here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[cedivad]

Yep, you are all screwed. Everyone cancel your orders so I can make a lot of money.

Thanks  

I had orders for 0.2TH placed with everyone but BFL and i will not pay them.

I belive in what i wrote and i don't want to scare you so that i make money, i will buy BTC directly and maybe get into the ASIC business at a later time.

[Unacceptable]

I made my calculations up to 250 TH & will still be profitable at that difficulty 

Just multiply 131,384 for every TH & see what you think.

If & when it gets near that 250 TH mark,I'll get more rigs to even out the income,maybe even way before   

[Raize]

If the difficulty goes up, and the price doesn't immediately follow, the supply will eventually be purchased up by Silk Road addicts. Silk Road users don't care if they pay $100 for 10 BTC or $100 for .1 BTC, just as long as they get ~$100 worth of their "stuff". That said, after the supply of coin dries up and the price skyrockets, if the ROI for Bitcoin mining hits ~30days like it did in June 2011, you're definitely going to see people selling to make back their money. The only problem for the ASIC miners is going to be they have all their funds wrapped up in miners and not actual BTC, so they'll have no way to hedge their losses when the price does fall and they are looking at either unprofitability (European miners with $0.20/kWh) or multi-year ROI.

On the other hand, if you remember, after GPU miners came out, we actually saw a shortage of GPUs and a spike in the prices of them, so many of these miners may still be able to resell their miners for coin directly. On the other hand, these are only the first runs of what are likely to be many ASIC runs, with increased interest and purchases, the manufacturers will be able to make more and more efficient units for cheaper and cheaper.

My guess is that the next bubble will have a geo-political impact. I do believe it will still be considered an irrational bubble, though. The growth that I talked about in this post of December 2011 seems to have come to an end. Market irrationality is back and back in full force:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53949.0

My advice now is, get ready for "unstable growth".

[SgtSpike]

To add to the wrong things...:

The Jalepeno now puts out 4.5GH/s.
The Single now puts out 60GH/s.
MR = 1500GH/s.

Now, if we get a 10x difficulty increase after the preorders are filled (which I think is quite likely), and if someone was to order a Single after said difficulty increase, and if that happened after the 25 reward drop, and if the price didn't move, then:

$253.67 / 10 / 2 = the single would make $12.68/day.  That's still a return on investment of 103 days (interestingly, almost exactly what the ROI was when I purchased my first-gen Singles).

So, I'll reiterate it this way:

• Current ASIC pre-orderers are most certainly not screwed.  Every one of them will make their money back and more.  And I'll take someone up on a betsofbitco.in regarding that to put my money where my mouth is.
• It is likely that the ROI will remain reasonable (under 12 months) for the forseeable future, unless the BTC price drops significantly.  The reason for this is that we will quickly reach a point where the

Desolator, why do you keep making these anti-ASIC threads anyway?  It seems you are jealous of everyone who actually can order an ASIC, and have made it your goal to prevent more orders and/or make current pre-order holders feel bad.  It doesn't make much sense to me, and frankly, your repetition of falsities in these threads are getting a bit stale.

[Desolator]

That is absolutely absurd.  I'm just shocked at all the unbelievably stupid people who keep touting their "wow, it will pay off in 2 weeks!  I'm gonna be rich!" crap.  I thought people in the bitcoin community would be cautious and smart.  The rate is 50 (well 25) BTC per block and everyone has to share that.  So for like 50% of all miners switching to ASICs and all claim they're going to get rich off those amazing speed numbers, someone has to let them know that they're dreaming and remind them how the bitcoin protocol works.  The only people making money are the mega-sketchy jerks over at Butterfly Labs, which is run by a scam-participant asshole.  WTF is wrong with everyone?!  It really makes bitcoin look bad and makes people want to leave it behind when some get rich quick scheme doesn't work out as well as they hoped.  I guess a slap in the face with some cold, hard reality it better now than later.

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins either at the moment, as they were convereted to USD at an opportune time so that kinda kills your basis for the accusation now doesn't it?

Btw WTF is $253.67 / 10 / 2?  That's not the most direct way to calculate it, or accurate.  Here, let's short version it instead.  378TH/s anticipated network speed.  Wait, let's go with your number! 10x 22.5TH/s = 225TH/s.  Your Jalapeno will be 0.002% of the block solving so 0.0005BTC every 10 minutes @ 25 per block.  That's 0.072BTC/day.  At $12.80 that's $0.9216 per day.  That's 161 days but A LOT more when you add in shipping and electricity.  Still not so great.  With my more realistic numbers, that's closer to 258 days + shipping and electricity.  Oh that's right, during that 258 days, more people will be buying ohhhhhhhhhh just a couple more ASICs so it's going to be 2 years if you're lucky before that pays for itself.  Welcome back to the former GPU payoff period Kinda my point.

[SgtSpike]

That is absolutely absurd.  I'm just shocked at all the unbelievably stupid people who keep touting their "wow, it will pay off in 2 weeks!  I'm gonna be rich!" crap.  I thought people in the bitcoin community would be cautious and smart.  The rate is 50 (well 25) BTC per block and everyone has to share that.  So for like 50% of all miners switching to ASICs and all claim they're going to get rich off those amazing speed numbers, someone has to let them know that they're dreaming and remind them how the bitcoin protocol works.  The only people making money are the mega-sketchy jerks over at Butterfly Labs, which is run by a scam-participant asshole.  WTF is wrong with everyone?!  It really makes bitcoin look bad and makes people want to leave it behind when some get rich quick scheme doesn't work out as well as they hoped.  I guess a slap in the face with some cold, hard reality it better now than later.

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins either at the moment, as they were convereted to USD at an opportune time so that kinda kills your basis for the accusation now doesn't it?

Btw WTF is $253.67 / 10 / 2?  That's not the most direct way to calculate it, or accurate.  Here, let's short version it instead.  378TH/s anticipated network speed.  Wait, let's go with your number! 10x 22.5TH/s = 225TH/s.  Your Jalapeno will be 0.002% of the block solving so 0.0005BTC every 10 minutes @ 25 per block.  That's 0.072BTC/day.  At $12.80 that's $0.9216 per day.  That's 161 days but A LOT more when you add in shipping and electricity.  Still not so great.  With my more realistic numbers, that's closer to 258 days + shipping and electricity.  Welcome back to the former GPU payoff period Kinda my point.

When you resort to personal insults, it only makes one person look stupid.  I'll let you figure out who that is.

How about you try reading my post next time.

$253.67 / 10 / 2 = the single would make $12.68/day.

I'm talking singles, not Jalepeno's.

$253.67 is the amount that a 60gh/s single would make at today's price/difficulty rate
/ 10 accounts for the difficulty increase
/ 2 accounts for the block reward drop

Also, for your sake, I'll add in electricity and shipping to my calculations.

Shipping is $34 (?).  That's 3 more days.  106 days in total now.

Electricity is 60w x 24hrs x 106days / 1000kwh/w x $0.08/kwh = $12.21 in electricity.

107 days now.

So, we've added 4 days because of shipping and electricity costs.

I'll quote you again now.

A LOT more when you add in shipping and electricity

No, not so much.

[crazyates]

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins either at the moment, as they were convereted to USD at an opportune time...

Wait, let me get this straight:

-You have no Bitcoins.
-You do not mine Bitcoins.
-You do not plan on mining, unless you can get an ASIC before everyone else. And even if you did...
-Your only purpose of mining Bitcoins is to sell them for USD.
-Then to top it all off, you start calling all of us "Stupid" for choosing purchase mining equipment.

So answer me this: why the FUCK are you trolling this Bitcoin forum? Some of us actually mine for the 1BTC, not the USD it can be traded for. Can you give some sort of response, defending yourself? If so, I'll take it back. Otherwise, your posts are worth absolutely nothing.

[Transisto]

That is absolutely absurd.  I'm just shocked at all the unbelievably stupid people... I'm gonna be rich!" crap.  ... the mega-sketchy jerks over at Butterfly Labs, which is run by a scam-participant asshole.  WTF is wrong with everyone?!  ... a slap in the face...

...Btw WTF is $253.67 / 10 / 2?  ...

When you resort to personal insults, it only makes one person look stupid.  I'll let you figure out who that is.

How about you try reading my post next time.

$253.67 / 10 / 2 = the single would make $12.68/day.

I'm talking singles, not Jalepeno's.

$253.67 is the amount that a 60gh/s single would make at today's price/difficulty rate
/ 10 accounts for the difficulty increase
/ 2 accounts for the block reward drop

Also, for your sake, I'll add in electricity and shipping to my calculations.

Shipping is $34 (?).  That's 3 more days.  106 days in total now.

Electricity is 60w x 24hrs x 106days / 1000kwh/w x $0.08/kwh = $12.21 in electricity.

107 days now.

So, we've added 4 days because of shipping and electricity costs.

I'll quote you again now.

A LOT more when you add in shipping and electricity

No, not so much.

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins either at the moment, as they were convereted to USD at an opportune time...

...
So answer me this: why the FUCK are you trolling this Bitcoin forum? ...Can you give some sort of response, defending yourself? If so, I'll take it back. Otherwise, your posts are worth absolutely nothing.

The ignore button,,,  That's what it's for !

Ps: I don't mind not paying my hardware back, It's only to protect the network.

[SgtSpike]

Hey ASIC pre-order people, you're screwed

That's nothing compared with Bitcoin as a project becoming screwed, as a result of moving in wrong direction. Instead of workload becoming
distributed to as many entities as possible (1 billion+ ORDINARY computers using CPU grinding, if nothing else), it will become distributed to (much)
less entities than now (5k+ EXTRAORDINARY setups). First you put CPU only miners out of game, now you'll put GPU miners out of game as well.
Great job, let's ignore total processing power of all ordinary computers on the planet and the fact few billions are harder to compromise than few!
Let's put NECCESSARY work of solving blocks into hands of less and less people, so those who this project is ment to fight against have easier job.

Now you can continue with ordinary irrelevant debate.

See, I'd argue that if 5,000 individuals are mining, it is just as effective as 5 million (given the same hashing power in both cases).  Both are very decentralized, to the point that it would be impossible to compromise the network by compromising individuals.

On top of that, botnets will be made completely unviable/unprofitable.  Not only does that mean less malicious usage of other people's computers, it also means malicious entities cannot gain control of a significant part of the Bitcoin network via botnets.  I see this as a very good thing.

The ignore button,,,  That's what it's for !

Ps: I don't mind not paying my hardware back, It's only to protect the network.

I prefer to showcase arrogant people's shortcomings instead.

[tvbcof]

...

I have no GPU miners at the moment, no ASIC pre-orders, and no interest in an ASIC pre-order if I'm not guaranteed to get it earlier than most people, and actually I have almost no bitcoins eith...

Ah, so you are an FPGA guy then   I do hope that at least some ASIC vendors turn out to be legit and their shit works because there really are some cool FPGA gadgets that I would like to have (for things other than mining Bitcoin) and the aforementioned eventuality could depress the price of them.  We'll see.

[CoinHoarder]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt....

There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC.

There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment.

[DoomDumas]

Again : It all depend a what price you'll buy fiat with your BTC..  If buying fiat is your goal.  Someone may want to exchange BTC for a wikispeed car or another product or service.. It all depend on when, and what for BTC are being exchanged.

Let suppose, someone invest reasonable amount of Fiat or BTC, ammount that this person can afford to lose.  Even if BTC fails, no worry, it was not retiree money, or a loan that must be paid back.. Like any investment, no one should risk value that can be lost overnight.

So, I've invested mush less than I can afford to lose, and if things get real.. I'll invest much more, always in a total value that I can afford to lose over-night..

Calling to everyone : "You'll get screwed" is, in my humble opinion, immature and shows a lack of tought !

- sorry for bad english !

[alexanderanon]

The mining factor has been constant at 4-5 months ROI ($0.45/100mh/s) for over a year now, and this isn't going to change with ASIC arrivals. This consistency reflects a general risk/reward ratio that exists within the market, such that anticipations of price increases offsets mining purchases. As we can all see over the past few months, anyone who sold bitcoins to buy pre-orders missed out on a more than doubling of usd/btc. The mining factor will fall to 1/37.5 it is now, as this is the FPGA:ASIC mh/s efficiency, but when factoring in this increased efficiency, will equate back to 1 (37.5*(1/37.5)).

[IMakeComps]

I see you have all fallen for the official bitcointalk forum troll....

[cedivad]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt....

There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC.

There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment.

Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders?

[SgtSpike]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt....

There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC.

There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment.

Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders?

No - it is pure speculation.

[crazyates]

I want to share the fast calculations i did a few days ago.

1) let's suppose to be around 10M$ in ASIC preorder
2) the $/GH is 21.6 ($/GH) (1300$ for 60GH)
3) so there will be around 460TH of hashing power *added* when the preorders delivery (10M$/21.6$/GH)
4) as of now a 1GH/s miner does around 0.3512 BTC/daily with a total network power of 21TH
5) let's halve that amount since that we will soon go from 50 to 25BTC per block, that's is 0.1756 BTC/day
6) the hashing power will go up around 20 times, that means that your profit per day per 1GH/s will go down of around 20 times, that's is 0.00878 BTC/GH/day
7) now let's suppose to have around 60GH/s of hashing power, that's 60 * 0.00878, 0.5BTC/day @50-100W
8 ) you need 120BTC to payback your 60GH/s mining hardware, that's 240 days, not taking into account the power usage.
9) after 120 days the asic market will be completely different, with people buying 1TH for 1000$

Yes, you are all screwed.

You just pulled that 10m$ pre order out of your butt....

There is no way that there are that many pre orders for ASIC.

There are just not that many people in the community to invest that kind of money in mining equipment.

Wasn't that an almost accepted data of how much BFL got on pre orders?

No - it is pure speculation.

I believe when BFL opened up their pre-orders on 6/23, Bit-pay set a new record for amount processed, and I think it was somewhere just over 1million USD in a 24 hour period. Considering that the waitlist only shows the first day going up by about 500 orders or so, and we're coming up on 9000 order numbers, it's quite possible to be around 10 million in sales.

[crazyates]

@all, please note the differences in replies among who has and don't a BFL advertising in their signature.

(Last 2 posts)

Me and SgtSpike both have BFL links in our sigs, but we're disagreeing on how much has been spent on pre-orders. I don't quite understand what point you'er trying to make, but it is 2am, and I am overdue for some sleep. Please care to explain?

[puck2]

^risk ... ^reward

don't spend your life savings on any of this...

[cedivad]

@all, please note the differences in replies among who has and don't a BFL advertising in their signature.

(Last 2 posts)

Me and SgtSpike both have BFL links in our sigs, but we're disagreeing on how much has been spent on pre-orders. I don't quite understand what point you'er trying to make, but it is 2am, and I am overdue for some sleep. Please care to explain?

I was wrong and I removed the post before you did yours.
For the third time in the thread.
I'm gonna retire from posting for a while.