Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Price Analysis 12 July 2017

https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/07/12/bitcoin-price-analysis-12-july-2017/

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[Afrikoin]

Gotta show the measurement of my epenis.

http://www.bit-sim.trade/

HODL ($$$).

great call at the top Kramer

you should start a thread!

 

[Hyena]

erryone expecting a correction down to 1500$ these days...

might not happen. perhaps sideways 1800-2000 range until we meet the long-term uptrend line, then UP

[shannen87]

erryone expecting a correction down to 1500$ these days...

might not happen. perhaps sideways 1800-2000 range until we meet the long-term uptrend line, then UP

Hope alts will follow coz I have a feeling that if BTC explodes to 3-4000 range, alts will DUMP

[Afrikoin]

[york780]

Even gold outperformed us. Sad.

[Dakustaking76]

Hi guys,

So what to do? Sell low And buy lower? Is the new thing?


Any advice its sinking deeper...

[RAJSALLIN]

Even gold outperformed us. Sad.

I don't understand what that gold vs bitcoin chart has to do with anything. So what, gold had a better day then bitcoin. On a day that bitcoin experienced one of its worse days in a long time. Not even sure if the bitcoin/gold correlation is that interesting in the first place. They are in a way both save heavens and have at times been moving in same directions but bitcoin should in the long run way outperform gold. Just as it has in the last 8 years.

[RAJSALLIN]

Hi guys,

So what to do? Sell low And buy lower? Is the new thing?


Any advice its sinking deeper...

I'd say we are getting close to a bottom. Maybe another $100-$200 down. Then we will move up again at least over a shorter time frame. The big test will be if this is a local bottom or a final bottom were the bull continues.

[Majormax]

Hi guys,

So what to do? Sell low And buy lower? Is the new thing?


Any advice its sinking deeper...

I'd say we are getting close to a bottom. Maybe another $100-$200 down. Then we will move up again at least over a shorter time frame. The big test will be if this is a local bottom or a final bottom were the bull continues.

Disagree. The top is in. ~$3000.  It would have been more, but Alts absorbed a lot of the Market Capital on this phase.

The exponential top is crystal clear for anyone to see.

It is just the latest iteration in the adoption curve of BTC and now all Digital Currencies. Look at the long term charts.

The next phase is a fall to around $1000, over the coming months.  (Alts will fare much worse).

The next upswing will not be until late 2018-19.

[RAJSALLIN]

Hi guys,

So what to do? Sell low And buy lower? Is the new thing?


Any advice its sinking deeper...

I'd say we are getting close to a bottom. Maybe another $100-$200 down. Then we will move up again at least over a shorter time frame. The big test will be if this is a local bottom or a final bottom were the bull continues.

Disagree. The top is in. ~$3000.  It would have been more, but Alts absorbed a lot of the Market Capital on this phase.

The exponential top is crystal clear for anyone to see.

It is just the latest iteration in the adoption curve of BTC and now all Digital Currencies. Look at the long term charts.

The next phase is a fall to around $1000, over the coming months.  (Alts will fare much worse).

The next upswing will not be until late 2018-19.

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

[Hyena]

soon BTC gets bigger blocks, segwit gets out of the way, no reason to hold shitcoins such as eth due to bitcoin's scaling issues. as a result btc will continue on its rise while alts go to shit where they belong. the altcoin bubble was only because of the bitcoin scaling issues and blockstreamcore's toxic policies to artificially limit bitcoin's scaling. blockstreamcore has failed, at times of uncertainty expect low prices but the rally will go on in a couple of months. we can call this the consolidation phase for bitcoin. as for most alts it's the bitter end.

[Majormax]

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

Agree. I am looking at the medium to long term. Of course there will be corrections, but the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

This is a repeat of early 2014, the patterns are easy to see. The variation now is that the alts have a larger share of total market capitalisation. Capital will flow back to BTC, but it will not reverse the trend overall.

2 year view, BTC will fall 65% from the peak, alts will fall 70-90%  (with many going to zero ultimately)

[Hyena]

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

Agree. I am looking at the medium to long term. Of course there will be corrections, but the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

for ethereum yes, for bitcoin no
enjoy your lost opportunity

[Majormax]

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

Agree. I am looking at the medium to long term. Of course there will be corrections, but the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

for ethereum yes, for bitcoin no
enjoy your lost opportunity

We will find out !  I will play it as I see it. Maybe I'm not completely right. Timing is also difficult, but I am confident of the big picture.

 If the price were to get decisively above 3000 and stay there, that would indicate that I have to rethink.

[darkangel11]

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

Agree. I am looking at the medium to long term. Of course there will be corrections, but the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

for ethereum yes, for bitcoin no
enjoy your lost opportunity

We will find out !  I will play it as I see it. Maybe I'm not completely right. Timing is also difficult, but I am confident of the big picture.

 If the price were to get decisively above 3000 and stay there, that would indicate that I have to rethink.

And if it went back to 2800? Would that make you reconsider or would you still be bearish?
IMO this correction is not a change of long term trend and won't make us wait a year for anything big. It's just the effect of people withdrawing their funds from exchanges either to their wallets or to fiat as they were told by many, including moderators of this forum.

[jeezy]

What about this one?

[Afrikoin]

look for a confirmed wave 1 - 2 -3 - 4 -5 from the bottom on the lower timeframes

that's when the bottom will be in.

the current bottom at $1830 is not it

[Afrikoin]

Browse Bollinger Bands on a weekly Bitstamp chart and it looks like price is heading down to 20 MA at $1800 to shake out the weak hands. Should get there by August 1. Place your bids.

[Majormax]

There is NO way this will continue falling without a correction all the way to $1000. We are oversold on almost every time frame except the monthly. Like I wrote we are approaching some kind of a bottom. It could be a brief local bottom where we continue downwards or it could be a final bottom before new ath. Time will tell.

Agree. I am looking at the medium to long term. Of course there will be corrections, but the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

for ethereum yes, for bitcoin no
enjoy your lost opportunity

We will find out !  I will play it as I see it. Maybe I'm not completely right. Timing is also difficult, but I am confident of the big picture.

 If the price were to get decisively above 3000 and stay there, that would indicate that I have to rethink.

And if it went back to 2800? Would that make you reconsider or would you still be bearish?
IMO this correction is not a change of long term trend and won't make us wait a year for anything big. It's just the effect of people withdrawing their funds from exchanges either to their wallets or to fiat as they were told by many, including moderators of this forum.

The adoption price curve moves in large waves . Each one ends in an exponential blow-off. The size of the fall off the high, is a good indication that the top is in. There has also been a failed retest, which is even more evidence.

Nothng is 100 % certain, but it's a good guide. Balance of probabilities. I would rather have sold out at 2500-2700, and have to buy back at 3000, than be holding during the long bear wave.