Network just jumped up 100 petahashes!!!

[d57heinz]

so we have been at approx 400 peta for quite some time.. topping out at 420 at times.. Now we are at over 500 peta in a matter of a day.. This is either bitfury new chips or this is the effect of bitmain announcing selliing of new hw and the other manufacturers are going to keep up.. Here comes the big asic fight between the manufacturers.. Not sure if this is the best time to buy coins or just sit back and watch what unfolds. What does the community think of the 100 peta jump?

Price   238.80 USD/฿
Hashrate   504.20 PH/s
Activity   61 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   3,775
Fee Rate   0.00017907 BTC


Sources
https://chain.so/BTC
https://mining.bitcoinaffiliatenetwork.com/index.php?page=dashboard     if you have an account here still i only use this pool to watch global hashrate..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[jonnybravo0311]

I would certainly not trust the stats reported there... especially since no other site I've seen reports anything near the 100PH/s jump you're stating.  For example, bitcoinwisdom.com shows us still around 420PH/s.  Blockchain.info shows 460PH/s.

Remember, the network hash rate is estimated by looking at the time between blocks and current network difficulty.  Seeing spikes is certainly normal and expected variance.

[d57heinz]

I would certainly not trust the stats reported there... especially since no other site I've seen reports anything near the 100PH/s jump you're stating.  For example, bitcoinwisdom.com shows us still around 420PH/s.  Blockchain.info shows 460PH/s.

Remember, the network hash rate is estimated by looking at the time between blocks and current network difficulty.  Seeing spikes is certainly normal and expected variance.

Thanks i think i know what you mean by spikes..if they only turn it on for brief amounts of time which it looks like thats what they are doing.. i have seen this many times in the past.. the network will hit 500 peta sooner than you think.. Seems they like to milk it as not to scare off sales..  as for those other sites. they are slightly behind. ill give them a bit to catch up and see where they end up  .. Also by your theory if they are taking the time between blocks shouldnt we be slowing down big time.(global hashrate). since the network is throwing some well over 10 min blocks..

Thanks for the help.. Im still learning. 

Best Regards
d57heinz

[TheRealSteve]

What jonnybravo0311 meant is that spikes are normal as a result of variance - not as a result of people turning huge clusters of miners on/off.  These spikes are also going to get larger and larger in absolute terms the more the difficulty goes up, but relatively speaking stay about the same.

The only parties climbing disproportionately to the rest right now are KnC and Slush;

[d57heinz]

What jonnybravo0311 meant is that spikes are normal as a result of variance - not as a result of people turning huge clusters of miners on/off.  These spikes are also going to get larger and larger in absolute terms the more the difficulty goes up, but relatively speaking stay about the same.

The only parties climbing disproportionately to the rest right now are KnC and Slush;

Ahh ok i see.  Thanks for clearing that up.. So 25 % spike is normal.. I have seen my miners jump that high before but for the entire networks miners to jump all at once is something..  Ill keep an eye on it.. Would you mind sharing with me the source of your chart. I would really appreciate that.  Thanks again

Edit.. i mine on slush so i feel that the only reason they are disproportional is because they are recovering from a bad streak over the last couple days.. We was low on blocks for a bit there.. As for kncminer be nice to have some stats on them other than only being able to see there block history..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[d57heinz]

i just found this regarding knc


0. KNC Miner has hashrate increase
KNC miner solved 50% more blocks this week than last - about 50% increase over last week's blocks and outside the 95% confidence interval for blocks solved. The stacked histogram (cake chart) shows this gradual increase most clearly.

1. One unknown this week!
Has a solominer returned?

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weekly%20block%20maker%20statistics
I follow this guy but he only gives past weeks performance..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[TheRealSteve]

Edit.. i mine on slush so i feel that the only reason they are disproportional is because they are recovering from a bad streak over the last couple days..

There's quite a few days in that graph   I was referring to the disproportional nature compared to other pools.

If all pools in the graph stay at the same hash rate, then in that graph of mine they should all basically have horizontal lines; they can vary up and down a bit, but in the large averages (wider lines) this should smooth out pretty well.

If all pools go up by 25%, then that wouldn't change - they would still all be horizontal.

So when you see one (or in this case, two) graph line(s) go up quite a bit while all the other ones go slightly down, then whoever's behind those lines are adjusting their hash rate disproportionately compared to the others.  You can see this in the more extreme in a weekly graph:

You can see BitFury's sudden rise quite clearly, while BTCChina's is more of a slow but steady growth.  You can also see BTCGuild shutting down ~10 weeks ago by its sudden plummet to 0 blocks.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weekly%20block%20maker%20statistics
I follow this guy but he only gives past weeks performance..

And a statistic based on 7 days is probably a good thing.
There's several parties on Twitter that point to blockchain.info or blocktrail.com's graphs for the past 24 hours and saying "look! we're #1".. sure, for that day.. sometimes only just a few hours into a day.  That's just misleading for the overall picture.  So while having day-to-day stats or even block-to-block estimates is a fun exercise, it's not very indicative.

By the way: if you look at that first graph I posted - that's analogous to organofcorti's "Diachronic hashrate distribution".  The same side notes apply there: if all pools stay at the same relative hash rate, then the 'bands' in his graph would keep the same width throughout the time span.  Instead we can see that some of them have gotten wider (implying increased hash rate) while some have gotten more narrow (implying either same or decreased hash rate).

[d57heinz]

Im just trying to figure this out. because when i put in this on my client  it tells me the exact same number as chain.so .. So does the client itself also take the time between blocks?.. Can someone explain how the bitcoin client calculates the hash of the network?  Is it block by block or does it calculate back x amount of blocks took x amount of time then take the average?

root@d57heinz:~# bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps
461495597059767552


Price   239.08 USD/฿
Hashrate   461.50 PH/s
Activity   85 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   342
Fee Rate   

[TheRealSteve]

getnetworkhashps performs a calculation based on the difficulty and two parameters (number of blocks to average, block index from which to get an estimate).  If unspecified, it'll take the timestamp of the last block it knows about, the timestamp of the first block for the current difficulty, and uses the time difference and the current difficulty to get to an estimate of the network hash rate.

See also: help getnetworkhashps

Over time this number will stabilize more - you can already see that in your latest query you get ~460Ph/s, and not 'over 500Ph/s'

[d57heinz]

Edit.. i mine on slush so i feel that the only reason they are disproportional is because they are recovering from a bad streak over the last couple days..

There's quite a few days in that graph   I was referring to the disproportional nature compared to other pools.

If all pools in the graph stay at the same hash rate, then in that graph of mine they should all basically have horizontal lines; they can vary up and down a bit, but in the large averages (wider lines) this should smooth out pretty well.

If all pools go up by 25%, then that wouldn't change - they would still all be horizontal.

So when you see one (or in this case, two) graph line(s) go up quite a bit while all the other ones go slightly down, then whoever's behind those lines are adjusting their hash rate disproportionately compared to the others.  You can see this in the more extreme in a weekly graph:

You can see BitFury's sudden rise quite clearly, while BTCChina's is more of a slow but steady growth.  You can also see BTCGuild shutting down ~10 weeks ago by its sudden plummet to 0 blocks.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weekly%20block%20maker%20statistics
I follow this guy but he only gives past weeks performance..

And a statistic based on 7 days is probably a good thing.
There's several parties on Twitter that point to blockchain.info or blocktrail.com's graphs for the past 24 hours and saying "look! we're #1".. sure, for that day.. sometimes only just a few hours into a day.  That's just misleading for the overall picture.  So while having day-to-day stats or even block-to-block estimates is a fun exercise, it's not very indicative.

By the way: if you look at that first graph I posted - that's analogous to organofcorti's "Diachronic hashrate distribution".  The same side notes apply there: if all pools stay at the same relative hash rate, then the 'bands' in his graph would keep the same width throughout the time span.  Instead we can see that some of them have gotten wider (implying increased hash rate) while some have gotten more narrow (implying either same or decreased hash rate).

Thank you for taking the time to explain it.  I appreciate it..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[d57heinz]

getnetworkhashps performs a calculation based on the difficulty and two parameters (number of blocks to average, block index from which to get an estimate).  If unspecified, it'll take the timestamp of the last block it knows about, the timestamp of the first block for the current difficulty, and uses the time difference and the current difficulty to get to an estimate of the network hash rate.

See also: help getnetworkhashps

Over time this number will stabilize more - you can already see that in your latest query you get ~460Ph/s, and not 'over 500Ph/s'

yes is very clear now.. thank you:)

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


157 Sept 4 2015 ---- This was partial  but it is +13  on a norm of 144  that is over 9%    that is really high number we  need to see the next few days.
150 Sept 5 2015 ---- +6   for the day about +19 for the first 261 blocks
142 Sept 6 2015 ----  -2        +17
151 Sept 7 2015 ----  +7       +24
138 Sept 8 2015 ----   -6       +18  It did slow a bit.
144 Sept 9 2015 ----   0         +18

840 blocks made   norm = 822 real tim diff = (+2.18%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty    (+4.30%)


my 2.18% is real time  bitcoinwisdom  4.30% is future time prediction

the real time number above is about 10 hours old.



https://blockchain.info/blocks


373785 (Main Chain)   2015-09-10 00:03:00

373879 (Main Chain)   2015-09-10 14:09:00



in the last 14 hours  107 blocks were made   we should make 84 or 85    so this is a   + 22 or + 23 


+ 22 or + 23 means a 167 block day if our luck goes back to normal

if it stays  as high the next 10 hours  like it was for first  14 hours we will do 183 or 184 blocks.

So  go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts   tonight and see if  we stay high .  183 or 184

if we do this 3 days in a row get nervous.

[mavericklm]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

[TheRealSteve]

show me 500!!!

I'll show you 24463!!!

any graph or something concrete?

Based exclusively on blocks 373857 and 373858

variance...

*reads thread* You don't say

[d57heinz]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

Phillipma.. Thank you.. I knew you kept close tabs on the situation.. Thanks again for chiming in on this..

well she is back to 470 again.. i think ill keep an eye on this for a while.. something is def going on..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[d57heinz]

Did a little more research  and zeroblock confirms the steep rise aswell.. Im starting to wonder if the backlog of transactions impairs bitcoin core ability to accurately measure the hashrate.. OR we have a shitload hash coming on.. Im hoping its the first one 

Block Time 8.42 Min
Next Difficulty 6.3 Days
Hash Rate 484,165,991 GH/


https://zeroblock.com/

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

Phillipma.. Thank you.. I knew you kept close tabs on the situation.. Thanks again for chiming in on this..

well she is back to 470 again.. i think ill keep an eye on this for a while.. something is def going on..

Best Regards
d57heinz

3 days in a row and we will know for sure.

[notlist3d]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

Phillipma.. Thank you.. I knew you kept close tabs on the situation.. Thanks again for chiming in on this..

well she is back to 470 again.. i think ill keep an eye on this for a while.. something is def going on..

Best Regards
d57heinz

3 days in a row and we will know for sure.

I really don't want this 3 day's in  a row. Summer mining was so nice 2 percent almost every week.  No huge jumps.

Winter mining will get interesting if this continues.  We might see some big jumps.

[d57heinz]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

Phillipma.. Thank you.. I knew you kept close tabs on the situation.. Thanks again for chiming in on this..

well she is back to 470 again.. i think ill keep an eye on this for a while.. something is def going on..

Best Regards
d57heinz

3 days in a row and we will know for sure.

I really don't want this 3 day's in  a row. Summer mining was so nice 2 percent almost every week.  No huge jumps.

Winter mining will get interesting if this continues.  We might see some big jumps.

That is also on my mind aswell.. I ran s1 last year one in each room to heat my house and two other households.. Now Im sure that this year it will have caught on even more.. I will run s3's for heat.. So im doubtful for those living in colder climates if they will even shut off being as it will offset heating costs.. I live in central illinois so heating season is very close.. I think we see some big gains then a possible falling off big time near spring 2016..  Then you have the halving to consider.. Its getting very complicated thats for sure:)..  Thanks for all your insight guys..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[d57heinz]

show me 500!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

any graph or something concrete?

variance...

Looks like blockchain is finally catching up
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Best Regards
d57heinz