Soon comes the ASIC onslaught, what about the aftermath..

[Desolator]

There's also the possibility that so many people get ASICS fast enough that essentially it becomes a nearly perfect balance and ROI stretches out for a long time- with people making just a touch more then the cost of running them.

BFL's shipping policy states that it will ensure that that happens Btw that is going to happen.  There's like $500,000 total in pre-orders across 3 major companies and for every pre-order there's 3 people like me waiting to see if ASICs even run stable before they order one.  It's going to get really bad really fast.

[Easy2Mine]

Only $500,000 pre-orders across 3 major asic companies?
How do you get those numbers?

[Desolator]

Well according to rumors, BFL's order count is somewhere between 7,000 and 15,000 but the majority of them are artificially created DB line IDs that increment but those orders are never paid for or basically never make it to the checkout screen.  BFL said they have no idea how many pre-orders they have at the moment (concerning much?!) but they did say a while ago that they have over $250,000 in pre-orders.  So by now it's got to be a bit higher.

As for the bASIC, someone told me that the owners said they already hit the 300 order mark so split that between their high and low end rigs and adjust for more orders since then and you've got even more money.

Take those approx numbers and apply them to the Avalon but at a lower amount since they're releasing so much later.  I thought they'd have about 15 pre-orders since they're coming out like 4 months after BFL!!! But someone told me it's higher, lol.

I have to re-run the numbers yet again but it lands at somewhere near $500k.

[Easy2Mine]

I am not a big miner. I can't afford a minirig yet, but if you are right about $500.000.
Then my preorder alone already count for 2.598% of the total sum of $500.000.
Only 40 small to medium miners are needed to pre-order $500.000 worth of equipment.
What if 40 big miners are going to pre-order asics?
Something in your calculation must be wrong.

[yrtrnc]

I think we are talking of millions of usd worth of BFL orders alone. But I still think that as long as bitcoin is in demand the price will have to go up. And since miners are supplying the demand, they will decide pricing.

[Desolator]

Well, my calcs assume that BFL is tied for the biggest total amount of pre-orders.  Like you're saying, that may not be the case.  I'll re-run the numbers soon in a new post and try and get a real estimate.

[yrtrnc]

I remember bfl staff mentioning the pre order number around 5000, but I cant remember where exact.

now u just round up the price per unit. Id say 70% Jalapeno 28% single and 2% rigs.. about that I recon

so 3500 x 149 + 1400 x 1299 + 100 x 29899 = 5,330,000.00 usd cha ching... beats mining

[scrybe]

Well according to rumors, BFL's order count is somewhere between 7,000 and 15,000 but the majority of them are artificially created DB line IDs that increment but those orders are never paid for or basically never make it to the checkout screen.  BFL said they have no idea how many pre-orders they have at the moment (concerning much?!) but they did say a while ago that they have over $250,000 in pre-orders.  So by now it's got to be a bit higher.

As for the bASIC, someone told me that the owners said they already hit the 300 order mark so split that between their high and low end rigs and adjust for more orders since then and you've got even more money.

Take those approx numbers and apply them to the Avalon but at a lower amount since they're releasing so much later.  I thought they'd have about 15 pre-orders since they're coming out like 4 months after BFL!!! But someone told me it's higher, lol.

I have to re-run the numbers yet again but it lands at somewhere near $500k.

Some additional data for you:

I got sick of not knowing what order number we're up to, and trying to figure out how many bASICs are ordered, so I started a wait list here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=117955.0

Go forth, and gimme ur info!

Although the thread is a fine idea, all you had to do was ask.

Approximately 650 bASIC units have been pre-ordered.

And

As far as ratio of 54/27 I can tell you the amount of 27's ordered is only like 50 something, so its significantly less. Although people are still ordering them little by little, people are actually still ordering ModMiner Quads believe it or not - I shipped out 4 of them yesterday (one of them was for the contest)

Looks like Tom has ~700k by himself, to the Mathcave!

[scrybe]

There's also the possibility that so many people get ASICS fast enough that essentially it becomes a nearly perfect balance and ROI stretches out for a long time- with people making just a touch more then the cost of running them.

BFL's shipping policy states that it will ensure that that happens Btw that is going to happen.  There's like $500,000 total in pre-orders across 3 major companies and for every pre-order there's 3 people like me waiting to see if ASICs even run stable before they order one.  It's going to get really bad really fast.

I think you guys are overestimating the speed at which these guys can manufacture their initial and follow-up batches.

There is going to be demand-side pressure far higher than the supply side can keep up with, we know that for sure from the BFL situation. Maintence mode for these manufacturers will certainly lower our margins of us as well as the manufacturer, but until the supply and demand sides of the equation are more balanced there will be an unusual opportunity to profit that is directly proportional to the number of ASIC-days you are able to get outin advance of parity.

I don't see parity happening (excluding USD/BTC rates) before 2014 at least, we have a long way to go before the manufacturers are at a (almost) modern process node, and lots of margin cuts to go (both leading to better BTC/Ghs) before the ROI goes out past 12 months.

[Desolator]

I remember bfl staff mentioning the pre order number around 5000, but I cant remember where exact.

now u just round up the price per unit. Id say 70% Jalapeno 28% single and 2% rigs.. about that I recon

so 3500 x 149 + 1400 x 1299 + 100 x 29899 = 5,330,000.00 usd cha ching... beats mining

I tried doing it that way and everyone reminded me that landing on the checkout page generated an incrementing order number and a gigantic portion of them were never followed through on.  People just wanted a shipping quote something, I dunno.  So if you're order number 5000 (they also claimed 7000 btw) then 50% of the other orders may not be legit.  I do know they claimed quite a while ago to get $250,000 in pre-orders though.

Also, as for manufacturing speed, they change their mind a lot but said to the effect of they're not even shipping out products until they can fill a significant enough portion of their pre-orders.  I think their own rules mathematically add up to like 85%-ish of the pre-orders.  So yeah, everyone's getting theirs at once.

[Korbman]

Well, if you just go by BFL documented preorders alone, you get:

Jalapeno SC - 222 x $149 = $33078
Single SC - 239 x $1299 =  $310461
Mini Rig SC - 22 x $29899 = $657778
Total: $1,001,317

So that's a bit off from the $500,000 you pointed out Desolator

[Desolator]

hey, someone just randomly told me that at some unknown point in time, BFL said $250k.  I think it was a long time ago of course, where did you get those numbers?  Because "my order number is _____" is not a proper way to count.  Did BFL finally release some actual, verified counts?

[bitboyben]

Well, if you just go by BFL documented preorders alone, you get:

Jalapeno SC - 222 x $149 = $33078
Single SC - 239 x $1299 =  $310461
Mini Rig SC - 22 x $29899 = $657778
Total: $1,001,317

So that's a bit off from the $500,000 you pointed out Desolator

Bit off topic, but how much money/ how many Ths do they have to sell to make a return on their investment?

[bitcon]

just imagine if the ASICS would have invested money in BTC instead of throwing it away on hardware.

[yrtrnc]

I've seen a number in the range of 10 mil

Well, if you just go by BFL documented preorders alone, you get:

Jalapeno SC - 222 x $149 = $33078
Single SC - 239 x $1299 =  $310461
Mini Rig SC - 22 x $29899 = $657778
Total: $1,001,317

So that's a bit off from the $500,000 you pointed out Desolator

Bit off topic, but how much money/ how many Ths do they have to sell to make a return on their investment?

[yrtrnc]

There are 5000 actual confirmed orders apparently!!!

Also BFL claims they can manufacture 300 per 8 working hrs, so yeah, everyone will pretty much get their order soon after the other.

I remember bfl staff mentioning the pre order number around 5000, but I cant remember where exact.

now u just round up the price per unit. Id say 70% Jalapeno 28% single and 2% rigs.. about that I recon

so 3500 x 149 + 1400 x 1299 + 100 x 29899 = 5,330,000.00 usd cha ching... beats mining

I tried doing it that way and everyone reminded me that landing on the checkout page generated an incrementing order number and a gigantic portion of them were never followed through on.  People just wanted a shipping quote something, I dunno.  So if you're order number 5000 (they also claimed 7000 btw) then 50% of the other orders may not be legit.  I do know they claimed quite a while ago to get $250,000 in pre-orders though.

Also, as for manufacturing speed, they change their mind a lot but said to the effect of they're not even shipping out products until they can fill a significant enough portion of their pre-orders.  I think their own rules mathematically add up to like 85%-ish of the pre-orders.  So yeah, everyone's getting theirs at once.

[Korbman]

hey, someone just randomly told me that at some unknown point in time, BFL said $250k.  I think it was a long time ago of course, where did you get those numbers?  Because "my order number is _____" is not a proper way to count.  Did BFL finally release some actual, verified counts?

The BFL 'SC' homepage here on the forum lol: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

It has all the documented preorders on the forum alone, but there's probably just as many that aren't documented.

Bit off topic, but how much money/ how many Ths do they have to sell to make a return on their investment?

I haven't a clue.

just imagine if the ASICS would have invested money in BTC instead of throwing it away on hardware.

What do you mean? Do you mean if BFL invested $1 million to research ASIC chips, that instead they should have invested a million into BTCs?

[Korbman]

There are 5000 actual confirmed orders apparently!!!

Also BFL claims they can manufacture 300 per 8 working hrs, so yeah, everyone will pretty much get their order soon after the other.

Where'd you hear this?

[bobitza]

There are 5000 actual confirmed orders apparently!!!

Also BFL claims they can manufacture 300 per 8 working hrs, so yeah, everyone will pretty much get their order soon after the other.

Where'd you hear this?

In BFL forums, can't remember exactly where but BFL_Josh mentioned that when the machines are installed and operational, they can crank up 300 devices per day.

[yrtrnc]

Thanx bobitza

Yes, I concur.

There are 5000 actual confirmed orders apparently!!!

Also BFL claims they can manufacture 300 per 8 working hrs, so yeah, everyone will pretty much get their order soon after the other.

Where'd you hear this?

In BFL forums, can't remember exactly where but BFL_Josh mentioned that when the machines are installed and operational, they can crank up 300 devices per day.