[Guide] Surviving the fork, or How to double your bitcoins (or save fiat)

[keepdoing]

Assuming I have Bitcoin in Circle and Coinbase (which are basically the big fiat replacement exchanges) and assuming they will adopt XT the second it is clear the move is going to be made (And they will because I have talked to both companies in depth and they fully support XT) - wouldn't it be safest and easiest to just leave my bitcoins in their respective Coinbase and Circle accounts?

And this is assuming a succesful XT fork where you assume XT "wins".  Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

[mrkubanftw]

It won't work.

If XT is adopted, XT wins, there's no other chain, or at least there's no other chain with value.

You may find someone that lived in a cave for the past year and scam them using the abandoned chain, but that's not something you'll want to brag about, I think...

Honestly. I dont mean to turn this into a debate. But why wouldn't XT win? I read our volumes are only 30-40% of block size now.. but there is a real risk of hitting a limit if bitcoin continues to be adopted, which it will. I see no reason why XT wouldn't win. Though I am certainly disappointed at the dev's of both sides. Bitcoin has always been an amazing concept with the overshadow of greed and shady business. I wish it were not so.

[pedrog]

It won't work.

If XT is adopted, XT wins, there's no other chain, or at least there's no other chain with value.

You may find someone that lived in a cave for the past year and scam them using the abandoned chain, but that's not something you'll want to brag about, I think...

Honestly. I dont mean to turn this into a debate. But why wouldn't XT win? I read our volumes are only 30-40% of block size now.. but there is a real risk of hitting a limit if bitcoin continues to be adopted, which it will. I see no reason why XT wouldn't win. Though I am certainly disappointed at the dev's of both sides. Bitcoin has always been an amazing concept with the overshadow of greed and shady business. I wish it were not so.

It may not be adopted by enough people, BIP 101 may be implemented in Core, some other proposal may be implemented in Core, or some other thing I can't think right now...

[Come-from-Beyond]

Assuming I have Bitcoin in Circle and Coinbase (which are basically the big fiat replacement exchanges) and assuming they will adopt XT the second it is clear the move is going to be made (And they will because I have talked to both companies in depth and they fully support XT) - wouldn't it be safest and easiest to just leave my bitcoins in their respective Coinbase and Circle accounts?

And this is assuming a succesful XT fork where you assume XT "wins".  Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

You will be unable to double your coins and earn money by selling non-XT coins.

[keepdoing]

Assuming I have Bitcoin in Circle and Coinbase (which are basically the big fiat replacement exchanges) and assuming they will adopt XT the second it is clear the move is going to be made (And they will because I have talked to both companies in depth and they fully support XT) - wouldn't it be safest and easiest to just leave my bitcoins in their respective Coinbase and Circle accounts?

And this is assuming a succesful XT fork where you assume XT "wins".  Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

You will be unable to double your coins and earn money by selling non-XT coins.

OK.... but isn't your entire premise based on the fact that non-XT coins (Core Coins) will somehow be so widely demanded based on the fact that non-XT will ultimately become a new sort of underground Alt-Coin in effect?  I mean - MY PREMISE is based on XT wins.

So maybe I am not understanding - but is this the underlying principle of your position?  That non-XT Bitcoin will be a highly demanded "underground" alternative version to the XT Bitcoin (which is what the masses, and financial institutions will use - because it won?)   And I am not trashing your principle - but it is more of a gambling strategy than an investment /wealth protection strategy.

[Holliday]

Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

Yes. If you aren't the sole controller of your private keys, you don't have any bitcoins. You have IOUs issued by whatever exchange you are using.

[Come-from-Beyond]

OK.... but isn't your entire premise based on the fact that non-XT coins (Core Coins) will somehow be so widely demanded based on the fact that non-XT will ultimately become a new sort of underground Alt-Coin in effect?  I mean - MY PREMISE is based on XT wins.

So maybe I am not understanding - but is this the underlying principle of your position?  That non-XT Bitcoin will be a highly demanded "underground" alternative version to the XT Bitcoin (which is what the masses, and financial institutions will use - because it won?)   And I am not trashing your principle - but it is more of a gambling strategy than an investment /wealth protection strategy.

I don't make assumptions other than that the fork will happen. The guide is steps required for minimization of damage.

[Isildur23]

Welcome-from-Beyond!

[keepdoing]

OK.... but isn't your entire premise based on the fact that non-XT coins (Core Coins) will somehow be so widely demanded based on the fact that non-XT will ultimately become a new sort of underground Alt-Coin in effect?  I mean - MY PREMISE is based on XT wins.

So maybe I am not understanding - but is this the underlying principle of your position?  That non-XT Bitcoin will be a highly demanded "underground" alternative version to the XT Bitcoin (which is what the masses, and financial institutions will use - because it won?)   And I am not trashing your principle - but it is more of a gambling strategy than an investment /wealth protection strategy.

I don't make assumptions other than that the fork will happen. The guide is steps required for minimization of damage.

OK - well, my scenario question did make a presumptive scenario - which I guess your answer is ignoring, so therefore has no value.  

And it sounds like yourargument does indeed make an assumption based on the fact that you said, "You will be unable to double your coins and earn money by selling non-XT coins."

You are basically ASSUMING that there will be a market for non-XT coins after the fork.  You are assuming that there won't be an immediate Flash Crash of the losing chain.  

I mean, in that scenario, you are simply gambling.  Not a smart one either it seems, because if your Bitcoin is worth $200 prefork, and non-XT chain flash crashes to $10 - I hardly see the value in taking $200 Bitcoin, that will probably start soaring in the XT Chain once the drama is over, and trying to "Double" your Bitcoin by moving it to a Chain that has a $10 value - and you double it $10 x2 to $20.  Now that is investment genius.

[keepdoing]

Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

Yes. If you aren't the sole controller of your private keys, you don't have any bitcoins. You have IOUs issued by whatever exchange you are using.

This argument is made more from a hatred and FUD of "The Man" than realistic awareness of how things work.  Coinbase and Circle have insurance on accounts, and they have 2-Factor, etc etc.   I mean - your argument could be made about the current banking system - but I bet you have a bank account.  And YES - they could do a "bank holiday" and they could freeze your assets, and the entire darn system could implode overnight.  But I seriously doubt that that will happen to the replacement bitcoin system immediately.   These entities have investments from the likes of JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs.  Now that is NOT a moral argument, because of course these folks are evil incarnate - BUT they also aren't going to let there newly built little replacement enterprises be compromised.  And they won't do anything like mass seizing of funds that would make for pretty bad press, and effectively kill any chance they have for mass adoption (which is clearly their goal).

So I respect your paranoia ad your position.  I actually like it from a macro perspective.  But in the near term it is naive.  I think to protect wealth you better have a healthy mix of assets - even physical ones like gold.  But for a time at least Bitcoin will eventually take over things I think - and it sure as heck won't become the global currency based on the idealistic visions of a well intentioned, but inexperienced few.  Sorry - but Bitcoin is entering it's adult phase, and old men with lots of power and experience are now sitting at the chess table.  Better start thinking with a bit more cunning and realism.

[Come-from-Beyond]

You are basically ASSUMING that there will be a market for non-XT coins after the fork.  You are assuming that there won't be an immediate Flash Crash of the losing chain.  

I mean, in that scenario, you are simply gambling.  Not a smart one either it seems, because if your Bitcoin is worth $200 prefork, and non-XT chain flash crashes to $10 - I hardly see the value in taking $200 Bitcoin, that will probably start soaring in the XT Chain once the drama is over, and trying to "Double" your Bitcoin by moving it to a Chain that has a $10 value - and you double it $10 x2 to $20.  Now that is investment genius.

I also assume that there will be miners to confirm your transaction, and that you have a computer to send the coins, and that there will be no blackout in your house. From this point of view I do assume extra things.

Regarding "investment genious", read #5 once again, please.

[keepdoing]

You are basically ASSUMING that there will be a market for non-XT coins after the fork.  You are assuming that there won't be an immediate Flash Crash of the losing chain.  

I mean, in that scenario, you are simply gambling.  Not a smart one either it seems, because if your Bitcoin is worth $200 prefork, and non-XT chain flash crashes to $10 - I hardly see the value in taking $200 Bitcoin, that will probably start soaring in the XT Chain once the drama is over, and trying to "Double" your Bitcoin by moving it to a Chain that has a $10 value - and you double it $10 x2 to $20.  Now that is investment genius.

I also assume that there will be miners to confirm your transaction, and that you have a computer to send the coins, and that there will be no blackout in your house. From this point of view I do assume extra things.

Regarding "investment genious", read #5 once again, please.

I am sorry - but now you are just throwing out irrational nonsense.  And I am honestly not trying to be disrespectful.  But it is becoming increasingly apparent how inexperienced some people are here in financial issues, and the way the system works.   And I am NOT saying that the system is good, heck I personally think it is basically evil as anything in the history of mankind.  And it is complicated too.  Incredibly complicated, and even more so based on the introduction of technology, which changes the rules frequently - often unexpectedly.  But some of the next phase of Bitcoin is going to be how it merges into "the system".   Because it has to if it is going to grow and survive and thrive. 

I'm just a middle aged pre-grey hair who likes to think he's one of the good guys.  And I have some petty good experience and background, and I see some people getting hurt / wiped out here with some of the ideas / advice going around.  I myself am very concerned with where things are going,and I think that how this core-XT fork turns out is the turning point that will decide many outcomes.

And I think XT will prevail, though I am not necessarily hoping for it in its current form.  But when it comes to protecting and investing my Bitcoin - I a not going to bet against the Huge Powers and Greedy Old men of the world in this transition.  I haven't by any means lost the idealism and dreams of my youth - but I'm not stupid either.  Patience and Cunning are good qualities in times like these.  And carefully weighing and sifting through the advice of all these forum boards filled with "experts of little experience".

[Alley]

I would advice nobody do this.  It's just plain stupid.

[S4VV4S]

I would advice nobody do this.  It's just plain stupid.

Usually when a person gives an advice, they give an explanation as to why they advise one to do something.
What is your reasoning?

[turvarya]

If there is a fork, than XT has already won. NonXT is a joke. No mining pool in his right mind will use it. Mining pools want certainty not chaos.
The whole "but what if people throw a lot of money at them"-argument is silly. It's a last resort, when you lack any real arguments. Again, no investor with a lot of money wants chaos. Causing chaos is not an investment plan.
The scenario at http://qntra.net/2015/01/the-hard-fork-missile-crisis/ is also a joke. A coin generated in one blockchain, can not jump into the other blockchain, since it is just invalid. All your clients do mostly is validating transactions and they don't accept invalid transactions regardless how many you throw at them.

[Chopperman]

Something else came to my mind:

If both chains continue to exist, would it be possible to do 'merged mining' on both blockchains,
similar to merged mining of BTC and NMC today ?

No one has answered this.  The answer must be yes, it would be possible with a modified client. 
Another scenario comes up when you consider the shadow miners, all the at-home ASIC owners who turned off their machines as they lost out to the mega-miners.   They'd surely consider turning them back onto mining on the "losing" fork at reduced value, because the difficulty will drop dramatically as well.   Shadow miners are mostly from the idealistic phase of Bitcoin, so their incentive to continue on Core if XT wins out will be great.

Both forks continue, one will not die to zero.   One may become sub $1 again, but that's OK for some people.

[keepdoing]

Something else came to my mind:

If both chains continue to exist, would it be possible to do 'merged mining' on both blockchains,
similar to merged mining of BTC and NMC today ?

No one has answered this.  The answer must be yes, it would be possible with a modified client. 
Another scenario comes up when you consider the shadow miners, all the at-home ASIC owners who turned off their machines as they lost out to the mega-miners.   They'd surely consider turning them back onto mining on the "losing" fork at reduced value, because the difficulty will drop dramatically as well.   Shadow miners are mostly from the idealistic phase of Bitcoin, so their incentive to continue on Core if XT wins out will be great.

Both forks continue, one will not die to zero.   One may become sub $1 again, but that's OK for some people.

OK - this actually made me think of something I haven't seen elsewhere.....
Let's assume the above scenario does occur - a fork where both chains survive.  What happens to the "finite number" of Bitcoin.  I mean, say you have 15 million Bitcoin at Zero Hour.  Then say XT Fork wins, and the vast majority of Bitcoins choose that chain.

But say 1 Million of those Bitcoin Holders choose the Core Chain.   Does that mean that the New Finite number of bitcoins that will ever exist on XT will now be 20 million?

NOTE:  I also still can't understand what is going to drive people to stay on Core IF XT Chain wins and takes off.  Because in that scenario there is almost a 100% chance that Bitcoin XT will start moving up in value, and Bitcoin-Core will start devaluing massively in the immediate aftermath.  I just am trying to imagine sitting there looking at my wallet with a Bitcoin in it, and saying if I take the right hand path I get $200+ and if I go left I get $20 - and then deciding to do the STUPID thing.  I mean - why wouldn't I just go to XT for a lot more value, then sell for dollars, then go back and buy TEN (10) Bitcoin-Core (now a minor fork altcoin).  I mean - I am thinking that is the path people would take???  I would.

[turvarya]

Something else came to my mind:

If both chains continue to exist, would it be possible to do 'merged mining' on both blockchains,
similar to merged mining of BTC and NMC today ?

No one has answered this.  The answer must be yes, it would be possible with a modified client. 
Another scenario comes up when you consider the shadow miners, all the at-home ASIC owners who turned off their machines as they lost out to the mega-miners.   They'd surely consider turning them back onto mining on the "losing" fork at reduced value, because the difficulty will drop dramatically as well.   Shadow miners are mostly from the idealistic phase of Bitcoin, so their incentive to continue on Core if XT wins out will be great.

Both forks continue, one will not die to zero.   One may become sub $1 again, but that's OK for some people.

OK - this actually made me think of something I haven't seen elsewhere.....
Let's assume the above scenario does occur - a fork where both chains survive.  What happens to the "finite number" of Bitcoin.  I mean, say you have 15 million Bitcoin at Zero Hour.  Then say XT Fork wins, and the vast majority of Bitcoins choose that chain.

But say 1 Million of those Bitcoin Holders choose the Core Chain.   Does that mean that the New Finite number of bitcoins that will ever exist on XT will now be 20 million?

NOTE:  I also still can't understand what is going to drive people to stay on Core IF XT Chain wins and takes off.  Because in that scenario there is almost a 100% chance that Bitcoin XT will start moving up in value, and Bitcoin-Core will start devaluing massively in the immediate aftermath.  I just am trying to imagine sitting there looking at my wallet with a Bitcoin in it, and saying if I take the right hand path I get $200+ and if I go left I get $20 - and then deciding to do the STUPID thing.  I mean - why wouldn't I just go to XT for a lot more value, then sell for dollars, then go back and buy TEN (10) Bitcoin-Core (now a minor fork altcoin).  I mean - I am thinking that is the path people would take???  I would.

No, it doesn't.
That's like saying "Will LiteCoin reduce the amount of Bitcoin?"
If there is a fork, it doesn't care about the other fork, it's really just as easy as that.

[johnyj]

A lot of people own bitcoins but only few understand how Bitcoin XT drama will unfold and what should be done to survive the aftermath. Both the sides (Mike+Gavin tandem VS other coredevs) are bad guys. They have economic (and psychological) incentive to push their plan through and they do NOT care about us. We, ordinary bitcoiners, should help each other so below you will find a guide how to save your money.


1. Move your bitcoins to a wallet controlled only by YOU. If it's a webwallet like BlockChain.Info it's still strongly recommended to download original Satoshi's wallet software and start downloading 40 GiB of the blockchain. If you leave your coins somewhere on the Internet you may be unable to double them once the fork happens.

2. Wait for the fork. Try to enjoy this time, the price will likely go down and down and down, but as long as it's above 50% of the price you paid you are safe. While you have nothing to do install software which works with Bitcoin XT.

3. After the fork find someone who owns coins not existing on the both blockchains and ask them to send few satoshis to your account, do it for the both blockchains. Those lucky owners of coins that don't exist on the other blockchain will likely be miners or guys who managed to get their transaction not included into the other chain. I expect that the market will react to the fork by selling such special coins slightly more expensive than their face value.

4. Find exchanges that work with different blockchains and send your coins TWICE by combining your original coins with coins obtained on the previous step. This will prevent a transaction on one blockchain from inclusion into the other blockchain.

5. Sell your bitcoins on the both exchanges for fiat and watch market reaction. Once the market decides which blockchain wins send fiat money to the corresponding exchange and buy bitcoins. If you are a skilled trader you may try to exchange BTC for LTC or another altcoin instead of fiat. Do it at your own risk, I don't dare to predict how altcoin markets will react to the fork.


PS: Once again, it is very important: your bitcoins must be controlled only by you when the fork happens, otherwise the wallet hoster will do the explained trick by himself and will feed you with a legit looking excuse.

After the fork, you can get coins from each chain by mining on the pools that support each chain

[keepdoing]

No, it doesn't.
That's like saying "Will LiteCoin reduce the amount of Bitcoin?"
If there is a fork, it doesn't care about the other fork, it's really just as easy as that.

Well, this doesn't make sense to me in the way I think about things.

If HYPOTHETICALLY at "Zero Hour" the hardfork occurs, and XT wins, but I subsequently choose to run my 1 million Bitcoins onto the old Core Chain - and if everyone seems pretty clear that those Bitcoins can NEVER EVER EVER go back onto the XT Chain - then it seems to me that the XT Chain just lost 1 million bitcoins.

So is my understanding of this flawed?  Or are you saying that my Core-Forked Bitcoin are still counted in the 21 Million XT Bitcoins - but just "lost".