Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus!

[Peter R]

NOTE: THIS IS A REPOST OF THIS SINCE THAT POLL BROKE SOMEHOW.  NO NEED TO REPOST YOUR ADDRESSES IF YOU'VE ALREADY POSTED IN THAT THREAD.  

I am donating 50,000 bits to this experiment (0.05 BTC).  These bits will be divided between 5 lucky participant (chosen at random) if everyone can come to consensus and win!

Here's how the game works:

- It takes 100% consensus on the "100%" option to have a 100% chance of winning
- ...90% consensus on the "90%" option to have a 80% chance of winning
- ...80% consensus on the "80%" option to have a 60% chance of winning
…
- ...50% consensus on the "50%" option to have a  0% chance of winning
- You may change your vote as many times as you like

So basically, you want to come to consensus at as high a % as possible (to earn more) but it's also harder to achieve consensus at that higher level.  What shall you do??

The poll will close when either:

(a) consensus has been reached on any one of the options AND at least 40 votes were cast.
(b) Poll closes August 27, 2015, 03:40:10 AM UTC with no consensus.

If the poll closes with consensus, then I will make a comment in this thread that the poll is officially closed and note the current block height as reported by blockchain.info.  We will pick a random number from the block at a height 2 blocks above this one.  A random number will be calculated like:

   rand = 100% (hash of coinbase TX) / 2^256

If

   rand < % chance of winning

Then five people will win 10,000 bits each.  To pick the winners, I will hash all of the bitcoin addresses with SHA256 and select the five addresses with a hash closest to the hash of the coinbase TX from above.  

OTHER RULES: Post your Bitcoin address in a comment.  This might be a little messy so I have the right to call off the experiment if the number of votes is vastly different than the number of bitcoin addresses posted.  I also have the right to adjust the rules if I realize I screwed something up!!  

LASTLY: If consensus has been reached and I don't notice it, someone please post a comment along with a screen shot.  

[BitProdigy]

1BnAprNUBWyzawRgqusgoP5TgsmbDVdXmH 90% because after 75% threshold is reached we all go to that one and we get over 90% 

[tadakaluri]

I am at 80% and wait for the results.

[knight22]

75%


The link in OP is broken btw

[BitProdigy]

What if there is a rule that after 15 votes the "remove vote" option goes away??

[Peter R]

What if there is a rule that after 15 votes the "remove vote" option goes away??

I'm hoping the poll broke because I edited the Poll Question to clarify how the game worked.  I won't edit the Poll Question this time. 

The link in OP is broken btw

Fixed.  Thank you. 

[Carlton Banks]

The day I started questioning Cryddit's credibility, he opened a thread on the Discussion board giving away some millibit amounts for some triviality only days later. Oh am I typing out loud? Don't mind me...

[Peter R]

90%-ers come join us at 75%!  There are too many trolls that will try to subvert consensus.  Aiming for 90% is too aggressive!!

[Peter R]

Remember: if you want to get a chance of winning, you need to post your address in this thread.  (If you've posted an address in the thread that's now locked, there's no need to repost).

For example, my address is: 1BWZe6XkGLcf6DWC3TFXiEtZmcyAoNq5BW

[BitProdigy]

90%-ers come join us at 75%!  There are too many trolls that will try to subvert consensus.  Aiming for 90% is too aggressive!!

If you watch this video: https://youtu.be/sE7998qfjgk

Antonopoulos explains that any proposal reaching 75% triggers a "grace period" in which all are expected to conform to that proposal, once 95% is reached during that grace period the proposal is put into effect.

The point is a race to 75% and then a consensus to 95% afterwards. Once a proposal has reached 75% it is highly unlikely that some other proposal will afterwards overtake it, but according to Antonopoulos it is possible, an alternative proposal could afterwards reach 75% during the "grace period" triggering the signal to switch to it, but CONSENSUS itself is not reached until 95%.

How bout them apples? Shall I change my vote to 95% now? 

[Peter R]

90%-ers come join us at 75%!  There are too many trolls that will try to subvert consensus.  Aiming for 90% is too aggressive!!

If you watch this video: https://youtu.be/sE7998qfjgk

Antonopoulos explains that any proposal reaching 75% triggers a "grace period" in which all are expected to conform to that proposal, once 95% is reached during that grace period the proposal is put into effect.

The point is a race to 75% and then a consensus to 95% afterwards. Once a proposal has reached 75% it is highly unlikely that some other proposal will afterwards overtake it, but according to Antonopoulos it is possible, an alternative proposal could afterwards reach 75% during the "grace period" triggering the signal to switch to it, but CONSENSUS itself is not reached until 95%.

How bout them apples? Shall I change my vote to 95% now? 

Haha I don't think so.  This is a simplified experiment and we don't have a grace period.  Either we come to consensus by tomorrow, or we forfeit the 50,000 bits.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out but I strongly suspect that we won't be able to come to consensus at 90% because of (a) trolls, and (b) people forgetting to change their votes.  I will move my vote into the largest bin as we get closer to the deadline, but if the largest bin is 90% I don't think we're going to make it!!

TL/DR: join us at 75%!

[BitProdigy]

TL/DR: join us at 75%!

Do not listen to this man, vote for 90%! We can make it and we will have 80% probability of getting free Bitcoins vs [there is no percentage in the OP for 75% so I'm assuming…] a much lower chance of reward for voting for 75%! Vote 90%! 

[Peter R]

TL/DR: join us at 75%!

Do not listen to this man, vote for 90%! We can make it and we will have 80% probability of getting free Bitcoins vs [there is no percentage in the OP for 75% so I'm assuming…] a much lower chance of reward for voting for 75%! Vote 90%!  

That is trickery!  75% consensus has a 50% probability of a payout!!  Is it worth it to risk not achieving consensus just to increase the probability of a payout from 50% to 80%??   

[nickaizoku]

my address : 12iLTrfVpoSGmcLJaZgsed9zBqVKG14vDf
vote for 90%

[trafficolaa]

I am also at 75% because it seems that have good chance with nice probability so which poll will get 40 votes first than this contest will be closed and you will pick winners if that happened before 27th?

[ebliever]

75% means under the rules you only have a 50% chance of getting a payout. Go for 90%.

[knight22]

Switched from 75% to 50%

[bitstealth]

My vote goes to 75%

[adamstgBit]

all go to 90% WE CAN DO IT!

[trafficolaa]

I have changed my mind and switched to 90% as other people are voting to this, come on community and keep voting to 90%, yes we can do this.