to the table with shiny new ASICs and some of the existing video card miners will be dropping out.

[Stephen Gornick]

So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.

Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?

[Ascholten]

Once they halve, any gain made by the faster cards, I see pretty much going away due to the reduced value of coins .vs. electricity costs to actually mine them.  This will probably have an overall affect of balancing them to about where we are now.   ie  I can mine twice as much, but am only getting half what I used to each time.  If the new cards (which are only rumor and NOBODY has any REAL performance specs yet) don't perform like they are claimed to, well we won't see a big shift.  if they destroy totally whats out there now,  in a few months the difficulty shoots way way up and it's stabilized out again.

Just remember,  your bitcoins are worth exactly what someone else is willing to pay for them.

Aaron

[Malophor]

So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.

Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?

This will be my first venture into mining and I plan to sell everything I mine until my initial investment is paid off. More supply without shifts in demand will mean lower. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking that way.

[Yuhfhrh]

We are entering the bubble. It's gonna be fun 

[firefop]

So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.

Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?

This will be my first venture into mining and I plan to sell everything I mine until my initial investment is paid off. More supply without shifts in demand will mean lower. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking that way.

That's the perspective of the small-time miner, recoup costs quickly so he can grow his operation... those of us who are more established - will likely hoard more coin. I sell between 18% and 22% of my mined coins just to pay ongoing costs (inet+electric) another ~20% goes back into buying new hardware so my income doesn't decrease. That leaves about 60% that I'll hold.

Of course if I see massive price swings in btc/usd then I'm just as likely to pay my monthly costs with fiat and hoard even more coin --- with the intention to sell it slowly once the price calms down.