how long to $100 ? $1000 ?

[Findeton]

Another thing that bothers me is no one at all is talking about MtGox being raided and having their coin and dollar assets confiscated. It would only take one "hoarding law" to do this, or a simple judicial injunction if there was a threat of fraud.

That'll be tested sooner or later. For bitcoins to be secured, MtGox just have to keep their wallets and other user data encripted and with backups. They could seize their bank accounts though.

[1714056657]

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[1714056657]

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[Vladimir]

Using mt gox price data rounded to the nearest dollar starting at 6 April, the best exponential (c + E^(b x)) fit to the data is:
  0.0195987 + E^(0.0399244 x)

Giving this --



X axis is 1 for April 6, 2 for April 7, etc.  The dots are the rounded data points.

Exponential growth is unlikely to continue occurring forever, but that equation reaches $100 at about day 115 (July 30), and $1000 at about day 173 (September 26).  Unlikely though.  

this is fine first post, beats hands down "bitcoin is doomed because of deflation" kind   Thank You.

[Bazil]

For bitcoins to be at $1500 we'd need about 100x the demand. How many people could actually get interested in this until it is used as a legit currency and is accepted in most places.  The only way I see this curve continuing for more than a few more months is if big time companies like Ebay (unlikely for awhile since PP already does like bitcoin) and Amazon start accepting it.  Then it will go from exponential curve to a curve that tracks with the spread of use since all the speculators will have been satisfied.

[jhansen858]

My two cents..

Lets compare to paypal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paypal

Paypal does 70 billion in transactions in a year.

If bitcoin gets the same size then


70,000,000,000 USD           3333.33 USD
-----------------------    =     --------------
  21,000,000 BTC                      1 BTC


$3333.33 USD / BTC

[Vladimir]

It is not quite valid  to compare maximum amount of bitcoins with annual turnover of paypal. Also considering that bitcoin is not only currency but also a store of value, arguably, your math gets even more irrelevant.

[Jaime Frontero]

My two cents..

Lets compare to paypal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paypal

Paypal does 70 billion in transactions in a year.

If bitcoin gets the same size then


70,000,000,000 USD           3333.33 USD
-----------------------    =     --------------
  21,000,000 BTC                      1 BTC


$3333.33 USD / BTC

paypal does 70M transactions in this year.  but there aren't even 7M BTC minted.

so really, your equation works out to over $10,000/BTC.  now.

but once Bitcoin starts eating into paypal's business - soon now... very soon - it will tilt to an even higher exchange rate.

[jhansen858]

I don't see paypal getting much bigger 

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.

[Jaime Frontero]

I don't see paypal getting much bigger 

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.

i guess the issue i see is that there aren't 21 M BTC.

you're comparing the current strength/numbers of paypal to the known numbers but unknown strength of Bitcoin - in the year 2040.

and by the time there are 21 M BTC, either paypal will be dramatically weakened - and possibly out of business - or BTC will mean nothing.

[ColdHardMetal]

I don't see paypal getting much bigger 

Also, my logic is if in my example, 21 million bitcoins were used to buy 70 billion dollars worth of stuff, then 1 bitcoin was used to buy 3333.33 dollars worth of stuff.

If my logic is in error please correct me if i'm wrong.

That doesn't mean each BTC is worth that much. Each coin could have been exchanged 3000 times for a $1. Your number is just a measure of turnover, not value.

[jhansen858]

so there is no equivalence between buying x dollars worth of transactions and x BTC worth of transactions in a year when trying to calculate a stable value for a BTC?

Let me take that question a step further. 

assume: i can buy 1 pound of dog shit for 1 dollar.  (this could be cars if you want)
assume: i transacted 70 billion dollars worth of dog shit last year
assume: the market cap for my dog shit was equal to the total market cap of BTC

is it a logical fallacy to assume that if i then converted all my dollars at that moment to BTC, and 21 million BTC represented 100% of the total dog shit transacted for that year, that my one BTC is worth $3333.33 worth of dog shit?

I'm not trying to beat a dead horse, I'm just trying to think about this logically.  If someone has some better math, my question is, what would the final value of a btc be if the market cap of btc were the same as paypal?  Does anyone here see btc getting significantly bigger then paypal is now?

And i'm only basing my math on 21million because I'm trying to assume an economy that has fully matured.

[max in montreal]

[quote author=darkwon link=topic=11602.msg165849#msg165849 d
Your comparison is flawed, a lot of the movement on Forex is from bots/automated trading and is very high-frequency with tiny amounts, plus Forex has way more trade options. BTC is currently mostly real buyers and sellers trading big chunks, aka. miners and guys that want to invest and hold.

 i am believe , that your comparsion is  started from the easly seeing fact, that course of BTC depends on difficulty. Am i  right ?

I am dont want to harm you, and you should forgive me that  creepy "english" language, that i  am using through decades. At least that lessions of english did not
 just the waste of the time in 1989, when i am become, somehow familiar with it.

 There is indeed corelation between diff and course of btc, but that correlation is not straight. Miners are forced to sell their BTC relativly quickly, to pay their investments in electricity and hardver upgrades. MINERS ARE MAIN SELLERS NOW.

We can just hope that "old BTC" will not ruined marked wright now, and will be putted on market carefully. But we cant depand on this. So any surprise is possible now.

[/quote]

As I understand it, he would like the yardstick to be some sore of goods...like 1 liter of water costs x BTC, compare from that...

[Bazil]

I find it interesting that his graph is under estimating the current price rise.  But his graph predicts a value of 24 million per bit coin by this time next year.  No way that's going to happen unless the speculators go nuts.  I calculated their maximum value to be 1 million per coin without speculators driving it up.  Then again if the economy crashes like a flying cow patty, people will want to move their money to safe places.  Since there will never be more than 21 million bit coins that makes it pretty safe in the long run.  That kind of demand could drive it up to ridicules values.

[paulie_w]

start mass sell

I think large holders should sell to support themselves or the eco-system (by funding startups, campaigns or institutions.)

What do billionaires do with their money: invest or lend.. via a financial institution. I don't think it'd be hard or impossible to create a financial institution. And it certainly wouldn't be impossible to fund a few bitcoin startups.

Has anyone actually started doing this yet?

[denizen]

My original chart from Jun 4 (daily price dots + fitted exponential curve), plus dots for new days since then:

https://i.imgur.com/UiH7z.png

Also consider (log scale):

https://i.imgur.com/9hE3D.png

[TonyHoyle]

We're actually slightly below that curve now ($14 as I write) but not significantly.  Very informative. 

[niemivh]

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

[imperi]

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

We'll probably see it hit $30 in the next few days...

[TraderTimm]

My original chart from Jun 4 (daily price dots + fitted exponential curve), plus dots for new days since then:

(snipped)

Also consider (log scale):

(snipped)

Good charts. I've been looking at the log scale myself, when everyone was screaming bloody murder and I didn't see the current bar close under 15, I knew we had a successful test of the longer-term trendline.

Newbies when trading make the same mistakes, succumb to emotion instead of sticking to a plan. I'm not at all surprised that we are shooting back to previous levels here. Just wait until monday...

[FreeMoney]

This thread seems rather optimistic.  I doubt we'll see $30 again before the end of the year.  So many people were buying in the build up to $30 and then it sat at $30 for hours and hours with someone's darkpool's cashing out.  I'm sure many of those people that bought on the jump from $19 to $31 and the ones that bought at the flat $30 holding will be looking to sell once they can recoup their money back: selling at what they bought for.  For this reason I think the price will at most be $20 - $25 until the year is out, if we are lucky.  Might continue to drop back down to a few bucks.

So how cheaply would you write $35 call options? Would you put some on bitoption.org?