Following on from the Trust list visualisations thread and the ethics consultation thread, I've decided to release the analysis of a tool which may be able to identify multiple accounts which belong to the same owner. While some of the results are statistically significant, this should still only constitute one piece of evidence of a link between accounts.

The methodology is less important than the output, which can be confirmed and visualised manually.

• The addition of "DefaultTrust" is excluded and not counted
• Trust lists with only "DefaultTrust" (unedited) are not included
• The polarity of ratings is taken into account
• Certain users like KWH have giant trust lists and so they break the system a bit. Should be excluded

Along with potentially linked accounts, the list below has 2 numerical metrics attached:

• Complexity: A measure of how complicated the trust lists being looked at are. The scale is a bit weird in this version, starting at 0.3 for 1 item and going up by 0.3 for each additional item
• Similarity: A measure of how similar trust lists between the users are. 1.0 = identical lists, anything below 0.8 is discarded for now but there are many positive results from this range to be reviewed later.

This list is considered low probability. It really doesn't mean much without a lot of other information in order to confirm a link.

Person A	Person B	Similarity	Complexity	Person A's Trust List	Person B's Trust List
______________________	______________________	___________	___________	__________________________________________________	__________________________________________________
CPNpr	solidvip	0.62	3.31	neg_Vod&neg_Tomatocage&Antuam&neg_xetsr&neg_cyclops&neg_randombit&neg_BrianM&… nM&neg_Memminger&neg_quasimodo&neg_PolyCoin-Team&solidvip&RentCute.com&Susi.D&ne	neg_Tomatocage&neg_xetsr&neg_cyclops&CPNpr
bitcoinplaza	ZuonKing	0.75	1.95	theymos&HostFat&paci&Stemby&ziomik&ercolinux&diego1000&bertani	HostFat&paci&ziomik&diego1000&ghibly79
MiningBuddy	nimda	0.74	1.20	CanaryInTheMine&BadBitcoin (James Sutton)	dooglus&John (John K.)&Bees Brothers&BadBitcoin (James Sutton)&IveBeenBit&Kouye
CyberRat	Jansen227	0.72	0.90	PsychoticBoy&Jouke&Mitchełł	PsychoticBoy&dnaleor&Mitchełł
djcoin	Tak	0.67	2.85	Gavin Andresen&Luke-Jr&Carnth&SebastianJu&-ck&Vod&John (John K.)&kano&Tomatoc… tocage&Xian01&burnside&crashoveride54902&klondike_bar	theymos&Gavin Andresen&gmaxwell&-ck&kano&burnside
Shadow_Runner	XVzN	0.67	0.90	neg_xetsr&sandy-is-fine	nish2011&jaydipm&sandy-is-fine&kenscho
galbros	micky123	0.66	2.25	dooglus&Stunna&dogedice.me	theymos&dooglus&Vod&Tomatocage&BadBear&omahapoker&antonlevay&dogedice.me&Samp… amperio&neg_SarcasmMe&neg_detective2015&v1rtu0so
danielpbarron	pummle	0.66	3.61	nanotube&davout&Stephen Gornick&kakobrekla&Azelphur&pankkake&Immuzikation&dpb… dpb&GlooBoy&MPOE-PR&BCB&TheButterZone&Atruk&nubbins&fluffypony&railzand&NotLambc	davout&Tomatocage&MPOE-PR&BCB&ThickAsThieves&fluffypony
Foofighter	thomashrev89	0.66	1.95	allinvain&PsychoticBoy&Akka&puffmais&intron&blackarrow&Menig&paul3&itxtutor&c… r&cscape	friedcat&intron&cscape
maxpower	Polyatomic	0.65	2.10	CanaryInTheMine&John (John K.)&Entropy-uc&JCDenton	Graet&CanaryInTheMine&John (John K.)&Maidak&dadj&Augusto Croppo&pidge&J.Socal… cal&Entropy-uc&QuiveringGibbage
bitcoinplaza	U1TRA_L0RD	0.63	4.81	theymos&HostFat&paci&Stemby&ziomik&ercolinux&diego1000&bertani	theymos&Keefe&MagicalTux&mikegogulski&casascius&Luke-Jr&dooglus&Raize&Maged&S… d&Stemby&ziomik&John (John K.)&ercolinux&ngzhang&legolouman&xiangfu&diego1000&ga
Kouye	Muhammed Zakir	0.63	10.38	Maged&tysat&jackjack&malevolent&Vod&Tomatocage&SaltySpitoon&MPOE-PR&DannyHami… amilton	satoshi&sirius&theymos&Gavin Andresen&neg_Luke-Jr&dooglus&Maged&gmaxwell&tysa… ysat&dserrano5&OgNasty&-ck&jackjack&malevolent&neg_JoelKatz&paraipan&Vod&John (J
Korbman	lnternet	0.62	1.20	theymos&lightbox	lightbox&TwinWinNerD&Craftyman&DeathAndTaxes&quarzazatete&djingodjango
fronti	trasla	0.62	1.50	gmaxwell&2weiX&yxt&qwk&Akka&sacko&twbt	phantastisch&qwk&Akka
Atruk	Peter Lambert	0.60	1.65	Gavin Andresen&kakobrekla&Micon&pankkake&greyhawk&rini17&MPOE-PR&DannyHamilto… lton&ThickAsThieves	MPOE-PR&BCB
ahmedbodi	VERUMinNUMERIS	0.56	1.95	ahmed_bodi&mrbodi	markm&frobley&kelsey&ahmed_bodi&deadsea33&Vlad2Vlad&Dexter44&cinnamon_carter&… er&IXC2XIC&mrcashking&SolomonRising
aminorex	eizh	0.55	3.01	Anon136&dooglus&gmaxwell&smooth&tacotime&rpietila&David Latapie&fluffypony&Bi… &BitChick&xulescu&eizh&othe&NoodleDoodle&papa_lazzarou&CTTE&GingerAle	smooth&fluffypony&jayaitch&NoodleDoodle
alka66	ZuonKing	0.55	1.65	HostFat&paci&ziomik&MirkoIta&alexrossi&cryptobtcx	HostFat&paci&ziomik&diego1000&ghibly79
elasticband	Weppel	0.55	2.70	Mabsark&bbxx&friedcat&PsychoticBoy&Rampion&corrow&michaelangelo&600watt&EnJoy… JoyThis&gidi337&btcapparel&stevenf&aphorise&Fireblade&MisterLG	PsychoticBoy&EnJoyThis&elasticband
DrahogErusiel	El Extranjero	0.54	1.80	TECSHARE&John (John K.)&Mushroomized&SaltySpitoon&dozerz&lukemarshall&The 4ne… 4ner&Nightowlace&El Extranjero&jakedeez	The 4ner&DrahogErusiel
edn247	neleonele	0.54	1.20	Biomech&presstab&cecilbdemented	thundertoe&Biomech&batesresearch&presstab&shavers
DiThi	edd	0.53	1.35	theymos&Rassah&Wolf0&ReCat	SgtSpike&Rassah&Phinnaeus Gage&DeathAndTaxes&ReCat
hamza171	sorryforthat	0.53	1.35	alani123&shdvb&ChiliPowder&CoolRunnings21&Quickseller	OgNasty&BadBear&ChiliPowder&Quickseller
PurePwnage	Susi.D	0.52	1.20	neg_Blazr&neg_aa&neg_MRKLYE	neg_Vod&neg_MRKLYE&neg_goodnightcoin&neg_ABitNut&neg_Bitcoin-Police
albertin	arulbero	0.85	1.35	mars78&ghibly79	HostFat&kelpy&GIANNAT&bertani&Pitchotto&mars78&ghibly79
Indicators	MarketMagic	0.85	1.35	egghead123&logocreator	mammix2&egghead123&oldnoob&BitcoinPlusBus&jjmv&logocreator&tellitlikeitis
BitcoinPlusBus	Indicators	0.87	1.05	mammix2&egghead123&oldnoob&jjmv&logocreator	egghead123&logocreator
albertin	kelpy	0.86	1.05	mars78&ghibly79	alexrossi&mars78&ghibly79&marnem&Anon39
thedreamer	transcyberian	0.89	0.90	philipma1957&727miner	starsoccer9&philipma1957&727miner&nicehash
CyberRat	dnaleor	0.93	0.75	PsychoticBoy&Jouke&Mitchełł	PsychoticBoy&Mitchełł
bitcoinplusorg	Indicators	0.83	1.95	satoshi&Eric&SunnyKing&mindfox&mdtspain&dasource&mammix2&egghead123&oldnoob&j… b&jjmv&logocreator	egghead123&logocreator
mrmueller	trasla	0.86	1.80	phantastisch&SebastianJu&qwk&mameise&Akka&Aggrophobia&trepex&Menig&darkfriend77	phantastisch&qwk&Akka

Visualisation of the 1st and 2nd batches of names:

• Red'er names = larger potential alt network
• blue'er = smaller protential alt network
• Red edges (joining lines) = stronger trust list association
• blue = weak trust list association

 

I won't post in the other thread to say that I support this (since it would be a useless post) and you've already posted the tool. The analysis and system used is actually very interesting to say at least. This might also be the tipping stone in some cases where it was already 'probable' that X was alt of Y.
Let me get this straight, so users without edited lists are completely excluded? I used to have an alt (I doubt that anyone besides an admin even knew about it) with a unedited list. This means that you could to identify that account as my probable alt, correct?

I miss those Butterfly Labs folks... I wonder if any of them has been hit by a bus / random falling space debris, or have come down with some painful incurable affliction since they left the forums.

http://ia802308.us.archive.org/32/items/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531.docket.html

bcp19, Inaba, and SLok, y u no post any more ?

Yeah I think that's the main use of this. "Hmm just scambusted that guy, lets see if he could still be floating about".

I could NOT identify your alt if it had just "DefaultTrust" in its trust list. Accounts with an unedited trust list aren't included in the trustlist dump Theymos provides.


As I said in the other thread, the methodology isn't important on this one as you can do a human check across the two trust lists (I've added a shortened version alongside). Its as accurate as you want it to be and could be entirely useless in some cases but pretty strong in others.

Interesting and watching

No it doesn't although its worth remembering this is trust lists, not trust ratings. Being trusted by multiple people is hard to factor in although it could be used as an end stage check to see if accounts are cross trusting each other.

For the time being I'll be working on visualisation and automation of the interpretation so I don't have to manually review 1,000s of them.

Just to make sure we are on the same page. This is a measure how similar peoples trust lists are as well as a measure how large (as in complex) the average trust list between the two is. complexity(A,B) := [Count(A)*.3 + Count(B)*.3] / 2

It does however not - assuming here, please correct me if Im wrong - take into account how likely it is for someone to end up on a given trust list in the first place. From the trust.txt I downloaded just a few minutes ago I see that - as expected - certain users are more often on someones list than others. You have a top list for this as well IIRC in your other thread. E.g. theymos is on 170 different trust lists, dogie on 34.

I also cant follow the premise that a person would use an identical (or very similar) trust list over multiple accounts.

To sum it up, what makes you draw the conclusion that similarity of trust lists has anything to do with alt accounts?

The closest thing you'll find to this is the Jaccard index.



It does not, that's why I'm manually screening anything I release at the moment, there are plenty of "strong correlation" results I filtered out because they're common results. Depending on how much time I invest in this, I may filter out some of the top people altogether.


They do, because for anyone not in DefaultTrust (99% of people), the only utilisation for their trust list is to show who's ratings they want to see. And regardless of which account they're using those preferences generally remain constant.


Past experience.

Channeling my inner Techshare


Okay so now you've basically proven there are people abusing the DT, what's next?


Are you going to next tell us that people are wrongfully removed from DT because they speak out against injustice?


closing Techshare channel



~BCX~




P.S.  Excellent work Dogie.