ASIC Miners have screwed me over.

[nobbynobbynoob]

I don't know about the exchange rate falling, but that would just open up opportunities to buy up even more BTC.

[SgtSpike]

Conservatively? 12 months.

Same all models, since they have -about- the same $-per-Ghash rate, approximately.

Delivery ETA is mid-to-end of November for Round 1, and guessing Mid-to-end of December for Round 2.

Conservative indeed: I think early ASIC adopters have a good chance at a much shorter RoI than that. If you're more interested in holding than selling mined coin (which I am), then this period is of less significance, of course.

Thing is, who knows what a BTC will be worth in fiat terms six, twelve or howevermany months down the line? That might be even tougher to estimate than the difficulty level.

Assuming ASICs are real, yeah, ROI will be pretty short for those receiving batch #1. Mining coins at insane speeds before a change in difficulty occurs, mad profitable. Estimating value vs fiat is tricky. Most people want to be optimistic and make the assumption that with steep rise in difficulty, and the block reward being halved, BTC value will also go up. Realistically, all I can see happening is market flooding with freshly minted coin as ASICs will be pooping them out as if they had Taco Bell the evening prior. I'm not sure how the block reward being halved will affect the market. For miners there will be a drastic activity change in how one determines to shut off hardware or not. Sadly the major players in the market aren't miners, they're just buyers/sellers/traders and for all intensive purposes may not even be aware of the upcoming change to the block reward. If I had to guess, I'd say with regret, that BTC value will likely go down instead of up as a result of ASICs hitting the market.

It's not going to be a huge increase in the normally minted number of coins.  I'd say 5000 BTC will be mined faster than normal because of ASIC release and lag before increases in difficulty, but that's not a huge amount, and certainly not large enough to devalue BTC overall (especially considering the vast majority of miners simply hold their coins).

[hardcore-fs]

The real issue is going to be with 'solo' mining.
There will be a far higher probability of the ASICS hitting the final key for a block of 50/25 bit coins, purely because of the extra speed, no matter what the difficulty.

With the addition of a bit of criminal coding, it would be possible to target blocks that were close to completion.


HC

[SgtSpike]

The real issue is going to be with 'solo' mining.
There will be a far higher probability of the ASICS hitting the final key for a block of 50/25 bit coins, purely because of the extra speed, no matter what the difficulty.

With the addition of a bit of criminal coding, it would be possible to target blocks that were close to completion.


HC

No block is ever "close to completion".  You need to read up on how mining works a bit more.

[hardcore-fs]

Possibly mis-read it,

I thought that a 'block' was submitted to the network and then the miners compete to solve the blocks final key.
Since the 'difficulty' is designed to prolong the solving of a block, it makes sense that there is a higher probability for blocks that have been processed for longer are closer to being solved (yep I do understand a client can stumble on the solution at any time, just as i can buy a winning mark 6 ticket the first time)

But the longer the block is processed the less is the probability for getting a 'wrong'(non-final solution) is less?


HC

[SgtSpike]

Possibly mis-read it,

I thought that a 'block' was submitted to the network and then the miners compete to solve the blocks final key.
Since the 'difficulty' is designed to prolong the solving of a block, it makes sense that there is a higher probability for blocks that have been processed for longer are closer to being solved (yep I do understand a client can stumble on the solution at any time, just as i can buy a winning mark 6 ticket the first time)

But the longer the block is processed the less is the probability for getting a 'wrong'(non-final solution) is less?


HC

No, it doesn't matter how long a block has been in process, it has the exact same change at getting mined in the next second as it did 10 minutes ago.

It's like trying to roll a die and hit 1.  No matter how many times you roll, you have the exact same chance at hitting 1 the next roll as you did for all the prior rolls.

[hardcore-fs]

I have difficulty believing that, since the Hash is a finite length and the solution is a finite length.
Then there are only a given number of additions that can be made to the base, before either a solution is found OR the block cannot be solved....

0000000134712207fb6b0a73e3f600cdaf7438c9a704b6311332cfb30000029300000000550e0d5 641a329d50ccfc3d0d409a6580fd2a326c6f6a07009d864f3a98c14b35089ff931a0575ef
0000000134712207fb6b0a73e3f600cdaf7438c9a704b6311332cfb30000029300000000550e0d5 641a329d50ccfc3d0d409a6580fd2a326c6f6a07009d864f3a98c14b35089ff931a0575ef:11bf5712
BTCGuild  accepted share 11bf5712 (difficulty 3.81158)


Since the "goal" is to get the top bytes of the hash equal to  00000000
The issue is that you do not know how many "corrections" have to be added before you get a solution.

as in:
hit <= '1' when outerhash(255 downto 224) = x"00000000"  else '0';

gives us a "correction" of  11bf5712, the minimum possible correction is '00000000' the max 'FFFFFFFF'

If the  "correction' had the possibility to be infinite, then your comparison to throwing a die, may be accurate, unless I'm missing something like the initial hash is unique for each  work search per user.

I.E the  goal is actually:
BASE_Hash + MYPERSONALKEY+correction

HC

[SgtSpike]

I have difficulty believing that, since the Hash is a finite length and the solution is a finite length.
Then there are only a given number of additions that can be made to the base, before either a solution is found OR the block cannot be solved....

0000000134712207fb6b0a73e3f600cdaf7438c9a704b6311332cfb30000029300000000550e0d5 641a329d50ccfc3d0d409a6580fd2a326c6f6a07009d864f3a98c14b35089ff931a0575ef
0000000134712207fb6b0a73e3f600cdaf7438c9a704b6311332cfb30000029300000000550e0d5 641a329d50ccfc3d0d409a6580fd2a326c6f6a07009d864f3a98c14b35089ff931a0575ef:11bf5712
BTCGuild  accepted share 11bf5712 (difficulty 3.81158)


Since the "goal" is to get the top bytes of the hash equal to  00000000
The issue is that you do not know how many "corrections" have to be added before you get a solution.

as in:
hit <= '1' when outerhash(255 downto 224) = x"00000000"  else '0';

gives us a "correction" of  11bf5712, the minimum possible correction is '00000000' the max 'FFFFFFFF'

If the  "correction' had the possibility to be infinite, then your comparison to throwing a die, may be accurate, unless I'm missing something like the initial hash is unique for each  work search per user.

I.E the  goal is actually:
BASE_Hash + MYPERSONALKEY+correction

HC

You're missing that there may not be a "correction" that gives the hash you're looking for.  Each hash is completely random, and though there is a nonce included as part of the calculation, the entire range of nonces is calculated in a matter of seconds by the average hasher.  BFL's new SC Single, for example, will run through a typical nonce range in 70ms.

Technically, the entire network could hash for millions of years and never come across the right hash.  It would be extraordinarily unlikely, but there is no limited range to search, as you suggest.

[halfway2hell]

I have just bought a new Graphics card for bitcoin mining and realized that ASIC's were going to be released in a short while.
Graphics card overheats from over clocking and knowing the cable for the cooling fan out while installing sound card leaving me with a nvida geforce 840gs.  
I want to get into the Bitcoin mining business. Any ideas?

They say the ship has sailed for gpu miners which is true but you got a decent pc. there's still hope for you yet.
1. learn how to use the TOR network and find some tor sites they tend to lead to more tor sites.
2. you could grind a couple btc and ltc with what you got do it before its too late. buy some btc too not many just some.
3. find a tor site that sells credit card account from hacked databases.
4. Through tor and learning how to be 120% anonymous purchase more btc with then cc it can be done easy if you read alot. then launder the btc.
5. once you got enough btc setup a btc trading exchange
6 be legit for a month or so
7.Then RIPOFF the greedy fuckers from this forum. Just ask pirate he knows and is still laughing at these fools.
8. Profit !!!!!
9 the point is there is always another route And there are some real greedy people if you even want to refer to them as people.....and you will hook-em good. Just think about it there are people who devoted their home and life to gpu farming. Due to the fact they are lazy as fuck and greedy as fuck. just look at the asics situation.... People with their life savings spent on something that's not even been built yet. With hope of staying ahead of the pack just so they can greed mine the shit out of btc. its pathetic. No wonder so many people have been ripped off before. Bitcoin is the HACKERS Currency not theirs. You don't even have to got down that route to get btc either. All you need is a good exploit pack and pickpocket bot hell get a mining bot while you are at it. Let these idiots do all the work for you.
Just a thought from reading and lurking here. Oh yes just as people pool resources to mine btc there are hackers pooling theirs to crack passwords as well. Encrypted wallets can be cracked....But why waste time brute-forcing when you can use a key-logger? ;)That is all.


Happy Hunting.

[josephliton]

It has seen constant and steady growth for almost 2 years now,The probability of the Bitcoin market collapsing is pretty slim at thispoint.nd the prices per difficulty are beginning to stabilize.

[EETanner]

What if BF are just promising these returns to keep people out of the market so they can continue with the current difficulty?

[moonpie]

I have been happy with the mining I've been doing with a bfl minirig.  Even though the ASIC miners will render my minirig obsolete, I embrace the innovation.  I'm also on the preorder list for new ASICs when they ship in early December.