Bitcoin halving to be canceled?

[deisik]

We are not there yet (though getting closer to the Bitcoin halving event horizon, lol), and it still remains to be seen how the odds will play out in the end, what events will unfold and what fold in, wtf...

[tom555]

Nope, 259 days to 12.5 Bitcoin block

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

[deisik]

Nope, 259 days to 12.5 Bitcoin block

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

Still a long way to go. Expect higher volatility and wider price swings as we are nearing the day of reckoning

[Nemo1024]

What?

Who has the most power over Bitcoin? Right, these are mining pools. Who is most interested in preserving the current block reward? The same mining pools...

Who gives a fuck what the pools do, it's what the miners do.

Mining pools act on behalf of the miners. Besides, do you understand that the miners will be the first to welcome the cancellation of halving?

No.

I've been mining since late CPU/early GPU days and still going strong. Been through the 50BTC->25BTC halving, when some of the same concerns were aired.

Once must understand that halving is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, aimed at approximating the natural increase in scarcity, observed in other money systems, like gold (as opposed to currencies, like dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum). Besides, Bitcoin is not about miners, it's about the ecosystem. You need bitcoins, go and ask for your salary being paid in them, or buy them.

BTC50 or BTC25 or BTC12.5 or BTC6.25 or BTC3.125 or BTC1.5625 or BTC0.78125 or BTC0.390625 ...

It ultimately does not matter as the market will correct for that (unless external forces manipulate the price, like they do with gold or oil prices).

Cancellation of halving (and acceptance of that by the majority vote of the miners) is exactly what may stop me from mining and walking away from Bitcoin, as that would signal that Bitcoin failed.

[deisik]

Once must understand that halving is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, aimed at approximating the natural increase in scarcity, observed in other money systems, like gold (as opposed to currencies, like dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum)

The problem is that Bitcoin itself is not natural. As I have said elsewhere (and been attacked by assclowns of all stripes and denominations, lol), Bitcoin, in this aspect, is no different than any other fiat money out there (or currency, if you please), my point being that mimicking scarcity (or any other quality) of its counterparts such as gold doesn't endow it with the resilience and robustness due to their inherent value (entrenched deep in the minds and nature of people)...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

[NorrisK]

Halving should not be canceled because miners become unhappy with the rewards...

That is just plain stupid, like everything is about them. It only drives miners to become more efficient, as that will be the only way to keep up.

[deisik]

What?

Who has the most power over Bitcoin? Right, these are mining pools. Who is most interested in preserving the current block reward? The same mining pools...

Who gives a fuck what the pools do, it's what the miners do.

Mining pools act on behalf of the miners. Besides, do you understand that the miners will be the first to welcome the cancellation of halving?

No.

I've been mining since late CPU/early GPU days and still going strong. Been through the 50BTC->25BTC halving, when some of the same concerns were aired

If no, why not then give me half of your earnings?

BTC50 or BTC25 or BTC12.5 or BTC6.25 or BTC3.125 or BTC1.5625 or BTC0.78125 or BTC0.390625 ...

Okay, we are well past the 50 BTC reward, but may I hope that you will make do equally well with the remaining numbers right now?

[SebastianJu]

What?

Who has the most power over Bitcoin? Right, these are mining pools. Who is most interested in preserving the current block reward? The same mining pools...

Who gives a fuck what the pools do, it's what the miners do.

Mining pools act on behalf of the miners. Besides, do you understand that the miners will be the first to welcome the cancellation of halving?

No.

I've been mining since late CPU/early GPU days and still going strong. Been through the 50BTC->25BTC halving, when some of the same concerns were aired

If no, why not then give me half of your earnings?

BTC50 or BTC25 or BTC12.5 or BTC6.25 or BTC3.125 or BTC1.5625 or BTC0.78125 or BTC0.390625 ...

Okay, we are well past the 50 BTC reward, but may I hope that you will make do equally well with the remaining numbers right now?

The problem will solve itself. The reward over time is only as low as many miners take part in the mining game. Lower the reward and many miners will switch off their unprofitable miners. Which means the remaining rewards will be split through the remaining miners, which means they will earn more.

Given that we have 100 times more miners than we would need then you can assume that if 99% of all miners were switched off then the remaining 1% would earn 100 times the earning they had before. Market will find it's way. And mining will always be profitable for those who can get their hands on cheap hardware.

[jaysabi]

Once must understand that halving is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, aimed at approximating the natural increase in scarcity, observed in other money systems, like gold (as opposed to currencies, like dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum)

The problem is that Bitcoin itself is not natural. As I have said elsewhere (and been attacked by assclowns of all stripes and denominations, lol), Bitcoin, in this aspect, is no different than any other fiat money out there (or currency, if you please), my point being that mimicking scarcity (or any other quality) of its counterparts such as gold doesn't endow it with the resilience and robustness due to their inherent value (entrenched deep in the minds and nature of people)...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Scarcity is part of what gives both gold and bitcoin value. The only reason anything has any value at all is that everyone believes it to be true. This is true of bitcoin, gold, and fiat. Confidence in the particular monetary system is what bestows value, and part of the confidence in bitcoin is the built in scarcity of a hard cap and halving block rewards along the way. If that confidence is undermined, then the value/utility of the monetary system is going to fall, and that's true of gold and fiat too.

[Tmdz]

There is no possible way they will allow politics to influence the supply of bitcoin, this is not fiat.  Bitcoin has a few set rules that we know we can relay on, halving is one of them and trust no one.  Look the reason people are thinking about this is because the drop in price and to that I say don't worry about it, things will sort themselves out.

[deisik]

The problem will solve itself. The reward over time is only as low as many miners take part in the mining game. Lower the reward and many miners will switch off their unprofitable miners. Which means the remaining rewards will be split through the remaining miners, which means they will earn more.

I don't particularly disagree with the said. In fact, I already mentioned something to that tune somewhere in the thread earlier. There are two major issues with this, though. First, this problem is apparently the flaw in design (an arbitrarily set number), at least, the way it is set up to work (if anyone begs to differ, think about how non-optimal (or, better, disruptive) the halving is/will be). Second, the disrupture in Bitcoin operation may be fatal to it, meaning it may never fully recover from this halving...

[deisik]

Once must understand that halving is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, aimed at approximating the natural increase in scarcity, observed in other money systems, like gold (as opposed to currencies, like dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum)

The problem is that Bitcoin itself is not natural. As I have said elsewhere (and been attacked by assclowns of all stripes and denominations, lol), Bitcoin, in this aspect, is no different than any other fiat money out there (or currency, if you please), my point being that mimicking scarcity (or any other quality) of its counterparts such as gold doesn't endow it with the resilience and robustness due to their inherent value (entrenched deep in the minds and nature of people)...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Scarcity is part of what gives both gold and bitcoin value. The only reason anything has any value at all is that everyone believes it to be true. This is true of bitcoin, gold, and fiat. Confidence in the particular monetary system is what bestows value, and part of the confidence in bitcoin is the built in scarcity of a hard cap and halving block rewards along the way. If that confidence is undermined, then the value/utility of the monetary system is going to fall, and that's true of gold and fiat too.

Value of gold is set by the laws of nature, which humans cannot change at their whimsy (at least, so far). It doesn't matter where it lives or originates, since humans cannot change their own nature either (just in case you're going to bring forward the argument of subjective value and all that crap). Bitcoin, on the hand, is, like fiat monies, a deliberate brain-child of men, and, as such, it is not "bestowed" with the same level of confidence (that nature provides)...

This "confidence" is undermined by definition

[Barnabe]

Once must understand that halving is an essential part of the Bitcoin protocol, aimed at approximating the natural increase in scarcity, observed in other money systems, like gold (as opposed to currencies, like dollar, which can be printed ad infinitum)

The problem is that Bitcoin itself is not natural. As I have said elsewhere (and been attacked by assclowns of all stripes and denominations, lol), Bitcoin, in this aspect, is no different than any other fiat money out there (or currency, if you please), my point being that mimicking scarcity (or any other quality) of its counterparts such as gold doesn't endow it with the resilience and robustness due to their inherent value (entrenched deep in the minds and nature of people)...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Scarcity is part of what gives both gold and bitcoin value. The only reason anything has any value at all is that everyone believes it to be true. This is true of bitcoin, gold, and fiat. Confidence in the particular monetary system is what bestows value, and part of the confidence in bitcoin is the built in scarcity of a hard cap and halving block rewards along the way. If that confidence is undermined, then the value/utility of the monetary system is going to fall, and that's true of gold and fiat too.

Value of gold is set by the laws of nature, which humans cannot change at their whimsy (at least, so far). It doesn't matter where it lives or originates, since humans cannot change their own nature either (just in case you're going to bring forward the argument of subjective value and all that crap). Bitcoin, on the hand, is, like fiat monies, the deliberate brain-child of men, and, as such, it is not "bestowed" with the same level of confidence (that nature provides)...

This "confidence" is undermined by definition

You can summarize this by a simple question.
Would you switch to a "miners-fork" where halfing is not done ?
I know I wouldn't.

Every miner would want to in the short term, but the coins mined in their fork would have no value, because nobody would want to buy them.
Who would want to buy something that is not rare and can be produced Ad vitam æternam ? Plus it would lose a lot of it's value overtime because of the inflation (more coins are produced and always will).

What will happen after the halving is that the supply of bitcoin will be lower (less coins injected into the system) and the price will adjust (each bitcoin will be more expensive because they are more difficult to find).
At the end (long term), the miner's situation will remain the same. He will mine less, but the coins will be more expensive so the end result is the same for them.

[deisik]

You can summarize this by a simple question.
Would you switch to a "miners-fork" where halfing is not done ?
I know I wouldn't.

I have no bitcoins at the moment (well, I seem to have been paid by bit-x today, but this is dust). I sold whatever I had at 460. If that was at the top (I didn't follow the price closely), then I was just lucky, and I'm done with Bitcoin, wtf...

So, personally, I don't care

[deisik]

What will happen after the halving is that the supply of bitcoin will be lower (less coins injected into the system) and the price will adjust (each bitcoin will be more expensive because they are more difficult to find).
At the end (long term), the miner's situation will remain the same. He will mine less, but the coins will be more expensive so the end result is the same for them.

Quoting myself on the topic (the relevant parts), lol

Miners will produce only half the amount of bitcoins after the halving, but this doesn't in the least mean that the total supply of coins will diminish accordingly since they don't sell all their coins even now (when reward is high), and they are not the only ones who sell bitcoins. Given that a) they can't increase production (i.e. the number of new blocks found per unit of time, which could potentially offset the drop in reward), and b) they may actually begin suffering losses due to lower reward per block (I don't expect their profit margins to be high due to tight competition), I see it as mostly inevitable that they will have to sell more coins than they sold before the halving (i.e. now sell), in order to cover their expenses (which remain the same per block)

Once the Bitcoin halving occurs, miners will get half as much what they earned before the halving. If their profit margins are not high enough to cover their operating expenses with twice as less (yeah) revenue, they will bear losses and will have to cease mining. But if, nevertheless, their profit margins are high (and they already got back their capital expenditures), then they don't need to sell all their coins in the first place

Unless they (miners) raise the limit and do something with the halving, Bitcoin adoption rate is doomed to stagnate. This doesn't necessarily mean that the price will collapse, but it will if just a few of the top Bitcoin holders decide to part with their stash

In short, things don't work the way you think they should

[anthonycamp]

Can not cancel something that is build into the design.

i agree with the engenniren of it the halfing can ocur and will ocur if the price goes up its their problem

[dinofelis]

I think the possibility of miners changing the protocol not to see the halving would imply that the very next day, the bitcoin price would be about $0,-.

The whole concept of bitcoin is that it is based on a non-inflationary belief ; on the idea that there is no arbitrary central bank that can switch on the bill press at will.  The day that you see that miners can decide to change this, you can expect that a year later, they decide to double or triple their rewards.  After all, what would stop them if the first change in protocol passed ?
That would mean that the bitcoin production is unlimited and can at any moment be changed at random, if enough miners want so.

It is as if you discovered that there's a chemical way of turning sand into gold.  Who is going to buy gold now at high prices ?

So, yes, miners could, if they were totally corrupt or stupid, decide to get away from the halving protocol, and kill bitcoin that way, because then they have shown that miners can get together in a 51% cartel, and decide what they want about how many bitcoins will exist, and who will get them.  They can then overnight decide also to reward themselves one billion bitcoins each.  Why wouldn't they ?

[deisik]

So, yes, miners could, if they were totally corrupt or stupid, decide to get away from the halving protocol, and kill bitcoin that way, because then they have shown that miners can get together in a 51% cartel, and decide what they want about how many bitcoins will exist, and who will get them.  They can then overnight decide also to reward themselves one billion bitcoins each.  Why wouldn't they?

Do you really think that the Bitcoin people (i.e. that relatively small group of people who presently control the Bitcoin mining) are somehow particularly different from those who created the piles of shitcoins?

To think bad of people is a sin but rarely a mistake, lol

[Sir_lagsalot]

Well, yes mining pools have the most power. But do they have ultimate control? No. Even satoshi doesn't have that. to stop/delay the halving, we'd have to all agree to a change in the coin's source code. Which is also making a totally different coin. Something like Bitcoin XT, which isn't really working out that well. One other reason why bitcoin is so successful is it's specific amount of coins and it's unique supply. If we change this, the price of bitcoin will plummet.

So no, I dont think the halving will be cancelled.

[Nemo1024]

If no, why not then give me half of your earnings?

Because you are making a logical mistake here. Why should I? You are transferring to a personal level a global market. When halving occurs, everything else, the rest of the Bitcoin economy, is indexed to that pretty quickly.

I won't be giving you half of my future BTC0.390625 per block earnings just the same as I won't be giving you half of my past BTC50 earnings.

[/quote]

BTC50 or BTC25 or BTC12.5 or BTC6.25 or BTC3.125 or BTC1.5625 or BTC0.78125 or BTC0.390625 ...

Okay, we are well past the 50 BTC reward, but may I hope that you will make do equally well with the remaining numbers right now?
[/quote]

I do. Thank you for your concern.