Do you think BFL will hit their claimed 1Gh/J efficiency?

[Shadow383]

So, do you think BFL will hit their oddly rounded target of 1Gh/s per watt?
We've heard a lot of power estimates from other ASIC manufacturers that are mostly in the range of 200-500Mh/J, with BFL claiming 1000Mh/J, do you think they'll hit this, or is it all likely to turn out incorrect like the early "1000Mh/s @ 20W" estimates from the original BFL single?

Just curious to find out what the community thinks - personally I don't take issue with the idea that BFL will come out with the most power efficient product (they've had more money to throw at the problem than anyone else for starters) but given that the last lot of estimates they made from simulations gave a claimed efficiency of five times what was achieved with the final product I'm somewhat skeptical. Will be interested to see what happens with the BTCFPGA products - supposedly molex powered, implying a limit of ~110W @ 54Gh/s unless they're using multiple plugs, so if BFL can produce a product slightly more efficient they may well hit their numbers.
I've also made up a quick bet if anyone wants to put their money where their mouth is over this:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=782

[1713879298]

1713879298

[1713879298]

1713879298

[hamdi]

if they deliver..

[Shadow383]

if they deliver..

Naturally.
They might not deliver before 2013, but I happen to think they'll ship something 

[BlackHeartFund]

I would bet no in 2013.

[VeeMiner]

I hope they will...

[bobitza]

So, do you think BFL will hit their oddly rounded target of 1Gh/s per watt?

And you really needed another topic to ask this question?

[Shadow383]

So, do you think BFL will hit their oddly rounded target of 1Gh/s per watt?

And you really needed another topic to ask this question?

I was curious to know what public opinion was - guess it's "I don't give a flying fuck" 

[Fiyasko]

Im a guy who preordered a Jalapeno, I Harshly doubt it will have such efficiency, And i do not care, I just Need Dat Speed to compete

[scrybe]

At this point, I think they know well enough that Josh would have shut the heck up about it.

Instead he got more confrontational (IMHO, maybe it was just a bad day) which would point towards increased confidence.

Within 10% at least, he was willing to stake BTC1000 on it!

FYI, all haters that think BFL is going to skip town or other complete fail should be answering "#DIV/0!"

[abracadabra]

No

[quasarbtc]

Perhaps. There is a lot of hot air going around if they do not.

[MrTeal]

Probably. BFL seems to be better funded than the other ASIC developers. Given the power claims we're seeing out of 110/130nm, I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see 1Gh/J out of something like 65nm with a full custom design.

[ARapalo]

Nope, won't happen. Could have claimed anything since there are no proof of these ASICs even existing yet.