Diff thread Oct 1 to Oct 14 picks are Closed. 2x bonus! + a surprise?

[philipma1957]

I will add a surprise  bonus to the winner of this round.  So 0.2 btc and a surprise makes it a round to win.


new thread picks open in a day or so.  link to the old one is here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1183709.0


we have a 2x bonus due to edonkey and his cats thanks.  prize will be 0.20 btc!

we made 159  153  blocks on oct 1
that is 15    9 over but about ⅝ was on the last diff so we are maybe 4 over early in the game




.https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+3.66%)
 

with 1941 to go so we have made 75 blocks.  

remember picks start block 300.  this is same as block 1716  to go.  

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9 ___---------  about + 4 for this adjustment period.   
10/2/2015
10/3/2015
10/4/2015

[notlist3d]

The interesting thing about this time period is it currently being a holiday in China.  I was surprised to see 3-4 percent.  I was hoping that we might see even smaller as no new miners should be built during this period.

And I could be a idiot and bitmain might be filling up S7's in a data center during the holiday to test.  Just waiting till after holiday to ship.  Not sure what to think with current difficulty.

[d57heinz]

The interesting thing about this time period is it currently being a holiday in China.  I was surprised to see 3-4 percent.  I was hoping that we might see even smaller as no new miners should be built during this period.

And I could be a idiot and bitmain might be filling up S7's in a data center during the holiday to test.  Just waiting till after holiday to ship.  Not sure what to think with current difficulty.

its making me think back to that thread i posted about the 100 peta jump.. just wonder if they decided to ease it in rather than dump it on all at once.. looks like another 10 peta online at f2pool.  seems maybe they are either expanding or someone using there pool to test new hw possibly..     F2Pool   24.16 %   108.05 PHs  src.. https://chain.btc.com/en/stats/pool?pool_mode=day  again reason i dont think its variance is i dont see antpool jump 10 -15 peta up and down with variance.. Maybe just a couple at most.. 

Best Regards
d57heinz

[zebedee]

Lulz, blockr.io has:
   
Next difficulty (estimate)
51,384,481,271.24

-15.50% change to current
1933 blocks until difficulty changes

[philipma1957]

Lulz, blockr.io has:
   
Next difficulty (estimate)
51,384,481,271.24

-15.50% change to current
1933 blocks until difficulty changes

I would like to see that.

[EternalWingsofGod]

Lulz, blockr.io has:
   
Next difficulty (estimate)
51,384,481,271.24

-15.50% change to current
1933 blocks until difficulty changes

I had to read that twice to make sure I saw correctly
If only that would happen
And props to donkey for bragging rights and a cat that can predict bitcoin difficulty, I guess I haven't seen it all

[Mikestang]

The interesting thing about this time period is it currently being a holiday in China.  I was surprised to see 3-4 percent.  I was hoping that we might see even smaller as no new miners should be built during this period.

And I could be a idiot and bitmain might be filling up S7's in a data center during the holiday to test.  Just waiting till after holiday to ship.  Not sure what to think with current difficulty.

Mostly everyone expected the last adjustment period to be a much larger gain, will this be the one that we were afraid of?  I wonder how many S7s Bitmain is keeping for themselves vs. selling to the public.  Maybe they are replacing hash for hash rather than machine for machine and becoming more efficient (lower power costs, more profits) without unnecessarily increasing difficulty?  Could be a viable plan to maximize income by minimizing expenses rather than brute force hash increase.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom slowly going down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:    62,717,302,528 (+3.13%)
Adjust time:    After 1837 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):    439,673,341 GH/s

Hopefully this continues over next few day's.  I really want to see a 2 percent change again.

[notlist3d]

Night bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    60,813,224,039
Estimated Next Difficulty:    62,647,168,085 (+3.02%)
Adjust time:    After 1799 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    435,821,900 GH/s

So went down slightly from earlier today. Price really 237-238 most of day.  We really have been pretty steady on price for a week or so.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9 ___---------  about + 4 for this adjustment period.  
10/2/2015    130 ------------   -14                      so as of 11 pm we are about a - 10
10/3/2015
10/4/2015

we have made 217 blocks we should be 231  so the real time number = (-6.06%)

frankly pretty far away from bitcoinwisdom.  but the Chinese holiday must have lowered some hashing a lot.

My guess is we pick up on Tues or Weds.

[mavericklm]

bitcoinwisdom.com   62698580608   3.1%
bitcoincharts.com   60674559397   -0.2%
mining-profit.com   54731901635   -10%
 

negative for sure?

[philipma1957]

bitcoinwisdom.com   62698580608   3.1%
bitcoincharts.com   60674559397   -0.2%
mining-profit.com   54731901635   -10%
 

negative for sure?

No but we can hope for a negative.  picks will open sat morning in 10-12 hours or so.  we have 221 in and 79 to go.

[notlist3d]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10/1/2015    153------------   + 9 ___---------  about + 4 for this adjustment period.  
10/2/2015    130 ------------   -14                      so as of 11 pm we are about a - 10
10/3/2015
10/4/2015

we have made 217 blocks we should be 231  so the real time number = (-6.06%)

frankly pretty far away from bitcoinwisdom.  but the Chinese holiday must have lowered some hashing a lot.

My guess is we pick up on Tues or Weds.

That is pretty amazing.   Wow that is a complete change on hashing.   Guess we can hope for more Chinese holiday's to help hash.

Sadly after holiday I have a feeling next batch's of S7 will be coming pretty soon.   Assuming it all works right for them.  Which we know it was not 100 percent since they had some gear not hit the right hash.

[d57heinz]

block 301.  thread not officially open   i did calcs and thought it would be more closer to 9 am in midwest but we had a bit of a slow down it seems.. 

(3.51% - 3.75%) My guess

Best Regards
d57heinz

[Biodom]

well, if I may (as it is >300 objectively)

+3.26 to +3.50 please

If i was too early, sorry.

[suchmoon]

well, if I may (as it is >300 objectively)

+3.26 to +3.50 please

If i was too early, sorry.

I'm sure you're fine.

There is a fairly steep drop in hashrate right now but we had that at the beginning of the previous period too. A lot can still change in the next 12 days.

[edonkey]

So are picks open?

If so, the other cat says +2.26% to +2.50%.

Not very original. She's copying her brother.

That's right. She's a copycat.

[wlefever]

I'll go with my same pick from last week +3.01% to +3.25% for me please, thanks!

[suchmoon]

So are picks open?

If so, the other cat says +2.26% to +2.50%.

Not very original. She's copying her brother.

That's right. She's a copycat.

Yes, d57heinz, Biodom and the copycat should be good according to Phil's 300-block rule. I'm sure he'll update the thread title as soon as he gets from whatever people do on weekends


+2.26% to +2.50%  edonkey's copycat


+3.01% to +3.25%  wlefever
+3.26% to +3.50%  Biodom
+3.51% to +3.75%  d57heinz