[Guide] Surviving the fork, or How to double your bitcoins (or save fiat)

[kelsey]

miners can't decide on their own, true. but a combo of a few major miners/exchanges will do.
a miner would never switch to XT, if he can't find an exchange (running XT) to cash out.

however, the two top pools don't running XT (yet) >> https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/blocks/1
discus and ant are key as seen by this pool block distribution >> http://mempool.info/pools

traders also decide, they're basically left out of the voting but in the end if no one buys miners well.......

top pools won't run xt

[1714106578]

1714106578

[keepdoing]

Something else came to my mind:

If both chains continue to exist, would it be possible to do 'merged mining' on both blockchains,
similar to merged mining of BTC and NMC today ?

No one has answered this.  The answer must be yes, it would be possible with a modified client. 
Another scenario comes up when you consider the shadow miners, all the at-home ASIC owners who turned off their machines as they lost out to the mega-miners.   They'd surely consider turning them back onto mining on the "losing" fork at reduced value, because the difficulty will drop dramatically as well.   Shadow miners are mostly from the idealistic phase of Bitcoin, so their incentive to continue on Core if XT wins out will be great.

Both forks continue, one will not die to zero.   One may become sub $1 again, but that's OK for some people.

OK - this actually made me think of something I haven't seen elsewhere.....
Let's assume the above scenario does occur - a fork where both chains survive.  What happens to the "finite number" of Bitcoin.  I mean, say you have 15 million Bitcoin at Zero Hour.  Then say XT Fork wins, and the vast majority of Bitcoins choose that chain.

But say 1 Million of those Bitcoin Holders choose the Core Chain.   Does that mean that the New Finite number of bitcoins that will ever exist on XT will now be 20 million?

NOTE:  I also still can't understand what is going to drive people to stay on Core IF XT Chain wins and takes off.  Because in that scenario there is almost a 100% chance that Bitcoin XT will start moving up in value, and Bitcoin-Core will start devaluing massively in the immediate aftermath.  I just am trying to imagine sitting there looking at my wallet with a Bitcoin in it, and saying if I take the right hand path I get $200+ and if I go left I get $20 - and then deciding to do the STUPID thing.  I mean - why wouldn't I just go to XT for a lot more value, then sell for dollars, then go back and buy TEN (10) Bitcoin-Core (now a minor fork altcoin).  I mean - I am thinking that is the path people would take???  I would.

No, it doesn't.
That's like saying "Will LiteCoin reduce the amount of Bitcoin?"
If there is a fork, it doesn't care about the other fork, it's really just as easy as that.

This is right.  Don't think of a fork as dividing bitcoin into two pieces.  Think of it as creating a parallel universe.  (The fiat money invested would divide though.)

I'm still absorbing all of this - but I do want to say that I am still not convinced that the doubling / dual fork parallel universes is fact or theory.  I really think this is a pretty big deal that is not being widely discussed - so that makes me wonder if it is a Real deal.  I think something like this would deserve a public comment from one of the Core Devs or Gavin/Mike.

But assuming it is possible....

1) This raises really big issues with future Hard Forks.   For example - what happens if the China Miners/Exchanges decide to go a different route from Western Miner/Exchanges.  Could the Bitcoin Supply split again?   Because once things get more globally accepted and Bitcoin a more global currency - I can see potential future politically motivated Hard Fork divergencies.  I mean - if Gavin & Mike can do it - surely China or the U.S. or Europe could do it??   As pointed out earlier - kind of blows the whole fixed supply concept.

2) OP posted a few posts up something about the Bitcoin Price could be driven down, even on both chains, as cross attacks/dumping occurs.   Eh - maybe.  But I think that is taking a limited perspective of looking at Bitcoin with the current currency marketshare it has NOW.  What happened to the whole 1 Bitcoin will equal $1 Million in a endstage game.   It could just as easily be that an event happens after the fork to make everyone run/be driven into Bitcoin, and price will go up so fast that Buyers will outnumber sellers 10's of thousand to 1.  Not that farfetched actually.

3) Interestingly, if the whole Doubling / Dual Universe Coin theory is viable, then it most likely will be known by everyone as Zero Hour approaches, and only an idiot won't be making plans to double coins into both universes.  And so I would imagine you actually would end up with 2 Bitcoin Currencies.  Core would most like be the favored "underground currency" and would be treated/seen sort of like physical Gold is today.  XT would become the Fiat Bitcoin obviously.  BOTH would probably skyrocket in value eventually - although because of the huge insider Miner/Exchange infrastructure probably following XT - XT-Fiat would indeed probably shoot the moon fastest.  BUT - like I said, if this is real, then EVERYOE will know about it soon enough,a nd plans being made - as a defense against the XT Fork if nothing else.

4) I'd still like to hear more on the technical issues involved in "tainting" coins.   Again, assuming that this is even possible.  Because it is really sounding a lot like an untested theory - but with potentially huge consequences.

[harrymmmm]

The old wisdom is don't fix it if it ain't broken. I guest majority of the miners will take a wait and see stance. Recent stress test already showed that even every block is above 1MB, the network still works well

That does not work when you are trying to revolutionize sectors ... we do not want to stay in the stone ages

Banks stayed in stone age for hundreds of years and that's the reason they become the master slaveholder. Value is all about stability and integrity

Aint that the truth.
Right now bitcoin is truly looking like amateur hour to the financial world.
And just when it could be getting a huge boost as a safe haven in the current increasing perception of a global meltdown.
Shame

[jl777]

Something else came to my mind:

If both chains continue to exist, would it be possible to do 'merged mining' on both blockchains,
similar to merged mining of BTC and NMC today ?

No one has answered this.  The answer must be yes, it would be possible with a modified client. 
Another scenario comes up when you consider the shadow miners, all the at-home ASIC owners who turned off their machines as they lost out to the mega-miners.   They'd surely consider turning them back onto mining on the "losing" fork at reduced value, because the difficulty will drop dramatically as well.   Shadow miners are mostly from the idealistic phase of Bitcoin, so their incentive to continue on Core if XT wins out will be great.

Both forks continue, one will not die to zero.   One may become sub $1 again, but that's OK for some people.

OK - this actually made me think of something I haven't seen elsewhere.....
Let's assume the above scenario does occur - a fork where both chains survive.  What happens to the "finite number" of Bitcoin.  I mean, say you have 15 million Bitcoin at Zero Hour.  Then say XT Fork wins, and the vast majority of Bitcoins choose that chain.

But say 1 Million of those Bitcoin Holders choose the Core Chain.   Does that mean that the New Finite number of bitcoins that will ever exist on XT will now be 20 million?

NOTE:  I also still can't understand what is going to drive people to stay on Core IF XT Chain wins and takes off.  Because in that scenario there is almost a 100% chance that Bitcoin XT will start moving up in value, and Bitcoin-Core will start devaluing massively in the immediate aftermath.  I just am trying to imagine sitting there looking at my wallet with a Bitcoin in it, and saying if I take the right hand path I get $200+ and if I go left I get $20 - and then deciding to do the STUPID thing.  I mean - why wouldn't I just go to XT for a lot more value, then sell for dollars, then go back and buy TEN (10) Bitcoin-Core (now a minor fork altcoin).  I mean - I am thinking that is the path people would take???  I would.

No, it doesn't.
That's like saying "Will LiteCoin reduce the amount of Bitcoin?"
If there is a fork, it doesn't care about the other fork, it's really just as easy as that.

This is right.  Don't think of a fork as dividing bitcoin into two pieces.  Think of it as creating a parallel universe.  (The fiat money invested would divide though.)

I'm still absorbing all of this - but I do want to say that I am still not convinced that the doubling / dual fork parallel universes is fact or theory.  I really think this is a pretty big deal that is not being widely discussed - so that makes me wonder if it is a Real deal.  I think something like this would deserve a public comment from one of the Core Devs or Gavin/Mike.

But assuming it is possible....

1) This raises really big issues with future Hard Forks.   For example - what happens if the China Miners/Exchanges decide to go a different route from Western Miner/Exchanges.  Could the Bitcoin Supply split again?   Because once things get more globally accepted and Bitcoin a more global currency - I can see potential future politically motivated Hard Fork divergencies.  I mean - if Gavin & Mike can do it - surely China or the U.S. or Europe could do it??   As pointed out earlier - kind of blows the whole fixed supply concept.

2) OP posted a few posts up something about the Bitcoin Price could be driven down, even on both chains, as cross attacks/dumping occurs.   Eh - maybe.  But I think that is taking a limited perspective of looking at Bitcoin with the current currency marketshare it has NOW.  What happened to the whole 1 Bitcoin will equal $1 Million in a endstage game.   It could just as easily be that an event happens after the fork to make everyone run/be driven into Bitcoin, and price will go up so fast that Buyers will outnumber sellers 10's of thousand to 1.  Not that farfetched actually.

3) Interestingly, if the whole Doubling / Dual Universe Coin theory is viable, then it most likely will be known by everyone as Zero Hour approaches, and only an idiot won't be making plans to double coins into both universes.  And so I would imagine you actually would end up with 2 Bitcoin Currencies.  Core would most like be the favored "underground currency" and would be treated/seen sort of like physical Gold is today.  XT would become the Fiat Bitcoin obviously.  BOTH would probably skyrocket in value eventually - although because of the huge insider Miner/Exchange infrastructure probably following XT - XT-Fiat would indeed probably shoot the moon fastest.  BUT - like I said, if this is real, then EVERYOE will know about it soon enough,a nd plans being made - as a defense against the XT Fork if nothing else.

4) I'd still like to hear more on the technical issues involved in "tainting" coins.   Again, assuming that this is even possible.  Because it is really sounding a lot like an untested theory - but with potentially huge consequences.

If you understand about bitcoin tx using inputs and making outputs, then you can see that this is not any theory.
Just also remember that bitcoin protocol will reject any invalid input, otherwise people could just make up random inputs and spend them.

with me so far?

ok, so now we assume that XT will get a block that core cant use, ie it exceeds its capacity.

Now what do we have? A block with unspent outputs that is perfectly valid in the XT universe, but totally invalid in the core universe.

there is no theory, uncertainity or any doubt that there will be outputs that are valid in XT but invalid in core. Now, we take these XT only outputs and combine it with existing corecoins that were there before the fork. no magic required, just a matter to create a transaction that uses an XT only input and an old input that existed prefork.

what happens?

In XT chain, this is a perfectly valid tx and it can be spent wherever XT is accepted. However, remember about the part of the protocol rejecting tx with invalid inputs? In core chain, this tx is rejected. As in it never happened!

So you have just spawned an XT only bitcoin, but you still have the original bitcoin! As to why this is not discussed by the others, I have no idea. Maybe they just assume that overnight thousands of decentralized entities with simulteneously flip the same switch in the same direction so this is not anything to worry about?

James

[jl777]

The old wisdom is don't fix it if it ain't broken. I guest majority of the miners will take a wait and see stance. Recent stress test already showed that even every block is above 1MB, the network still works well

That does not work when you are trying to revolutionize sectors ... we do not want to stay in the stone ages

Banks stayed in stone age for hundreds of years and that's the reason they become the master slaveholder. Value is all about stability and integrity

Aint that the truth.
Right now bitcoin is truly looking like amateur hour to the financial world.
And just when it could be getting a huge boost as a safe haven in the current increasing perception of a global meltdown.
Shame

and this raises the possibility that it is all an intentional thing...
to create the very real possibility of splitting the bitcoin

[JorgeStolfi]

Guys, the fork will NOT create two independently usable altcoins -- even if the blockchain splits into two branches that survive long enough to play with.  

Some clever bitcoin hackers may be able to create transactions that are valid on only one chosen branch.  However, most transactions issued by typical users will be executed in both chains;.  Thus they will not be able to "see" the two altcoins.  When one of those transactions, by accident, turns out to be valid for only one chain, the client will either not notice ever, or will get confused, and maybe end up with his wallet in an inconsistent state, maybe even lose coins.

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

[jl777]

Guys, the fork will NOT create two independently usable altcoins -- even if the blockchain splits into two branches that survive long enough to play with.  

Some clever bitcoin hackers may be able to create transactions that are valid on only one chosen branch.  However, most transactions issued by typical users will be executed in both chains;.  Thus they will not be able to "see" the two altcoins.  When one of those transactions, by accident, turns out to be valid for only one chain, the client will either not notice ever, or will get confused, and maybe end up with his wallet in an inconsistent state, maybe even lose coins.

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

instantly the moment of the fork?
across all vendors across the entire world?
what if they are sleeping?

[keepdoing]

Guys, the fork will NOT create two independently usable altcoins -- even if the blockchain splits into two branches that survive long enough to play with.  

Some clever bitcoin hackers may be able to create transactions that are valid on only one chosen branch.  However, most transactions issued by typical users will be executed in both chains;.  Thus they will not be able to "see" the two altcoins.  When one of those transactions, by accident, turns out to be valid for only one chain, the client will either not notice ever, or will get confused, and maybe end up with his wallet in an inconsistent state, maybe even lose coins.

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

instantly the moment of the fork?
across all vendors across the entire world?
what if they are sleeping?

Oh for crying out loud..... this is a complete and utter Cluster F#<K. 

[croTek4]

I feel like everyone has gone full retard with this one. There will not be 2 different usable, spendable, mineable coins.

[jl777]

Guys, the fork will NOT create two independently usable altcoins -- even if the blockchain splits into two branches that survive long enough to play with.  

Some clever bitcoin hackers may be able to create transactions that are valid on only one chosen branch.  However, most transactions issued by typical users will be executed in both chains;.  Thus they will not be able to "see" the two altcoins.  When one of those transactions, by accident, turns out to be valid for only one chain, the client will either not notice ever, or will get confused, and maybe end up with his wallet in an inconsistent state, maybe even lose coins.

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

instantly the moment of the fork?
across all vendors across the entire world?
what if they are sleeping?

Oh for crying out loud..... this is a complete and utter Cluster F#<K. 

when the majority of bitcoin core devs all work for the same profit based company, well it is not surprising that making profits for that company trumps other things

In my experience it is impossible to coordinate the actions of much more than half a dozen people, especially when they are all over the world, even when they all want to do the same thing.

So how on earth with thousands or hundreds of thousands of people all do the same thing at the same exact moment, especially when a significant minority is disagreeing

I dont know the stats on the last bitcoin hardfork and how long it took for "everyone" to upgrade, but my guess is that it took a bit more than 10 minutes

James

[jl777]

I feel like everyone has gone full retard with this one. There will not be 2 different usable, spendable, mineable coins.

not long term, no
but maybe for 20 minutes from zeroblock?
or maybe a few hours
or days?

how many vendors are there that deal with bitcoin?
how many timezones?
what if it happens on a weekend?

and how long will the losing coin be worth more than LTC?
more than NMC?

remember there are a ton of altcoins that still have value long after they are dead

James

[JorgeStolfi]

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

instantly the moment of the fork?
across all vendors across the entire world?
what if they are sleeping?
[/quote]

The XT fork will not be a "stealth fork" (like the BIP66 caper).

Again: if and when the blockchain tags indicate that 75% of the miners are ready, there will be a 2 week period during which everyone running Core (or other incompatible software) will be warned of the event and urged to switch to XT (or any compatible software).  If and when that happen, you may be sure that all sensible exchanges and services will upgrade, together with the sensible miners among the other 25%.  Perhaps even Luke.  Perhaps even Mircea.

So, OK, there may be a few "rebel" exchanges left to cater for some thoroughly confused clients who did not upgrade, and the few "rebel" clients who refuse to consider bigger blocks and are willing to put up with 1 block every 2 hours...  But I still don't see any great opportunity there.

(After the 2 weeks period, there will still exist only one branch, and hence only one altcoin, until someone mines a block larger than 1 MB.  That may not take too long.  The average block size in early 2016 should still be 0.7 MB, but variable block spacings and empty blocks may create a backlog of more than 1 MB in the queue at some point.)

[kingscrown]

while not sure if this will work, the idea itself is great,

im sure there is some superb tech peopel who already have bots to do all this

[keepdoing]

I dont know the stats on the last bitcoin hardfork and how long it took for "everyone" to upgrade, but my guess is that it took a bit more than 10 minutes

James

Was the last fork as dramatic and full of emotion as this one?  Did it involve this much at stake?  This much accusation and handwringing about selling out to the fiat players?  I mean seriously... comparing THIS fork to one in the past is like comparing getting mad at your wife because she was flirting to how you would feel if you caught your wife in bed with someone.  LOTS more emotion being generated in this fork it seems to me.  Am I wrong?  Did as big a part of the community DIRECTLY THREATEN to intentionally split the chain forever?  C'mon.  Apples to Oranges.

[jl777]

Therefore, there will not be a functioning market for both versions; it would only cater for those clever hackers. Malicious hackers may be able to exploit the confusion of some ordinary clients to do double spends; but payment processors and exchanges will almost certainly deal with just one "bitcoin", the one with mining majority.  

instantly the moment of the fork?
across all vendors across the entire world?
what if they are sleeping?

The XT fork will not be a "stealth fork" (like the BIP66 caper).

Again: if and when the blockchain tags indicate that 75% of the miners are ready, there will be a 2 week period during which everyone running Core (or other incompatible software) will be warned of the event and urged to switch to XT (or any compatible software).  If and when that happen, you may be sure that all sensible exchanges and services will upgrade, together with the sensible miners among the other 25%.  Perhaps even Luke.  Perhaps even Mircea.

So, OK, there may be a few "rebel" exchanges left to cater for some thoroughly confused clients who did not upgrade, and the few "rebel" clients who refuse to consider bigger blocks and are willing to put up with 1 block every 2 hours...  But I still don't see any great opportunity there.

(After the 2 weeks period, there will still exist only one branch, and hence only one altcoin, until someone mines a block larger than 1 MB.  That may not take too long.  The average block size in early 2016 should still be 0.7 MB, but variable block spacings and empty blocks may create a backlog of more than 1 MB in the queue at some point.)

[/quote]
a forced global upgrade across thousands of independent entities, in two weeks.

No problem. Logistically this is a trivial matter of coordination. After all how hard can it be to force everybody to adopt the new bitcoin, even though they dont agree with it?

But even you agree that there will be an altcoin created out of this and that altcoin will have nontrivial value, probably more than LTC, certainly more than NMC. But what are a few millions of dollars when we are talking about a forced upgrade onto all the people that dont see the light.

James

[jl777]

I dont know the stats on the last bitcoin hardfork and how long it took for "everyone" to upgrade, but my guess is that it took a bit more than 10 minutes

James

Was the last fork as dramatic and full of emotion as this one?  Did it involve this much at stake?  This much accusation and handwringing about selling out to the fiat players?  I mean seriously... comparing THIS fork to one in the past is like comparing getting mad at your wife because she was flirting to how you would feel if you caught your wife in bed with someone.  LOTS more emotion being generated in this fork it seems to me.  Am I wrong?  Did as big a part of the community DIRECTLY THREATEN to intentionally split the chain forever?  C'mon.  Apples to Oranges.

So this makes it even more likely that holdouts will keep the losing chain alive for more than 2 weeks.

[G2M]

A lot of people own bitcoins but only few understand how Bitcoin XT drama will unfold and what should be done to survive the aftermath. Both the sides (Mike+Gavin tandem VS other coredevs) are bad guys. They have economic (and psychological) incentive to push their plan through and they do NOT care about us. We, ordinary bitcoiners, should help each other so below you will find a guide how to save your money.


1. Move your bitcoins to a wallet controlled only by YOU. If it's a webwallet like BlockChain.Info it's still strongly recommended to download original Satoshi's wallet software and start downloading 40 GiB of the blockchain. If you leave your coins somewhere on the Internet you may be unable to double them once the fork happens.

2. Wait for the fork. Try to enjoy this time, the price will likely go down and down and down, but as long as it's above 50% of the price you paid you are safe. While you have nothing to do install software which works with Bitcoin XT.

3. After the fork find someone who owns coins not existing on the both blockchains and ask them to send few satoshis to your account, do it for the both blockchains. Those lucky owners of coins that don't exist on the other blockchain will likely be miners or guys who managed to get their transaction not included into the other chain. I expect that the market will react to the fork by selling such special coins slightly more expensive than their face value.

4. Find exchanges that work with different blockchains and send your coins TWICE by combining your original coins with coins obtained on the previous step. This will prevent a transaction on one blockchain from inclusion into the other blockchain.

5. Sell your bitcoins on the both exchanges for fiat and watch market reaction. Once the market decides which blockchain wins send fiat money to the corresponding exchange and buy bitcoins. If you are a skilled trader you may try to exchange BTC for LTC or another altcoin instead of fiat. Do it at your own risk, I don't dare to predict how altcoin markets will react to the fork.


PS: Once again, it is very important: your bitcoins must be controlled only by you when the fork happens, otherwise the wallet hoster will do the explained trick by himself and will feed you with a legit looking excuse.


Edit: Maybe it's not the best strategy, see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1157679.msg12197629#msg12197629...

How to survive the fork:

1: Sell your XBT now.
2: Rebuy your XBT 4-5 fold on both chains with the same equivalent in fiat, about half and half, in about 5 months.
3: Continue holding your XBT forever, only now you have 4-5x as much on two XBT chains.

[keepdoing]

I dont know the stats on the last bitcoin hardfork and how long it took for "everyone" to upgrade, but my guess is that it took a bit more than 10 minutes

James

Was the last fork as dramatic and full of emotion as this one?  Did it involve this much at stake?  This much accusation and handwringing about selling out to the fiat players?  I mean seriously... comparing THIS fork to one in the past is like comparing getting mad at your wife because she was flirting to how you would feel if you caught your wife in bed with someone.  LOTS more emotion being generated in this fork it seems to me.  Am I wrong?  Did as big a part of the community DIRECTLY THREATEN to intentionally split the chain forever?  C'mon.  Apples to Oranges.

So this makes it even more likely that holdouts will keep the losing chain alive for more than 2 weeks.

Absolutely!  Which takes me back to the reason I made the Cluster F#<K comment which is the fact that if this "Dual Universe Doubling" theory (sorry - I still say it is theory - although possibly I believe a little more after your explanation) is real - then I now understand that this creates a situation that bitcoins could end up flying across the Parallel Universe Rift occassionally, reeking havoc, causing bitcoins to be lost etc.   That was proposed as an earlier poster out as a "relative" rarity - but if this split LASTS, the longer it lasts, the bigger the chance for bitcoin loss - and speaking from a simply societal common sense macro picture standpoint - this is, again, a COMPLETE Cluster F#<K for the future of Bitcoin.  Mass Markets and Media don't like confusion and uncertainty.  And this will do it.  

[jl777]

I dont know the stats on the last bitcoin hardfork and how long it took for "everyone" to upgrade, but my guess is that it took a bit more than 10 minutes

James

Was the last fork as dramatic and full of emotion as this one?  Did it involve this much at stake?  This much accusation and handwringing about selling out to the fiat players?  I mean seriously... comparing THIS fork to one in the past is like comparing getting mad at your wife because she was flirting to how you would feel if you caught your wife in bed with someone.  LOTS more emotion being generated in this fork it seems to me.  Am I wrong?  Did as big a part of the community DIRECTLY THREATEN to intentionally split the chain forever?  C'mon.  Apples to Oranges.

So this makes it even more likely that holdouts will keep the losing chain alive for more than 2 weeks.

Absolutely!  Which takes me back to the reason I made the Cluster F#<K comment which is the fact that if this "Dual Universe Doubling" theory (sorry - I still say it is theory - although possibly I believe a little more after your explanation) is real - then I now understand that this creates a situation that bitcoins could end up flying across the Parallel Universe Rift occassionally, reeking havoc, causing bitcoins to be lost etc.   That was proposed as an earlier poster out as a "relative" rarity - but if this split LASTS, the longer it lasts, the bigger the chance for bitcoin loss - and speaking from a simply societal common sense macro picture standpoint - this is, again, a COMPLETE Cluster F#<K for the future of Bitcoin.  Mass Markets and Media don't like confusion and uncertainty.  And this will do it.  

If bitcoin was fully centralized and had a command structure where everybody had to obey, then maybe 2 weeks for a global update would be ok, though still on the edge of doable.

As it is, with the protocol design, the likely outcome is that the combined market cap will be split between the two variants as long as either has any chance of winning and even after a clear winner emerges, the remaining altcoin (be it original or XT) will still hang on for months

What I dont understand is why is this ultimatum sort of mechanism even existing?

[lucky88888]

if XT wins, does this mean all the current alt coins that relies their chain security with merge mining with bitcoin core will loose substantial network hash and end up dying along with the bitcoin core.

so asap get out of the alts that have merge mining with bitcoin core if XT succeeds or can they merge mining with both core and XT?

i think right now the safest bet is ethereum, it came out just the right time for the shaken btc world, people will look into eth for hope that it will take over most of btc marketcap.

ps i have no eth, only have nxt.