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Author Topic: It will soon be 2015.75, whither Bitcoin, etc?  (Read 1654 times)
OROBTC
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September 01, 2015, 12:29:43 AM
 #1

...

I started this thread to look at various ideas that many of us have re Martin Armstrong's predictions of, well, big changes starting about Sept. 30 / Oct 1.  Some of this has been tangentially discussed on other "Economics' threads, but I wanted to start a discussion on short-term investment (and/or preparation) ideas for this key date.

So, what are your thoughts (better: actionable advice) on 2015.75?  I'll toss a couple of practical topics that I suspect would be of interest:

1)  2015.75 is just the start of big changes.  OK, but what happens in the next month - 3 months?

2)  Bitcoin, I know some of you like it mucho, some are very bearish (short-term and even longer)?

3)  Stocks, bonds, gold, etc.

4)  Probabilities or guesses re SHTF, anywhere in the world is fair game for this thread if it matters worldwide...

I welcome your comments!


EDIT: Armstrong postulates the idea of "peak government", either now or later (I have not carefully followed him, especially in the past few days).

So...:

5)  Peak Government (please use easy-to-understand words and arguments for us "C students").
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September 01, 2015, 12:37:10 AM
 #2

I think everything is pointing towards a pretty "fun" September, we'll see interesting movements everywhere, which will fully materialize in October. I would keep my eyes open and honestly im not making any particular prediction. Im ready to buy cheap BTC, thats all.

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luciann
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September 01, 2015, 12:56:03 AM
 #3

I cant see the future, so I cant make any certain scenarios lol.

But, what I can say is, that we still havent seen peoples reaction after the bitx and the new exchanges and new services that its on its way for 2015-16.

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September 01, 2015, 01:58:45 AM
 #4

My plans haven't changed, I hope to scoop up some cheap(er) bitcoin and gold once the panic hits.

Bitcoin I am not sure on, the fork will cause a huge drop but I think it will rise sharply with gold after people lose proper faith in gov, I just hope I can time it right.

I will only hold bitcoin short term due to it's vulnerabilities, I am just hopeful something better comes along before things really spiral down the toilet mid 2017.

I think we will see alot of confusion and scapegoating after Oct 1, you saw it last week, Comparably I think that will be a drop in the ocean to what lies ahead.

Peak gov, you can see it everywhere politicians waging insane wars on civilian privacy in the name of terrorism, civil unrest, extreme changes in weather and revolutions thrown in, we live in fun times.


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September 01, 2015, 03:18:43 AM
 #5

The contagion that will accelerate end of this month, will cause a stampede into sovereign bonds. This will be the final peak in the 30+ year sovereign bond bubble.



Since speculative capital follows speculative capital, this will suck capital out of everything else. Gold and Bitcoin will experience massive short selling because they are small markets easily driven down by such. Thus any sell off to below $700 and $100 will be a very significant buying opportunity for those who are wise.

After Spring 2016, as the bond bubble is clearly crashing, there will be a global stampede into that will envelope into a phase transition high in mid to late 2017 for us dollar and us stocks:

  • us dollar
  • us stocks
  • private assets such as gold and Bitcoin will start to get a bid

The greatest craziest gains for gold and crypto may come after 2017, as the us dollar and us stocks fall into the global collapse and there are no other assets to turn to in order to safeguard capital. By that point, cypto features such as anonymity may be very important.

From 2016 to 2017, the most important features of crypto will be scalability and ability to do safe instant transactions while not centralizing the mining. Bitcoin can't do this.

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September 01, 2015, 04:44:15 AM
 #6

Id sell off most of my bitcoin unless you really dont need the money.

But, as for what I`m doing. I`m just doing whatever I can to earn so if it ever does have any higher value of $200, im better off.

I`m more planned on focusing launching a business then worrying about price points.
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September 01, 2015, 07:29:51 AM
 #7

Well there are many flammable areas in the world and I think that another economic earthquake is bound until 2020 so lets see.

China with its crisis. Europe with Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland that will follow. Now on the top of everything Europe has a major immigration crisis with people coming from Syria. Then you have US with its lying politics, 18 trillion of debt.

Q4 of the 2015 might be a start of another crisis maybe, I mean how long can world patch the holes and keep a balloon inflated.

As for Bitcoin, I am bullish long term but is not a safe investment at all. We have great potential but we are our own worst enemies.
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September 01, 2015, 01:42:26 PM
 #8

I think that most likely nothing serious will happen. Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

Cheesy Stocks/bonds issue? No problem, delay rate hikes and hint at QE4.
Cheesy Some unexpected big default? No problem, big bailout using new gvmt bonds.
Cheesy Shale energy companies can't finance? No problem, introduce some new specially designed "stimulus".
Cheesy ME going nuts? No problem, just keep it out of the news, arm the "moderates" and bomb everyone else.
Cheesy China default cascade? No problem, make a law that bans big defaults, zombify everything.
Cheesy Greece again? No problem, squeeze them out a little and then prepare a deal.
Cheesy Sudden Lehman-like default? No problem, learned the lesson, bail them out this time.
Cheesy Bitcoin fork war? No problem, wait it out and they will calm down.

12c3DnfNrfgnnJ3RovFpaCDGDeS6LMkfTN "who lives by QE dies by QE"
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September 01, 2015, 01:55:21 PM
 #9

I think there will be more unrest in general also as global warming hits new heights and people start fighting over water as well as oil. People though are waking up everywhere and the need to diversify whatever assets and capital they got will arise so there will be a mixture of new people buying into bullion and bitcoin/cryptocurrencies. I also see a lot more innovation coming as well, because the need to survive as a species will take precedent, but things might get worse globally with civil and economic unrest before they get better.

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September 01, 2015, 10:03:54 PM
 #10

Here's my reading list to keep oneself updated, in order of decreasing relevance

Looking to review Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.
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September 02, 2015, 01:53:57 AM
 #11

as global warming hits new heights and people start fighting over water as well as oil

Peak oil and global warming nutcases indicate this thread has a very low information content.

There are a lot of really stupid people in the world, and I can't teach all of them.

She or he hasn't apparently noticed the price of oil is collapsing because there is too much oil. Global warming is a hoax and junk science. But this idiot will be defiant.

Westerners preoccupied on nonsense while their future burns to the ground because of socialism (and their belief in nonsense).

Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

You don't seem to understand that there always comes a Minsky Moment. Has always been that case through out all human history. It happens in our global economy (since QE ended up abroad with a carry trade) when the marginal utility of debt goes negative globally. That moment has arrived.

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September 02, 2015, 03:30:16 AM
 #12

Since everyone's expecting "something big" to happen around/after September 30/October 1, I predict NOTHING will happen.

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September 02, 2015, 04:26:51 AM
 #13

I think that most likely nothing serious will happen. Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

Cheesy Stocks/bonds issue? No problem, delay rate hikes and hint at QE4.
Cheesy Some unexpected big default? No problem, big bailout using new gvmt bonds.
Cheesy Shale energy companies can't finance? No problem, introduce some new specially designed "stimulus".
Cheesy ME going nuts? No problem, just keep it out of the news, arm the "moderates" and bomb everyone else.
Cheesy China default cascade? No problem, make a law that bans big defaults, zombify everything.
Cheesy Greece again? No problem, squeeze them out a little and then prepare a deal.
Cheesy Sudden Lehman-like default? No problem, learned the lesson, bail them out this time.
Cheesy Bitcoin fork war? No problem, wait it out and they will calm down.


your the one that does dem 4chan buttcoin posts ayy
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September 02, 2015, 06:49:18 AM
 #14


Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

You don't seem to understand that there always comes a Minsky Moment. Has always been that case through out all human history. It happens in our global economy (since QE ended up abroad with a carry trade) when the marginal utility of debt goes negative globally. That moment has arrived.
Nope. Some MOAR QE and it's fixed Grin . You can be the smartest genius, TPTB, but you still can't predict when this Minsky Moment will happen.

12c3DnfNrfgnnJ3RovFpaCDGDeS6LMkfTN "who lives by QE dies by QE"
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September 02, 2015, 08:37:21 AM
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Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

You don't seem to understand that there always comes a Minsky Moment. Has always been that case through out all human history. It happens in our global economy (since QE ended up abroad with a carry trade) when the marginal utility of debt goes negative globally. That moment has arrived.
Nope. Some MOAR QE and it's fixed Grin . You can be the smartest genius, TPTB, but you still can't predict when this Minsky Moment will happen.


Honestly I've never seen someone toss so much information into and and every argument while all the time they couldn't possibly be more wrong.

I mean, the single time he's been right so far was predicting the price of btc would go down from 1k USD.

Duh. Of course that was going to happen.

Are we even sure he's not planted here for misinfo?

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September 03, 2015, 03:07:05 AM
 #16

Honestly I've never seen someone toss so much information into and and every argument while all the time they couldn't possibly be more wrong.

I mean, the single time he's been right so far was predicting the price of btc would go down from 1k USD.

Duh. Of course that was going to happen.

Are we even sure he's not planted here for misinfo?


Since everyone's expecting "something big" to happen around/after September 30/October 1, I predict NOTHING will happen.


Even if markets face a significant decline, they will relase the Bullard or hint at QE4 and everything is fixed.

You don't seem to understand that there always comes a Minsky Moment. Has always been that case through out all human history. It happens in our global economy (since QE ended up abroad with a carry trade) when the marginal utility of debt goes negative globally. That moment has arrived.
Nope. Some MOAR QE and it's fixed Grin . You can be the smartest genius, TPTB, but you still can't predict when this Minsky Moment will happen.

More idiots(monkeys clanging on pots with utensils) that will need to lick my butt hole in another few months. So many have gone before them and so many stand in line to be next.

Who else wants to add their username to the idiotbaboon list?

P.S. I shouldn't dignify them by expending my time in a response. But hey, it is so much fun later when they crawl under rocks to hide from their shame. I try to help everyone, I don't get paid for the vast amount of research and information I compiled on this forum. These obstructionists deserve their fate. They don't add any informational value.

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September 04, 2015, 02:41:45 AM
 #17

...

Well, it looks like the UN has its own plans, starting in September 2015...:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/2030-agenda-month-un-launches-blueprint-new-world-order-help-pope

Snip:

Did you know that the UN is planning to launch a “new universal agenda” for humanity in September 2015?  That phrase does not come from me – it is actually right in the very first paragraph of the official document that every UN member nation will formally approve at a conference later this month.  The entire planet is going to be committing to work toward 17 sustainable development goals and 169 specific sustainable development targets, and yet there has been almost a total media blackout about this here in the United States.

More (dates in bold mine):

...dream of a world of peace and dignity for all,” according to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
 
“Today is the start of a new era. We have travelled a long way together to reach this turning point,” declared Mr. Ban, recounting the path the international community has taken over the 15 years since the adoption of the landmark Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) towards crafting a set of new, post-2015 sustainability goals that will aim to ensure the long-term well-being of our planet and its people.
 
With world leaders expected to adopt the text at a 25-27 September summit in New York, the UN chief said Agenda 2030 aims high, seeking to put people at the centre of development; foster human well-being, prosperity, peace and justice on a healthy planet and pursue respect for the human rights of all people and gender equality.


Groan, look at all the buzz words...:

The heart of the 2030 Agenda is a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals…

Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries

Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*

Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development



Government (at the international level) is not dead...
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September 04, 2015, 02:55:13 AM
 #18


The heart of the 2030 Agenda is a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals…




Government (at the international level) is not dead...

looks like it's been copied straight out of the communist manifesto  Roll Eyes

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September 04, 2015, 03:09:00 AM
 #19

...

LOL. I just saw this piece at ZH that somewhat contradicts my piece just above:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/peak-obedience

Maybe Peak Obedience is upon us.  An over-general TL;DR version of the story is that blind obedience is brittle...  

Snip:

Obedience turns the best parts of you off. It degrades and kills your creativity; it undercuts your effectiveness and especially your sense of satisfaction.

Hey, I am just a reporter here, don't shoot me!


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Yeah, trollerc, the "new universal agenda" sure does seem right out of the NWO and all their usual allies & "useful idiots".
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September 04, 2015, 12:23:44 PM
 #20

I'm sure the Syrian, Iraqi, Libyan, Yemeni, Somali, Donbass people are worried about UN's empty talk. Roll Eyes

Let's end poverty! Yay! "Affordable" energy for everyone! Yay!

12c3DnfNrfgnnJ3RovFpaCDGDeS6LMkfTN "who lives by QE dies by QE"
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