Diff thread sept 4th. to sept 17th Picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

New thread. Just setting it up.  last thread is here  jumps was 4.98%


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1159269.msg12325943#msg12325943


Picks start at block 300.

So we cracked 400 ph this is  about 380,000 s-5's  or around  84,000 s-7's

So for us to jump 5% for a second time  in a row  4200 s-7's need to go on line.



372961 was the starting block for this adjustment.  I could be off 1 block here.

[1714998715]

1714998715

[valkir]

+5% and right now +7% ouch that's hard! 

[notlist3d]

+5% and right now +7% ouch that's hard! 

I think some machines are kicking on.  I was afraid of this.  Last week was high and not fun for us.

Now this possibly even higher looks like someone is making something.   I wonder if it truly is S7's if so they sure know how to make the units quickly.

[Dexter770221]

....
So for us to jump 5% for a second time  in a row  4200 s-7's need to go on line.
.....

Very probable that it will happen.
But more interesting times ahead. In about two months we should see more +%.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-completion-16nm-bitcoin-mining-asic/

[jonnybravo0311]

Well, the conspiracy theorist in me says the increased hash is directly from Bitmain turning on those S7s in their data centers.  We were certainly right that the S5+ was nothing more than them liquidating their remaining stock of BM1384 chips.  Imagine the same form factor with the BM1385 chips.  That'd be about 14.6TH/s for 3630W.  Pretty sweet.

Alright, so this upcoming difficulty adjustment is likely going to follow the 5% trend according to my tea leaves and chicken entrails.  Also, Marty McFly paid me a visit earlier and told me so.  I tried to steal the DeLorean, but no such luck - he said he knew I was going to try.  Stupid time travelers... think they know everything.

[mwizard]

There is another possibility other than the Bitmain S7 causing the increase in network hash rate.

It is 6 months since KNC announced the tapeout of their 16 nm chips.  KNC stated in June that they had the 16nm physical chips and that they worked.  Is it possible the hashrate increase is coming from these new chips?  How would we know.  KNC were the first with 20nm Bitcoin miners so they have a track record of leading bitcoin technology.

See for example http://www.kncminer.com/blog/newsarchive
http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-deploys-next-generation-16nm-bitcoin-asic/

Based on the KNC 0.07 Joules/Gigahash figures a typical 1,600 Watt 16nm miner would run at potentially up to 20 Terrahash/s.  This is better than 3 times the performance of an S7.

Just a thought on what is coming , or may even be here now.

[philipma1957]

next two jumps are important.  two 5% jumps plus the one we had would be a trend that the bigger builders all have better chips and are all retooling. If this occurs we will be at 450ph by  oct 1st and we will then see if the big builders decide to slow growth down again like they did last year.

Or and here is the or do they all say f it and try to out build each other.   I believe they will get us at 60-65 diff and 450-500 ph and then go flat.

Should be fun to watch.

[Mikestang]

It's going to be a wild winter, I wonder when we'll see a negative diff again?

[alh]

It's going to be a wild winter, I wonder when we'll see a negative diff again?

The rainbow colored Unicorn will personally deliver the notice to you..... 

Actually probably sooner than that, but not a lot.

[mwizard]

next two jumps are important.  two 5% jumps plus the one we had would be a trend that the bigger builders all have better chips and are all retooling. If this occurs we will be at 450ph by  oct 1st and we will then see if the big builders decide to slow growth down again like they did last year.

Or and here is the or do they all say f it and try to out build each other.   I believe they will get us at 60-65 diff and 450-500 ph and then go flat.

I suspect it is much more likely we will get to 100 diff and possibly 1,000 ph before growth goes flat next year.

Both KNC and Bitfury are expecting 16 nm chips to be at 0.07 Joules/Gigahash.  This means miners with at least 3 times better electrical efficiency than current 28nm miners.  

I know there is considerable daily statistical variation but over the last few days the KNCMiners pool seems to have grown considerable.  It will be interesting to see how KNCminers and Bitfury change over the next few months.  See
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/30d?c=m&t=a

Another period of change is coming whether we like it or not.




  

[VirosaGITS]

I hope not. 1k PH would be insane growth. I can't imagine it happening at all.

If it happened it would really suck because i very much doubt BTC would go up to 500$.

[philipma1957]

next two jumps are important.  two 5% jumps plus the one we had would be a trend that the bigger builders all have better chips and are all retooling. If this occurs we will be at 450ph by  oct 1st and we will then see if the big builders decide to slow growth down again like they did last year.

Or and here is the or do they all say f it and try to out build each other.   I believe they will get us at 60-65 diff and 450-500 ph and then go flat.

I suspect it is much more likely we will get to 100 diff and possibly 1,000 ph before growth goes flat next year.

Both KNC and Bitfury are expecting 16 nm chips to be at 0.07 Joules/Gigahash.  This means miners with at least 3 times better electrical efficiency than current 28nm miners.  

I know there is considerable daily statistical variation but over the last few days the KNCMiners pool seems to have grown considerable.  It will be interesting to see how KNCminers and Bitfury change over the next few months.  See
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/30d?c=m&t=a

Another period of change is coming whether we like it or not.




  

We are not going to get to 100 diff and  1000 ph .  before the ½ .

 unless price jacks upwards   quite a bit.

[mwizard]

We are not going to get to 100 diff and  1000 ph .  before the ½ .

 unless price jacks upwards   quite a bit.

We are already close to a 60 diff and likely to go over 60 at the next adjustment.  I don't see any reason why there cannot be growth to 100 by the middle of next year even at the current Bitcoin price.  There are 23 adjustments until then.

Mining, and the push for faster miners,  will continue before and after the halving.

[philipma1957]

We are not going to get to 100 diff and  1000 ph .  before the ½ .

 unless price jacks upwards   quite a bit.

We are already close to a 60 diff and likely to go over 60 at the next adjustment.  I don't see any reason why there cannot be growth to 100 by the middle of next year even at the current Bitcoin price.  There are 23 adjustments until then.

Mining, and the push for faster miners,  will continue before and after the halving.

you don't understand why a builder with 10% of the hash loses money by expanding to 15% of the hash you think he makes more  money if he does that.

the problem is 4-6 guys all have 10 to 15% of the hash each.  they all can build bp and then the other 4-6 guys match them.

So what hey have been doing is swapping  gear with out really expand hash by a ton.

they have s-3's at .75watts  they have s-5s at .50watts  now they have s-7s at .25watts

so they ⅓ their power   so many think they  will 3x their hash .  if the top 6 builders all do this they all gain nothing and they spent money to make the gear.

so they try to ⅓ their power  and 1.5x or 1.2x their hash.

if the top 6 builders do this.  they keep the same share of the network and they spend less on power.

This is what has stopped the crazy growth the last year.

unless your gear is god like say .01 watts a gh and really cheap to build expansion of hash matching your efficiency gain is a loser economically.

so s-5 at .5 and s-7 at .25  for example does not pay to 2x the hash power
 if the other builders can match you.  but if antminer ½ the power and 1.25x the hash   and are matched by the other builders  antminer makes more money.

this is very simple math.

[mwizard]

you don't understand why a builder with 10% of the hash loses money by expanding to 15% of the hash you think he makes more  money if he does that.

the problem is 4-6 guys all have 10 to 15% of the hash each.  they all can build bp and then the other 4-6 guys match them.

So what hey have been doing is swapping  gear with out really expand hash by a ton.

they have s-3's at .75watts  they have s-5s at .50watts  now they have s-7s at .25watts

so they ⅓ their power   so many think they  will 3x their hash .  if the top 6 builders all do this they all gain nothing and they spent money to make the gear.

so they try to ⅓ their power  and 1.5x or 1.2x their hash.

if the top 6 builders do this.  they keep the same share of the network and they spend less on power.

This is what has stopped the crazy growth the last year.

unless your gear is god like say .01 watts a gh and really cheap to build expansion of hash matching your efficiency gain is a loser economically.

so s-5 at .5 and s-7 at .25  for example does not pay to 2x the hash power
 if the other builders can match you.  but if antminer ½ the power and 1.25x the hash   and are matched by the other builders  antminer makes more money.

this is very simple math.

I believe there are several errors in your analysis.  You have assumed everyone pays a similar amount for their miners, has similar costs and does not try to drive others out of business.

1) Not all miners pay the same for their miners.  The mining hardware with the highest efficiency is not likely to be sold to the public.  It is more economic for the manufacturer to keep it to themselves and mine themselves. This is what KNC and Bitfury do.  They manufacture their own cheap hardware and do not sell to to the public.  It is in their interest to increase their hash rate as it increases their profits.

2) For similar reasons miners in areas with the cheapest electricity will try to maximize their hash rates.  Anyone who pays more than about $0.05 per kWh is likely to be ultimately driven out of the mining business.

3) Finally you have assumed people would co-operate if they all had the same costs.  But people are not always that rational in an unregulated market.  See the Tragedy of the Commons.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The entire mining game is a zero sum game.  There is only a fixed amount of money available from Bitcoin mining.  

The best way to maximize your profits is to not share your competitive advantage and to keep your costs below your competitors.  Ideally you would like most of your competitors to give up and leave the market.

So I expect the battle between the miners to continue and the hash rate to continue to increase for some time yet.  



 

[VirosaGITS]

you don't understand why a builder with 10% of the hash loses money by expanding to 15% of the hash you think he makes more  money if he does that.

the problem is 4-6 guys all have 10 to 15% of the hash each.  they all can build bp and then the other 4-6 guys match them.

So what hey have been doing is swapping  gear with out really expand hash by a ton.

they have s-3's at .75watts  they have s-5s at .50watts  now they have s-7s at .25watts

so they ⅓ their power   so many think they  will 3x their hash .  if the top 6 builders all do this they all gain nothing and they spent money to make the gear.

so they try to ⅓ their power  and 1.5x or 1.2x their hash.

if the top 6 builders do this.  they keep the same share of the network and they spend less on power.

This is what has stopped the crazy growth the last year.

unless your gear is god like say .01 watts a gh and really cheap to build expansion of hash matching your efficiency gain is a loser economically.

so s-5 at .5 and s-7 at .25  for example does not pay to 2x the hash power
 if the other builders can match you.  but if antminer ½ the power and 1.25x the hash   and are matched by the other builders  antminer makes more money.

this is very simple math.

I believe there are several errors in your analysis.  You have assumed everyone pays a similar amount for their miners, has similar costs and does not try to drive others out of business.

1) Not all miners pay the same for their miners.  The mining hardware with the highest efficiency is not likely to be sold to the public.  It is more economic for the manufacturer to keep it to themselves and mine themselves. This is what KNC and Bitfury do.  They manufacture their own cheap hardware and do not sell to to the public.  It is in their interest to increase their hash rate as it increases their profits.

2) For similar reasons miners in areas with the cheapest electricity will try to maximize their hash rates.  Anyone who pays more than about $0.05 per kWh is likely to be ultimately driven out of the mining business.

3) Finally you have assumed people would co-operate if they all had the same costs.  But people are not always that rational in an unregulated market.  See the Tragedy of the Commons.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The entire mining game is a zero sum game.  There is only a fixed amount of money available from Bitcoin mining.  

The best way to maximize your profits is to not share your competitive advantage and to keep your costs below your competitors.  Ideally you would like most of your competitors to give up and leave the market.

So I expect the battle between the miners to continue and the hash rate to continue to increase for some time yet.  

I think there is a flaw in your counter analysis, because in reality, if a side push for tripling their hash, the other sides will keep the pace and in the end they all undermined themselves. And this is not speaking of the production limitations that simply cannot be overcomed in such a small time span. So no, we won't see 1000PH in a few months.

It's not that easy to produce 2 billions chip at the technological edge. The more you try to get in a small time span, the higher to production cost. Exponentially.

[notlist3d]

you don't understand why a builder with 10% of the hash loses money by expanding to 15% of the hash you think he makes more  money if he does that.

the problem is 4-6 guys all have 10 to 15% of the hash each.  they all can build bp and then the other 4-6 guys match them.

So what hey have been doing is swapping  gear with out really expand hash by a ton.

they have s-3's at .75watts  they have s-5s at .50watts  now they have s-7s at .25watts

so they ⅓ their power   so many think they  will 3x their hash .  if the top 6 builders all do this they all gain nothing and they spent money to make the gear.

so they try to ⅓ their power  and 1.5x or 1.2x their hash.

if the top 6 builders do this.  they keep the same share of the network and they spend less on power.

This is what has stopped the crazy growth the last year.

unless your gear is god like say .01 watts a gh and really cheap to build expansion of hash matching your efficiency gain is a loser economically.

so s-5 at .5 and s-7 at .25  for example does not pay to 2x the hash power
 if the other builders can match you.  but if antminer ½ the power and 1.25x the hash   and are matched by the other builders  antminer makes more money.

this is very simple math.

I believe there are several errors in your analysis.  You have assumed everyone pays a similar amount for their miners, has similar costs and does not try to drive others out of business.

1) Not all miners pay the same for their miners.  The mining hardware with the highest efficiency is not likely to be sold to the public.  It is more economic for the manufacturer to keep it to themselves and mine themselves. This is what KNC and Bitfury do.  They manufacture their own cheap hardware and do not sell to to the public.  It is in their interest to increase their hash rate as it increases their profits.

2) For similar reasons miners in areas with the cheapest electricity will try to maximize their hash rates.  Anyone who pays more than about $0.05 per kWh is likely to be ultimately driven out of the mining business.

3) Finally you have assumed people would co-operate if they all had the same costs.  But people are not always that rational in an unregulated market.  See the Tragedy of the Commons.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The entire mining game is a zero sum game.  There is only a fixed amount of money available from Bitcoin mining.  

The best way to maximize your profits is to not share your competitive advantage and to keep your costs below your competitors.  Ideally you would like most of your competitors to give up and leave the market.

So I expect the battle between the miners to continue and the hash rate to continue to increase for some time yet.  

With keeping the company needs to build a data center.  These are not cheap for miners.   The cooling system is much more then standard server data center.

So there is some big costs of keeping them only.  Also if they can make decent sales to public it brings down price to produce and the company could keep miners even cheaper.  So I still see advantages to selling to public as long as they make profit.

[philipma1957]

you don't understand why a builder with 10% of the hash loses money by expanding to 15% of the hash you think he makes more  money if he does that.

the problem is 4-6 guys all have 10 to 15% of the hash each.  they all can build bp and then the other 4-6 guys match them.

So what hey have been doing is swapping  gear with out really expand hash by a ton.

they have s-3's at .75watts  they have s-5s at .50watts  now they have s-7s at .25watts

so they ⅓ their power   so many think they  will 3x their hash .  if the top 6 builders all do this they all gain nothing and they spent money to make the gear.

so they try to ⅓ their power  and 1.5x or 1.2x their hash.

if the top 6 builders do this.  they keep the same share of the network and they spend less on power.

This is what has stopped the crazy growth the last year.

unless your gear is god like say .01 watts a gh and really cheap to build expansion of hash matching your efficiency gain is a loser economically.

so s-5 at .5 and s-7 at .25  for example does not pay to 2x the hash power
 if the other builders can match you.  but if antminer ½ the power and 1.25x the hash   and are matched by the other builders  antminer makes more money.

this is very simple math.

I believe there are several errors in your analysis.  You have assumed everyone pays a similar amount for their miners, has similar costs and does not try to drive others out of business.

1) Not all miners pay the same for their miners.  The mining hardware with the highest efficiency is not likely to be sold to the public.  It is more economic for the manufacturer to keep it to themselves and mine themselves. This is what KNC and Bitfury do.  They manufacture their own cheap hardware and do not sell to to the public.  It is in their interest to increase their hash rate as it increases their profits.

2) For similar reasons miners in areas with the cheapest electricity will try to maximize their hash rates.  Anyone who pays more than about $0.05 per kWh is likely to be ultimately driven out of the mining business.

3) Finally you have assumed people would co-operate if they all had the same costs.  But people are not always that rational in an unregulated market.  See the Tragedy of the Commons.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The entire mining game is a zero sum game.  There is only a fixed amount of money available from Bitcoin mining.  

The best way to maximize your profits is to not share your competitive advantage and to keep your costs below your competitors.  Ideally you would like most of your competitors to give up and leave the market.

So I expect the battle between the miners to continue and the hash rate to continue to increase for some time yet.



 

I don't assume that every new miner is equal in cost.--- See my first bold.

There has not been a battle between the building miners for the last year.--- Hash rate has been flat for quite a while.--- This is about builders mining not builders seller as spondoolies and bitmaintech did have a selling war Last DEC/JAN.  That war crashed price of BTC down to 180 for a while

Now Lets be frank I am basing this on Sept/Oct 2014 to July/Aug 2015.

This means Anything after that can be new.  But no builder will attempt to crush another builder at self mining unless they have a god-like chip. With a monster edge. And it needs to be cheap to build and run. And to try to kill your competitors off now if you have the chip of doom is moron just wait for the ½ ing and the summer heat of 2016 then hit them with the chip of death.



So to say mining is an end game is not applicable at all as the reason to ramp your gear up like mad.

[notlist3d]

Night Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    61,028,387,965 (+7.15%)
Adjust time:    After 1898 Blocks, About 12.9 days
Hashrate(?):    418,800,149 GH/s

So not looking good 2 high weeks in a row.

As far as price around 229 so really no big movement.  Some really needs to change either price of BTC or lower changes.  I think I'm fine through winter no matter most changes.  But if we have these future mining will be much harder for me.

[ezeminer]

Bitcoin got into those special brownies and wants to go to the moon on hashrate and difficulty.

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin got into those special brownies and wants to go to the moon on hashrate and difficulty.

More like bitmain got those special machines to start spitting out S7's I think.  And were just on batch one.  There will be more to come.

Only other big thing is bitmain could be putting S7's in the S5 used miner slots they had after selling in their own data  centers.  So hard to know how many are internal S7's.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.

[kromtar]

If they already got chips that are 2x or more energy efficient then the diff will eventualy go 2x or more, and if bitcoin price go up the increase in diff will be even more.

[jonnybravo0311]

Since the diff changed, we've seen 171 blocks.  It's been 28 hours, 3 minutes since the diff change.  This means we're averaging 9.842 minutes per block since the adjustment.  Following that through, it means we're averaging 146.3 blocks every 24 hours... so just a tad over the expected 144.

[DanielRo]

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

[philipma1957]

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

well say 2000 of them  so 2000 x 1.7 = 3.4ph or just under 1%

my guess is bitmaintech swapped a shit ton of s-7's for s-5's

 2000 s-7's in = 9.5 ph  take 4000 s-5's out = 4.6ph  net gain is 4.9 ph

2x that

4000 s-7's in = 19ph take 8000 s-5's out = 9.2 ph  net gain is 9.8 ph

So say 3.4 ph in sfards

say 9.8 ph in s-7s'

some bit fury

some knc

and 20ph is added on for +5%

I think we get this 3 times in a row and then go flat.

[Tupsu]

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

well say 2000 of them  so 2000 x 1.7 = 3.4ph or just under 1%

my guess is bitmaintech swapped a shit ton of s-7's for s-5's

 2000 s-7's in = 9.5 ph  take 4000 s-5's out = 4.6ph  net gain is 4.9 ph

2x that

4000 s-7's in = 19ph take 8000 s-5's out = 9.2 ph  net gain is 9.8 ph

So say 3.4 ph in sfards

say 9.8 ph in s-7s'

some bit fury

some knc

and 20ph is added on for +5%

I think we get this 3 times in a row and then go flat.

AntPool Hashrate  is still 69.62 PH/s

[philipma1957]

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

well say 2000 of them  so 2000 x 1.7 = 3.4ph or just under 1%

my guess is bitmaintech swapped a shit ton of s-7's for s-5's

 2000 s-7's in = 9.5 ph  take 4000 s-5's out = 4.6ph  net gain is 4.9 ph

2x that

4000 s-7's in = 19ph take 8000 s-5's out = 9.2 ph  net gain is 9.8 ph

So say 3.4 ph in sfards

say 9.8 ph in s-7s'

some bit fury

some knc

and 20ph is added on for +5%

I think we get this 3 times in a row and then go flat.

AntPool Hashrate  is still 69.62 PH/s

They have more hashrate then what is on that pool.

[DanielRo]

I may guess that a few thousands of Sfards machines are online.

well say 2000 of them  so 2000 x 1.7 = 3.4ph or just under 1%

my guess is bitmaintech swapped a shit ton of s-7's for s-5's

 2000 s-7's in = 9.5 ph  take 4000 s-5's out = 4.6ph  net gain is 4.9 ph

2x that

4000 s-7's in = 19ph take 8000 s-5's out = 9.2 ph  net gain is 9.8 ph

So say 3.4 ph in sfards

say 9.8 ph in s-7s'

some bit fury

some knc

and 20ph is added on for +5%

I think we get this 3 times in a row and then go flat.

You may be right about Bitmaintech.
Last year when I've first bought a scrypt miner from Zeusminer there were many Chinese entrepreneurs who made custom orders. They were the first who received the products, and they've bought a lot of products.
If the situation is the same with Bitmaintech, if they are assembling S7 right now the first clients will be from China. S7 is the best product in power consumption so I assume there are thousands of Chinese orders.
The increased hash rate wont be found in Bitmaintech pool, it will be on the other Chinese pools. 

[Tupsu]

AntPool Hashrate  is still 69.62 PH/s

They have more hashrate then what is on that pool.

Explain why it is beneficial for them?

Too much profit, and they want to share it with the another pool owner?

They owned really  another pool,  but this is for solo mining. 
Total over 14.00 PH/s
https://www.antpool.com/poolStatsRankings.htm

 Any Antpool user can join it.

[philipma1957]

AntPool Hashrate  is still 69.62 PH/s

They have more hashrate then what is on that pool.

Explain why it is beneficial for them?

Too much profit, and they want to share it with the another pool owner?

They owned really  another pool,  but this is for solo mining.  
Total over 14.00 PH/s
https://www.antpool.com/poolStatsRankings.htm

 Any Antpool user can join it.

  I was referring to the  solo pool and I was also referring to

hashnest pacmic v3  which is 24ph.

so the is 68 ph + 14 ph + 24 ph = 106ph

most of the current rise is due to pacmic v3.

  I also believe they use s-7's and charge buyers like it is an s-5  so 23826 th in contracts  Is just about the diff jump and they are fucking whaling on it.

Since they charge you based on s-5 power rates while they run s-7's (this is my guess)

 but if I were them  I would be doing it.

[VirosaGITS]

This mechanic of charging at S5 prices while running S7 or something unknown is also probably applicable to most hashrate on hashnest. Milk users at 97% of Revenue/Cost while in actuality they're running some other(more efficient) hardware while the obsolete hardware are boxed in storage somewhere. Pretty smart.

[Tupsu]

  I was referring to the  solo pool and I was also referring to

hashnest pacmic v3  which is 24ph.

so the is 68 ph + 14 ph + 24 ph = 106ph

most of the current rise is due to pacmic v3.

  I also believe they use s-7's and charge buyers like it is an s-5  so 23826 th in contracts  Is just about the diff jump and they are fucking whaling on it.

Since they charge you based on s-5 power rates while they run s-7's (this is my guess)

 but if I were them  I would be doing it.

If You  believe  that pacmic v3 is real mining farm with Antminer S5,  or that they are pacmic S5 mining  in  another pool,  then you have to be disappointed.  It's just a BTC loan paying back with  weird counting.

All pacmic  payments are counted  by Antpool  blocks timing and blocks number.

The more blocks in Antpool  get found, then more  profitable pacmic is for Bitmain.

This mechanic of charging at S5 prices while running S7 or something unknown is also probably applicable to most hashrate on hashnest. Milk users at 97% of Revenue/Cost while in actuality they're running some other(more efficient) hardware while the obsolete hardware are boxed in storage somewhere. Pretty smart.

So will produce free electricity. Find one sucker who will pay for electricity and put profits in your pocket.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks

so 261 vs 242 = +7.85%

bitcoinwisdom is +7.09%

picks open in seven hours or so.

My pick will be   -1.01% to -1.25%  not much chance but I am stubborn.

[alh]

BTC price is a up a bit as well. I expect this will tend to support the increase in difficulty for this round. I am a firm believer that difficulty follows price.

[notlist3d]

It is nice to see it jump into the 240's on BTC.  But the difficulty change still scares me.

I was scared enough I sold my beloved 1.5T Dragon.  I was holding onto it as it's so dang heavy shipping is not cheap.   On the 1.5 they really beefed up the heatsinks vs the 1T dragon.   But it is gone.

I am now pretty much officially ready for all of winter mining (assuming it does not go crazy 5-7 per week).   I just hope this is a big batch of S7's and will slow down after initial batch.

[notlist3d]

Morning Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    61,061,192,910 (+7.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1696 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    423,943,825 GH/s

It's looking like this week is going to hurt.   Price is doing better at around 240.  So good and bad.

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957

[notlist3d]

6.51 - 6.75

Thanks for doing it once again!

[Kexkey]

6.76 to 7.00%

That will hurt.   

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957




+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey

[zebedee]

+7.51 to 7.75 for me thx

[torepia]

"As the chilly all-natural Arctic cooling system descends on us we're tuning up our new 16NM Solar chip a little bit "
https://twitter.com/kncminer/status/640519559431233536

Let the race begin.

[notlist3d]

"As the chilly all-natural Arctic cooling system descends on us we're tuning up our new 16NM Solar chip a little bit "
https://twitter.com/kncminer/status/640519559431233536

Let the race begin.

Not great news as we likely will never see any KNC chips in hobby miner hands.  I think this will be internal but guess we will see later down to road.

Next is SP, Innosilicon, who know when they start making machines with newer chips.  But that with bitmain is at least four chip makers all who will raise the difficulty... hope it spreads out some at least.

*Edit KNC has fell back quite a bit from that pic they showed https://blockchain.info/pools

[philipma1957]

http://min=7241 Best Cloud Mining Website / Up to free 0.5 BTC Bonus with the Free Trial & Instant Withdraw!

stay off my thread.

note I killed his link and deleted him and posted a neg trust.

[philipma1957]

Best Cloud Mining Website / Up to free 0.5 BTC Bonus with the Free Trial & Instant Withdraw!

fuck off pig.

And he posted again so another delete

[suchmoon]

"As the chilly all-natural Arctic cooling system descends on us we're tuning up our new 16NM Solar chip a little bit "
https://twitter.com/kncminer/status/640519559431233536

Let the race begin.

Not great news as we likely will never see any KNC chips in hobby miner hands.  I think this will be internal but guess we will see later down to road.

Next is SP, Innosilicon, who know when they start making machines with newer chips.  But that with bitmain is at least four chip makers all who will raise the difficulty... hope it spreads out some at least.

*Edit KNC has fell back quite a bit from that pic they showed https://blockchain.info/pools

KnC are masters of vaporware. I wouldn't trust any of their press releases.

Bitmain (we can touch their hardware) and to some extent BitFury (blockchain shows them mining quite a bit) might actually have something, the rest of them should be in the "believe it when I see it" category.

[HerbPean]

i will take +3,01% - +3,25%

Thanks !

Herb

[VirosaGITS]

Well, look like opening guessed are betting pretty high. I guess betting for negative isin't going to take us anywhere for a while. I was hoping this wouldn't happen before S7 actually got out.

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957


+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey

+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

[notlist3d]

Well, look like opening guessed are betting pretty high. I guess betting for negative isin't going to take us anywhere for a while. I was hoping this wouldn't happen before S7 actually got out.

It is likely S7's are being made now.  I would guess they first go into bitmain's data centers in places were they sold S5 used units.   Then eventually the S7's make it to public hands.

But I think internal will be first priority for them.

[torepia]

"As the chilly all-natural Arctic cooling system descends on us we're tuning up our new 16NM Solar chip a little bit "
https://twitter.com/kncminer/status/640519559431233536

Let the race begin.

Not great news as we likely will never see any KNC chips in hobby miner hands.  I think this will be internal but guess we will see later down to road.

Next is SP, Innosilicon, who know when they start making machines with newer chips.  But that with bitmain is at least four chip makers all who will raise the difficulty... hope it spreads out some at least.

*Edit KNC has fell back quite a bit from that pic they showed https://blockchain.info/pools

Seems to be a closer race if you look at the last 24-hrs, https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

Hashrate has only gone up today, afaik. Means BM are also ramping up hashrate?

[VirosaGITS]

Well, look like opening guessed are betting pretty high. I guess betting for negative isin't going to take us anywhere for a while. I was hoping this wouldn't happen before S7 actually got out.

It is likely S7's are being made now.  I would guess they first go into bitmain's data centers in places were they sold S5 used units.   Then eventually the S7's make it to public hands.

But I think internal will be first priority for them.

That indeed does make sense. It allow them to fulfill their binds to the client on hashnest while reducing their expenses or allow more hardware to be fit in place. Especially for the pacmics.

[DanielRo]

Lottery ticket  : +7.51% to +7.82%.

[mavericklm]

+5%! up or down whatever you want!
thx

[edonkey]

Cat says:

+5.51 to +5.75%

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957


+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down

+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo

 please note  your pick of +7.51% to +7.82%  was not allowed since zebedee had first dibs on 7.51% to 7.75% however 7.76 to 8.00 was open so I gave you that.

[alh]

Please put me down for +5.26 to +5.50%

[Questor]

-.75% to -1.00%   Questor

[VirosaGITS]

+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS

[CrazyGuy]

8.01-8.25

[wpt1wpt1]

+6.26% to +6.50% please

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.75% to -1.00%   Questor

+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey

+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo

 please note  your pick of +7.51% to +7.82%  was not allowed since zebedee had first dibs on 7.51% to 7.75% however 7.76 to 8.00 was open so I gave you that.

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[ezeminer]

+6.01% to 6.25%

[Mikestang]

+5.76% to +6.00% please.

[DanielRo]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.75% to -1.00%   Questor

+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey

+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo

 please note  your pick of +7.51% to +7.82%  was not allowed since zebedee had first dibs on 7.51% to 7.75% however 7.76 to 8.00 was open so I gave you that.

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

Ok, thanks, did not know the rules, first time on mining speculation.

[Questor]

To be proper, I should correct to:

-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor

For if another daring individual is to take another negative slot, I would not want to be on the wrong side of the .01

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is going lower then I thought we would have:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,783,368,655 (+4.96%)
Adjust time:    After 1579 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):    416,276,506 GH/s

If we go under 5 this week I will consider it a win.  The raise in BTC is nice.  But these new machine's are going to hurt it looks like.

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done

+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[mavericklm]

8.01-8.25

This guy is really crazy! 

Phil, seeing how the hash is going, i want my usual spot please! +1.01 to +1.25!

Thank you very much!

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done

+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm


+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom appears to be going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    60,405,398,095 (+6.05%)
Adjust time:    After 1509 Blocks, About 10.2 days
Hashrate(?):    421,011,786 GH/s

Could be another interesting week.

[valkir]

+4.76% to +5.00% please! 

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17


https://blockchain.info/blocks

373493 (Main Chain)   2015-09-07 23:18:48
373348 (Main Chain)   2015-09-07 00:11:19

so far today 146 blocks with 40 minutes left

[wlefever]

+4.26% to +4.50% for me please

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done

+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm


+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean


+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever


+4.76% to +5.00% valkir
+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS

+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[Last of the V8s]

+4.51% to +4.75% please

[jonnybravo0311]

+2.76 to +3.00 for me if you please.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom looking nicer:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,596,227,114 (+4.63%)
Adjust time:    After 1398 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):    404,663,679 GH/s

I really hope we can get back to the 2-3 but I don't see that happening this week.  But I would love to be wrong.

[HerbPean]

Bitwisdom looking nicer:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,596,227,114 (+4.63%)
Adjust time:    After 1398 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):    404,663,679 GH/s

I really hope we can get back to the 2-3 but I don't see that happening this week.  But I would love to be wrong.

We didn't really get higher then 427 Peta and we had 407 in the previously Diff that is 3% right there.

[philipma1957]

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done



+2.76% to +3.00% Jonnybravo0311
+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever

+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir
+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS

+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[suchmoon]

Phil, you have mavericklm twice in the list. He should be at 5.01, tried to sneak in a lower guess later

[philipma1957]

Phil, you have mavericklm twice in the list. He should be at 5.01, tried to sneak in a lower guess later

not like him let me review the thread.

found the error.  he gets the 5%

he probably  spaced it out.  Too much partying.

+5%! up or down whatever you want!
thx

8.01-8.25

This guy is really crazy!  

Phil, seeing how the hash is going, i want my usual spot please! +1.01 to +1.25!

Thank you very much!

[mavericklm]

i gave up on the 5%
just looking at the graph https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty we can even have negative. maybe we will do when they will ship the s7  or something like that

[tss]

+4.01% to +4.25% please or closest if thats taken.

[notlist3d]

Morning Bitwisdom slightly going down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,440,675,780 (+4.36%)
Adjust time:    After 1267 Blocks, About 8.6 days
Hashrate(?):    407,547,570 GH/s

Price around 238

[philipma1957]

we are at block 2016 - 1266  = 750  so 250 blocks before the 1000 block cut off.

the 300 blocks made to 1000 blocks  made gives about 4-5 days to pick

@ mavericklm  we stopped pick changes a while back.

It was too much work.

We did 300 to 1000 blocks for the time you can pick. So that you have some idea of where we are at when you pick.
You can pick at block 300 which gives you more choices to pick but diff trends may move a lot.
You can pick at block 990 which gives a good idea of the trends but  many choices are gone.

Since there are no changes you stay  where you pick.
So you are at 5.00%-5.25%

you could still win since diff may change a lot from the current number of 4.28%

i gave up on the 5%
just looking at the graph https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty we can even have negative. maybe we will do when they will ship the s7  or something like that

picks are open.



-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done



+2.76% to +3.00% Jonnybravo0311
+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever

+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir
+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS

+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[mavericklm]

no problemo!

i still think it will go down ~end of september, beginning of october. unless bitfury or knc or some1 else is pushing down the pedal

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.

we have made 754 blocks so far  'normal' = 736  so we are +2.44%   

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (+4.08%)


my 2.44 is real time  bitcoinwisdom  4.08 is future time prediction

2.44 is looking very good if it happens.

the s-7 is due to ship as soon as the 21st of sept.

also the s-7 will mine in the cloud on bitmaintech on the 10th of oct.

So if we do under 2 or 3 percent this time I think sept 16th to oct 16th will be bigger then that.

[tlhIlwI]

+2.01 to +2.25 please

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18

840 blocks made   norm = 822 real tim diff = (+2.18%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (+4.30%)


my 2.18 is real time  bitcoinwisdom  4.30 is future time prediction

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done


+2.01% to +2.25% tlhIwI

+2.76% to +3.00% Jonnybravo0311
+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever

+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir
+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS

+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[EternalWingsofGod]

Taking the spot for
+3.76% to +4.00%


Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 59,467,557,401 (+4.41%) 
Adjust time: After 1159 Blocks, About 7.9 days 
Hashrate(?): 407,707,943 GH/s

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,540,756,134 (+4.54%)
Adjust time:    After 1110 Blocks, About 7.5 days
Hashrate(?):    417,507,513 GH/s

Difficulty is not great but hopefully we can be under 5 percent for this period.  Price is around 238 so still hanging pretty close to around 240 mark.

[notlist3d]

And bit wisdom is going up again:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    60,016,291,042 (+5.37%)
Adjust time:    After 979 Blocks, About 6.5 days
Hashrate(?):    431,945,682 GH/s

Price still hanging around 240.

[mavericklm]

someone flip the switch
damn!
at least there is bigger chance of negative in the future. i mean variance will be bigger, some players will be out...

[notlist3d]

someone flip the switch
damn!
at least there is bigger chance of negative in the future. i mean variance will be bigger, some players will be out...

Its getting closer to winter.  If anything we will see more small players.  And companions finishing chips so more there.

I  would not count on a negative for a while.  Just a different time for mining.

[HerbPean]

Bitcoin Difficulty:   56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:   60,451,582,858 (+6.13%)
Adjust time:   After 901 Blocks, About 5.9 days
Hashrate(?):   458,197,758 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes
Updated:   13:5 (1.8 minutes ago)

Very high surge to 458 Peta, it might be variance but it doesn't look good at all

[adaseb]

I guess 7.25% to 7.50% is the only slot thats open at the moment.

Probably going to be 5-7% somewhere in that area.


Not looking good

[philipma1957]

I guess 7.25% to 7.50% is the only slot thats open at the moment.

Probably going to be 5-7% somewhere in that area.


Not looking good

too late but  my fault  not yours I got busy and did not post a warning.

So  You are in and this is now closed.

[philipma1957]

-1.01% to -1.25%   philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   Questor correction done


+2.01% to +2.25% tlhIwI

+2.76% to +3.00% Jonnybravo0311
+3.01% to +3.25% HerbPean

+3.76% to +4.00% EternalWingsofGod
+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever
+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir
+5.01% to +5.25% mavericklm   note I went up not down
+5.26% to +5.50% alh
+5.51% to +5.75% edonkey
+5.76% to +6.00% Mikestang
+6.01% to +6.25% ezeminer
+6.26% to +6.50% wpt1wpt1
+6.51% to +6.75% notlist3d
+6.76% to +7.00% Kexkey
+7.01% to +7.25% VirosaGITS
+7.25% to  +7.50% adaseb
+7.51% to +7.75% zebedee

+7.76% to + 8.00% DanielRo correction done

+8.01% to +8.25% CrazyGuy

[VirosaGITS]

So its;
Estimated Next Difficulty:   60,052,954,837 (+5.43%)

Right now and the 504 block hashrate is much higher, so we're looking at a pretty big, even higher bump upward it looks like. Thankfully the BTC price went back to 235+ for now, hopefully the price will stabilize while following the diff increase a bit.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 --- +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see

[notlist3d]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 --- +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see

Ive been worried all week.  I really hope it's wrong... but I think were in for a good jump.

And next week there will be more S7's being made most likely... I expect this to last a few difficulty periods sadly.

[adaseb]

I guess 7.25% to 7.50% is the only slot thats open at the moment.

Probably going to be 5-7% somewhere in that area.


Not looking good

too late but  my fault  not yours I got busy and did not post a warning.

So  You are in and this is now closed.

Thanks. I was reading the topic title and it still said "open".

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers


well kind of makes sense

the s-3 to s-5  was .8 watts to .5 watts  not 1/2  drop in power.

the s-5 to s-7 is .5  watts to .25 watts   that is a real 1/2 drop in power.

so upgrades are needed to keep up. My thoughts are sept 2015 to July 2016 will really be a ride.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,963,232,138 (+5.28%)
Adjust time:    After 819 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    453,542,410 GH/s

Not the direction we want to go.  Have to wonder at this point how many 5+ weeks we can have, i'm afraid of it being the new norm.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom is going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,963,232,138 (+5.28%)
Adjust time:    After 819 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    453,542,410 GH/s

Not the direction we want to go.  Have to wonder at this point how many 5+ weeks we can have, i'm afraid of it being the new norm.

no not the new norm but very likely we get to a diff close to 70-75 by oct. then I hope we flatten  out.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,963,232,138 (+5.28%)
Adjust time:    After 819 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):    453,542,410 GH/s

Not the direction we want to go.  Have to wonder at this point how many 5+ weeks we can have, i'm afraid of it being the new norm.

no not the new norm but very likely we get to a diff close to 70-75 by oct. then I hope we flatten  out.

I hope your right on that.  With the few companies working on chips still to come, I'm afraid of those adding to this.  And I really think bitmain will be pumping out a lot of machines right now.  And add winter hobby miners into equation.

If we get lucky a lot of old A2 will finally come offline but some are in places so cheap on electricity i'm not sure when.   

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned

[mavericklm]

it may go down hard
i really wish for it!
don't really like this +5%stuff! i got one year in the btc world.... not so used to +20+% jumps

[notlist3d]

I don't want to.. but I can do 5 if I have to for a bit.   Happy I sold off some of my older gear.  Guess we will see but I just want it to go back to low 2's.

Guess we will see.  I really don't want 5 to be new norm.

[mavericklm]

then lets have some +15% to kill some pussys )))))))
one or two like this and i think i will get drunk most of the time! just to cope with it

[notlist3d]

then lets have some +15% to kill some pussys )))))))
one or two like this and i think i will get drunk most of the time! just to cope with it

Solid +15's would kill hobby mining for most.   I hope to never see the 15-20 normal jumps we had long ago.

One big thing look at price today it's headed the wrong direction :/

[mavericklm]

curious how much the hash rate will fall after 2 * +15% rounds...

cheap coins!!!

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015  ---- 0         +61       and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary

we are at block 1466 and should be at 1405  which is +4.34%

550 blocks left.

if you look above we had 3 big numbers 157, 163 ,168   and only 1 low number 138.  We could use a few more around 130

[mavericklm]

can we say: looks like the ~+5% is here to stay?!
i mean it is not from variance but from added miners

[EternalWingsofGod]

can we say: looks like the ~+5% is here to stay?!
i mean it is not from variance but from added miners

The increased difficulty we saw last round seems to be carrying onto this round
So it is a possibility that the network is seeing a stable miner growth preceding the release of new miners and of course cooler temperatures

Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,228,526,639 (+5.74%) 
Adjust time: After 501 Blocks, About 3.3 days 
Hashrate(?): 436,655,842 GH/

[philipma1957]

can we say: looks like the ~+5% is here to stay?!
i mean it is not from variance but from added miners

The increased difficulty we saw last round seems to be carrying onto this round
So it is a possibility that the network is seeing a stable miner growth preceding the release of new miners and of course cooler temperatures

Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,228,526,639 (+5.74%) 
Adjust time: After 501 Blocks, About 3.3 days 
Hashrate(?): 436,655,842 GH/

Yeah I agree.  S-5 was .51 watts  S-7 is .25 watts   a major improvement in power use.

S-5 = 1150 gh
S-7 = 4875 gh

a major hash increase.

Last winter I ran 12 sp20's and 3 avalon 4.1's along with an s-5

I downclocked all the gear for noise and heat.

and I was pushing 15th to 16th

That is 16 pieces of gear. I used  about 7-8 kwatts

3 s-7's  will do 14th   at 3.6 kwatts

This is a major improvement.  People are going to be installing s-7's  and 5% to 6%  for 3 jumps looks like it will happen easy.

I still think network goes flat at the 70 diff point.
I simply think bitmaintech will stop sales for a month. They did this with the s-5.

[adaseb]

So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?

Or is it considered void?

[suchmoon]

So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?

Or is it considered void?

To win the difficulty has to be within the range you guessed, no exceptions. If no one wins the reward gets added to the next period's reward. Current reward is 0.2 BTC because no one won last time.

[VirosaGITS]

0.2 Is going to be a nice Juicy bits. It look like the winner will be very close to the 5% range. It kinda feel like 5% is the new Norm for the rest of 2015. Meanwhile the BTC price seem to be holding at 230~. For now.

[philipma1957]

we are under 5%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.94%)

and we have 456 blocks to go

[notlist3d]

we are under 5%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.94%)

and we have 456 blocks to go

If we get it under 5 I will consider it a little win since not rediclous amount.   But I am still worried of weeks to come.   

I just wonder how many S7's have been pumped out.  Also with it going to be on hashnest in October if those machines have been made already and plugged in mining for Bitmain, of if we can expect a big batch just for hashnest to come.

[wlefever]

we are under 5%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.94%)

and we have 456 blocks to go

If we get it under 5 I will consider it a little win since not rediclous amount.   But I am still worried of weeks to come.   

I just wonder how many S7's have been pumped out.  Also with it going to be on hashnest in October if those machines have been made already and plugged in mining for Bitmain, of if we can expect a big batch just for hashnest to come.

Well the only good thing is we know the S2's are offline, and I expect a good bit of those to stay turned off.  No doubt the S7's that are pumped out will keep increasing the hashrate, but we are def getting to the point of no return for the older generation machines that are stretching their last bit of life.

[notlist3d]

we are under 5%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+4.94%)

and we have 456 blocks to go

If we get it under 5 I will consider it a little win since not rediclous amount.   But I am still worried of weeks to come.   

I just wonder how many S7's have been pumped out.  Also with it going to be on hashnest in October if those machines have been made already and plugged in mining for Bitmain, of if we can expect a big batch just for hashnest to come.

Well the only good thing is we know the S2's are offline, and I expect a good bit of those to stay turned off.  No doubt the S7's that are pumped out will keep increasing the hashrate, but we are def getting to the point of no return for the older generation machines that are stretching their last bit of life.

I would not say we know that.  With cheap electricity in some places I don't see them just piling up S2's and letting them die.  Likely they would try to find a buyer and sell as used.

A1/S2 stuff I think a lot remains online.   It's hard to say when we will lose all of this gear.

[VirosaGITS]

Indeed, i am still running S1's (undervolted) so i would definitively want to run S2',s if they were quiet right this moment. I'm assuming they have a plan for all that hardware. At any rate, they would make good heating units for electric central heating in houses.

So Other than personal miners that decide "they are obsolete so i am going to put them in the trashcan" i don't think S2's are going to go offline yet.

[wlefever]

They are offline from Hashnest and I don't think anyone is rushing to get them all back online. Sure they will sell them as used to someone interested with cheap power (aka someone in China), but how much life are left on them by the time you purchase and get it set up assuming were talking a large farm?

Also note I never said they were obsolete but they are def on their last leg per say.

[VirosaGITS]

They are offline from Hashnest and I don't think anyone is rushing to get them all back online. Sure they will sell them as used to someone interested with cheap power (aka someone in China), but how much life are left on them by the time you purchase and get it set up assuming were talking a large farm?

Also note I never said they were obsolete but they are def on their last leg per say.

I'm pretty sure S2,s are still profitable in China, and for Bitmain. So i'm not particularly sure Bitmain offlined them. I mean its possible but its not because they stopped payouts at hashnest based on return/cost rules (based on the amount they charge customers, not their real cost)

Because i'm pretty sure they pay much less than than 8 cents per kWh. Or maybe they were offlined because they needed space or for some other reason but regardless, S2's are still profitable here with Hydro so i would assume China have even better rates.

This sadly i'm not sure this will contribute to a difficulty drop just yet. Would be nice though, since the BTC price isint keeping up.

[notlist3d]

They are offline from Hashnest and I don't think anyone is rushing to get them all back online. Sure they will sell them as used to someone interested with cheap power (aka someone in China), but how much life are left on them by the time you purchase and get it set up assuming were talking a large farm?

Also note I never said they were obsolete but they are def on their last leg per say.

I'm pretty sure S2,s are still profitable in China, and for Bitmain. So i'm not particularly sure Bitmain offlined them. I mean its possible but its not because they stopped payouts at hashnest based on return/cost rules (based on the amount they charge customers, not their real cost)

Because i'm pretty sure they pay much less than than 8 cents per kWh. Or maybe they were offlined because they needed space or for some other reason but regardless, S2's are still profitable here with Hydro so i would assume China have even better rates.

This sadly i'm not sure this will contribute to a difficulty drop just yet. Would be nice though, since the BTC price isint keeping up.

They have no doubt found the cheapest electricity.   Pulling them from hashnest is not the same as them stopping mining internally with them.  It would not surprise me if they pay 1/2 or less then that 8 cents.   

But yea don't count on them going offline.  Just like A1's they are running somewhere I believe on most.

[philipma1957]

They are offline from Hashnest and I don't think anyone is rushing to get them all back online. Sure they will sell them as used to someone interested with cheap power (aka someone in China), but how much life are left on them by the time you purchase and get it set up assuming were talking a large farm?

Also note I never said they were obsolete but they are def on their last leg per say.

I'm pretty sure S2,s are still profitable in China, and for Bitmain. So i'm not particularly sure Bitmain offlined them. I mean its possible but its not because they stopped payouts at hashnest based on return/cost rules (based on the amount they charge customers, not their real cost)

Because i'm pretty sure they pay much less than than 8 cents per kWh. Or maybe they were offlined because they needed space or for some other reason but regardless, S2's are still profitable here with Hydro so i would assume China have even better rates.

This sadly i'm not sure this will contribute to a difficulty drop just yet. Would be nice though, since the BTC price isint keeping up.

They have no doubt found the cheapest electricity.   Pulling them from hashnest is not the same as them stopping mining internally with them.  It would not surprise me if they pay 1/2 or less then that 8 cents.   

But yea don't count on them going offline.  Just like A1's they are running somewhere I believe on most.

I am running 4 s-3's at 2.4 cents they earn around .014btc a day  the power costs me about 15 usd a month.

[mavericklm]

I am running 4 s-3's at 2.4 cents they earn around .014btc a day  the power costs me about 15 usd a month.

you can put an s7 in the place of the 4 * s3!  


Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,938,071,210 (+5.23%)
Adjust time:    After 389 Blocks, About 2.5 days
Hashrate(?):    417,794,711 GH/s

the higher we go in hashrate, the higher the variance the swings will be
maybe in the future we will have even 5% swing from one day to another
....

[philipma1957]

I am running 4 s-3's at 2.4 cents they earn around .014btc a day  the power costs me about 15 usd a month.

you can put an s7 in the place of the 4 * s3!  


Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,938,071,210 (+5.23%)
Adjust time:    After 389 Blocks, About 2.5 days
Hashrate(?):    417,794,711 GH/s

the higher we go in hashrate, the higher the variance the swings will be
maybe in the future we will have even 5% swing from one day to another
....

yeah if i could make it quiet.

[alh]

And also come up with $2000 roughly to earn a bit more. The S3's are a sunk cost more or less. Phillip's specific situation is unusual, and putting in a "big money" machine will do nothing but blow whatever profit he already has.

As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.

[mavericklm]

http://www.wamungo.com/Images/laquo-Back-3D-Models-raquo-Computer-Mobile-Fan-adapter-for-50mm-to-80mm-fanPopulare-3D-Models-52764b51ec4ccb2c50cd5658   does the link work?

but with 175mm fan or 2*12cm fans....

[EternalWingsofGod]

So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?

Or is it considered void?

To win the difficulty has to be within the range you guessed, no exceptions. If no one wins the reward gets added to the next period's reward. Current reward is 0.2 BTC because no one won last time.

I didn't know the reward was accumulative that said it will be interesting to see who wins seeing as there are only a few hundred blocks left and it will only carry forward if it passes 8.26% this round which may be a good pick next difficulty seeing as units may start to come online as philip mentioned with the S-7s.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,181,868,441 (+5.66%)  
Adjust time: After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days  

[notlist3d]

So if the difficulty goes to +8.01 or higher to infinity does CrazyGuy won automatically?

Or is it considered void?

To win the difficulty has to be within the range you guessed, no exceptions. If no one wins the reward gets added to the next period's reward. Current reward is 0.2 BTC because no one won last time.

I didn't know the reward was accumulative that said it will be interesting to see who wins seeing as there are only a few hundred blocks left and it will only carry forward if it passes 8.26% this round which may be a good pick next difficulty seeing as units may start to come online as philip mentioned with the S-7s.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,181,868,441 (+5.66%)  
Adjust time: After 358 Blocks, About 2.3 days  

Right now

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,883,888,523 (+5.14%)
Adjust time:    After 347 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):    418,113,495 GH/s

I really want to stay under 5 that would be nice but I don't think it's going to happen.   I really want to know if bitmain has already gotten their own internal miners up and running (specifically hashnet ones), or if that is coming in future.

[philipma1957]

And also come up with $2000 roughly to earn a bit more. The S3's are a sunk cost more or less. Phillip's specific situation is unusual, and putting in a "big money" machine will do nothing but blow whatever profit he already has.

As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.

 They are in my friend's office.    And they use up about 1450 watts which is all I can do in his place.

yeah the s-7 would be nice but as you say 1900 plus to use the 2.4 cent power.

A second issue is his lease is up on Jan 1  and we do not know if he will continue in his place.

But I did mine from May 2014 to Sept 2015 so far.  First with s-1's then with s-'3's.

This gear has roi'd in btc and usd including the psu's in use.

I have a second spot in the brooklyn navy yard  I have a 240 volt 30 amp circuit I think the s-7's on order will end up in this spot.

The issue here once again is noise.  I may run the s-7's as low as 3600gh with these mufflers



http://www.ebay.com/itm/281147636370?

[notlist3d]

And also come up with $2000 roughly to earn a bit more. The S3's are a sunk cost more or less. Phillip's specific situation is unusual, and putting in a "big money" machine will do nothing but blow whatever profit he already has.

As I understand it, the S3's may not all be in one location, though my memory may be faulty here.

 They are in my friend's office.    And they use up about 1450 watts which is all I can do in his place.

yeah the s-7 would be nice but as you say 1900 plus to use the 2.4 cent power.

A second issue is his lease is up on Jan 1  and we do not know if he will continue in his place.

But I did mine from May 2014 to Sept 2015 so far.  First with s-1's then with s-'3's.

This gear has roi'd in btc and usd including the psu's in use.

I have a second spot in the brooklyn navy yard  I have a 240 volt 30 amp circuit I think the s-7's on order will end up in this spot.

The issue here once again is noise.  I may run the s-7's as low as 3600gh with these mufflers



http://www.ebay.com/itm/281147636370?

So how are you getting all these awesome friends for hosting? I have to admit I'm a little jealous of your ability to find cheap electricity.

I do look forward to you making it quiet.  I would love to see some S7 "silencers" for lack of better term.

[VirosaGITS]

Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.

But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.

I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.

But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?

[philipma1957]

Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.

But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.

I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.

But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?

I purchased diy  and pre made.  that link is premade

diy for intake  is this

http://www.lowes.com/pd_10149-286-692201___?productId=3005463&pl=1&Ntt=sono+tube

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/261468673695

if these do the job they will be worth the money.

[VirosaGITS]

Hmm, mufflers. That sound like a great idea, but pretty expensive.
I guess for a S7, its such a big unit that you can soak it, however.

But i'm wondering if i could not DIY one. I'm guessing its just the foam used in sound absorbent panels rolled in a tube of aluminium.

I would have to see how its made but i'm pretty sure with some cheap aluminium sheet that i already have at home, buying the sound absorbent material, i could handcraft one. (With a healthy dose of duct tape)
Edit: Looking at pictures of it from other angles this would be very easy to make. Its just rolled foam.

But i'm guessing you might want one at intake and exhaust?

I purchased diy  and pre made.  that link is premade

diy for intake  is this

http://www.lowes.com/pd_10149-286-692201___?productId=3005463&pl=1&Ntt=sono+tube

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/261468673695

if these do the job they will be worth the money.

Please let me know. Those foam look low quality/density, not sure, but i think i would buy a big roll and make noise absorbent panels too if its dense enough.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015  ---- 0         +61       and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
151 Sept 14 2015 -----+7        +68

we will be over 150 today so +75 or +80

this will be a good sized jump

[notlist3d]

This week is going to hurt:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:    60,226,440,016 (+5.74%)
Adjust time:    After 176 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):    454,976,728 GH/s


Just have to wonder how long can we keep getting 5 percent or so.   I don't see a end in sight for the moment.

[Mikestang]

I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall.  The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.

[alh]

I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall.  The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.

I think we were all just so "shell shocked" by the difficulty increases during 2013 and 2014, a small increase of 1% we just shrug off. In any other industry, 1% growth every 2-weeks would be considered crazy. I agree the days of 1% are over for at least a few months. It might not be quite as a bad though if Bitmain is doing most of the increases. All of the other obvious names (e.g. KNC, Bitfury, Spondoolies, etc), are all pretty opaque these days.

[notlist3d]

I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall.  The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.

I think so which really is sad.  Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine.    Will come down to cheap electricity only.

And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer.  Scary future looking at it.

[VirosaGITS]

I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall.  The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.

I think so which really is sad.  Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine.    Will come down to cheap electricity only.

And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer.  Scary future looking at it.

At 2% & 0.05$/kWh you won't even be able to ROI the S7 before the halving according to BitCoinwisom calc with 2000$ as total cost. 5% Indeed sound scary, but i don't think 5% can be sustained indefinitely.

I am pretty sure in a few months we'll reach the new balance with the new hardware where the Difficulty will be more stable. Still, not sure the S7 is ROI-able either way before the halving.

Seem even more gloomy for less efficient hardware.

[notlist3d]

I think we're going to keep seeing 5%+ as all the new gen hardware comes online and the northern hemisphere cools down for fall.  The network may keep growing like this all the way to the halving.

I think so which really is sad.  Roi at today's prices is hard at 5+.... just is going to be tough to mine.    Will come down to cheap electricity only.

And just think were still approaching having each period were one closer.  Scary future looking at it.

At 2% & 0.05$/kWh you won't even be able to ROI the S7 before the halving according to BitCoinwisom calc with 2000$ as total cost. 5% Indeed sound scary, but i don't think 5% can be sustained indefinitely.

I am pretty sure in a few months we'll reach the new balance with the new hardware where the Difficulty will be more stable. Still, not sure the S7 is ROI-able either way before the halving.

Seem even more gloomy for less efficient hardware.

Not indefinably but it can for a while.  Just think bitmain has their own farms that they will upgrade spots that used S5's sold were.  Then there is hashnest they are going to make a decent amount for the hashnest users.   And then there is batch one buyers.  That right there is a lot of miners.

And that does not include any other companies in the mix.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015  ---- 0         +61       and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
150 Sept 14 2015 -----+6       +67
163 Sept 15 2015 ----- +19     +86


we are pushing 160 for today.   So we will be about 100 blocks over pace.

7% looks pretty much possible for this jump.

[notlist3d]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015  ---- 0         +61       and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
150 Sept 14 2015 -----+6       +67
163 Sept 15 2015 ----- +19     +86


we are pushing 160 for today.   So we will be about 100 blocks over pace.

7% looks pretty much possible for this jump.

Ouch.... 7 is going to hurt.  I think someone is pumping out the miners at a pretty amazing rate.   This scares me.

The thought of 1 or even 2 companies being able to produce so much hash in one period is scary anymore.

[alh]

I wonder how much of this is "latent hashrate" that was off for the summer due to cooling costs, or perhaps higher electricity prices during the summer months. Also we are all assuming that Bitmain was putting in S7 hardware and selling off 100's of S5 miners. Those S5's were bought and are now being run by somebody. I think there is quite a lag (i.e. many months) for displaced gear to actually disappear from the network. How much BFL gear is still hashing? Original KNC hardware? At some point they become a sunk cost and they get run until they are seriously in the red in terms of electrical costs. As Phil has said, a lowered BTC price accelerates that process.

[notlist3d]

I wonder how much of this is "latent hashrate" that was off for the summer due to cooling costs, or perhaps higher electricity prices during the summer months. Also we are all assuming that Bitmain was putting in S7 hardware and selling off 100's of S5 miners. Those S5's were bought and are now being run by somebody. I think there is quite a lag (i.e. many months) for displaced gear to actually disappear from the network. How much BFL gear is still hashing? Original KNC hardware? At some point they become a sunk cost and they get run until they are seriously in the red in terms of electrical costs. As Phil has said, a lowered BTC price accelerates that process.

I don't know for all but for me in the midwest it's same power year around on cost.  It seems to vary be area on this.   We have cooled down some but it's still not near winter weather where I am yet.  I think winter miners are still to come on turning on.  Which is sad to think about.

As far as old gear I think look at A1's and S2's.  I think there are MASSIVE amounts of these in cheap electricity places still making money.  Eventually they will go offline but so far it does not seem like it. 

BFL really did not have much big gear they had trouble with little gear for the longest time.  I don't think there are a ton of that big rig or what ever they called it, but those most likely are offline. 

[edonkey]

With less than 17 hours to go, bitcoinwisdom and nextdiffculty are both converging on 4.3%.

Doesn't seem like we're going to 7% this time (I hope!)

[philipma1957]

With less than 17 hours to go, bitcoinwisdom and nextdiffculty are both converging on 4.3%.

Doesn't seem like we're going to 7% this time (I hope!)

antpool has not had a block in about 6 hours. 

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18
168 Sept 10 2015 ---  +24       +42                brutal number but 3 in a row is what we need to worry about so lets wait until tonight to see
163 Sept 11 2015 ---  +19      +61                back to back high numbers
144 Sept 12 2015 ---   0         +61        and normal  which is good   maybe it was variance  stay tuned
144 Sept 13 2015  ---- 0         +61       and normal again which makes the 10, 11 sept days a little less scary
150 Sept 14 2015 -----+6       +67
163 Sept 15 2015 ----- +19     +86
145 Sept 16 2015 ----- +1       + 87

we are pushing 160 for today.   So we will be about 100 blocks over pace.

7% looks pretty much possible for this jump.

antpool stopped making blocks for hours it has helped the diff.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/AntPool


about 5 hours and 40 minutes between blocks.

[EternalWingsofGod]

+3.76% to +4.00% EternalWingsofGod
+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever
+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir

Not much time left now.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty: 59,434,783,589 (+4.35%) 
Adjust time: After 57 Blocks, About 9.0 hours 
Hashrate(?): 423,208,380 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.5 minutes

3 blocks: 28.5 minutes

6 blocks: 57.0 minutes
 
Updated: 

[philipma1957]

23 blocks to go about 4 hours time.

good luck to those that are close to 4%



+3.76% to +4.00% EternalWingsofGod
+4.01% to +4.25% tss
+4.26% to +4.50% wlefever
+4.51% to +4.75% Last of the V8s
+4.76% to +5.00% valkir




12 blocks left  and we are at (+4.39%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:   59,457,980,641 (+4.39%)
Adjust time:   After 12 Blocks, About 1.9 hours
Hashrate(?):   421,214,589 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.5 minutes
Updated:   13:15 (4.1 minutes ago)

[Mikestang]

Any my high 5 percentage was looking so good for so long, looks like we'll have a sub-5% diff change this go which is much less that we all thought at points during this adjustment period.

[notlist3d]

Looks like we are going to do better then I expected with  under 5.   Kinda sad when under 5 feels like a win at some point.

I really want to see if this continues onto the next week.

[philipma1957]

1 block to go.  tss should win but a long time til next  block and he could lose

[wlefever]

1 block to go.  tss should win but a long time til next  block and he could lose

Last block just hit, looks final.

I had a chance until Block 374971 took forever!

Congrats to tss +4.17%

[HerbPean]

Congrats Tss ! 

[philipma1957]

I will close once suchmoon pays off..

@ tss   please post a btc addy for suchmoon

[DanielRo]

+4.01% to +4.25% please or closest if thats taken.

Congrats man.

[VirosaGITS]

+4.01% to +4.25% please or closest if thats taken.

Congrats man.

And additionally he get 2 week's work of reward. Pretty secks if i may say so myself. See you in the next thread.

[EternalWingsofGod]

Congrats Tss it was a close round
Enjoy your victory ^^

[suchmoon]

Congratulations tss!

Let me know where to send your reward.

[tss]

wow.  i finally got one!  woo hoo!
it's probably since i bought a surprise box for .1 btc from philipma1957. 
he must have fixed the game for me.

15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

[suchmoon]

wow.  i finally got one!  woo hoo!
it's probably since i bought a surprise box for .1 btc from philipma1957. 
he must have fixed the game for me.

15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

Yeah I bet Phil turned all his miners off to get this down towards 4%

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/83c7a7b8a2feef7d2011af08bb385b39ffd956e5a3a0f1c5df50a650d5757513

Congratulations again and thank you for participating!

[tss]

wow.  i finally got one!  woo hoo!
it's probably since i bought a surprise box for .1 btc from philipma1957. 
he must have fixed the game for me.

15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

Yeah I bet Phil turned all his miners off to get this down towards 4%

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/83c7a7b8a2feef7d2011af08bb385b39ffd956e5a3a0f1c5df50a650d5757513

Congratulations again and thank you for participating!

got it.  thanks again for being part of this game.  trust left if it means anything. 

[philipma1957]

wow.  i finally got one!  woo hoo!
it's probably since i bought a surprise box for .1 btc from philipma1957. 
he must have fixed the game for me.

15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

Yeah I bet Phil turned all his miners off to get this down towards 4%

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/83c7a7b8a2feef7d2011af08bb385b39ffd956e5a3a0f1c5df50a650d5757513

Congratulations again and thank you for participating!

yeah actually my internet was spotty and my usb sticks were not running about 100gh worth.

[notlist3d]

+4.01% to +4.25% please or closest if thats taken.

Congrats man.

Defintally congratz.  I did not see it being less then 5 but I am happy I was wrong.

[philipma1957]

okay this is all settled new thread is here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1183709.0


this is locked.