Bitcoin Forum
December 14, 2017, 02:14:23 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Happy halving day  (Read 28698 times)
helloworld
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
November 09, 2012, 02:34:13 AM
 #61

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

2 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes Smiley
"If you don't want people to know you're a scumbag then don't be a scumbag." -- margaritahuyan
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1513260863
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513260863

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513260863
Reply with quote  #2

1513260863
Report to moderator
1513260863
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513260863

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513260863
Reply with quote  #2

1513260863
Report to moderator
1513260863
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513260863

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513260863
Reply with quote  #2

1513260863
Report to moderator
Frequency
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 523


sheeople @COINDERdotCOM


View Profile WWW
November 09, 2012, 12:27:53 PM
 #62

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

2 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes Smiley


yeah i am getting excited ...  Grin

Put your money were your mouth is…       #coinderdotcom
Herodes
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868


View Profile
November 09, 2012, 03:11:17 PM
 #63

Sorry about my ignorance, but how exactly do we determine when it happens ?

I take it is on a set block number ? So if it's block n that's the deal, then we sit with the champagne glasses at n-1 and just wait for n, and once n comes we can all say cheers and start jumping, is that right ?
crazy_rabbit
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1176


RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME


View Profile
November 09, 2012, 05:03:15 PM
 #64

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

2 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes Smiley


already?!?! So soon!

more or less retired.
odolvlobo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1974



View Profile
November 10, 2012, 02:46:37 AM
 #65

Sorry about my ignorance, but how exactly do we determine when it happens ?

I take it is on a set block number ? So if it's block n that's the deal, then we sit with the champagne glasses at n-1 and just wait for n, and once n comes we can all say cheers and start jumping, is that right ?

Yes.  Block 210,000 is the first block of the halved reward. The time it will be produced looks like 11/28, or possibly 11/27. Since the time to produce a block is random (but is usually close to 10 minutes), a more exact time cannot be predicted at this point.

Buy bitcoins with cash from somebody near you: LocalBitcoins
Join an anti-signature campaign: DannyHamilton's ignore list
strideynet
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 261


View Profile
November 10, 2012, 08:08:30 AM
 #66

Make sure it's near a cliff. If value drops we all jump Smiley
Frequency
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 523


sheeople @COINDERdotCOM


View Profile WWW
November 10, 2012, 11:54:24 AM
 #67

Make sure it's near a cliff. If value drops we all jump Smiley

if value drops i put al my money into buying knowing almost for sure it will go up again soon...hahaa cheerzz Cheesy Wink Wink

Put your money were your mouth is…       #coinderdotcom
BitCoiner2012
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364



View Profile
November 10, 2012, 12:51:26 PM
 #68

Will definitely try to celebrate this locally, like the idea!

BTC Long.
ildubbioso
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 389



View Profile
November 10, 2012, 12:56:47 PM
 #69

the countdown will be interesting

ten blocks . . . . . . . . .
nine blocks . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .  . . .
one block . . . .

Happy Halving Day!!

Ente
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2076



View Profile
November 11, 2012, 01:24:32 PM
 #70

the countdown will be interesting

ten blocks . . . . . . . . .
nine blocks . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .  . . .
one block . . . .

Happy Halving Day!!



..with totally random waiting times in between!
Will you be able to have a beer in between each block? How will you divide the "10 minutes", drink it all as fast as possible, or be slow and hope you have those 10 mins? I see some fun block-games coming! :-)

Ente
kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2296


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
November 18, 2012, 09:05:21 PM
 #71

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

This diff is currently only running 1.9% fast. (with very close to 4.5days to go at 1.9%)

Then 2 weeks with anywhere from -2% to 10% adjustment on that
(well that's what I guess - and in that range my guess is 4%) or between 342.7 hrs and 302.4 hrs or 4% = 322.6 hrs

Then another 337 blocks after that ... I'll go the same range -2% to 10% (and guess 4%) so between 57.3 and 56.6 hrs or 4% = 53.9 hrs

So on those figures - with it now 8-Nov 05:15 UTC (oh another block just came in I'll ignore it Tongue)

I get my guess of: between 29 Nov 9:15 UTC (-2%)  and  27 Nov 16:15 UTC (10%)
Or my 4% guess = 28 Nov 9:45 UTC (4%)

Smiley
With about 10 days to go Smiley

Amusing that the last diff did actually finish on 1.9%

So based on it now being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC (though it's tomorrow here Smiley)

Current Difficulty of the 870 blocks so far in this last difficulty change before halving is -1.4% ... still JUST inside my rather large -2% to 10% range
(Yeah looks like it won't be anywhere near 10% but I'll leave that as the top value anyway)

However, I'll drop my 4% guess now down to 2% for the remainder of this difficulty + the 337 blocks until halving.

So again with the range -2% to 10% and 1146 blocks until the last diff change:
Between 194.8 and 171.9 hours (or 2% = 187.2 hrs)

Then another 337 blocks after that ... -2% to 10% (and now guess 2%):
so between 57.3 and 50.6 hrs (or 2% = 55.0 hrs)

So again based on it being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC and block 208517
So between 29-Nov 09:06 UTC (-2%) and 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (10%)
Or my new 2% guess 28-Nov 23:12 UTC

Edit: hmm - that 337 range is wrong, 10% is 50.6 (I typed 56.6) - never noticed the mistake before either - corrected now.
That meant the 10% is 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (not 28-Nov 09:30 UTC)

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
FreeNode IRC: irc.freenode.net channel #kano.is Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
goldlyre
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 590



View Profile
November 18, 2012, 10:39:44 PM
 #72

Can I?

                               
           ░▓█████████████████▓░
          ▒▓██▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▒▓▒▒▒██▓▒░
      ░▒▓███▓                 ▒██▓▓▒░░    ░
▓▒███████▓▒        ░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░    ░▓▓▓██▓▓▓▒▓
▒░██▒░░         ▒▓▓▓▓▒▒▒▒▓▓██▓▒     ░ ▒▓▓░▓
░▒▓█▒         ▒█▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓▓████▓▓▒   ▒█▓▒▒
 ▒░██        ██▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒▒░██▒   ██▒▒
 ▓░▓█▒      ██▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒░░▒▒▒░░▒▓██▓   ▒██░▒
 ░▓░█▓     ▓█▓▒░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░░░▒▒▓▓▓▓▓▒   ██░▓░
  ▓▒▒█▓  ▓▒█▓▒▒▓▓▒░▒░░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒ █▒  ██▓░▓
   █░▒█▓ ▓███▓▒▒░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░ ▓█  ██▓ ▓
    █░▓█▓ ░██▓███▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒▒▓██  ██▓░▓
    ░█░▒██  ░ ░▓███████▓██████▒  ██▒░▓
      █▒░██▓      ░▒▒▓▓▓▓▒▒░   ▓██░▒▓
       ▓▓░▒██▒               ▒██▓░▓▓
        ░█▓░▓██▒           ▒██▓░▓█░
          ▒█▓░▓██▓       ▓██▓▒▓█▒
            ▒█▓▒▒███░ ▒███▒▒▓█▒
              ▒██▓▒▓███▓▒▒██▒
                ░▓██▒▒▒███░
                   ▒███▒














marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2464



View Profile
November 22, 2012, 04:17:53 AM
 #73

So anyone know why bitcoinwatch and bitcoincharts are saying next difficulty change at 209,664 blocks ... I thought the halving and next difficulty change co-incided, i.e. 210,000?

http://www.bitcoinwatch.com/

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

EDIT: evidently they don't coincide ... my mistake, just had always assumed they would ... the next difficulty change will be the 104th and the block reward halving will occur 336 blocks after that change and 1680 blocks before the 105th difficulty change ... as you were, no need to panic.  Wink

justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
November 22, 2012, 04:31:18 AM
 #74

I've just started keeping track so I don't have many data points yet but I have a simple approximation based on current block and time between blocks as reported on blockchain.info.

So far my estimate falls in a six hour window on the 28th between 14:30 and 20:30 UTC.
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2464



View Profile
November 22, 2012, 04:43:26 AM
 #75

I've just started keeping track so I don't have many data points yet but I have a simple approximation based on current block and time between blocks as reported on blockchain.info.

So far my estimate falls in a six hour window on the 28th between 14:30 and 20:30 UTC.

umm, simple approx. says about 6 days, 16.6 hours from nowish ... so 2100 28.11.12 UTC ... roughly speaking?

justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
November 22, 2012, 04:51:14 AM
 #76

umm, simple approx. says about 6 days, 16.6 hours from nowish ... so 2100 28.11.12 UTC ... roughly speaking?
That's a reflection of how much noise is in the data, that it changed that much between when I posted and when you posted.
justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
November 25, 2012, 05:30:56 PM
 #77

This is a chart of my naive, semi-random sampling of blockchain info:

kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2296


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
November 25, 2012, 05:51:31 PM
 #78

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

This diff is currently only running 1.9% fast. (with very close to 4.5days to go at 1.9%)

Then 2 weeks with anywhere from -2% to 10% adjustment on that
(well that's what I guess - and in that range my guess is 4%) or between 342.7 hrs and 302.4 hrs or 4% = 322.6 hrs

Then another 337 blocks after that ... I'll go the same range -2% to 10% (and guess 4%) so between 57.3 and 56.6 hrs or 4% = 53.9 hrs

So on those figures - with it now 8-Nov 05:15 UTC (oh another block just came in I'll ignore it Tongue)

I get my guess of: between 29 Nov 9:15 UTC (-2%)  and  27 Nov 16:15 UTC (10%)
Or my 4% guess = 28 Nov 9:45 UTC (4%)

Smiley
With about 10 days to go Smiley

Amusing that the last diff did actually finish on 1.9%

So based on it now being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC (though it's tomorrow here Smiley)

Current Difficulty of the 870 blocks so far in this last difficulty change before halving is -1.4% ... still JUST inside my rather large -2% to 10% range
(Yeah looks like it won't be anywhere near 10% but I'll leave that as the top value anyway)

However, I'll drop my 4% guess now down to 2% for the remainder of this difficulty + the 337 blocks until halving.

So again with the range -2% to 10% and 1146 blocks until the last diff change:
Between 194.8 and 171.9 hours (or 2% = 187.2 hrs)

Then another 337 blocks after that ... -2% to 10% (and now guess 2%):
so between 57.3 and 50.6 hrs (or 2% = 55.0 hrs)

So again based on it being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC and block 208517
So between 29-Nov 09:06 UTC (-2%) and 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (10%)
Or my new 2% guess 28-Nov 23:12 UTC

Edit: hmm - that 337 range is wrong, 10% is 50.6 (I typed 56.6) - never noticed the mistake before either - corrected now.
That meant the 10% is 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (not 28-Nov 09:30 UTC)
Time to do one last guess? Smiley

With 127 blocks to go until the last diff change - difficulkty is showing 1.16% - not majorly different to my 2% guess - but still a bit lower.

Now lets say it is 25-Nov 17:45 now

At 1.2% that will put the last difficulty change (before halving) at 20.9 hours from now or roughly 20hrs 55 minutes.

Or 26-Nov 14:40 for the next diff change

Then add another 337 blocks at between -2% and 10% (or using the current diff value of 1.2%)

That gives between 50.6 and 57.3 hours after that - or between 28-Nov 17:16 and 28-Nov 23:58

But using the 1.2% number we get: 28-Nov 22:10

Hmm all my numbers are on the 28th now (UTC) Smiley

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
FreeNode IRC: irc.freenode.net channel #kano.is Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
kwoody
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 454


Technology and Women. Amazing.


View Profile
November 27, 2012, 08:17:23 PM
 #79

Less than 24 hours till halving...value better go up, i'm feeling particularly lazy this week and don't want to dismantle rigs quite yet..
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2464



View Profile
November 27, 2012, 08:29:18 PM
 #80

Less than 24 hours till halving...value better go up, i'm feeling particularly lazy this week and don't want to dismantle rigs quite yet..

I'm betting it will actually drop, quite markedly too. Reasoning being a "buy the rumour, sell the news" effect. With so much speculative money in bitcoin a good portion has come in to profit from the "halving" phenomena. This money will take profits after the halving (I think they are already doing this for the last few days) .... I'm expecting to drop more and probably it will be a while before the long term effect of the decreased inflation works its way through to the supply/demand equation.

Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!