[Poll] When will block reward half?

[CrazyGuy]

With an average of 138 blocks a day we are looking at sometime around December 1st. When do you think it will happen?

[1714928320]

1714928320

[1714928320]

1714928320

[1714928320]

1714928320

[1714928320]

1714928320

[Owndapwn]

Hey, noob here.

What would this do to the value of coins? I have ~2.7 coins (Can hit three by morning or noon tomorrow).
Sell or keep?
What with this 25 coin blocks I've heard about and the ASIC's, will coins be worth more or less later on?
'Cause I can see it a couple ways, just based on real world economy stuff.

First, ignoring the 25 coin blocks, value spikes down for a week to two weeks before climbing up and stabilizing at around 175-300% of what value is now.
The trade off would be the payout rate would be lower due to higher difficulty. So basically, close to the same rate in USD per (unit of time), but you get larger, less frequent pay-outs.

Second, with the 25 coin blocks. The lower block requirement allows solo miners to dominate the market, since it would mean it would be less than eight months for payout with a Jalapeno or similar, which lowers pool reliability, and potentially cuts out a sizable portion of the lower-end miners. Part-time gamers with one or two GPU's that they run at night and during work/school to fund more games (Like me) would walk away before putting more wear on their system since it won't be worth it.

Last guess is that the system is not prepared for such a large power increase and will tank down to about that of the USD (I'd say $2-3) for a few months before rising back to about ~$15 after many people stop mining. However, if people are still making money (Even a little) and aren't being inconvenienced, they'll likely keep their ASIC running, so it could bottom out and stay there, which, provided the coins come faster, is perfectly fine.
A chicken is worth a chicken, whether you value it at $35 USD or 200 CNY.

Keep in mind these principals might not apply for BTC, but are as good a guess as any, based on much of the confusion surrounding the ASIC's.

[Korbman]

What would this do to the value of coins? I have ~2.7 coins (Can hit three by morning or noon tomorrow).
Sell or keep?

Keep. Or invest

What with this 25 coin blocks I've heard about and the ASIC's, will coins be worth more or less later on?

Speculation is pointed toward "worth more".

First, ignoring the 25 coin blocks, value spikes down for a week to two weeks before climbing up and stabilizing at around 175-300% of what value is now.
The trade off would be the payout rate would be lower due to higher difficulty. So basically, close to the same rate in USD per (unit of time), but you get larger, less frequent pay-outs.

So, I've read this statement a number of times and I'm not entirely sure what you're assuming. Payout rate would be lower due to higher difficulty? Larger, less frequent payouts? 

Second, with the 25 coin blocks. The lower block requirement allows solo miners to dominate the market, since it would mean it would be less than eight months for payout with a Jalapeno or similar, which lowers pool reliability, and potentially cuts out a sizable portion of the lower-end miners. Part-time gamers with one or two GPU's that they run at night and during work/school to fund more games (Like me) would walk away before putting more wear on their system since it won't be worth it.

A split in the reward (from 50 to 25) doesn't correlate to block "requirements"...that's where difficulty comes in. Everything about mining bitcoins will be exactly the same as it is now, except instead of receiving 50 Bitcoins when you find a block, you get 25 instead.

Last guess is that the system is not prepared for such a large power increase and will tank down to about that of the USD (I'd say $2-3) for a few months before rising back to about ~$15 after many people stop mining. However, if people are still making money (Even a little) and aren't being inconvenienced, they'll likely keep their ASIC running, so it could bottom out and stay there, which, provided the coins come faster, is perfectly fine.
A chicken is worth a chicken, whether you value it at $35 USD or 200 CNY.

The opposite actually. The "system" is very much prepared (and lustfully anticipating) the large power increase. The price won't get lower than it is now unless large sums of bitcoins are dumped into markets...and then those of us on the forums will spend time buying them all back up


Overall, you're missing out on quite a substantial bit of information. I'd suggest searching and reading through the majority of Mining Speculation and Economic Speculation posts...they'll have answers to pretty much all of your questions.

[odolvlobo]

The Bitcoin clock (http://bitcoinclock.com) says 2012-11-29 04:46:31. It looks like less people have been mining these last couple weeks.

[Fcx35x10]

The Bitcoin clock (http://bitcoinclock.com) says 2012-11-29 04:46:31. It looks like less people have been mining these last couple weeks.

perhaps a lot of miners are selling their gpus

[Cablez]

As of right now its 542 blocks away.  Looks like a little over 4 days so........Nov. 28th/29th

[CoinHoarder]

As of right now its 542 blocks away.  Looks like a little over 4 days so........Nov. 28th/29th

 

[Cablez]

430 and the good days are gone!!!!!!!!!!!

[chewie]

I think that the block halving will happen around Tuesday(11/27/12).

[bcpokey]

I think that the block halving will happen around Tuesday(11/27/12).

Difficulty is notching up slightly in 60 blocks (in about 9 hours, 4:30am PST 11/26/12), which is likely to slightly slow blockrate, after which there will be 336 blocks left, at ~6blocks / hr, will be about 56hours, or 2 1/3rd days, so likely about Noon on 11/28/12. But it's not very impressive predicting that with so few blocks left

[ewhenn]

I'll still be profitable even after the halving.  Go from making ~$4.50 a day after power to $1.90 a day though, at least at current exchange rates.

My GPUs will be profitable right up until ASICs launch.

[Epoch]

I'll still be profitable even after the halving.  Go from making ~$4.50 a day after power to $1.90 a day though, at least at current exchange rates.

My GPUs will be profitable right up until ASICs launch.

I was curious about your numbers; they suggest you pay $0.70 a day for power, on a gross profit of $5.20 (a 13% operating loss). That is excellent efficiency for a GPU miner.

My FPGA miners have a 6% loss (electricity is $0.08/kWh for me), so your GPUs aren't that far off with 13%.

[Cablez]

230 and tick tick ticking away!!

[niko]

[Korbman]

Well that's pretty handy. Tomorrow (11/28) at 2pm EST is the predicted split...though if the hash rate keeps increasing it could come a bit sooner.

[AngelusWebDesign]

I'll still be profitable even after the halving.  Go from making ~$4.50 a day after power to $1.90 a day though, at least at current exchange rates.

My GPUs will be profitable right up until ASICs launch.

I was curious about your numbers; they suggest you pay $0.70 a day for power, on a gross profit of $5.20 (a 13% operating loss). That is excellent efficiency for a GPU miner.

My FPGA miners have a 6% loss (electricity is $0.08/kWh for me), so your GPUs aren't that far off with 13%.

Which is a nice way of saying...

BS!

[Cablez]

125 to go!!!!!!!!!!!

[Korbman]

9 blocks to go...at this rate, just over an hour away to the split. See you guys on the other side! 

[bowen151]

209992 - solved by metabank.ru

whos next?

[Cablez]

Countdown time:  4 blocks to go........