ion.cash "developer" a.k.a. Anonymint goes off the deep end

[ion.cash]

Mining will be unprofitable if we achieve that technical design goal. Only users that send transactions or who don't count their insignificant electricity cost will mine.

Did you just reveal that mining has a proof of burn involved because I don't see any other way for that statement to work otherwise.

I already told you that if users are required send PoW with each transaction and they don't care about their insignificant electrical cost then PoW will be unprofitable, especially if the CPU-only hash has been well designed to be within an order-of-magnitude of the potential ASIC optimization. In my recent archives (July?), smooth and I estimated this order-of-magnitude for Cryptonite at between 1 and 2, and I believe mine may be slightly better than Cryptonite.

There is your first example of me doing something technical you formerly thought is impossible. And there will be many more such cases. Stay tuned...

[TPTB_need_war]

Appears Smoothie has removed the scam accusation. Thank you Smoothie for your understanding. I will remove my complaint from Smoothie's trust.

I consider this issue closed.

[Crestington]

@TPTB_need_war

So how come you have multiple accounts you are posting with anyways, wouldn't it be better to just have one account you post with?

[TPTB_need_war]

Does it really matter why I choose to do what I do with my personal matters?

I created ion.cash username, so it will be clear the distinction between official posts for that effort to develop a coin versus anything I might post that is my personal commentary on divergent topics.

Anonymint was closed by Theymos on my request (because I didn't think of the idea of just scrambling my password, apologies to Theymos) to try to discipline myself to stop wasting so much time posting in forums.

I came back after some weeks hiatus. I tried a few more times to quit the forum by scrambling my passwords. Finally with this current username, I started to gain some traction of followers who were starting to observe that my predictions had been coming to fruition. Thus I decided not to change it even though it was a poor choice for a user name.

[Crestington]

Does it really matter why I choose to do what I do with my personal matters?

I created ion.cash username, so it will be clear the distinction between official posts for that effort to develop a coin versus anything I might post that is my personal commentary on divergent topics.

Anonymint was closed by Theymos on my request (because I didn't think of the idea of just scrambling my password, apologies to Theymos) to try to discipline myself to stop wasting so much time posting in forums.

I came back after some weeks hiatus. I tried a few more times to quit the forum by scrambling my passwords. Finally with this current username, I started to gain some traction of followers who were starting to observe that my predictions had been coming to fruition. Thus I decided not to change it even though it was a poor choice for a user name.

Fully understandable to want to keep a clear distinction, thank you for answering all my questions across this thread.

May I suggest that you take some time to look into Stan Larimars posts about Bitshares? The reason I say this is that as your project becomes to come into fruition you may find yourself getting trapped into arguments over specific points and needlessly stressing yourself out. The way that Stan handles trolling is to work it as a type of promotion because after all, negative press is still press but it is the model that counts so maybe there is one person that calls it communist greed but you know how Bitshares functions, what funds are being used for and who are the delegates so you understand those risks by investing.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1175763.0

I think I'm about done spending time on this subject, I wish you the best in your health and look forward to seeing how your project progresses

[TPTB_need_war]

Crestington I couldn't discern upthread if you were just setting me up to attack me. I see that I think you are sincere. I agree I shouldn't be doing the PR dialogue with users. There was a time when I was younger and more idealistic, when I was better suited for that. Life has beat me down and I am not so cheerful all the time (years of chronic physical pain and struggle). Maybe if my M.S. remains in remission, then some of my former passions for interacting with people and making them happy will return.

For readers who are not familiar with my regurgitations of Armstrong's models, I think the coming Little Ice Age is a very important one to be aware of:

For those who are doubting how there would be natural cycles that repeat, remember the Sun has a cycle and it deeply effects our food supply and climate which thus impacts our economy. I hope you all are ready for the Little Ice Age coming over the next decades, which will radically reduce the ability of Northern Europe and other areas to feed itself:


http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854

Maunder Minimum Petri Dish of Political Change

The global warming pseudo-scientists are desperately trying to keep their funding. Now these con artists are trying to claim that that the oceans’ surface water is cooling and below the water is warming. Those who stop driving to work, opting to walk or ride a bicycle instead, are perhaps speaking at least of what they believe, rather than crying that the planet is warming and we need to hand them billions of dollars to figure out some new technology to reverse the trend.

Meanwhile, real scientists who study the cyclical movement within nature are observing what we have been warning – a coming Ice Age, not global warming. We should see the collapse in temperatures faster than we suspect, for it will mimic a Waterfall Event in our market terminology. This is the true nature of how things simply move. Real scientists are starting to warn that we will see temperatures plummet by 2030. We are entering the Maunder Minimum Petri Dish of Political Change and nobody seems to comprehend the political ramifications ahead.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37141

Global Warming/alternately Climate Change Guide for Dummies

QUESTION: Martin,  you go into more detail about the time frame for global cooling, and its ramifications, what to do to prepare oneself etc…

ANSWER: This downturn should be greater than the last one in the 1700s according to our models. Volatility rises so the swings in climate become much more dramatic with the turn of these cycles. It is similar to a stock market crash. Once it breaks, the volatility rises and market prices appears very choppy. So there will be a burst to the upside, followed by new lows on the downside. I am in Paris. Nowhere near as warn as the States. People are wearing jackets on the street. Northern Europe never really warmed up this year. When I was here in the Spring, I had to go buy sweaters for it was much colder than I expected.

These cycles in climate were originally discovered from ice core samples from the North Pole which revealed a 300 year cycle in climate defined as the energy output of the sun. When I saw the presentation presented by Harvard scientists back in the 1980s, I immediate saw their chart was close to the 309.6 year cycle in the ECM. The sun has been documented now that it is a thermodynamic system which beats like your heart. The cycle defines maximum and minimum over a 300 year period and explains migrations and the rise and fall of civilization.

The last downturn was pretty bad. They also seem to line up with the revolution cycle. It probably aggravates society and they move toward civil unrest. Some 2500 men died at Valley Forge from exposure during the winter encampment. Clearly, this is the cycle that has driven war by conquest and is linked stimulated by a change in climate that has marked a reduction in food supply.



It will be this turn down in global cooling which will spark a rise in food prices on the horizon. The Global Warming/Climate Change crowd as always try to reduce all blame to a single factor. This type of thinking process has seriously retarded our evolutionary process. They are incapable of dynamic thinking and are incompetent insofar as just observing the world around them. They destroy our future in every possible way for their ignorance condemns us to repeat history in every field they use this primitive means of thinking – always reducing whatever the issue if to single cause and effect.

...

It appears that we would enter a White Earth Effect and die as a planet if the volcanic activity ceased. That is the source of warming up the planet again when the sun turns down. Sure, man may add to volatility, but we by no means possess the power to change the climate cycle. There is ABSOLUTELY ZERO proof the the long-term 300 years cycle has changed. People who believe this nonsense should not read this blog for you you must also be a deep-rooted Marxist and believe all the BS of governments. If you buy into that, you might as well buy into everything they say.  Only an idiot can possibly think we have the capacity to alter the universe or how it functions. We are incapable of even grasping all the variables at play.

If you have a basement, you can grow your own food without land and this may be the next hot trend.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33918

Britain Headed Back to a Mini Ice Age

We have been warning that the danger is by no means global warming, but global cooling. The energy output of the sun has turned down. Now scientists are warning that what we have reported is crashing rapidly. The collapse in the energy output of the sun is so intense that climate experts are now warning that the amount of light energy released by the sun is dropping to levels “not seen for centuries”.

The collapse in the energy output of the sun functions on about a 300-year cycle or roughly six waves of the ECM 51.6 year frequency creating the 309.6-year wave. The 1400s saw the Black Death and the start of Capitalism as serfdom came to an end and wages reappeared for the first time on any major widespread level since the fall of Rome in 476 AD.  Roughly, three 309.6-year waves brings us to the Black Death. The next wave takes us into the 1700s and the fall of Monarchy with the American and French Revolutions.

It was time for the peak in global warming and turning this down sharply once again. The problem is that this seems to correlate with plagues and disease as well. So those looking for global warming, you better move south.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35118

We Are in the 21st Year of Declining Temperatures

It is amazing how government is trying to claim the existence of global warming, simply to introduce a carbon tax. We are entering the 21st year of declining temperatures; not rising temperatures. This is akin to the tax on cigarettes; people smoked less and governments cried that they were losing revenue, causing many places to tax electronic cigarettes. Governments are also losing tax revenue as cars have become more efficient. Gasoline sales have declined as many cars now have pollution controls with better gas mileage. Additionally, more people are buying from the internet and driving to the local mall less. The solution to the collapse in tax revenues: states are now preparing to tax people based upon the number of miles they drive, requiring odometer readings to register cars. It is never about what they pretend to care about – it is just a new scheme to raise taxes. Regardless of the truth about global warming, governments need this bogus research to raise taxes.

The global warming crowd is the MOST unethical and corrupt group of pretend scientists ever to exist. When I was called upon for research to form the G5, I wrote the White House a warning that manipulating the dollar down would create volatility and a crash within two years (1987). I was told I would never again be asked by government for anything. They told me outright that I was to conduct the studies –– government would provide the conclusion up front –– and I would earn millions each year for bogus research reports. I said, “No thanks!” This is how the government conducts and funds studies. They ALWAYS tout the desired end result to support some predetermined objective. Government studies are simply an exercise in political corruption, no matter what the field.

Global warming is another great scam. Clearing the air – yes, we all want that. Yet it is extremely arrogant to assume we have the capability to alter the climate cycle.

[r0ach]

Mining will be unprofitable if we achieve that technical design goal. Only users that send transactions or who don't count their insignificant electricity cost will mine.

Did you just reveal that mining has a proof of burn involved because I don't see any other way for that statement to work otherwise.

I already told you that if users are required send PoW with each transaction and they don't care about their insignificant electrical cost then PoW will be unprofitable, especially if the CPU-only hash has been well designed to be within an order-of-magnitude of the potential ASIC optimization. In my recent archives (July?), smooth and I estimated this order-of-magnitude for Cryptonite at between 1 and 2, and I believe mine may be slightly better than Cryptonite.

There is your first example of me doing something technical you formerly thought is impossible. And there will be many more such cases. Stay tuned...

Oh, you're using PoW for what it was actually created for...who would have guessed haha.

[TPTB_need_war]

This post isn't about me. I haven't figured life out. There is a time we push hard (for me that is almost as non-stop as I can, often wasting time to my consternation), and there is a time to reflect. People are different, have different periods of their life, different moods, different motivations (sometimes good and other times drifting off the good path). I am not preaching. For example, I don't know if the things I do in life will amount to anything good at the end. Sometimes I get inspired. Other times I am discouraged. I am not really a level person, unless you consider "full speed ahead" until hit the breaking limit and then regroup. Some other times I get into a good rhythm of balance, especially when I don't have any outside influences and in my own little world of thinking and creating. So with that, I share this melodrama.

Mary Gauthier, "Mercy Now"

Mary Gauthier "Drag Queens In Limousines" (I am from New Orleans so I like weird music like this)

Okay back to coding. I need to get out of this thread. Please.

I respect your differences. Be who you are. I don't want you to be me.

[Crestington]

Crestington I couldn't discern upthread if you were just setting me up to attack me. I see that I think you are sincere. I agree I shouldn't be doing the PR dialogue with users. There was a time when I was younger and more idealistic, when I was better suited for that. Life has beat me down and I am not so cheerful all the time (years of chronic physical pain and struggle). Maybe if my M.S. remains in remission, then some of my former passions for interacting with people and making them happy will return.

No, not out to attack you because I also value my own reputation and it's not conductive for me to spend my time trying to tear someone down for no reason but to push some buttons, that's when you are more likely to get answers. I think it's probably better to do more PR with users, not less because then you get a little desensitized to trolling or negative input, if you were to only spend your time coding then it's a bit of a shock to the system when you come out of that bubble. For me, I would rather that someone would tell me what I am doing wrong rather than just to say "good job" because an affirmation is not really beneficial to progress, they may be wrong in their assertion but I would have a different viewpoint in which to evaluate the direction I am heading.

I love a good debate though, I even love the meme culture of Bitcointalk, there is a lot of very creative people around here.

[TPTB_need_war]

Sometimes I work on a Theory of Everything.

Why Armstrong Can Predict The Future Inspite of the Butterfly Effect of Chaos

Let me thank you all for your insight and reasoning. IMHO, there's nothing you can "definitely" predict under any circumstances. In any case you would be subjected to that "tiny" turbulence within the chaotic spin of the series of events that will ruin your soup. I've been talking about this with a Jew friend over the net and he said to me "this is all BS - no one knows WTF will happen". He added though, that this kind of predictions have the "attractor" effect (ie: They tend to "create" the "circumstances" for it to happen).

In Physics terms it's just like triggering the double pendulum in order to pinpoint a certain trajectory within the next -short time- period (after a long while, it won't truly matter). I know the above may sound bogus, but they do have a great logical and scientific basis. Nevertheless, I cannot say for sure that that's the way things work...

PS:
Today's the day you know. The end of the 49 year cycle of Shemitah and the beginning of Jubilee year. Let's see what the cat will bring in...

I bring to readers' attention the link to my posts within that "triggering the double pendulum" argument about the unpredictability of the Butterfly Effect of chaos.

Order is relative to the observer. For the macroscopic observer, the chaos at the microscopic level is significantly irrelevant to the order that is perceived at the macroscopic level. This can be further extended to the chaos (Butterfly Effect) we perceive at the human level, is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Earth perceives relative to the Sun's cycles. This can be further extended to the chaos the solar system perceives is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Milky Way galaxy perceives.

And these relative perspectives are not just on the scale from microscopic to macroscopic, but also in terms of the number of dimensions considered. For example, if a human considers space and time orthogonally (what most humans perceive except for the occasional Doppler effect that humans can typically perceive with their senses), one gets a different reality than if one considers spacetime as in relativity (what governs quantum mechanics and astrophysics). Armstrong's model has pulled such multi-dimensional order out of what we normally perceives as chaotic because we only consider the market price data in one or two orthogonal dimensions.

...

Before i sleep, some links:

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+hidden+order

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10890931#msg10890931

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9566419#msg9566419



See also his entropy model for a stochastic momentum model.

Edit: the "strange attactor" is a hidden order in what normally appears to be chaotic from a different perspective. Thus finding that order is about reorienting your perspective:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/economic-thought/by-topic/chaos-theory

The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a wave form and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Therefore, Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory investigates the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and subtle changes in the input can created drastic alternative in the outcome. This has been explained as the “effect” which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Slight differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general without comprehending dynamic analysis that is cyclical based.

This chaos that appears is complex, yet it masks a hidden order beneath. The complexity of variables creates the illusion that these systems are unpredictable yet they can be extremely deterministic when viewed correctly. The future behavior of such systems is entirely determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved whatsoever. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems allows them to be predictable when approached objectively by a computer eliminating the randomness of human judgment. This type of behavior is best described as Deterministic Chaos.

Edit#2: Why Cycles Must Exist

I provided a theoretical proof of that in my 2012 essay on the The Universe in the section Matter as a continuum.

Armstrong explained it with less theoretical precision than I did above.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/11934

Understanding that everything in nature moves in a cyclical manner is vital to comprehending the world around us. This is how energy moves. The waves in the ocean give the impression the water is moving when in fact if you throw a bottle that floats into the water you will notice that the bottle rises and falls but does not move with the waves that pass below. WHY? Because the wave is just energy moving THROUGH the water, not the water itself moving. Water movement is the current that takes place separate and distinct from the wave movement.

Once you wake up and begin to see that energy moves THROUGH the medium be it space, the air, or crowds of people causing collective behavior we call panic, then you can begin to see the world in a whole new light. This fall, we will see more chaos in weather.

Armstrong's point is that energy is required for change, i.e. for any system to be alive and not static and dead or in other words for any system to exist and be perceived. Without energy, life does not exist. And then he notes that energy moves as a wave through a medium.

But why a wave (i.e. with a frequency and thus a cycle)? Friction. Without friction, then the speed-of-light would be infinite and the past and present would collapse into an infinitesimal point and nothing would exist. You see that for energy to exist, friction is required. But friction then gives rise to momentum and inertia. And momentum and inertia cause overshoots and undershoots, which thus leads to oscillation and coupling (resonance). And thus the fundamental matter of the universe is frequency and phase.

[r0ach]

I don't know much about Armstrong.  I have a feeling it's not really modeling any of this stuff to the extent people claim, and is only using primitive calculations like figuring out the total amount of liquid capital on earth, finding what markets it resides in, then just like how wind is a pressure gradient, uses past market history as a prediction model, then calculates where money flows from there.

So yea, it's a lot of work linking together all those prediction models of each sector, but it could give you very accurate analysis.  The only problem is, you're not being told to "buy google on X day", you're just being told when things like gold are likely to be in a bear or bull market.  This prediction analysis is probably used to shave money from the market with indexes yearly, and I bet it gets them wrong a decent amount of time as well.  There's no way it can't get things wrong a lot when we have a centrally controlled market unless he has a friend working at the 50 tentacle squid.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

[/quote]

This photo illustrates the distance from any bird to its closest neighbor is less than some value.  Simple beauty.

[r0ach]

This guy's post and my response to it I think define what "Blockchain 3.0" will be and what metrics are actually important for it:

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,18434.0.html

[TPTB_need_war]

Okay this is a narcissistic post, but since I want to respond, might as well do so here where my reputation was called into question. Again I am not claiming this exonerates me or anything. I believe I still need to prove something. I share my reply to Charles...

Anonymint, good to see you're still around. Ethereum was a joint effort with many people involved from the beginning. I did my part as did Vitalik and the rest; apparently, the Ethereum org doesn't want to call me a founder thus I guess my role was minimal, but it was a lot of fun. It is true Mint and I had many discussions about finance both during my time at Invictus and after. My memory fails to recall all the things that were said, but I do like his outside of the box thinking and also love of Scala. Although I'm still a Haskell man.

Cheers

Charles thanks for the unexpected post. I didn't realize you were lurking or someone had messaged you that I mentioned our past discussions before I bowed out. Again sorry I let you down, but I was really preoccupied with this Multiple Sclerosis battle. I was trying to remain productive but there was no way I could accept the responsibility of the scale of fund raising that I felt was likely to be contemplated (even though you weren't mentioning funding at that time, I had an intuition). And at that time I was thinking if ever I did work on a coin, I wanted to do so anonymously and I realized that was not the direction you were headed. And my ideas were not fully developed and I thought I could develop them without outside pressure. I expected my M.S. to have been cured in 2013 or 2014, so I thought my progress would be faster. In hindsight, I did just about everything wrong with my diet which worsened my condition. So yeah now here we are, and it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Interesting that all the same set of guys are still working on crypto, e.g. Daniel Larimar, Fuseleer, Vitalik Buterin, Gregory Maxwell, Adam Back, Nick Szabo, Fluffypony, jl777 of SuperNet, the Dogecoin devs, the other Nxt devs, and perhaps myself (Shelby Moore III or AnonyMint) but I don't yet deserve a mention with those names, etc..

Any such list wouldn't be complete without paying tribute to the late Hal Finney.

Btw, I did try messaging him in 2013 and suggesting some of the supplements I was experimenting with at the time such as AHCC (which I think cured my probable lingering high strain HPV infection, because my blood test in late 2012 confirmed very high lymphocytes load but I suppose that could have been the M.S.) and high dose vitamin D3. I realize now that ALS is such a fast moving and probably genetic condition that there probably isn't any hope that gut dysbiosys is the cause. So even someone like myself who has been suffering, has to be humbled by what he went through. At least I hear there is no pain with ALS, but I doubt that is much of a consolation.

[TPTB_need_war]

I don't know much about Armstrong.  I have a feeling it's not really modeling any of this stuff to the extent people claim, and is only using primitive calculations like figuring out the total amount of liquid capital on earth, finding what markets it resides in, then just like how wind is a pressure gradient, uses past market history as a prediction model, then calculates where money flows from there.

So yea, it's a lot of work linking together all those prediction models of each sector, but it could give you very accurate analysis.  The only problem is, you're not being told to "buy google on X day", you're just being told when things like gold are likely to be in a bear or bull market.  This prediction analysis is probably used to shave money from the market with indexes yearly, and I bet it gets them wrong a decent amount of time as well.  There's no way it can't get things wrong a lot when we have a centrally controlled market, unless he has a friend working at the 50 tentacle squid.

Armstrong has stated that predicting specific events and the short-term is much more noisy. Precisely for the reasons I have stated, which is that the chaos relevant to our needs is much more dominant in that case.

His model is incorporating the largest database every assembled on this subject matter. He invested over $1 billion in inflation adjusted dollars just compiling the database. His A.I. models have searched for hidden order in many dimensions. And thus the model is likely more sophisticated than you are contemplating.

It does do short-term prediction, but with time and price as orthogonal predictions, thus leaving a wide variability for outcomes. For example, back when oil was $100+ the model predicted that if time and price coincided, then the closing price for 2014 for oil could be $54, which was precisely the outcome.

So yes the big turns of major macro economic trends are much more predictable. For example, during the minor correction in August 2012 he predicted that the DJIA stock market would reach at least 18500 by 2015. It was unclear if the phase transition would be before 2015.75 or after, and it was dependent on whether the public confidence in US stock market would invert its public vs. private role and join private assets for their renewed bull market after 2015.75. He said he would know by end of 2014. So now it is clear that the DJIA has paused and the predicted run to 30,000 - 40,000 level will be delayed until 2017 (with the USA collapsing after 2017.9 on the ECM turn). And the explanation for the strong dollar and DJIA coming is because the rest of the world is $9 trillion short the dollar in dollar bond issues that were the carry trade from the QE. The Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates because otherwise pension funds will go bankrupt and besides as the speculators follow the trend into dollars, then they will exit bonds and into stocks because of the bull market. This will cause more short covering on the dollar and a self-feeding spiral will ensue. The Fed won't be setting interest rates, the markets will and the Fed will follow otherwise it loses credibility.

[monsterer]

Not sure what thread is now the right place to post technical questions, so gonna post here:

* If there is no mining incentive, why mine the chain?

* If difficulty is low enough for joe public to mine their own transactions (and assuming only the sender can mine his own transactions), doesn't that open the chain to attack by server farms under the control of one individual?

[TPTB_need_war]

Not sure what thread is now the right place to post technical questions, so gonna post here:

* If there is no mining incentive, why mine the chain?

* If difficulty is low enough for joe public to mine their own transactions (and assuming only the sender can mine his own transactions), doesn't that open the chain to attack by server farms under the control of one individual?

I'll bring that technical discussion to my thread and under the official ion.cash username. Wait a few minutes, I have some other posts to complete first.

This guy's post and my response to it I think define what "Blockchain 3.0" will be and what metrics are actually important for it:

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,18434.0.html

r0ach, I will reply to this on your thread.

[Crestington]

I don't know much about Armstrong.  I have a feeling it's not really modeling any of this stuff to the extent people claim, and is only using primitive calculations like figuring out the total amount of liquid capital on earth, finding what markets it resides in, then just like how wind is a pressure gradient, uses past market history as a prediction model, then calculates where money flows from there.

So yea, it's a lot of work linking together all those prediction models of each sector, but it could give you very accurate analysis.  The only problem is, you're not being told to "buy google on X day", you're just being told when things like gold are likely to be in a bear or bull market.  This prediction analysis is probably used to shave money from the market with indexes yearly, and I bet it gets them wrong a decent amount of time as well.  There's no way it can't get things wrong a lot when we have a centrally controlled market, unless he has a friend working at the 50 tentacle squid.

Armstrong has stated that predicting specific events and the short-term is much more noisy. Precisely for the reasons I have stated, which is that the chaos relevant to our needs is much more dominant in that case.

His model is incorporating the largest database every assembled on this subject matter. He invested over $1 billion in inflation adjusted dollars just compiling the database. His A.I. models have searched for hidden order in many dimensions. And thus the model is likely more sophisticated than you are contemplating.

It does do short-term prediction, but with time and price as orthogonal predictions, thus leaving a wide variability for outcomes. For example, back when oil was $100+ the model predicted that if time and price coincided, then the closing price for 2014 for oil could be $54, which was precisely the outcome.

So yes the big turns of major macro economic trends are much more predictable. For example, back in 2012 he predicted that the DJIA stock market would reach at least 18500 by 2015. It was unclear if the phase transition would be before 2015.75 or after, and it was dependent on whether the public confidence in US stock market would invert its public vs. private role and join private assets for their renewed bull market after 2015.75.

This one stuck out to me as one that did not fit as a trend that we would see an ice age by 2030.

We Are in the 21st Year of Declining Temperatures

It is amazing how government is trying to claim the existence of global warming, simply to introduce a carbon tax. We are entering the 21st year of declining temperatures; not rising temperatures. This is akin to the tax on cigarettes; people smoked less and governments cried that they were losing revenue, causing many places to tax electronic cigarettes. Governments are also losing tax revenue as cars have become more efficient. Gasoline sales have declined as many cars now have pollution controls with better gas mileage. Additionally, more people are buying from the internet and driving to the local mall less. The solution to the collapse in tax revenues: states are now preparing to tax people based upon the number of miles they drive, requiring odometer readings to register cars. It is never about what they pretend to care about – it is just a new scheme to raise taxes. Regardless of the truth about global warming, governments need this bogus research to raise taxes.

The global warming crowd is the MOST unethical and corrupt group of pretend scientists ever to exist. When I was called upon for research to form the G5, I wrote the White House a warning that manipulating the dollar down would create volatility and a crash within two years (1987). I was told I would never again be asked by government for anything. They told me outright that I was to conduct the studies –– government would provide the conclusion up front –– and I would earn millions each year for bogus research reports. I said, “No thanks!” This is how the government conducts and funds studies. They ALWAYS tout the desired end result to support some predetermined objective. Government studies are simply an exercise in political corruption, no matter what the field.

Global warming is another great scam. Clearing the air – yes, we all want that. Yet it is extremely arrogant to assume we have the capability to alter the climate cycle.

The reason I say this is that in the last 20 years we have seen the hottest years on record. I have been through many places, snow has declined, summers have been hotter and this is through observation, when I was a kid the winters were much colder, more snow, and the summers were cooler. Would it not be arrogant to assume that we do not have the capacity to alter the climate with our billions of people, cars, factories and fossil fuels to warm the climate?

This is not negating that the government would doctor studies for their own personal gain but to say one study is saying climate change is not happening is a poor data set to go by because I can link to another article that says the complete opposite such as this one on the reduction of the polar icecaps over the last 20 years.

http://www.dw.com/en/polar-ice-sheets-melting-faster-than-ever/a-16432199

[TPTB_need_war]

The reason I say this is that in the last 20 years we have seen the hottest years on record.

Volatility has been greater perhaps but fact is we have a 21 year cooling trend and the powers-that-be have been funding lies.

And humans can't alter the climate. They can alter their environment yes. But we can't have that debate here. There is an entire thread about that in Politics & Society thread entitled something like, "Reddit bans debate on Global Warming".

The debate is uninteresting to me. Only people who haven't really studied the science or who lack IQ (or rationality and motivation) will think there is still a question on this matter. For example, the smart posters such as Spendulus and Wilikon know this.

I am saying I don't want to debate it. Waste of my time. Apologies I am not trying to be condescending to you. I hope you expend the effort I did to study. I am done on that topic. I raise your attention to the Little Ice Age that is already starting. Btw, anecdotal the weather is getting much cooler in the Philippines. Used to be so damn hot here when I first arrived in the 1990s. Now I can jog in the middle of the day. Maybe I've acclimated, but we have all these other strange effects going on such as severe drought. The USA climate is radically changing too with drought and the Pacific NorthWet is now the NorthDry. My mother in Washington State loves the change in the climate. I went into great detail about how the volatility in warming was part of the shift into global cooling some where in my archives of one of my usernames. I can't possibly go dig that up now.

Edit: a Little Ice Age is not the same as an ice age. It is sufficient lowering of temperature to cause drastic climate effects which impact food supply and natural disaster frequency. It will not be ice every where.

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The reason I say this is that in the last 20 years we have seen the hottest years on record.

Volatility has been greater perhaps but fact is we have a 21 year cooling trend and the powers-that-be been funding lies.

There is not really a cooling "trend" shown by his source. Armstrong's wording is misleading. If you click through, the text says "22nd year without statistically significant warming trend" (which is not at all the same as a cooling trend) and you can see from the graph there that a peak from 21 years ago has not been exceeded, but during those subsequent years there is no real trend (and also notice that those later years overall appear higher than the years before the peak, which suggests another interpretation)