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Author Topic: So who drops out at the halving?  (Read 2503 times)
Nagle
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September 18, 2015, 08:00:21 PM
 #1

Any miner who isn't making a big return now starts to lose money at the next halving. Who's dropping out at that point?

Are the big players buying new hardware, or just getting the last revenue out of the old stuff?
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September 18, 2015, 09:11:20 PM
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I think bitcoin will see a large increase in value after the halving, the mining industry creates inflation and a flooding of btc on the open market.  After the halving there will be significantly less btc entering the marketplace.
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September 18, 2015, 10:09:33 PM
 #3

I think bitcoin will see a large increase in value after the halving, the mining industry creates inflation and a flooding of btc on the open market.  After the halving there will be significantly less btc entering the marketplace.

The drop will be from 3600 BTC/day to 1800 BTC/day (on average). I remain baflled though on what drives the price of Bitcoin. Yes, I know about "Supply and Demand", but I have yet to see a coherent explanation of how either supply or demand are measured. I do know that if by some miracle BTC price went to $1000, the supply would increase dramatically, not from new miners, but rather current holders of coins. By the same token, I have no idea what drives the demand for BTC. For me personally, I have zero actual desire for BTC as a currency.
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September 18, 2015, 10:32:58 PM
 #4

I think that after BTC  halving we can see the dramatic BTC price drops .

It is very possible, that after halving Antminer S5 does not make a profit with Hashnest  electricity price $0.001175/GHS/Day.


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September 18, 2015, 10:35:28 PM
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can someone inform me on when exactly the halving is taking place?
Tupsu
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September 18, 2015, 10:38:04 PM
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can someone inform me on when exactly the halving is taking place?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

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September 18, 2015, 10:47:05 PM
 #7

can someone inform me on when exactly the halving is taking place?

http://bitcoinclock.com/
Thats a good tool Cheesy, but i thought it was around in the next 3months like december ish. the clock says july 2016 is that correct?
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September 18, 2015, 10:54:30 PM
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I think bitcoin will see a large increase in value after the halving, the mining industry creates inflation and a flooding of btc on the open market.  After the halving there will be significantly less btc entering the marketplace.

The drop will be from 3600 BTC/day to 1800 BTC/day (on average). I remain baflled though on what drives the price of Bitcoin. Yes, I know about "Supply and Demand", but I have yet to see a coherent explanation of how either supply or demand are measured. I do know that if by some miracle BTC price went to $1000, the supply would increase dramatically, not from new miners, but rather current holders of coins. By the same token, I have no idea what drives the demand for BTC. For me personally, I have zero actual desire for BTC as a currency.

You might get some idea about the market sentiment regarding block halving at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171180.0
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September 18, 2015, 11:23:16 PM
 #9

I think bitcoin will see a large increase in value after the halving, the mining industry creates inflation and a flooding of btc on the open market.  After the halving there will be significantly less btc entering the marketplace.

The drop will be from 3600 BTC/day to 1800 BTC/day (on average). I remain baflled though on what drives the price of Bitcoin. Yes, I know about "Supply and Demand", but I have yet to see a coherent explanation of how either supply or demand are measured. I do know that if by some miracle BTC price went to $1000, the supply would increase dramatically, not from new miners, but rather current holders of coins. By the same token, I have no idea what drives the demand for BTC. For me personally, I have zero actual desire for BTC as a currency.

Meh people thought the price of LTC would skyrocket or double at the halving, and what happened? Not much, the price is still mostly sticked to the BTC.

So when the BTC halving happen, i'm pretty sure anything under the S7 undervolted will get dropped for the average American seller. For me Anything under S5 or S3 undervolted will drop out.

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September 19, 2015, 12:44:50 AM
 #10

Thats a good tool Cheesy, but i thought it was around in the next 3months like december ish. the clock says july 2016 is that correct?
Roughly.  As that site shows, the halving occurs exactly every 210,000 blocks.  Blocks can be found slower/faster than intended depending on whether the network hash rate decreases or increases.  Right now it's increasing, so while the site estimates July 26th, it'll probably shift over to earlier in July as things progress.

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September 19, 2015, 01:25:01 AM
 #11

Any miner who isn't making a big return now starts to lose money at the next halving. Who's dropping out at that point?

Are the big players buying new hardware, or just getting the last revenue out of the old stuff?

I will always have at least a miner going for the love of it.   How big I am able to go though no one will know till we are closer.   

At current price a lot of gear is going to be hard to run without really cheap electricity.   But I have hope that something will happen to make it work for hobby miners.
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September 19, 2015, 04:13:27 AM
 #12

Does anyone expect big bitcoin mining operations to slowly dissipate if price stays the same for a while after the halving?

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September 19, 2015, 07:21:11 AM
 #13

with simple math you can verify that any miners around 0.05 or less can take profit even at $70 per btc, so with the next halving they are still there with a small gain

for example 1 farm with 1k antminer s5 can earn around 10 btc day($2300), while consuming only 590 kw/h x 0.05 x 24 = $708, with the halving there is still around 400+ in profit every day

and all this without counting that the new s7 has a double efficiency...
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September 19, 2015, 08:24:24 AM
 #14

Way too many variables to tell at THIS point.
The biggest one is "how much will diff increase by then", followed closely by "what will bitcoin price be by then".

 Trying to figure profitability after the halfing based on where those numbers are NOW is stupid.

Quote

Meh people thought the price of LTC would skyrocket or double at the halving


LTC is a much smaller market, so it was easier for it to move a lot - and as it happens it DID more than double before the halfing, then dropped back down a little. It's STILL quite a bit higher than what it was 3 months before the halfing.

 I expect bitcoin will see a bump too, but not nearly as much of one.
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September 19, 2015, 12:07:17 PM
 #15

Does anyone expect big bitcoin mining operations to slowly dissipate if price stays the same for a while after the halving?

Some miners will get out of business, that's for sure. Those will be the ones that are now mining on very narrow margins. I don't expect that there will be amazingly a lot of people that will drop out after halving if the prices stay the same.

Difficulty is very high at the moment. Last 10 days it kept raising. Actually we even have to much of the hashrate at the moment, we don't need this much for our network to stay well protected. This just shows you that mining is still very profitable for majority of the miners, otherwise, hashrate wouldn't be going up like this.
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September 19, 2015, 06:52:53 PM
 #16

I come out of the mining game long ago. The only time I mine now days if cloud mining and also mining alt coins that come out. getting to point not worth it for bitcoin mining due to the cost of energy used. If energy prices where good in UK and equipment was cheaper it would be a lot better. Been burned in a few cloud mining places.  At the halving I can see a lot of people trying to push that last little bit of profit before switching off units or taking them to other cryptos that are starting out.
Nagle
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September 20, 2015, 05:51:48 AM
 #17

I think that after BTC  halving we can see the dramatic BTC price drops .
It's really hard to say. The classic economic assumption is that known future events are already priced in by the market. That would mean the halving has no effect on price.

But it will strongly affect mining activity.
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September 20, 2015, 06:51:50 AM
 #18

I think that after BTC  halving we can see the dramatic BTC price drops .
It's really hard to say. The classic economic assumption is that known future events are already priced in by the market. That would mean the halving has no effect on price.

But it will strongly affect mining activity.

Please extend statement Tupsu.
In my opinion, neither technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart or future mining does not justify the sharp drop in the BTC price as you suggest.
In my opinion mining after halving will bring income. Everyone has to simulate it for his own use, taking into consideration: the difficulty, the BTC price and the price of electricity.
Tupsu
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September 20, 2015, 12:32:55 PM
 #19

Demand and supply are not always balanced.

A small example for Hashnest S5 market.

Shop  Price: 367.0 USD(1.58579611฿)  Stock: 627

Market Price :   1xS5=1 BTC

After the big panic selling  S5 price with every day only  go down. 
The reason is not only panic.
S5 is still very profitable  in Hashnest. Depending on the day Maintenance from total payout  is 52-55%

But the S5 price only drops.  Because supply is greater than demand. The same can also happen very easily with BTC.

usenet
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September 20, 2015, 01:44:00 PM
 #20

Generally Tupsu you're right. But you made a mistake by confusing a BTC/USD couple with what is happening in the mining equipment market.
The collapse of the BTC/USD course took place in 2013-2014 and the current situation is quite different from that. We are located just at a different time.
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