here's just how screwed ASIC buyers are - READ THIS if you have a preorder

[creativex]

Hmm...my understanding was that BFL's overly complicated 1/3 shipment plan was only centered around pre-orders placed within the first month or so in addition to upgrade units. I'd surely not be a happy camper if I'd sent them funds in the spring and someone who ordered in Sept got a unit ahead of me.

Are you fucking retarded?  If I had one, I'd have sold it by now.  but I was smart enough to not get one in the first place, given BFL's past history with wrong specs and late releases.  Sounds like you're just mad that you're so utterly screwed.

By the way, there's so much wrong with Scythe's estimate that it's beyond all correcting.  He's off by a factor of 2-3x.

I generally agree with you doggie, but I think you're off on this one. I don't see all that much downside to pre-ordering and there's potential to get a decent ROI in the short term.

[hardcore-fs]

There's a difference between claiming to use artificial testing methods and actually doing it.  Like someone said, they can mine on the main network and blame it on others.

There are thousands of eyes watching them, and employees working for them, if there is a breach in this policy, even the suspicion of violating their direct statements to us, and you know the size of fecal hurricane that will hit them. It will not require proof, only suspicion, I've been on this board long enough to see that!

Wow no angry masturbation allowed....... you are not the only person in the world who is allowed to express an opinion.

[nibor]

I think it will be much higher difficulty jump than some people think.

Biggest difference over GPU/FPGA is the low electricity consumption.

60 ghash/sec for 60 watts is crazy. This means that when block halves to 25BTC assuming electricity costs of 0.15USD per kwatt/hour this means a theoretical Max hash rate of 11,000 terahashes/sec!
(25*6*24*365=1.3m BTC per year = 15m USD per year).
11,000 kilowatts would cost you 0.15*11,000*24*365=15million USD per year.
And you can get 11,000 terahash/sec with 11,000 kilowatts!
This is a difficulty of about 1,700,000,000

Assuming that people keep buying ASICS till the payback is more than one year.
In this case the electricity cost is insignificant so we can just do the following:
60 Ghash costs $1300
1 Ghash costs $22
So just divide the total revenue for year by 22 -> 15m/22=717,000
This is 717 terrahashes or a difficulty of 102,000,000 - a 30 fold increase!

So my prediction is difficulty will increase as fast a ASICS ship to 102,000,000 and will then slowly increase to 400,000,000. This increase could be MUCH faster if there is a price war between ASIC providers.
But will never get above 1,700,000,000 until there is a "New" technology.


And this assume a constant exchange rate! As rate goes up so do all the numbers.

[scrybe]

There's a difference between claiming to use artificial testing methods and actually doing it.  Like someone said, they can mine on the main network and blame it on others.

There are thousands of eyes watching them, and employees working for them, if there is a breach in this policy, even the suspicion of violating their direct statements to us, and you know the size of fecal hurricane that will hit them. It will not require proof, only suspicion, I've been on this board long enough to see that!

Wow no angry masturbation allowed....... you are not the only person in the world who is allowed to express an opinion.

Nope, but I'm not going to let others use my words to call people retards, that is unacceptable. If you think I was angry at this post, please reread it and the one after it. The one that made me angry came later.

I do expect the opportunity for dialog on a forum, and if Des does not want to talk to me or address my many real points, then that is fine. I have tried repeatedly to engage in an honest, non-insulting, considered evaluation of the situation, but all I gets is "you're wrong?"

Puh-Lease.

[hardcore-fs]

OP there is a low probability that the price will stay at or below $12.80 for very long. If the price goes up the time it takes to pay off the cost of BFL hardware will go down.

What is there to drive the price up? At the moment it feels like we have been fluctuating at ~ 11.6usd/btc for awhile now...

You forget that there is 1.5 Quadrillion Dollars floating around the planet in different forms.

Not much needs to go into bitcoin to push the price up to $15, $20, $50, $100.

DO the math.

What will push it up , is the Chinese.
They are absolutely shit scared the Government will take the money off them, consider the tax rate at 35% for anything over the income of a tramp.
They believe it is better to put all the money into the stock market or real-estate, because even if it crashes, then you end-up with exactly the same as if you gave 35% to the government.

However since the RMB is HIGHLY controlled and difficult to get out of the country, there is a very strong black market for bit-coin currency in China, potentially billions of $ as the government slowly gets on top of paypal and other more 'traceable' money transfer systems.
Bit coin allows you to buy bit-coins locally, carry a flash over the boarder and then re-cashout the money.

[banzsolt]

I made a small speculation, the only thing what I dont know the difficulty thing, is the difficulty depedning by the total hash power? (this is how I get it and  calculated a bit)

So let's say after the ASIC's come out there will be a huge overhashing power in the network.
I estimated this at 50X so 50X ~28Thash/s (the total hash power at the moment) = 1,400 Thash/s =>

difficulty from 3, 000, 000 will be 50X this number so 150, 000, 000
so to jump to this difficulty we will need 1, 400- 28 = 1, 372 Thash power in the first day.
After this I devided this number in 60 Ghas so 1, 372, 000 / 60 ~ 22, 800 orders of a 60 Ghash/sec ASIC
like I saw there are just ~ 13, 000 orders so ~ 10 000 really offers that number is still the half of what I'm waiting for.

After this I putted this numbers in the TP calculator and got that at a 50X bigger difficulty time than now I can get my money back in 4 month. That's not bad if we think about that the difficulty will be rising exponentially and not linear (like I think because the curretn difficult rate will be much ower the power of the new Total hash power), so I can get the invested money still faster than Im waiting for.

So to sum up to get back the in 4 month the inveted money the avvarage of the tottal difficulty of the 4 month's difficulty should't be higher than 150, 000, 000.

Am I right? I would thank you very much if someone could correct me if I made somewhere a mistake, I couldn't mine ever, and now thinking to try it out, and wanting to buy a Little SC. What you think about this? 

[bcpokey]

I made a small speculation, the only thing what I dont know the difficulty thing, is the difficulty depedning by the total hash power? (this is how I get it and  calculated a bit)

So let's say after the ASIC's come out there will be a huge overhashing power in the network.
I estimated this at 50X so 50X ~28Thash/s (the total hash power at the moment) = 1,400 Thash/s =>

difficulty from 3, 000, 000 will be 50X this number so 150, 000, 000
so to jump to this difficulty we will need 1, 400- 28 = 1, 372 Thash power in the first day.
After this I devided this number in 60 Ghas so 1, 372, 000 / 60 ~ 22, 800 orders of a 60 Ghash/sec ASIC
like I saw there are just ~ 13, 000 orders so ~ 10 000 really offers that number is still the half of what I'm waiting for.

After this I putted this numbers in the TP calculator and got that at a 50X bigger difficulty time than now I can get my money back in 4 month. That's not bad if we think about that the difficulty will be rising exponentially and not linear (like I think because the curretn difficult rate will be much ower the power of the new Total hash power), so I can get the invested money still faster than Im waiting for.

So to sum up to get back the in 4 month the inveted money the avvarage of the tottal difficulty of the 4 month's difficulty should't be higher than 150, 000, 000.

Am I right? I would thank you very much if someone could correct me if I made somewhere a mistake, I couldn't mine ever, and now thinking to try it out, and wanting to buy a Little SC. What you think about this?  

Reading this made my head hurt, but I'm sure your heart is in the right place.

I'm not really following your calculations, so I'll just jump to the end, 50x the current difficult is 165,217,800; we can round that to 150,000,000 for you. ASICs will not be released until after the coin halving, by everyones estimate, so each block yields 25 coins for our calculation. 60GHash/sec mining on 150,000,000 difficulty will generate 1 block roughly every 5 months or so, yielding 25 bitcoins. If in 5 months 25 bitcoins are worth $11 each, that is $275, or roughly 1/5ths of the cost of a Single SC. So you would be able to repay your Single SC in approximately 25 months (2 years 1 month) at that difficulty.

Hope that helped, even if it was rough calculation.

[puck2]

Bit coin allows you to buy bit-coins locally, carry a flash over the boarder and then re-cashout the money.

... or store online in wallet or .dat backup

[flynn]

I estimated this at 50X so 50X ~28Thash/s (the total hash power at the moment) = 1,400 Thash/s =>

50 * 1.4 = 70 , not 28.

[Blackasaurus]

Imagine how screwed people with GPUs are.
Considering this (GPUs, and things near their speed) are the only alternative, if you want to keep mining youll have to switch to ASICs.

[Frequency]

Imagine how screwed people with GPUs are.
Considering this (GPUs, and things near their speed) are the only alternative, if you want to keep mining youll have to switch to ASICs.

@the moment the onlyones making the BTC thus money are the GPU rigs fpga,s ect.
@the moment the ASIC doing 0 BTC

in 4 weeks 80% precent of easy BTC are mined after halvingday de marketprice will decide if people keep there gpu,s on the net.. the time between this and the ASIC shipments the diff could go down..good for the gpu owners doing 10gh+ and already payed off there complete rigs ...when IF ASIC get shiped in 2013 we will see what happens but the next few moonths will be very very intresting...GPU en fpga rigs are still no1 as we speak...

[ARapalo]

Haven't been following for the past few months. So these ASICs are still happening? I was under the assumption this whole thing was a huge scam. This thread pretty much confirms that they'll happen, but basically since everyone will have one, then no one will profit.

[deeplink]

This thread pretty much confirms that they'll happen, but basically since everyone will have one, then no one will profit.

Bingo! Unless of course you keep discussing it, do lots of calculations and bash everyone who points out you are wrong.

[The_Duke]

So these ASICs are still happening?

No.
 

I was under the assumption this whole thing was a huge scam.

You were right.

This thread pretty much confirms that they'll happen,

No it doesn't.

but basically since everyone will have one,

No they won't.

then no one will profit.

Correct.

[hardcore-fs]

So these ASICs are still happening?

No.
 

I was under the assumption this whole thing was a huge scam.

You were right.

This thread pretty much confirms that they'll happen,

No it doesn't.

but basically since everyone will have one,

No they won't.

then no one will profit.

Correct.

About the only correct point was the last one... other than that your statement shows a fucking tragic lack of REAL research...........
An example:
http://www.cast-inc.com/ip-cores/encryption/sha-256/cast_sha256.pdf

ANOTHER example:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.106.5391&rep=rep1&type=pdf

[strideynet]

Tis post is awesome.
Everyone cancel your ore orders now.
I can be the only ASIC buyer. I will den be rich .
ASIC buyers ain't screwed. Gpu users who think ASIC is screwed up are in trouble. If ur rig can't reach 4 ghash your below the cheapest and slowest ASIC.

[deeplink]

Gpu users who think ASIC is screwed up are in trouble.

How are they in trouble? Most GPU miners have mined more Bitcoin than the average ASIC miner ever will.

[bobitza]

Gpu users who think ASIC is screwed up are in trouble.

How are they in trouble? Most GPU miners have mined more Bitcoin than the average ASIC miner ever will.

You're not comparing apples with apples here.

[deeplink]

Gpu users who think ASIC is screwed up are in trouble.

How are they in trouble? Most GPU miners have mined more Bitcoin than the average ASIC miner ever will.

You're not comparing apples with apples here.

Maybe you don't understand the comparison then. I am just wondering why or how a GPU miner who thinks that "ASIC is screwed" is in trouble. As I said, most GPU miners have already mined (lots of) Bitcoins. ASIC miners have not. GPU miners were the real early adopters and ASIC miners are the wanna-be early adopters (caveat: an overlap will exist). On average total earnings of an ASIC miner will never exceed that of a GPU miner.

It's like a poor guy with a lottery ticket for a million dollar jackpot saying to a rich guy, that he is screwed because he has less money than the poor guy might win.

[creativex]

I'm sure the vast majority of ASIC pre-orders originated from former/current GPU & FPGA miners, they're not exactly backing into this with blinders on.

Anyway, if BTCFPGA ships on schedule and BFL delays shipping one more time, those early bASIC pre-orders will pay out months of GPU mining worth of BTC in days before difficulty increases much. Certainly not everyone is screwed equally.