Info about BFL Power Draw

[HDSolar]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Pretty much. The way I originally calculated it out, the 10x comes from not only the preorders posted by BFL, but also from other ASIC ventures, and all over the course of 12 months or so. I think I'll rework my numbers at the end of October/November, assuming more data is put out to the public (such as raw numbers on preorders/sales from BFL and other ASIC companies).

That is great and please share, this is not easy and allot of SWAG going on but I think that the majority opinion on this type of discussion give a stronger picture going forward.

[bitboyben]

Thanks for that Juicy tid bit Inaba!

[hahahafr]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.

My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:

Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99

The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.

[SgtSpike]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

I do (at this point) trust Inaba, but he does have incentive to lie here.  The lower the projected difficulty increase, the more pre-order sales BFL can continue to acquire.

That said, I've always felt that most people's estimates based on order numbers were quite high.  I bet there are people who go on BFL's site every day and just punch a few unpaid orders in, just to increase the order numbers that much more and try to scare people into not ordering more.  I'd guess that 75% of the order numbers are unpaid.

Time will tell...  Right now, one single is projected to make around $150/day.  At a 10x difficulty increase, that's still $15/day, or $450/month.  That's still a lot of money... I'll be happy with it, for sure.

[MrTeal]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.

My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:

Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99

The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.

1) The best MH/s/$ is not the Single, GPUs still hold that distinction as you can build a full 5x7970 rig for under $2400 (and less if you shop around) that will do 3.5GH/s. It will use 4x more power than the BFL Singles, though. Added benefit is that Newegg will get that to you in a couple days instead of a couple months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.

[hahahafr]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.

My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:

Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99

The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.

1) The best MH/s/$ is not the Single, GPUs still hold that distinction as you can build a full 5x7970 rig for under $2400 (and less if you shop around) that will do 3.5GH/s. It will use 4x more power than the BFL Singles, though. Added benefit is that Newegg will get that to you in a couple days instead of a couple months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.

Haha. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/117-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications

Yup 34x.

[MrTeal]

I did some rough calculations based on our sales figures and at least for the case of BFL, we will not cause a 10x increase.  I can't speak for the other manufacturers numbers, of course.

Keep in mind that Inaba is employee of BFL, and that BFL has made huge investments in their chip, so they won't tell you that your expected profit will in fact be a little less.

My calculations are as follow, and I take them as a worst figure:

Currently if someone wanna start mining, the best MH/s/$ he can get is with a single (end product of the FPGA generation) at 1.38 MH/s/$. A little less if we take other FPGA products, a little more if we take into account the minirig.
With the ASIC generation, as a first product of this generation, we have the single SC which gives 30.79 MH/s/$. A little less if take the Japaleno, and a little more if we take the minirig SC. But if look over at competition, this time BFL has not the best MH/s/$: the Avalon for example, at least for the first 300 units, offers 46.19 MH/s/$. This is worrying because it's for a first generation product.
I expect that in 2013 the second generation of ASIC will increase well over 40 MH/s/$.
Simple math then:
40/1.38=28.99

The difficulty will effectively increase by 30x in the next six months.

1) The best MH/s/$ is not the Single, GPUs still hold that distinction as you can build a full 5x7970 rig for under $2400 (and less if you shop around) that will do 3.5GH/s. It will use 4x more power than the BFL Singles, though. Added benefit is that Newegg will get that to you in a couple days instead of a couple months.
2) Your metric makes no sense. The only way they would be somewhat accurate is if everyone on the network liquidated their hardware, got a great price for it, and reinvested that in ASIC products in the next six months. That's not likely to happen.

Haha. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/117-Announcement-BFL-ASIC-Release-specifications

Yup 34x.

Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2013 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.

[hahahafr]

I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?
500 TH/s I win. Less than 500 TH/s you win.
2013-02-01 UTC.

[hahahafr]

Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2012 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.

I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?

You better look at that year again, he's already won!

2013-02-01 UTC.

[MrTeal]

Would you like to place an escrowed wager on this? I will bet you 100BTC at 1:1 odds that the network hashrate will be less than 500TH/s before February 1st, 2012 (UTC). That's an increase of almost exactly 22.3x the current hashrate; if you were confident it would raise 30x before this announcement that should be easy money for you now that ASICs are all announcing a 50-100% increase in GH/$.

I'll bet you 1 BTC. Someone reputable wants to witness/take note of this?

You better look at that year again, he's already won!

2013-02-01 UTC.

I edited, 2013 of course. 1BTC isn't worth remembering that far from now, 10BTC to make it interesting?

[hahahafr]

I will remember it. 1 BTC is good enough. I'm not that rich lol.

[MrTeal]

I will remember it. 1 BTC is good enough. I'm not that rich lol.

Alright, no deal. It's not worth setting up an escrow for a 1BTC bet.

[hahahafr]

We could just do it like that. On Feb 1, 2013 UTC whoever wins messages the other. 1 BTC is fine, really.

[MrTeal]

We could just do it like that. On Feb 1, 2013 UTC whoever wins messages the other. 1 BTC is fine, really.

Umm, no. There's no chance I'm taking an unescrowed bet with someone who created a possibly sockpuppet account two weeks ago.

[hahahafr]

Ok I thought that could be fun. No deal then.

[GernMiester]

Umm, no. There's no chance I'm taking an unescrowed bet with someone who created a possibly sockpuppet account two weeks ago.
[/quote]


tool

[MrTeal]

tool

Hoe?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0