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Author Topic: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A)  (Read 999644 times)
len01
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May 12, 2026, 03:25:34 PM

-snip
Why not bet on both BTTS and favorite


No, I’m more comfortable betting on the BTTS option only rather than using a bet builder. At first, I was also confident that Napoli could win, but after thinking about it again, this team no longer has anything to fight for in the standings, so their performance can easily become inconsistent again and create surprises.

And yeah, in the end Napoli really did surprise everyone by losing at home by a narrow margin. That was actually a bit embarrassing.

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asriloni
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May 12, 2026, 03:26:21 PM

Last night, Napoli were devastated after conceding a late goal at home.

Bologna scored the winning goal shortly before the end of the match and won the game.

If Napoli had won this match, they would have secured qualification for the Champions League. However, they still risk dropping further down the table.

In Serie A, there are only 3 points between 2nd and 5th place. With 2 weeks remaining in the season, the results these teams get will be extremely important.
The 2nd - 6th positions still have chance to secure the UCL spot. So it's all about what clubs that will bottle the rest of games. If Napoli wants UCL spot, they have to secure a win in the upoming game against Udinese. However, udinese is performing quite consistent. So i see the possibility for Napoli to bottle this game with draw or lose.

When it happens they clearly lose 50% of their chance to secure UCL spot with assumption rest of clubs are winning their games. This is why the competition is just getting even more entertaining with all of clubs have same mission to win the rest of games.

The Plot twist is that Napoli and Milan are losing the rest of games. Meanwhile, Roma and Como qualify for UCL. It will shock all of football fans if it happens. Nevertheless, Napoli and Milan have to face two losses in a row.

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Iamgoat
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May 12, 2026, 03:45:35 PM


I'm sure it will be like this.

2. Napoli
3. Juve
4. Roma
5. Como
6. Milan

I know very well Como is already confirmed to play in european competition for the first time ever, but it will better if they can manage to qualify for the Europa League instead of Conference League. They deserve a better spot than Milan who played badly whole time during late season.
So lemme guess Como will win the rest of games while Milan will bottle all of remaining games.

It won't be surprised if it happens because Milan is a clown club now.   Grin Grin Grin
This is why I have always used any chance I got to congratulations the Inter Milan team for their well done job because it is not easy to stay relevant for a long time. They were able to record a 5 successive league titles streaks from 2006 up till 2010. They didn't stop there, they also went ahead to record their most recent titles including the one they won in 2020, 2023 and 2025 which happens to be last year. Now they will be adding this year to their bag. Milan has not been able to catch up with their league titles recently and this time around we see they dragging positions with Como who's looking forward to go above them in the table standing and land themselves more opportunities.

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May 12, 2026, 04:22:40 PM

-snip
Why not bet on both BTTS and favorite


No, I’m more comfortable betting on the BTTS option only rather than using a bet builder. At first, I was also confident that Napoli could win, but after thinking about it again, this team no longer has anything to fight for in the standings, so their performance can easily become inconsistent again and create surprises.

And yeah, in the end Napoli really did surprise everyone by losing at home by a narrow margin. That was actually a bit embarrassing.
I am happy that you followed your instinct and bet only on BTTS because Napoli would have disappointed you. Bologna took the lead 2-0 and in the second half, Napoli was able to equalize the goals but couldn't hold on till the final whistle as they allowed Bologna to score the winning goal which separated both sides.

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giammangiato
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May 12, 2026, 04:30:39 PM


I'm sure it will be like this.

2. Napoli
3. Juve
4. Roma
5. Como
6. Milan

I know very well Como is already confirmed to play in european competition for the first time ever, but it will better if they can manage to qualify for the Europa League instead of Conference League. They deserve a better spot than Milan who played badly whole time during late season.
So lemme guess Como will win the rest of games while Milan will bottle all of remaining games.

It won't be surprised if it happens because Milan is a clown club now.   Grin Grin Grin

You came close on this table, you gave more hope to Milan but considering the points difference still could happen the unexpected for Como and the opportunity for Milan.
Como's certainty is relative, the problem for them will then be to maintain and above all improve their performances for next season, in which case the competition will be more difficult.
I don't agree with giving Milan fans clowns though, even if you say it jokingly, I like to be sporty and friendly.  Wink

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hyudien
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May 12, 2026, 04:38:41 PM




No, I’m more comfortable betting on the BTTS option only rather than using a bet builder. At first, I was also confident that Napoli could win, but after thinking about it again, this team no longer has anything to fight for in the standings, so their performance can easily become inconsistent again and create surprises.

And yeah, in the end Napoli really did surprise everyone by losing at home by a narrow margin. That was actually a bit embarrassing.

Congratulations on not being tempted by the bet builder option, and also congratulations on the win, it's very good to get x2, because it's quite rare to BTTS (yes) with 2 odds.  Even the score of this match exceeded expectations, as I predicted it would end under 3 goals.
Napoli defeat, I think will be quite depressing for them, because their position is not completely safe from Runner up, there is Juventus who is very close to them, even if they produce the same results in the remaining two matches, their position can plunge into the top 5 if Roma and Milan win the remaining two matches.

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May 12, 2026, 04:43:35 PM

Congratulations on not being tempted by the bet builder option, and also congratulations on the win, it's very good to get x2, because it's quite rare to BTTS (yes) with 2 odds.  Even the score of this match exceeded expectations, as I predicted it would end under 3 goals.
Napoli defeat, I think will be quite depressing for them, because their position is not completely safe from Runner up, there is Juventus who is very close to them, even if they produce the same results in the remaining two matches, their position can plunge into the top 5 if Roma and Milan win the remaining two matches.

Your prediction is wrong. But I thought so too. I didn't think there would be 3+ goals in the match. My prediction was that Napoli would win 2-1. It was Napoli's home match. It is natural to consider them the favorite. Very few bettors had bet on Bologna to win. But they have profited.

If Napoli cannot win their last two matches against Pisa and Udinese, they will face a threat. It will be difficult for them to stay in the top 4 of the table. I believe that Napoli will win the last two matches without any major problems.

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May 12, 2026, 05:13:06 PM

If Napoli cannot win their last two matches against Pisa and Udinese, they will face a threat. It will be difficult for them to stay in the top 4 of the table. I believe that Napoli will win the last two matches without any major problems.

Juventus are currently better than Napoli. I mean in terms of recent form... But they are unlucky that Napoli have an easier fixture than them. Otherwise they would really be able to capture the 2nd position too.

Still everything is possible of course. Apart from that the top 4 race is still very heated! Even Napoli have a chance to stay out of this area but it is a lower probability compared to the others.

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May 12, 2026, 05:19:01 PM

The situation with Roma and Milan and Como is still very nail biting season ending, to be fair Napoli and Juventus are not that far away neither, they can't afford to lose, if they do, we could still see them go down but ı doubt that would happen. We have to wait and watch these last games very carefully because anything could happen.

In theory, if I am not mistaken we could see even Napoli being fifth. There are 2 more games left, which means that if Napoli loses all 2 , then we could see other teams win both , and that would make Napoli fifth. But I am definitely sure that is not going to happen. So the battle is mostly between Milan and Roma and Como, rest is not sure, Juventus could be an issue too if they lose, but they could do fine too.

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May 12, 2026, 05:33:10 PM

Juventus are currently better than Napoli.
If you look at the 3-0 victory over Napoli, yes, there is no denying it, perhaps it is true, as you said, that Juventus has shown and proven a game that looks aggressive, controlled and also fairly neat in the game.

However, if you look at the data between Napoli and Juventus in the May 2026 standings book, Juventus is two points behind Napoli, between 70 points and 68 points for Juventus, but this is not a far point. If Juventus can maintain what they have been fighting for now, it is certainly possible that Napoli will be far behind against Juventus.

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May 12, 2026, 05:40:09 PM

 Napoli has always found it hard to outperform average clubs this season. Yesterday's game should have ended in their favor but Bologna weren't willing to tamp down on their desire for three points. Maybe Napoli felt that since they have been beating them before, it will be business as usual but what they got was something else. Inside 9 minutes, the visitors had registered a goal and didn't hesitate to go up by two goals. For me, it's hard work that earned Bologna all three points because at some point they lost control and it should have been the end but a beautiful overhead kick from Jonathan Rowe saw to it that they got all of it.

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May 12, 2026, 06:14:56 PM

I am happy that you followed your instinct and bet only on BTTS because Napoli would have disappointed you. Bologna took the lead 2-0 and in the second half, Napoli was able to equalize the goals but couldn't hold on till the final whistle as they allowed Bologna to score the winning goal which separated both sides.
I didn't expect the game to turn out this way because Napoli was the clear favorite. Before that game, Bologna had not won a game in three matches. So I was expecting it to be an easy game for last season's Serie A champions. Napoli ended this season without winning a major competition. They won the Supercoppa Italiana in December and were expected to have a good season. But the season is ending below my expectations.

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May 12, 2026, 06:17:35 PM



Serie A champion has been decided, but the biggest question now is which teams will qualify for the Champions League. Napoli is in the most advantageous position. If they win today, Napoli's Champions League participation is almost guaranteed.
Yesterday, Milan lost to Atalanta at home and remained on 67 points. Roma is currently securing a Champions League spot based on goal difference. I really want Como to be in the Champions League.

I don't know where you got that picture from, but put that website on your blocklist.

The placement in Seria A is decided by head-to-head results first, and Milan is ahead of Roma and will always be on same points. Roma can have a +100000 goal difference, but they would not pass them at same points.
Milan beat them 1-0 and draw 1-1, they have the advantage.
Same with Milan, Como, Milan beat them 3-1 and draw 1-1, again at the same points they will be ahead.


I thought the head-to-head tiebreaker only existed in the Turkish league. There's no such thing in the Premier League. I thought Serie A was similar to the Premier League.
There are two matches left, and I think the league will end with the points difference without considering head-to-head tiebreakers.
It looks like there will be points lost in the remaining matches.
By the way, thanks for the information. I've learned about the system in Serie A.


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May 12, 2026, 06:24:33 PM
Last edit: May 12, 2026, 06:52:11 PM by stompix

I don't know why people quote those odds from sites that don;t even get the rankings right..

Yes, Milan plays like crap, and I'm saying this as a fan that is disappointed to the max on the team but:
-Milan beat Roma once and drew once
-Milan beat Como and drew once
-Both games with Juventus ended 0-0
-They won 2-1 and lost 1-0 with Napoli

If they end up equal on points with Roma or Como, they would be ahead in the standings.
1 win and one draw is enough to keep ahead of Como even if Como wins both matches.

Milan plays Genoa and Cagliari, 14th and 16th.
Juventus plays Fiorentina and Torino, 12th and 15th.
Roma plays Lazio and Verona, 9th and 19th, but Lazio would love to screw their rivals in that match!
Como plays Parma and Cremonese, 13th and 18th, with Cremonese desperate for points to avoid relegation.

Only Milan and Juventus meet teams that have nothing to play for, and Milan faces the weaker ones!

So why is Como better than Milan, because Milan lost with Sassuolo? Oh what a surprise, Sassuolo also beat Como 4 roudns ago!

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May 12, 2026, 06:50:42 PM

I am happy that you followed your instinct and bet only on BTTS because Napoli would have disappointed you. Bologna took the lead 2-0 and in the second half, Napoli was able to equalize the goals but couldn't hold on till the final whistle as they allowed Bologna to score the winning goal which separated both sides.
I didn't expect the game to turn out this way because Napoli was the clear favorite. Before that game, Bologna had not won a game in three matches. So I was expecting it to be an easy game for last season's Serie A champions. Napoli ended this season without winning a major competition. They won the Supercoppa Italiana in December and were expected to have a good season. But the season is ending below my expectations.

Almost everyone did not expect the kind of result they saw at the end of the match because it was believed that Napoli was the favorite team to win the match. But I later felt that Napoli messed up the match because they had already secured their position in the Champions League, so it may be that they did not take the match so seriously.Recently, Bologna have not been in good form, so it was a big surprise how they managed to win the match, even by scoring three away goals against a team like Napoli. But one thing I still understand about the match is that Bologna was able to utilize almost all the good chances they created compared to Napoli.It really pained me yesterday because I bet on Napoli to win the match, but I ended up losing.

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May 12, 2026, 07:23:57 PM

-snip
Why not bet on both BTTS and favorite


No, I’m more comfortable betting on the BTTS option only rather than using a bet builder. At first, I was also confident that Napoli could win, but after thinking about it again, this team no longer has anything to fight for in the standings, so their performance can easily become inconsistent again and create surprises.

And yeah, in the end Napoli really did surprise everyone by losing at home by a narrow margin. That was actually a bit embarrassing.
I am happy that you followed your instinct and bet only on BTTS because Napoli would have disappointed you. Bologna took the lead 2-0 and in the second half, Napoli was able to equalize the goals but couldn't hold on till the final whistle as they allowed Bologna to score the winning goal which separated both sides.

It is one of the reasons why everyone has to believe that gambling is all about luck. Because if we look at this game clearly before the match started, after comparing the statistics of both teams, it was clear that staking on Napoli for a straight win looked safer. But at the end of the match, it was another story that many people did not expect.I know someone who bet on the match and staked a reasonable amount, but his option was Napoli to win or draw. Still, he lost the bet because Napoli was not even able to draw the match, despite it being a home game. I was highly disappointed with Napoli because I did not expect them to perform in that manner.

Another team that is even more painful to watch is Milan. Their performances are getting worse, and if care is not taken, they may not end up qualifying for the Champions League. Right now, they are on the same points as Roma, and with their current form, it does not give much hope that they will win their next two matches.

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May 12, 2026, 07:30:49 PM

-snip
Why not bet on both BTTS and favorite


No, I’m more comfortable betting on the BTTS option only rather than using a bet builder. At first, I was also confident that Napoli could win, but after thinking about it again, this team no longer has anything to fight for in the standings, so their performance can easily become inconsistent again and create surprises.

And yeah, in the end Napoli really did surprise everyone by losing at home by a narrow margin. That was actually a bit embarrassing.
Such big games are very difficult to predict, you can’t confidently say that one team will emerge the winner, so betting on either number of goals to be scored which is over and under goals, or both teams to score in big matches that you know that all the teams have the quality to score goals.

Relying on any team to score now is very risky, they can disappoint you at anytime just as Napoli did; they are in the best position to win the match on paper,  they are supposed to maintain their second position, and to also prove to Bologna that they are not in the same category anymore, but they failed and lost at home in front of their fans which is surprising. Both team to score was the best option in that match or over 2.5 goals.

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May 12, 2026, 08:24:32 PM

To qualify for the Champions League, I also support Como. They started the competition from the bottom and managed to play well, competing with the top clubs in the Italian Serie A league. Coach Cesc Fabregas was able to make the team very cohesive and compact. Como game was very beautiful to enjoy during the 90 minutes of the match they played. So I really hope that next season Como qualifies and plays in the European Champions League representing the Italian Serie A. Especially considering the point difference between Juventus, AS Roma, and AC Milan is currently quite tight. Como has a very good chance, provided they have to win in the remaining final matches and hope the other team loses. so they can play in the European Champions League.
I do see the point where Como would be very fun to see at UCL but they would be just another team that would be playing 8 games and leave afterwards, because there is no way that we are going to see them be in the top 24 of that group stage.

So maybe another team could be better while they would also have a trouble but at least they would have some experience. Milan for example would not be bad, they could do fine there, still doubt they would be in top 24 but they would at least have a higher chance.

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May 12, 2026, 08:30:03 PM

I do see the point where Como would be very fun to see at UCL but they would be just another team that would be playing 8 games and leave afterwards, because there is no way that we are going to see them be in the top 24 of that group stage.

So maybe another team could be better while they would also have a trouble but at least they would have some experience. Milan for example would not be bad, they could do fine there, still doubt they would be in top 24 but they would at least have a higher chance.

I think Milan are in a really bad way and their form is in freefall. Both Como and Roma deserve a place in the Champions League, and in the end I think they’ll manage to overtake Milan, and I think it’s only fair that Roma get the spot.
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May 12, 2026, 08:39:51 PM

Can't believing, Napoli failed secure the UEFA Champion League spot in this matchday after beating by Bologna and need waiting the upcoming matchday but have to win when facing Pisa, indeed the Scudetto race have been over but the top fourth standings race still interested for Serie A right now because have several club not secure yet with their position awhile.
snip

Napoli should have been able to win this match because they were playing at home and with a more promising performance, but unfortunately they were unable to get a win after Bologna was able to show a more effective game and was able to steal a goal in the final minutes, and this made them unable to get 3 points to secure their position. this means that Juventus, Milan, and Roma are still able to catch Napoli's position, even COMO can still catch up even though their chances are smaller.

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