BldSwtTrs
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September 13, 2015, 08:59:10 AM |
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There are two videos that have a link between M. Armstrong, TPTB, Bitcoin and the forthcoming economic collapse of Sept. 2015. I never came along those two vids until today; which I find particularly odd regarding the information I'm receiving during each day. I believe we all should watch them and discuss them here. Spend 1hr. Worths it. Video 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkELgi6EkNoVideo 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rQaKUwOWAEThe Dollar Vigilante guy (Berwick) recommends getting your assets out of the US beginning in the fall and predicts the US to be ground zero. He says to buy gold and silver. Martin Armstrong recommends the exact opposite. He expects the US to be the last man standing and for the USD to be supreme throughout 2016 and into 2017 before a major turning point in 2018. Interesting. You really can't follow both sets of advice at once. They are complete opposites. Holding Swiss Francs may be the closest you can get. It's outside the US as Berwick stresses, and the Swiss economy will likely be one of the last men standing, despite not being big enough to take in all the BIG MONEY. Really? I don't think so. Watched video 1. Haven't watched 2. The difference is more about timing, rather than actual outcome. Berwick say Sept 2015 (but adds caveat saying could be beginning). TPTB agrees with outcome, but adds a 2 year lag before events set in. How i understood it anyways Well, yeah, I'm talking about investing over the next year or so. In that time period, you have to choose whether you want to be in the US or out. Berwick says out. Watched the two videos, wasted 1 hour of my life. The guy explains that the CERN has 666 in its logo, and because the USA do military exercises and because Fabius talk about 500 days in an totally unrelated matter something will happen in September, but maybe not because the release of his first video may have rushed the krach, but maybe they will be another krach, but anyway if nothing happens in September and you subscribe to his newsletter you will be ok. Seriously? It's really, really dumb. He just want to sell something, and he looks in bad shape. |
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TPTB_need_war
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September 13, 2015, 09:29:36 AM
Last edit: September 13, 2015, 09:46:59 AM by TPTB_need_war |
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For those who are doubting how there would be natural cycles that repeat, remember the Sun has a cycle and it deeply effects our food supply and climate which thus impacts our economy. I hope you all are ready for the Little Ice Age coming over the next decades, which will radically reduce the ability of Northern Europe and other areas to feed itself: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854Maunder Minimum Petri Dish of Political ChangeThe global warming pseudo-scientists are desperately trying to keep their funding. Now these con artists are trying to claim that that the oceans’ surface water is cooling and below the water is warming. Those who stop driving to work, opting to walk or ride a bicycle instead, are perhaps speaking at least of what they believe, rather than crying that the planet is warming and we need to hand them billions of dollars to figure out some new technology to reverse the trend. Meanwhile, real scientists who study the cyclical movement within nature are observing what we have been warning – a coming Ice Age, not global warming. We should see the collapse in temperatures faster than we suspect, for it will mimic a Waterfall Event in our market terminology. This is the true nature of how things simply move. Real scientists are starting to warn that we will see temperatures plummet by 2030. We are entering the Maunder Minimum Petri Dish of Political Change and nobody seems to comprehend the political ramifications ahead. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37141Global Warming/alternately Climate Change Guide for DummiesQUESTION: Martin, you go into more detail about the time frame for global cooling, and its ramifications, what to do to prepare oneself etc… ANSWER: This downturn should be greater than the last one in the 1700s according to our models. Volatility rises so the swings in climate become much more dramatic with the turn of these cycles. It is similar to a stock market crash. Once it breaks, the volatility rises and market prices appears very choppy. So there will be a burst to the upside, followed by new lows on the downside. I am in Paris. Nowhere near as warn as the States. People are wearing jackets on the street. Northern Europe never really warmed up this year. When I was here in the Spring, I had to go buy sweaters for it was much colder than I expected. These cycles in climate were originally discovered from ice core samples from the North Pole which revealed a 300 year cycle in climate defined as the energy output of the sun. When I saw the presentation presented by Harvard scientists back in the 1980s, I immediate saw their chart was close to the 309.6 year cycle in the ECM. The sun has been documented now that it is a thermodynamic system which beats like your heart. The cycle defines maximum and minimum over a 300 year period and explains migrations and the rise and fall of civilization. The last downturn was pretty bad. They also seem to line up with the revolution cycle. It probably aggravates society and they move toward civil unrest. Some 2500 men died at Valley Forge from exposure during the winter encampment. Clearly, this is the cycle that has driven war by conquest and is linked stimulated by a change in climate that has marked a reduction in food supply.  It will be this turn down in global cooling which will spark a rise in food prices on the horizon. The Global Warming/Climate Change crowd as always try to reduce all blame to a single factor. This type of thinking process has seriously retarded our evolutionary process. They are incapable of dynamic thinking and are incompetent insofar as just observing the world around them. They destroy our future in every possible way for their ignorance condemns us to repeat history in every field they use this primitive means of thinking – always reducing whatever the issue if to single cause and effect. ... It appears that we would enter a White Earth Effect and die as a planet if the volcanic activity ceased. That is the source of warming up the planet again when the sun turns down. Sure, man may add to volatility, but we by no means possess the power to change the climate cycle. There is ABSOLUTELY ZERO proof the the long-term 300 years cycle has changed. People who believe this nonsense should not read this blog for you you must also be a deep-rooted Marxist and believe all the BS of governments. If you buy into that, you might as well buy into everything they say. Only an idiot can possibly think we have the capacity to alter the universe or how it functions. We are incapable of even grasping all the variables at play. If you have a basement, you can grow your own food without land and this may be the next hot trend. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33918Britain Headed Back to a Mini Ice Age
We have been warning that the danger is by no means global warming, but global cooling. The energy output of the sun has turned down. Now scientists are warning that what we have reported is crashing rapidly. The collapse in the energy output of the sun is so intense that climate experts are now warning that the amount of light energy released by the sun is dropping to levels “not seen for centuries”.
The collapse in the energy output of the sun functions on about a 300-year cycle or roughly six waves of the ECM 51.6 year frequency creating the 309.6-year wave. The 1400s saw the Black Death and the start of Capitalism as serfdom came to an end and wages reappeared for the first time on any major widespread level since the fall of Rome in 476 AD. Roughly, three 309.6-year waves brings us to the Black Death. The next wave takes us into the 1700s and the fall of Monarchy with the American and French Revolutions.
It was time for the peak in global warming and turning this down sharply once again. The problem is that this seems to correlate with plagues and disease as well. So those looking for global warming, you better move south. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35118We Are in the 21st Year of Declining TemperaturesIt is amazing how government is trying to claim the existence of global warming, simply to introduce a carbon tax. We are entering the 21st year of declining temperatures; not rising temperatures. This is akin to the tax on cigarettes; people smoked less and governments cried that they were losing revenue, causing many places to tax electronic cigarettes. Governments are also losing tax revenue as cars have become more efficient. Gasoline sales have declined as many cars now have pollution controls with better gas mileage. Additionally, more people are buying from the internet and driving to the local mall less. The solution to the collapse in tax revenues: states are now preparing to tax people based upon the number of miles they drive, requiring odometer readings to register cars. It is never about what they pretend to care about – it is just a new scheme to raise taxes. Regardless of the truth about global warming, governments need this bogus research to raise taxes. The global warming crowd is the MOST unethical and corrupt group of pretend scientists ever to exist. When I was called upon for research to form the G5, I wrote the White House a warning that manipulating the dollar down would create volatility and a crash within two years (1987). I was told I would never again be asked by government for anything. They told me outright that I was to conduct the studies –– government would provide the conclusion up front –– and I would earn millions each year for bogus research reports. I said, “No thanks!” This is how the government conducts and funds studies. They ALWAYS tout the desired end result to support some predetermined objective. Government studies are simply an exercise in political corruption, no matter what the field. Global warming is another great scam. Clearing the air – yes, we all want that. Yet it is extremely arrogant to assume we have the capability to alter the climate cycle. |
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macsga
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Strange, yet attractive.
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September 13, 2015, 11:33:59 AM |
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Let me thank you all for your insight and reasoning. IMHO, there's nothing you can "definitely" predict under any circumstances. In any case you would be subjected to that "tiny" turbulence within the chaotic spin of the series of events that will ruin your soup. I've been talking about this with a Jew friend over the net and he said to me "this is all BS - no one knows WTF will happen". He added though, that this kind of predictions have the "attractor" effect (ie: They tend to "create" the "circumstances" for it to happen). In Physics terms it's just like triggering the double pendulum in order to pinpoint a certain trajectory within the next -short time- period (after a long while, it won't truly matter). I know the above may sound bogus, but they do have a great logical and scientific basis. Nevertheless, I cannot say for sure that that's the way things work... PS: Today's the day you know. The end of the 49 year cycle of Shemitah and the beginning of Jubilee year. Let's see what the cat will bring in... |
Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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BldSwtTrs
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September 13, 2015, 04:20:52 PM |
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Why would 10% of offshore borrowing be in trouble due to rates rising by 0.25 point? Also, barring QE, the Fed only command the short term part of the interest curve. I guess the loans in USD are mainly long-term loans. |
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tabnloz
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September 13, 2015, 05:08:56 PM |
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Why would 10% of offshore borrowing be in trouble due to rates rising by 0.25 point? Also, barring QE, the Fed only command the short term part of the interest curve. I guess the loans in USD are mainly long-term loans. I'm not saying 10% would get into trouble, but in the event of a full blown crisis, the percentage numbers would be getting up there. The main point is that the amount of debt out there (corporate, EM, etc all predicated on zero rates) means only small amount of failures equals big trouble. 0.25% isn't much per se, but it would a) signal to the market the start of a rising cycle (reversing of carry trade) and b) increase the difference between EM currencies & USD (sell US bonds instead of buying, paid out in USD, convert to EM currency to support local $).. or is my understanding flawed? |
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BldSwtTrs
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September 13, 2015, 06:54:15 PM |
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Why would 10% of offshore borrowing be in trouble due to rates rising by 0.25 point? Also, barring QE, the Fed only command the short term part of the interest curve. I guess the loans in USD are mainly long-term loans. I'm not saying 10% would get into trouble, but in the event of a full blown crisis, the percentage numbers would be getting up there. The main point is that the amount of debt out there (corporate, EM, etc all predicated on zero rates) means only small amount of failures equals big trouble. 0.25% isn't much per se, but it would a) signal to the market the start of a rising cycle (reversing of carry trade) and b) increase the difference between EM currencies & USD (sell US bonds instead of buying, paid out in USD, convert to EM currency to support local $).. or is my understanding flawed? I don't know if your understanding is flawed or not. I just wanted to say that I am not sure a hypothetical increase of rates would be that disastrous for the EM. There would be several forces in play, it's hard to say which one would dominate. |
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OROBTC (OP)
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September 13, 2015, 07:08:56 PM |
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Why would 10% of offshore borrowing be in trouble due to rates rising by 0.25 point? Also, barring QE, the Fed only command the short term part of the interest curve. I guess the loans in USD are mainly long-term loans. I'm not saying 10% would get into trouble, but in the event of a full blown crisis, the percentage numbers would be getting up there. The main point is that the amount of debt out there (corporate, EM, etc all predicated on zero rates) means only small amount of failures equals big trouble. 0.25% isn't much per se, but it would a) signal to the market the start of a rising cycle (reversing of carry trade) and b) increase the difference between EM currencies & USD (sell US bonds instead of buying, paid out in USD, convert to EM currency to support local $).. or is my understanding flawed? I don't know if your understanding is flawed or not. I just wanted to say that I am not sure a hypothetical increase of rates would be that disastrous for the EM. There would be several forces in play, it's hard to say which one would dominate. Something that is important to figure into calculations is that a rise of 25 basis points (0.25%) from, say 0.125% (midpoint of the FED's 0% - 0.25% desired range) is that 0.25% rise is 200% greater than the current rate!So, it is not quite true to say that a "measly 0.25% raise" means nothing. The great unwind of derivatives and the banking system is going to be complex with MANY SURPRISES. Armstrong has an impressive record noticing trends that most other analysts miss. Ignore him at your peril. That does NOT mean that he will be 100% right. No one is. We will soon see re Armstrong and TPTB re gold and BTC. |
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TPTB_need_war
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September 13, 2015, 08:15:41 PM
Last edit: September 13, 2015, 10:36:02 PM by TPTB_need_war |
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Why Armstrong Can Predict The Future Inspite of the Butterfly Effect of ChaosLet me thank you all for your insight and reasoning. IMHO, there's nothing you can "definitely" predict under any circumstances. In any case you would be subjected to that "tiny" turbulence within the chaotic spin of the series of events that will ruin your soup. I've been talking about this with a Jew friend over the net and he said to me "this is all BS - no one knows WTF will happen". He added though, that this kind of predictions have the "attractor" effect (ie: They tend to "create" the "circumstances" for it to happen). In Physics terms it's just like triggering the double pendulum in order to pinpoint a certain trajectory within the next -short time- period (after a long while, it won't truly matter). I know the above may sound bogus, but they do have a great logical and scientific basis. Nevertheless, I cannot say for sure that that's the way things work... PS: Today's the day you know. The end of the 49 year cycle of Shemitah and the beginning of Jubilee year. Let's see what the cat will bring in... I bring to readers' attention the link to my posts within that "triggering the double pendulum" argument about the unpredictability of the Butterfly Effect of chaos. Order is relative to the observer. For the macroscopic observer, the chaos at the microscopic level is significantly irrelevant to the order that is perceived at the macroscopic level. This can be further extended to the chaos (Butterfly Effect) we perceive at the human level, is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Earth perceives relative to the Sun's cycles. This can be further extended to the chaos the solar system perceives is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Milky Way galaxy perceives. And these relative perspectives are not just on the scale from microscopic to macroscopic, but also in terms of the number of dimensions considered. For example, if a human considers space and time orthogonally (what most humans perceive except for the occasional Doppler effect that humans can typically perceive with their senses), one gets a different reality than if one considers spacetime as in relativity (what governs quantum mechanics and astrophysics). Armstrong's model has pulled such multi-dimensional order out of what we normally perceives as chaotic because we only consider the market price data in one or two orthogonal dimensions. Edit: the "strange attactor" is a hidden order in what normally appears to be chaotic from a different perspective. Thus finding that order is about reorienting your perspective: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/economic-thought/by-topic/chaos-theory The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a wave form and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.
Therefore, Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory investigates the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and subtle changes in the input can created drastic alternative in the outcome. This has been explained as the “effect” which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Slight differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general without comprehending dynamic analysis that is cyclical based.
This chaos that appears is complex, yet it masks a hidden order beneath. The complexity of variables creates the illusion that these systems are unpredictable yet they can be extremely deterministic when viewed correctly. The future behavior of such systems is entirely determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved whatsoever. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems allows them to be predictable when approached objectively by a computer eliminating the randomness of human judgment. This type of behavior is best described as Deterministic Chaos. Edit#2: Why Cycles Must ExistI provided a theoretical proof of that in my 2012 essay on the The Universe in the section Matter as a continuum. Armstrong explained it with less theoretical precision than I did above. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/11934Understanding that everything in nature moves in a cyclical manner is vital to comprehending the world around us. This is how energy moves. The waves in the ocean give the impression the water is moving when in fact if you throw a bottle that floats into the water you will notice that the bottle rises and falls but does not move with the waves that pass below. WHY? Because the wave is just energy moving THROUGH the water, not the water itself moving. Water movement is the current that takes place separate and distinct from the wave movement.
Once you wake up and begin to see that energy moves THROUGH the medium be it space, the air, or crowds of people causing collective behavior we call panic, then you can begin to see the world in a whole new light. This fall, we will see more chaos in weather. Armstrong's point is that energy is required for change, i.e. for any system to be alive and not static and dead or in other words for any system to exist and be perceived. Without energy, life does not exist. And then he notes that energy moves as a wave through a medium. But why a wave (i.e. with a frequency and thus a cycle)? Friction. Without friction, then the speed-of-light would be infinite and the past and present would collapse into an infinitesimal point and nothing would exist. You see that for energy to exist, friction is required. But friction then gives rise to momentum and inertia. And momentum and inertia cause overshoots and undershoots, which thus leads to oscillation and coupling (resonance). And thus the fundamental matter of the universe is frequency and phase. 
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charleshoskinson
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CEO of IOHK
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September 13, 2015, 09:08:08 PM |
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Anonymint, good to see you're still around. Ethereum was a joint effort with many people involved from the beginning. I did my part as did Vitalik and the rest; apparently, the Ethereum org doesn't want to call me a founder thus I guess my role was minimal, but it was a lot of fun. It is true Mint and I had many discussions about finance both during my time at Invictus and after. My memory fails to recall all the things that were said, but I do like his outside of the box thinking and also love of Scala. Although I'm still a Haskell man.
Cheers
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The revolution begins with the mind and ends with the heart. Knowledge for all, accessible to all and shared by all
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jehst
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September 13, 2015, 09:15:48 PM |
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Let's try to bring it back down to Earth.
The main evidence of the Sovereign Debt Big Bang is that interest rates are at a 5000 year low and are basically zero in the world's biggest economies. And it simply can't last.
That's easy enough for Carl Icahn, Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, etc. to see and warn us about without them getting into the three dimensional spacetime energy cycle stuff.
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Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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trollercoaster
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September 13, 2015, 11:56:34 PM |
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It's under reported because the people do not already realise they are Marxists, it is the norm.  |
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macsga
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Strange, yet attractive.
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September 14, 2015, 05:35:38 AM |
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Why Armstrong Can Predict The Future Inspite of the Butterfly Effect of Chaos It's a logical concept. The question is "how could one be sure"? That's my primary concern. You should understand that QM-wise, both opinions could be right. So as I wrote above, I cannot certify that my thesis is 100% correct (or Martin's and yours BTW)... On the other hand, we have proof of concept of his claiming and (fortunately) the certification is near enough. Again; I'm not saying that I'm a contrarian nor that I disagree. I just can't accept such a bold claim without first testing it thoroughly. Which is what I'm currently doing by observing his posts and predictions (and secretly testing the math behind it). It would really be awesome if he's right, you know! But of course, the opposite would have been awesome as well...  |
Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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tabnloz
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September 14, 2015, 05:52:24 AM |
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Could Brazil be the canary in the Sovereign debt crisis coal mine? Here's a WSJ post from Dec 14 http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/31/who-are-the-biggest-emerging-market-dollar-borrowers/Since 2008 $188bn corporate debt, Petrobras issued $40bn in dollar bonds. Article also points out that last two times the dollar has strengthened during a lending boom there was the Latin crisis of the 80's and Asian crisis of the 90's And since Dec 14, commodities and the Reais has only further declined. |
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TPTB_need_war
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September 14, 2015, 08:26:57 AM |
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I don't know much about Armstrong. I have a feeling it's not really modeling any of this stuff to the extent people claim, and is only using primitive calculations like figuring out the total amount of liquid capital on earth, finding what markets it resides in, then just like how wind is a pressure gradient, uses past market history as a prediction model, then calculates where money flows from there.
So yea, it's a lot of work linking together all those prediction models of each sector, but it could give you very accurate analysis. The only problem is, you're not being told to "buy google on X day", you're just being told when things like gold are likely to be in a bear or bull market. This prediction analysis is probably used to shave money from the market with indexes yearly, and I bet it gets them wrong a decent amount of time as well. There's no way it can't get things wrong a lot when we have a centrally controlled market, unless he has a friend working at the 50 tentacle squid.
Armstrong has stated that predicting specific events and the short-term is much more noisy. Precisely for the reasons I have stated, which is that the chaos relevant to our needs is much more dominant in that case. His model is incorporating the largest database every assembled on this subject matter. He invested over $1 billion in inflation adjusted dollars just compiling the database. His A.I. models have searched for hidden order in many dimensions. And thus the model is likely more sophisticated than you are contemplating. It does do short-term prediction, but with time and price as orthogonal predictions, thus leaving a wide variability for outcomes. For example, back when oil was $100+ the model predicted that if time and price coincided, then the closing price for 2014 for oil could be $54, which was precisely the outcome. So yes the big turns of major macro economic trends are much more predictable. For example, back in 2012 he predicted that the DJIA stock market would reach at least 18500 by 2015. It was unclear if the phase transition would be before 2015.75 or after, and it was dependent on whether the public confidence in US stock market would invert its public vs. private role and join private assets for their renewed bull market after 2015.75. He said he would know by end of 2014. So now it is clear that the DJIA has paused and the predicted run to 30,000 - 40,000 level will be delayed until 2017 (with the USA collapsing after 2017.9 on the ECM turn). And the explanation for the strong dollar and DJIA coming is because the rest of the world is $9 trillion short the dollar in dollar bond issues that were the carry trade from the QE. The Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates because otherwise pension funds will go bankrupt and besides as the speculators follow the trend into dollars, then they will exit bonds and into stocks because of the bull market. This will cause more short covering on the dollar and a self-feeding spiral will ensue. The Fed won't be setting interest rates, the markets will and the Fed will follow otherwise it loses credibility. |
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BldSwtTrs
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September 14, 2015, 09:02:44 AM |
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TPTB_need_war I remember initially you had forecasted BTC sub-100$ bottom in October 2015 but then you delayed the deadline to Spring 2016. What was the rationale behind this change?
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THX 1138
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September 14, 2015, 09:34:30 AM |
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I live in Britain and we've had wall-to-wall media coverage of Corbyn for what seems like months now. The latest I heard this morning on BBC Radio 4's "Today" programme was that Corbyn would prefer to stay in Europe. I think it is too early to say just what his precise plans are; if he'll be more inclusive of the more middle-ground members of the Party or not. I think Armstrong is being a little sensationalist in the way he's presenting the story, to make his point. I agree that the money printing seems rather naive. Many people here are feeling financial pain and Corbyn seems to be offering hope for them, however realistic or unrealistic that might turn out to be. |
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TPTB_need_war
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September 14, 2015, 09:36:35 AM |
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TPTB_need_war I remember initially you had forecasted BTC sub-100$ bottom in October 2015 but then you delayed the deadline to Spring 2016. What was the rationale behind this change?
Armstrong clarified that private assets such as gold won't bottom until then. It became more clear to me that Oct would correspond to start of a bond contagion and that the peak in bonds which would drive the liquidity draining effect out of private assets would likely peak sometime after that. Feels to me that BTC volatility has settled down for the moment in the eye of the true storm coming, and volatility will explode again and to the downside. We can see the contagion pressure building, e.g. tabnloz's posts about South America and Brazil. China's first round of effects are domino-ing through the global economy as we write this. |
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